汶川Ms8．0地震余震时空变化及影响度分析

本文对汶川Ms8．0地震及其余震的原因进行简要回顾后,根据主震之后至6月2日。时192次Ms4．0以上的余震的统计结果进行时空变化及影响度分析,分别从震型、震源深度、空间位置一震级及影响度、频次一时序和震级一发震时间段四个方面以图表的形式分析阐释余震的发震规律和影响程度。通过本文分析研究,进一步揭示汶川地震整个过程的活动规律,对其后余震的影响进行剖析,进而为在目前全球地质活动活跃期背景下,对中国西部地震灾害环境与可持续发展的研究提供参考意义。     

2008年攀枝花-会理6.1级地震强余震触发

运用Okada方法,计算2008年8月30日攀枝花-会理Ms6.1地震在其强余震Ms5.6破裂面上产生的静态库仑破裂应力变化.结果显示,攀枝花-会理6.1级地震引起的静态库仑破裂应力变化量为0.37MPa,超过"触发阈值",该应力增量可能触发了5.6级地震的发生.     

多源数据联合反演权比确定及玉树地震同震断层滑动分布反演研究

为了更好地研究重力场对地壳形变、活动断层、地震等动力学过程的时变响应,需要建立动态地壳形变模型,研究重力、形变与地震波数据联合反演活动断层参数的相关理论及方法,进行活动断层潜在地震的危险性评估,探讨强震发生的动力学背景。该报告主要介绍两个方面的研究内容:一方面是如何表述反演数据中多源数据的权矩阵,通过引入虚拟观测方程将断层滑动的连续性约束一并纳入观察方程,采用Helmert方差分量估计确定各类观测数据的权比,推导了相关理论公式。另一方面,利用In SAR和GPS资料提取了Iwaki和Kita-Ibarake两个余震区典型余震的同震形变场,以及结合In SAR干涉图形状和方位向偏移量法对发震断层的几何参数进行约束。在此基础上,采用弹性半空间矩形位错模型对这两个强余震的同震滑动分布进行反演,得到的最大滑动量分别为3.28 m和0.98 m。最后利用余震的断层作为接收断层,计算了Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki静态库仑应力对余震作用的大小,结果显示Iwaki和Kita-Ibarake研究区的余震近似为纯正断层类型的浅源地震,静态库仑应力在两个研究区的最大值分别为1.1 MPa和0.7 MPa,表明Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki地震对研究区的余震触发是有促进作用的。     

断层相互作用产生同震库仑应力改变分布图像

讨论了同震库仑应力改变的基本含义,以及基于静应力位错理论求解同震库仑应力改变的边界元方法,对与发震断层相互平行和相互垂直两种典型构造模式下,断层相互作用产生的同震库仑应力改变进行了数值模拟研究,分别获取了相应条件下的同震库仑应力改变空间分布图像.结果表明:不同构造模式的断层相互作用,其产生的同震库仑应力改变分布图像存在较大差异,在分析和评价断层相互作用产生的同震库仑应力改变,及其对活动断层地震危险性的影响时,应该充分考虑待评价断层与发震断层之间的空间几何关系、断层的性质和产状等特定的构造条件.     

四川芦山Ms 7.0级地震导致周边断层的应力变化

 2013年4月20日,四川雅安市芦山县发生M_s 7.0级强烈地震,造成重大的人员伤亡和经济损失。地震造成的区域库仑应力变化、对周围断层的影响及后续地震带发展趋势是应该关注的问题。利用USGS震源机制解,根据地震静态触发原理,基于弹性位错理论和分层地壳模型,计算得出芦山地震引起同震库仑应力变化从断层的1.0MPa量级减小到200km外的0.1kPa,研究认为在地震之后大部分区域的应力得到释放,鲜水河断裂道孚—康定段和玉龙希断裂南段危险性增加。     

基于主余震理论的余震地震动PGA衰减关系研究

为了解余震和主震的相关性,研究余震对建筑结构损伤的影响,文中建立了最大余震和主震地震动参数的数学函数关系,选用752组真实主余震序列,采用多元非线性回归方法,统计回归出地震动衰减关系。结果表明:相对地震动参数和主震矩震级、标准场地剪切波速呈正相关,和主余震震级之比、场地剪切波速之比呈负相关,和主震震源距D_ms的相关性较小。本文模型的预测值在V_S30取值较小时和CY2008模型的预测值较为接近;V_S30取值较大时,本文模型的预测值和AS2008模型的预测值的最大误差仅为5%。本文构建的模型能较好地预测余震相对地震动参数,为地震危险性分析和工程实践提供一定的理论依据。     

岩石破裂过程中声发射模式的数值模拟

利用数值模拟软件RFPA2D对在单轴压缩加载条件下3种不同均质度的岩石试件破裂过程进行了模拟研究,讨论了整个破坏过程中的声发射时间序列和空间分布规律以及相关的震源特征和前兆异常等·实验结果表明,随着均质度的增加,岩石在主破裂之前非线性逐渐减弱而脆性逐渐增强·3个岩石试件的声发射规律分别表现出群震型、前震主震余震型和主震型3种模式,结果和地震观测到的地震模式有很好的一致性     

摩擦系数对支承辊次表层接触疲劳损伤的影响

以正交剪应力作为滚动接触次表层疲劳损伤评价的临界应力,分析了摩擦系数对滚动接触次表层正交剪应力幅及应力比的影响规律.根据疲劳损伤累积理论及非对称循环应力幅修正公式,建立了支承辊次表层接触疲劳应力与寿命计算模型,用于评价支承辊次表层接触疲劳损伤.实例分析了摩擦系数对支承辊次表层接触疲劳损伤的影响,结果表明:随着应力比及摩擦系数增大,支承辊的次表层接触疲劳损伤增大,因此,降低支承辊接触摩擦系数,可改善支承辊的疲劳损伤.     

基于节点汇聚的地震序列分析方法

基于时空影响域方法构造地震网络,结果显示地震网络具有小世界、无标度等复杂网络的一般特征.选取1990年至2010年的四川地震数据进行研究,这些地震大多分布在龙门山断裂带上.对所构造的地震网络进行节点汇聚,得到以节点为单位的地震序列,序列类型为前震-主震-余震型.通过对地震序列的能量变化进行研究发现,能量的变化不具有周期性,而一定大小的时间窗口内的地震能量和的变化具有周期性,且能量中心分布在龙门山断裂带的主中央带上.这些结果说明,基于节点汇聚的地震序列分析方法对于认识地震的发生规律具有重要的意义.     

基于不同构造分区中国地震的潮汐应力触发效应及相关天文特征

将中国大陆划分为不同构造应力分区,针对各构造分区的地震逐个计算其发震时震源处沿主压和主张应力轴方向的潮汐应力分量,分析了潮汐应力对发震断层的触发效应.在此基础上,计算了那些具有潮汐应力触发效应的地震发震时的月日位置,得到了各构造分区与潮汐应力触发相关的月日位置分布图象.结果显示,地震的潮汐应力触发效应及相关的天文特征依赖于地震断层所在的区域构造应力性质和地理位置.     

Decay of aftershock density with distance indicates triggering by dynamic stress

The majority of earthquakes are aftershocks, yet aftershock physics is not well understood. Many studies suggest that static stress changes trigger aftershocks, but recent work suggests that shaking (dynamic stresses) may also play a role. Here we measure the decay of aftershocks as a function of distance from magnitude 2-6 mainshocks in order to clarify the aftershock triggering process. We find that for short times after the mainshock, when low background seismicity rates allow for good aftershock detection, the decay is well fitted by a single inverse power law over distances of 0.2-50 km. The consistency of the trend indicates that the same triggering mechanism is working over the entire range. As static stress changes at the more distant aftershocks are negligible, this suggests that dynamic stresses may be triggering all of these aftershocks. We infer that the observed aftershock density is consistent with the probability of triggering aftershocks being nearly proportional to seismic wave amplitude. The data are not fitted well by models that combine static stress change with the evolution of frictionally locked faults.     

Triggering of earthquake aftershocks by dynamic stresses

It is thought that small 'static' stress changes due to permanent fault displacement can alter the likelihood of, or trigger, earthquakes on nearby faults. Many studies of triggering in the near-field, particularly of aftershocks, rely on these static changes as the triggering agent and consider them only in terms of equivalent changes in the applied load on the fault. Here we report a comparison of the aftershock pattern of the moment magnitude Mw = 7.3 Landers earthquake, not only with static stress changes but also with transient, oscillatory stress changes transmitted as seismic waves (that is, 'dynamic' stresses). Dynamic stresses do not permanently change the applied load and thus can trigger earthquakes only by altering the mechanical state or properties of the fault zone. These dynamically weakened faults may fail after the seismic waves have passed by, and might even cause earthquakes that would not otherwise have occurred. We find similar asymmetries in the aftershock and dynamic stress patterns, the latter being due to rupture propagation, whereas the static stress changes lack this asymmetry. Previous studies have shown that dynamic stresses can promote failure at remote distances, but here we show that they can also do so nearby.     

Analysing the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes with recent instrumentally recorded aftershocks

Although dynamic stress changes associated with the passage of seismic waves are thought to trigger earthquakes at great distances, more than 60 per cent of all aftershocks appear to be triggered by static stress changes within two rupture lengths of a mainshock. The observed distribution of aftershocks may thus be used to infer details of mainshock rupture geometry. Aftershocks following large mid-continental earthquakes, where background stressing rates are low, are known to persist for centuries, and models based on rate-and-state friction laws provide theoretical support for this inference. Most past studies of the New Madrid earthquake sequence have indeed assumed ongoing microseismicity to be a continuing aftershock sequence. Here we use instrumentally recorded aftershock locations and models of elastic stress change to develop a kinematically consistent rupture scenario for three of the four largest earthquakes of the 1811-1812 New Madrid sequence. Our results suggest that these three events occurred on two contiguous faults, producing lobes of increased stress near fault intersections and end points, in areas where present-day microearthquakes have been hitherto interpreted as evidence of primary mainshock rupture. We infer that the remaining New Madrid mainshock may have occurred more than 200 km north of this region in the Wabash Valley of southern Indiana and Illinois--an area that contains abundant modern microseismicity, and where substantial liquefaction was documented by historic accounts. Our results suggest that future large mid-plate earthquake sequences may extend over a much broader region than previously suspected.     

Remote triggering of deep earthquakes in the 2002 Tonga sequences

It is well established that an earthquake in the Earth's crust can trigger subsequent earthquakes, but such triggering has not been documented for deeper earthquakes. Models for shallow fault interactions suggest that static (permanent) stress changes can trigger nearby earthquakes, within a few fault lengths from the causative earthquake, whereas dynamic (transient) stresses carried by seismic waves may trigger earthquakes both nearby and at remote distances. Here we present a detailed analysis of the 19 August 2002 Tonga deep earthquake sequences and show evidence for both static and dynamic triggering. Seven minutes after a magnitude 7.6 earthquake occurred at a depth of 598 km, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake (664 km depth) occurred 300 km away, in a previously aseismic region. We found that nearby aftershocks of the first mainshock are preferentially located in regions where static stresses are predicted to have been enhanced by the mainshock. But the second mainshock and other triggered events are located at larger distances where static stress increases should be negligible, thus suggesting dynamic triggering. The origin times of the triggered events do not correspond to arrival times of the main seismic waves from the mainshocks and the dynamically triggered earthquakes frequently occur in aseismic regions below or adjacent to the seismic zone. We propose that these events are triggered by transient effects in regions near criticality, but where earthquakes have difficulty nucleating without external influences.     

Foreshock sequences and short-term earthquake predictability on East Pacific Rise transform faults

East Pacific Rise transform faults are characterized by high slip rates (more than ten centimetres a year), predominantly aseismic slip and maximum earthquake magnitudes of about 6.5. Using recordings from a hydroacoustic array deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we show here that East Pacific Rise transform faults also have a low number of aftershocks and high foreshock rates compared to continental strike-slip faults. The high ratio of foreshocks to aftershocks implies that such transform-fault seismicity cannot be explained by seismic triggering models in which there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to predict (retrospectively) earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 or greater, in narrow spatial and temporal windows and with a high probability gain. The predictability of such transform earthquakes is consistent with a model in which slow slip transients trigger earthquakes, enrich their low-frequency radiation and accommodate much of the aseismic plate motion.     

Decay of aftershock density with distance does not indicate triggering by dynamic stress

Resolving whether static or dynamic stress triggers most aftershocks and subsequent mainshocks is essential to understand earthquake interaction and to forecast seismic hazard. Felzer and Brodsky examined the distance distribution of earthquakes occurring in the first five minutes after 2?≤?M?相似文献   

Lushan M S7.0 earthquake: A special earthquake occurs on curved fault

Relocation result shows that the aftershocks of the Lushan M _S7.0 earthquake spatially distribute in a shape like “half bowl”, indicating that the rupture structure of the mainshock is a highly curved surface. Kinematic analysis reveals that a laterally varied dislocation pattern occurs on this curved fault even though a single relative horizontal movement controls slip on this fault. Reverse slip prevails on curved fault. However, significant normal slip is predicted near the edge of north flank. Moreover, the north flank features left-lateral slip while the south flank contrarily features right-lateral slip. The relative scope of aftershock distribution implies inadequate breaking of the curved fault during the mainshock, calling for the attention to potential earthquake risk on the neighboring portions of the coseismic rupture due to significant increase of the coseismic Coulomb stress. Coseismic stress modeling also reveals that it is unnecessary for the stress on ruptured part to be unloaded following the earthquakes on the curved fault. The coseismic stress loading on ruptured elements unveils the specialty of faulting for the Lushan earthquake and we conclude that this specialty is due to the highly curved fault geometry.     

Aftershocks driven by a high-pressure CO2 source at depth

In northern Italy in 1997, two earthquakes of magnitudes 5.7 and 6 (separated by nine hours) marked the beginning of a sequence that lasted more than 30 days, with thousands of aftershocks including four additional events with magnitudes between 5 and 6. This normal-faulting sequence is not well explained with models of elastic stress transfer, particularly the persistence of hanging-wall seismicity that included two events with magnitudes greater than 5. Here we show that this sequence may have been driven by a fluid pressure pulse generated from the coseismic release of a known deep source of trapped high-pressure carbon dioxide (CO2). We find a strong correlation between the high-pressure front and the aftershock hypocentres over a two-week period, using precise hypocentre locations and a simple model of nonlinear diffusion. The triggering amplitude (10-20 MPa) of the pressure pulse overwhelms the typical (0.1-0.2 MPa) range from stress changes in the usual stress triggering models. We propose that aftershocks of large earthquakes in such geologic environments may be driven by the coseismic release of trapped, high-pressure fluids propagating through damaged zones created by the mainshock. This may provide a link between earthquakes, aftershocks, crust/mantle degassing and earthquake-triggered large-scale fluid flow.     

Earthquake nucleation by transient deformations caused by the M = 7.9 Denali, Alaska, earthquake

The permanent and dynamic (transient) stress changes inferred to trigger earthquakes are usually orders of magnitude smaller than the stresses relaxed by the earthquakes themselves, implying that triggering occurs on critically stressed faults. Triggered seismicity rate increases may therefore be most likely to occur in areas where loading rates are highest and elevated pore pressures, perhaps facilitated by high-temperature fluids, reduce frictional stresses and promote failure. Here we show that the 2002 magnitude M = 7.9 Denali, Alaska, earthquake triggered widespread seismicity rate increases throughout British Columbia and into the western United States. Dynamic triggering by seismic waves should be enhanced in directions where rupture directivity focuses radiated energy, and we verify this using seismic and new high-sample GPS recordings of the Denali mainshock. These observations are comparable in scale only to the triggering caused by the 1992 M = 7.4 Landers, California, earthquake, and demonstrate that Landers triggering did not reflect some peculiarity of the region or the earthquake. However, the rate increases triggered by the Denali earthquake occurred in areas not obviously tectonically active, implying that even in areas of low ambient stressing rates, faults may still be critically stressed and that dynamic triggering may be ubiquitous and unpredictable.     

Relocation of the mainshock and aftershock sequences of M S7.0 Sichuan Lushan earthquake

The mainshock of April 20, 2013 Sichuan Lushan M _S7.0 earthquake was relocated using a 3-D velocity model. Double difference algorithm was applied to relocate aftershock sequences of Lushan earthquake. The locations of 2405 aftershocks were determined. The location errors in E-W, N-S and U-D direction were 0.30, 0.29 and 0.59 km on average, respectively. The location of the mainshock is 102.983°E, 30.291°N and the focal depth is 17.6 km. The relocation results show that the aftershocks spread approximately 35 km in length and 16 km in width. The dominant distribution of the focal depth ranges from 10 to 20 km. A few earthquakes occurred in the shallow crust. Focal depth profiles show fault planes dip to the northwest, manifested itself as a listric thrust fault. The dip angle is steep in the shallow crust and gentle in the deep crust. Although the epicenters of aftershocks distributed mainly along both sides of the Shuangshi-Dachuan fault, the seismogenic fault may be a blind thrust fault on the eastern side of the Shuangshi-Dachuan fault. Earthquake relocation results reveal that there is a southeastward tilt aftershock belt intersecting with the seismogenic fault with y-shape. We speculate it is a back thrust fault that often appears in a thrust fault system. Lushan earthquake triggered the seismic activity of the back thrust fault.