The Research on the Decision－making Mechanism of China′s Monetary Policy Regulation

Decision- making isthe whole process from discovering to solving a problem. The characterof its logic is the problem- oriented pragmatism and innovative ratiocination taking thefuture as premise. Decision- making mechanism is the operation mode that the d…     

A Conceptual Framework Based on Maturana’s Ontology of the Observer to Explore the Checkland’s Soft Systems Methodology

This paper explores Checkland’s Soft Systems Methodology (SSM) through the lenses of a theoretical framework that incorporates key concepts from Maturana’s Ontology of the Observer (OoO) with the view of complementing Checkland’s SSM application process. We outline and examine paradigmatic compatibility between: Checkland’s ontological position (reality is problematic/chaotic) together with his interpretivist epistemology (multiple perceptions enrich the ever-changing reality); and Maturana’s OoO (we are immersed in the praxis of living in an ontological multi-universe). We argue that OoO resonates with key SSM theoretical underpinnings. After establishing compatibility between these two influential systems thinkers, we advance a conceptual framework in which Checkland’s SSM learning process is re-visited through a the framework grounded on Maturana’s OoO. The proposed framework illustrates how key ideas drawn from Maturana’s OoO can shed light into the way in which some of the main SSM devices (i.e.: Root definitions, Conceptual model) are used in the SSM process. By doing that, SSM is enriched and becomes more flexible as the stakeholders involved are placed within the domain of constitutive ontologies from which, a deeper dialogue can be promoted in a domain of coexistence in mutual acceptance. We argue that this is a suitable way to have more flexible and holistic views for a SSM intervention in particular to promote the learning process and debating proposed changes amongst the stakeholders involved. The proposed framework, when applied, may enhance the power of SSM learning process and when adopted can have substantial implications to complement the SSM process.

     

Evaluating the conceptual design schemes of complex products based on FAHP using fuzzy number

1 .INTRODUCTIONIn the conceptual design stage of complex products(such as missile system) ,CBR[1]tool is useful to of-fer a feasible set of schemes . Then the most adaptivescheme can be generatedthrough a procedure of com-parison and evaluation. The procedure is essentially amultiple criteria decision-making problem.The missile systemis a large and complex sys-tem,In the last decade , Cheng[3], Mon[4], Chen[5]and Zhang[6]have proposedfuzzy AHP[2]or fuzzy de-cision of hierarchy methods…     

Towards an Effective Multi-Stakeholder Consultation Process: Applying the Imagine Method in Context of Abu Dhabi’s Education Policy

This paper is concerned with the many interleaving issues that emerge when engaging multiple stakeholders in decision-making. Whilst recognising the intrinsic value of group work and keeping in mind the numerous issues that obstruct group work (including multiple roles for participants, bias due to domination and distortion emerging from uneven group inputs), we applied the Imagine method to propose a new framework—the ‘Multiple Formation Consultation Framework’ (MFCF)—for organising effective multi-stakeholder consultations along the Policy Sciences Framework. Our proposed framework was applied in the context of education policy in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, where 24 small group formations were tasked and assessed in a systemic manner. Evidence from the exercise suggests that: (1) when moving participants from heterogeneous to homogenous groups, the working of the groups became more focused and the outcomes gained greater clarity in terms of the thinking of group members. (2) Yet, when groups moved from homogenous formations to heterogeneous, they became more inquisitive and explored broader aspects of the tasks at hand. (3) A repeat of the process over 2-day period where different members of the groups experience both homogenous and heterogeneous formations back and forth (in order to capture the unique value emerging from each composition) have led to more efficient and effective working and outcomes of the groups.     

Self-evident Automated Proving Based on Point Geometry from the Perspective of Wu’s Method Identity

The algebraic methods represented by Wu’s method have made significant breakthroughs in the field of geometric theorem proving. Algebraic proofs usually involve large amounts of calculations, thus making it difficult to understand intuitively. However, if the authors look at Wu’s method from the perspective of identity,Wu’s method can be understood easily and can be used to generate new geometric propositions. To make geometric reasoning simpler, more expressive, and richer in geometric meaning, the authors establish a geometric algebraic system (point geometry built on nearly 20 basic properties/formulas about operations on points) while maintaining the advantages of the coordinate method, vector method, and particle geometry method and avoiding their disadvantages. Geometric relations in the propositions and conclusions of a geometric problem are expressed as identical equations of vector polynomials according to point geometry. Thereafter, a proof method that maintains the essence of Wu’s method is introduced to find the relationships between these equations. A test on more than 400 geometry statements shows that the proposed proof method, which is based on identical equations of vector polynomials, is simple and effective. Furthermore, when solving the original problem, this proof method can also help the authors recognize the relationship between the propositions of the problem and help the authors generate new geometric propositions.

     

An Assessment of the Application of ‘Critical Systems Heuristics’ to a Policy Development Process

Through the presentation and analysis of a case study of a policymaking process for the quality assurance of higher education by an external government agency, this paper seeks to highlight the contribution of Ulrich’s critical systems heuristics as a method for enhancing the social rationality of policymaking. It is claimed that the use of CSH enabled the researcher to elicit rich qualitative data that captured different world-views, values and boundary judgments of social actors representing the different groups of stakeholders involved in or affected by the policy. The use of CSH contributed to a policy settlement that involved substantial improvement to the reformulated policies. However, it is argued that, in the context of a new democracy with a weak public sphere, CSH was unable to counter the unequal power relations between the government agency and the universities and the historical-political fractures of South African society that caused divisions within and across Ulrich’s social roles.

Heilbronn’s Problem of Eight Points in the Square

Journal of Systems Science and Complexity - In this work the authors consider the problem of optimally distributing 8 points inside a unit square so that the smallest area of the...     

Measuring the Performance of a Research Strategic Plan System Using the Soft Systems Methodology’s Three ‘Es’ and the Viable System Model’s Indices of Achievement

We explore problems involving the measurement of the performance of a system. We outline two systemic approaches that have come from different epistemological positions: one from the interpretivist paradigm (soft systems methodology) and the other from the cybernetic paradigm (viable systems model). These two systemic methodologies that have tackled problems involving performance measurement are considered and discussed: (a) Checkland’s systems ideas of ‘managing and controlling’ a system throughout a set of three measures of performance: efficacy, efficiency and effectiveness; and (b) Beer’s concepts of Actuality, Capability, Potentiality of the firm and his claims that the performance of a system needs to be quantifiable and resumed on ‘pure’ numbers which should reflect the survivability of the firm. A parallel is drawn between the two approaches concluding that although the paradigms underpinning them are in some way different, the practicalities of these approaches to control, measure and improve the performance of a system are very similar. A case involving the measurement of a proposed research strategic plan for a Manchester Metropolitan University Business School’s department is used to illustrate the systemic approaches.     

Analysis of Policy Factors in the Stock Market

One model of stochastic time series - Markov chain was presented in this paper. We study and discuss the application of this model. Some results that the policy factor make to stock price were offered when this model is applied to analyze the index of Shanghai stock market quantitatively.     

Impact of Fall Armyworm on Farmer’s Maize: Systemic Approach

Systemic Practice and Action Research - Fall armyworm (FAW) infestation in African countries presents significant threats to maize production. Such infestation has major economic implications in...     

Impact of Crowdsourcee’s Vertical Fairness Concern on the Crowdsourcing Knowledge Sharing Behavior and Its Incentive Mechanism

This paper examines in detail the impact of the crowdsourcee's vertical fairness concern on the knowledge sharing incentive mechanism in crowdsourcing communities. The conditions for the establishment of the incentive mechanism are analyzed and the impact of fairness concern sensitivity on expected economic revenues of both sides as well as the crowdsourcing project performance is studied by game theory and computer simulation. The results show that the knowledge sharing incentive mechanism can only be established if the ratio between the performance improvement rate and the private cost reduction rate caused by shared knowledge is within a certain range. The degree of the optimal linear incentives, the private solution efforts, and the improvement of knowledge sharing level are positively correlated with the sensitivity of vertical fairness concern. In the non-incentive mode, the ratio between the performance conversion rate of private solution effort and the performance conversion rate of knowledge sharing effort plays an important role in moderating a crowdsourcing project's performance. The authors find that the number of participants is either conducive or nonconducive to the improvement of performance. The implementation of knowledge sharing incentive can achieve a win-win situation for both the crowdsourcer and the crowdsourcee.     

Complete monotonicity of the probability of ruin and de Finetti’s dividend problem

This paper studies the complete monotonicity of the probability of ruinψin the the classical risk model and the classical risk model that is perturbed by a diffusion.As a byproduct,the authors give an alternative proof to a result on the optimal dividend problem due to LoefFen(2008).     

Chover’s law of the iterated logarithm for negatively associated sequences

<正> Consider a sequence of negatively associated and identically distributed random variableswith the underlying distribution in the domain of attraction of a stable distribution with an exponentin(0,2).A Chover's law of the iterated logarithm is established for negatively associated randomvariables.Our results generalize and improve those on Chover's law of the iterated logarithm(LIL)type behavior previously obtained by Mikosch(1984),Vasudeva(1984),and Qi and Cheng(1996)fromthe i.i.d,case to NA sequences.     

Relationships of the Monetary Policy, Stock Market and Real Investment in China Based on Markov-Switching Model

This paper studies the relationships of the monetary policy, stock market and real investment in China based on Markov-Switching-Vector Error Correction Model. It shows that there is a cointegration relationship among the three ones. We disclose the riddle that the stock market is in recession, but the growth rate of economy is very high in recent years. We also find that Chinese economy operated stably most of the time during the past 8 years. But if the economy is difficult to continue its high growth, it is more likely to appear ＂hard landing＂ than ＂soft landing＂. The impulse response analysis indicates the asymmetry between the ＂too cold＂ economy regime and the ＂too hot＂ regime. And the economy will oscillate during the subsequent time when it is shocked under the ＂too hot＂ regime.     

on the Geometric Model of the Apportionment Problem

ＯｎｔｈｅＧｅｏｍｅｔｒｉｃＭｏｄｅｌｏｆｔｈｅＡｐｐｏｒｔｉｏｎｍｅｎｔＰｒｏｂｌｅｍＯｎｔｈｅＧｅｏｍｅｔｒｉｃＭｏｄｅｌｏｆｔｈｅＡｐｐｏｒｔｉｏｎｍｅｎｔＰｒｏｂｌｅｍ￥ＬＩＹａｎｌｉｎ；ＹＡＮＧＳｈｏｕｌｉａｎ（ＤｅｐａｒｔｍｅｎｔｏｆＭａ...     

“Towards Re-Inventing Psychohistory”:Predicting the Popularity of Tomorrow’s News from Yesterday’s Twitter and News Feeds

Rapid advances in machine learning combined with wide availability of online social media have created considerable research activity in predicting what might be the news of tomorrow based on an analysis of the past.In this work,we present a deep learning forecasting framework which is capable to predict tomorrow’s news topics on Twitter and news feeds based on yesterday’s content and topic-interaction features.The proposed framework starts by generating topics from words using word embeddings and K-means clustering.Then temporal topic-networks are constructed where two topics are linked if the same user has worked on both topics.Structural and dynamic metrics calculated from networks along with content features and past activity,are used as input of a long short-term memory(LSTM)model,which predicts the number of mentions of a specific topic on the subsequent day.Utilizing dependencies among topics,our experiments on two Twitter datasets and the HuffPost news dataset demonstrate that selecting a topic’s historical local neighbors in the topic-network as extra features greatly improves the prediction accuracy and outperforms existing baselines.     

Characteristics and realization of the second generation surface acoustic wave’s wavelet device

1.INTRODUCTIONDue to the process and characteristics of the non-stationary signals both in ti me and frequency do-mains,wavelet technology has been widely em-ployedin scientific research and engineering appli-cation fields[1~3].To date,wavelet algorithmthatneeds a larger number of mathematic operationsand complicated program is mainly realized bycomputer,whichis quite difficult and expensive toapplyit to engineeringfields and portable electron-ic systems.To solve these problems,we proposed…     

The Differentiated Effect of Administrative Policy in China's Housing Market——Based on the Heterogeneous Households Multi-Agent Model

Since 2010, Chinese government has introduced a series of administrative policies to limit speculation in the housing market to stabilize price fluctuations and keep the housing market in a healthy state of development. In order to investigate whether administrative policy can play its due role, this paper constructs a comprehensive bottom-up housing market heterogeneous households multiagent model(HHMAM) to undertake research on the differentiated effect of administrative policy in different cities. The empirical studies find that: 1) Administrative policy that increases interest rates will cause housing prices to continue to decline in the long term, but they will resume a rising trend after reaching the lowest point; 2) If the government cancels a property-purchasing limitation, housing prices will continue to rise; and 3) investors tend to invest in 1~(st)-tier cities due to the high demand and greater likelihood of appreciation in these cities.