Modelling vaccination strategies against foot-and-mouth disease

Vaccination has proved a powerful defence against a range of infectious diseases of humans and animals. However, its potential to control major epidemics of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in livestock is contentious. Using an individual farm-based model, we consider either national prophylactic vaccination campaigns in advance of an outbreak, or combinations of reactive vaccination and culling strategies during an epidemic. Consistent with standard epidemiological theory, mass prophylactic vaccination could reduce greatly the potential for a major epidemic, while the targeting of high-risk farms increases efficiency. Given sufficient resources and preparation, a combination of reactive vaccination and culling might control ongoing epidemics. We also explore a reactive strategy, 'predictive' vaccination, which targets key spatial transmission loci and can reduce markedly the long tail that characterizes many FMD epidemics. These analyses have broader implications for the control of human and livestock infectious diseases in heterogeneous spatial landscapes.     

具捕杀效应的SEI狂犬病模型的空间动力学分析

为讨论针对性的捕杀对狂犬病传播的影响,研究了一类具捕杀效应的易感者-潜伏期感染者-已经感染者(SEI)狂犬病模型.通过相应的特征值问题,引入基本再生数,并利用上下解方法建立了平衡点的稳定性.结果表明:有针对性的捕杀对狂犬病的控制和预防起着重要的作用.     

Metapopulation dynamics of bubonic plague

Bubonic plague is widely regarded as a disease of mainly historical importance; however, with increasing reports of incidence and the discovery of antibiotic-resistant strains of the plague bacterium Yersinia pestis, it is re-emerging as a significant health concerns. Here we bypass the conventional human-disease models, and propose that bubonic plague is driven by the dynamics of the disease in the rat population. Using a stochastic, spatial metapopulation model, we show that bubonic plague can persist in relatively small rodent populations from which occasional human epidemics arise, without the need for external imports. This explains why historically the plague persisted despite long disease-free periods, and how the disease re-occurred in cities with tight quarantine control. In a contemporary setting, we show that human vaccination cannot eradicate the plague, and that culling of rats may prevent or exacerbate human epidemics, depending on the timing of the cull. The existence of plague reservoirs in wild rodent populations has important public-health implications for the transmission to urban rats and the subsequent risk of human outbreaks.     

Large-scale eradication of rabies using recombinant vaccinia-rabies vaccine.

Rabies infection of domestic and wild animals is a serious problem throughout the world. The major disease vector in Europe is the red fox (Vulpes vulpes) and rabies control has focused on vaccinating and/or culling foxes. Culling has not been effective, and the distribution of five vaccine baits is the only appropriate method for the vaccination of wild foxes. Although some European countries have conducted field vaccination campaigns using attenuated rabies virus strains, their use has not been extensively approved because they retain pathogenicity for rodents and can revert to virulence. These strains cannot be used in North America because they are pathogenic for the striped skunk (Mephitis mephitis) and are ineffective in the raccoon (Procyon lotor). We have constructed a recombinant vaccinia virus, VVTGgRAB, expressing the surface glycoprotein (G) of rabies virus (ERA strain). The recombinant was a highly effective vaccine in experimental animals, in captive foxes and in raccoons. We report here the results of a large-scale campaign of fox vaccination in a 2,200 km2 region of southern Belgium, an area in which rabies is prevalent. After distribution, 81% of foxes inspected were positive for tetracycline, a biomarker included in the vaccine bait and, other than one rabid fox detected close to the periphery of the treated area, no case of rabies, either in foxes or in domestic livestock, has been reported in the area.     

社会福利博弈模型成立的条件分析

社会福利博弈模型是博弈论教材和研究者经常引用的经济模型,但是由于没有人系统地分析过模型成立的前提条件,忽略了模型建立的基础条件,人们对它的理解和应用经常出现错误．根据分析模型的支付变量,提出了社会福利博弈模型成立的必须满足的八个前提条件,并通过构建失业者边际效用模型对该模型成立的适应性进行了论证和说明．     

公共娱乐场所防排烟技术应用研究

说明公共娱乐场所设置防排烟设施的必要性,探讨该场所防排烟方式的选择,防排烟设置部位,机械排烟量计算,以及公共娱乐场所自身存在的问题。并指出多层民用建筑或人防工程内公共娱乐场所机械排烟系统与通风系统相结合,通篇文章体现该场所防排烟设计简便实用性。     

Transmission intensity and impact of control policies on the foot and mouth epidemic in Great Britain

The foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic in British livestock remains an ongoing cause for concern, with new cases still arising in previously unaffected areas. Epidemiological analyses have been vital in delivering scientific advice to government on effective control measures. Using disease, culling and census data on all livestock farms in Great Britain, we analysed the risk factors determining the spatiotemporal evolution of the epidemic and of the impact of control policies on FMD incidence. Here we show that the species mix, animal numbers and the number of distinct land parcels in a farm are central to explaining regional variation in transmission intensity. We use the parameter estimates thus obtained in a dynamical model of disease spread to show that extended culling programmes were essential for controlling the epidemic to the extent achieved, but demonstrate that the epidemic could have been substantially reduced in scale had the most efficient control measures been rigorously applied earlier.     

Herd immunity to helminth infection and implications for parasite control

Despite much research on immunological responses to helminth parasites, knowledge of the dynamic interplay between levels of herd immunity in humans and the rates of exposure, establishment and mortality of parasites remains limited. We describe here a simple mathematical model for the population dynamics of helminth infections which mirrors the development of a degree of acquired immunity within populations which are genetically heterogeneous with respect to immunological responsiveness. We interpret observed patterns in the age-specific intensity of infection and attempt to understand the possible effects of control measures based on chemotherapy and vaccination. Mass chemotherapy can, in some circumstances, reduce the level of herd immunity such that average worm burdens in the adult age classes rise above their precontrol levels. When certain individuals or groups are predisposed to heavy infection, selective or targeted drug treatment can have significantly greater impact than mass or random application. Conversely, model predictions suggest that effective parasite control by vaccination (if and when vaccines become available) is difficult to achieve in communities that are genetically heterogeneous in their ability to mount protective responses to infection.     

网络综合布线系统的研究

介绍了网络综合布线系统的分类,各子系统设计时的注意要点以及网络综合布线系统的优点。     

基于 SIR 传染病模型的印度新冠疫情波及影响分析

针对印度新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)疫情的传播,建立通过设定目标函数求最优解来确定模型未知参数的 SIR 传染病动力学模型。 首先通过线性回归拟合参数范围,设定目标函数作为约束条件,结合龙格-库塔法,借助 Matlab 软件确定参数值最优解,进行 SIR 模型拟合和预测,发现印度疫情拐点将出现在 2021 年 5 月 8 日左右,结合预测数据推导未来每日新增及累计新增病例数,虽未来 100 d 内将持续出现新增病例,但疫情现期已经有消退趋势;其次考虑印度变种病毒 B. 1. 617 以及当下疫苗接种情况的影响,建立加入疫苗影响因素的 SIR 预测模型,通过进行疫苗接种灵敏度分析模拟出印度疫苗接种率大约需要达到 75%,考虑有效保护率则接种率需要高达 95%,才可以建立起群体免疫屏障;最后通过基本传染数验证了疫苗接种率,并对新冠波及影响做出了相应对策分析。     

非理性投资者行为的IPO抑价理论分析

借鉴行为金融学中有关投资者非理性行为的观点,对中国广大中小投资者的非理性行为和中国IPO抑价的关系进行了研究.假定发行公司以筹集资金最大化为目标函数,理性的机构投资者作为代理人持有股票,并在上市后把IPO股票转售给非理性的中小投资者,以攫取他们的消费者剩余,达到目的.通过模型化该过程,发现中国的IPO高抑价与中国存在众多的非理性中小投资者有直接的关系,是他们导致了抑价这一结果.     

基于约束的集合覆盖选址-分配问题

摘要：
在供应链协同库存背景下研究了基于集合覆盖的有时间和容量限制的配送中心选址问题,目标是系统的成本最小以及决策配送中心向需求点提供最优配送量.根据建模的假设条件,建立了基于集合覆盖的有容量和时间限制的选址 分配系统的非线性规划模型,按照模型决策空间所具有的特殊结构,设计了基于遗传和粒子群算法（GA PSO）的启发式算法.用大量的数据作为算例对模型进行了数值演算.结果表明,模型实用、算法有效.
关键词：
协同库存;选址 分配系统; 时间容量限制; 启发式算法
中图分类号： F 27
文献标志码： A     

明末清初天主教传华史研究的回顾与反思

通过梳理明末清初天主教传华史研究的历程,提出学者争议的焦点是中西文化力量强弱对比和基督教神学与中国文化能否相融两大问题,并分析围绕两大问题形成的不同意见,进而探讨其各自的理论前设,即“冲击一回应”理论与文化互动思想。在此基础上提出,今后研究应注意经由“他者”认识“自我”,努力达到存异基础上的“和而不同”。     

基于可编程GPU的三维地形场景中树的渲染优化技术

充分利用当前高性能可编程图形硬件特性及OpenGL 4的最新性能,结合LOD加速技术,采用多遍绘制技术,以及图像遮挡剔除技术来进行树实例的可见性剔除可以优化三维地形场景的渲染。实验主要是对地形场景中树的渲染进行优化,数据结果表明这些优化方法在保证地形场景的真实性的同时减少了场景的几何复杂度,提高了帧刷新率。     

一类具有Logistic死亡率的脉冲免疫接种SIRS传染病模型

建立了一类具有一般Logistic死亡率和标准传染率的SIRS传染病模型, 在脉冲免疫接种条件下, 利用离散动力系统的频闪映射方法, 得到了系统的无病周期解. 运用Floquet乘子理论和脉冲微分方程比较定理, 证明了该周期解的全局渐近稳定性, 并获得了系统一致持续生存的条件. 结果表明, 为了阻止疾病流行, 需要选择恰当的脉冲接种率和脉冲免疫接种周期.     

贝塞尔方程量子线边界下的解析解

以量子线材料中的电子分布为模型,通过分离变量,得到在此模型下的柱坐标贝塞尔方程;在物理背景下通过坐标变换,在不改变物理意义的前提下,做等效求解,得到贝塞尔方程的解析解表达式;讨论了所得结果的适用性和方法的价值。     

地震作用下结构随机阻尼对结构位移的影响

考虑地震地面加速度模型为平稳过滤白噪声模型，均值假定为零，分析了结构随机阻尼的变异对结构位移均方差的影响．通过理论和实例的分析，表明建筑结构阻尼的随机性对建筑结构位移响应有影响，应当重视地震作用下建筑结构随机阻尼的研究．     

一类带有脉冲免疫TB模型的稳定性分析(英文)

根据肺结核具有感染年龄的传播特点,建立了带感染年龄和脉冲接种的SEIV模型,得到了无病周期解全局稳定的条件.该条件说明,适当小的脉冲周期和适当大的免疫比例可根除肺结核.     

计算机网络综合布线系统中的数据安全性探讨

介绍了智能大厦与综合布线的概念及关系。为便于选择,分析了在综合布线系统中有关介质的特性,讨论了综合布线工程中为了传输安全而采取的防护措施。     

场景视锥裁剪算法的再优化

在“RTG三维图形开发工具包”开发工作的基础上,借助计算机图形学视锥裁剪算法的基本原理,做了进一步的技术优化,提出了针对视锥的粗裁剪和精裁剪方法,进而大幅度的提高了大场景中视野内的绘制渲染速度,为开发大型实时场景提供了良好的前提条件.