Forecasting car expenditures using household survey data

Surveys collecting data on consumer attitudes and buying intentions have been performed in Sweden since 1973. This paper examines the usefulness of these data as quick indicators of the development of household expenditures on automobiles. In the evaluation we are considering the explanatory power as well as the prediction accuracy. It turns out that the best single indicator is among the plan indices. However, an indicator based on car registration statistics is found to be at least as good. By combining plan/attitude indices with car registrations our study shows that considerable improvements can be obtained.     

Developmental genes as a potential tool in population ecology of complex animal life cycles?

Many aquatic invertebrates possess complex life cycles, which include a switch from a vegetative to a sexual mode of reproduction. While sexual reproduction is usually linked to slow rates of propagation, vegetative reproduction leads to high rates of clonal propagation and a fast increase in population size. I have attempted to identify developmental genes which are differentially expressed between sexually and vegetatively reproducing individuals. Quantitative assays of the expression of those diagnostic genes could be applied to field samples to gain information on the reproductive status of the sample. Here I outline a general strategy for identifying and testing the usefulness of homeobox genes as candidates for regulatory genes whose expression patterns are indicative of a sexual or vegetative developmental phase.     

From the editors

Political forecasting provides the contextuality needed for decision-making and for forecasting ‘non-political’ trends. To gear political forecasting to these needs, rather than mimicking approaches in other areas, requires recognition of the distinctive nature of political trends, and realism regarding forecast uses, which generally do not benefit from ‘precise’ probabilities, predictions of only major events, or ‘sophisticated’ methodology that sacrifices comprehensiveness for explicitness. Approaches borrowed from other forecasting disciplines have been counterproductive, although contextual approaches, including cross-impact analyses and developmental constructs that integrate political and non-political trends, are promising. Explorations of the consistency of scenario dynamics, taking into account policy responses and non-formalizable complexity, are also useful. Thus the separation of political forecasting from political analysis should be minimized, calling for a redirection of effort away from developing methodology uniquely geared to forecasting, and towards organizing more comprehensive and systematic analytical efforts.     

基于模糊模式识别理论的规划环境影响评价

研究了模糊模式识别理论在规划环境影响评价中应用的问题.以阜新市经济转型期水资源综合规划的环境影响评价为例,对该规划进行了环境影响识别,构建了环境影响评价的指标体系,分析了规划中各个环境主题对环境影响的贡献,建立了水资源规划环境影响评价的模糊模式识别模型.评价结果表明,阜新市经济转型期水资源规划具有一定的环境彩响.为水资源规划的可行性提供了科学依据.     

西南山区产业发展的理论环境影响评价

针对西南地区环境复杂性、生态脆弱性、经济发展滞后性与人类活动非理性的现状,提出当前开展环境影响评价理论层面概念性研究的必要性和现实意义。实现经济发展与环境保护双赢的切入点就是以山区生态服务功能分区为基础,依据山区自然资源结构,确定产业发展类型、产业结构和空间布局,从环境保护与经济发展相协调的角度考察资源、环境与人口、经济增长的相互关系。     

The atmospheric environment—an introduction

The atmosphere is part of the environment with which the human organism is permanently confronted. Epidemiological research investigates the occurrence of effects on morbidity and mortality due to heat, cold, air pollution and changes in the weather. Concentrating on aspects of the environment relevant for medical questions, three major complexes of effects can be discriminated: the complex conditions of heat exchange, the direct biological effects of solar radiation, and air pollution. Biometeorological knowledge can serve to assess the atmospheric environment, and can also be of help in the field of preventive planning, to conserve and develop the climate as a natural resource with regard to man's health, well-being and performance.