146MHz C型爆发与地磁暴

鉴于地球轨道附近的行星际激波特性取决于太阳爆发事件的持续时间,选取了持续时间大于10分钟的146M_(HZ) C型爆发,分析了它们与地磁暴的相关性质,并探讨了由此予测地磁暴的可能性。结果表明,用这样选择的太阳事件予报地磁暴,跟Stonchoker同时参考H_a耀斑、Ⅳ型射电爆发以及200M(HZ)爆发的予报方案相比,可达到相近的水平。由于选择事件的依据不同,两者所用的统计性质不尽相同。     

甚低频电磁波方法预报地磁暴

通过观察甚低频电磁波的相位变化,预测太阳耀斑的级别.当太阳耀斑爆发时,太阳表面首先会发出大量电磁辐射(主要是X射线),甚低频电磁波能很好地感应到此辐射;其次还喷射出大量带电低能粒子流,这会引起地磁暴,且通常在耀斑爆发1~2d之后到达地球.给出了一个预报地磁暴的实例.两事件的时间间隔约为28h,太阳风的速度约为1 484.1km/s.     

空间灾害性扰动事件数值预报初探——行星际激波动力学问题6步求解法

空间灾害性天气的预报是日地物理学界及高科技领域的热门话题.未来预测太阳剧烈扰动所造成的行星际风暴到达地球空间的状态势必借助于数值方法.浅析了空间灾害性扰动事件数值预报存在的问题及未来设想, 针对这一目的对一维球对称问题提出了处理行星际激波的 6步求解方法,指出未来空间灾害性扰动事件预报模式应是一个基于三维的以真实太阳风为背景自洽建立起来的、以太阳等离子体输出及磁场全球结构为初边值、太阳、行星际、地磁因果耦合模式.     

太阳瞬时爆发事件对我国降水的影响

进入地球低层大气的高能太阳质子对我国降水有一定的影响,经统计分析得出:有80％以上进入地球的强太阳质子事件出现72～80小时后我国长江流域以南广大地区内的平均降水量在关键日后有明显的增加,特别是在低值系统活动地区降水必然要增加20％以上。说明这种高能太阳质子供给天气系统的能量与短期天气系统本身所具有的能量相当。因此,完全可以将其作为短期降水预报中的一个预报因子从而提高短期降水预报中的预报水平。利用太阳瞬时爆发特性指数的大小和其三年周期变化规律可作出每年3月份的旱涝预报。笔者分析还表明,进入地球低层大气的高能太阳质子事件对我国降水的影响与磁暴的类型和强弱关系不大。本文对于促进日地关系的进一步研究具有一定的现实意义。     

风云1号卫星相对论电子观测结果和增强事件分析

风云1号（FY—1）卫星运行在约870km的近地轨道上,安装于该星上的“空间粒子成分监测器”对相对论电子（〉1．6MeV）进行了长期的观测．参考同期的“SAMPEX”卫星同类探测结果,对1999年6月至2005年的风云1号卫星相对论电子观测数据进行了统计分析．并结合ACE卫星太阳风速度数据及地磁活动指数（Dst指数）,对近地轨道相对论电子增强事件与高速太阳风和地磁暴的相关关系进行了讨论．分析结果表明日平均通量峰值大于400cm^-2．sr^-1．S^-1的强相对论电子增强事件频发于太阳活动峰年向谷年转变的过渡时期;风云1号卫星在2003～2005年期间观测到4次持续时间长达26～51d不等的相对论电子增强事件,分析表明这4次持续长时间的事件与高速太阳风和强地磁暴密切相关,而且在增强事件爆发前连续发生2～3次强地磁扰动的空间环境扰动特点是这4次事件的一个共同特征;相关系数的计算结果表明,相对论电子增强事件的通量峰值与太阳风速度和Dst指数均具有较好的相关性,强度大的增强事件与太阳风速度和Dst指数的相关性明显优于强度低的事件．     

非磁暴期间银河宇宙线强度的小波分析

利用小波分析分析了非磁暴期间几种情况下宇宙线强度的变化,结果表明,只有行星际较平静时银河宇宙线强度的周日变化才比较明显和稳定.不同年份,地磁静日银河宇宙线日波峰值取值的地方时可能不同.当行星际出现扰动但没有出现磁暴时,银河宇宙线的日波也会出现变化,即日波幅度会出现减弱或增强,因此,仅利用银河宇宙线的日波变化情况不能作为地磁暴前兆的判据,只能作为行星际扰动的判据.     

地磁感应电流水平与行星际扰动的关系分析

地磁感应电流(geomagnetically induced currents,简称GIC)取决于地磁场变化。地磁场变化受电离层、磁层和行星际等各空间的扰动变化所驱动。认识GIC与空间扰动参数的关系可尝试预测、预报GIC及其影响。利用斯皮尔曼相关系数分析了1999—2005年间芬兰输气管线GIC数据与ACE卫星记录的行星际扰动参数(Bs,Ey,V,Pk,|B|,ε)的相关性。结果表明,这些参数与GIC都具有较好的相关性;其中,Pk和|B|是与GIC相关性最好的两个参数。在大磁暴GIC事件中V的相关度最高,特大磁暴GIC事件中Ey相关度最好。如果把GIC分成三个级别,即GIC≥10A,GIC≥20A,GIC≥30A,相关性最好的参数分别为Ey,Pk和|B|。统计GIC事件的行星际源发现,所有事件的行星际源中包含鞘层结构(SH)的比例高达82.8%,30A以上GIC的行星际源都包含有磁云结构(MC)。综合分析表明,预测GIC的影响可以考虑这些条件。     

与日冕物质抛射相关的太阳高能粒子事件初始时间的数值模拟研究

通过两种不同方法对太阳高能粒子(Solar Energetic Particles,SEP)通量初始时刻进行研究,一种是数值模拟方法,即数值模拟中取第一颗粒子出现的时刻来确定,另一种是观测背景方法,即通过太阳高能粒子通量随时间变化的背景值与上升值的拐点时刻来确定.Kahler(2013)定义的SEP时间尺度TO(the onset time from CME launch to SEP onset,从CME爆发时刻到SEP初始时刻的时间段)、TR(the rise time from onset to half the peak intensity(0.5Ip),从SEP初始时刻的上升时间直到半峰值时刻)、TD(the duration of the SEP intensity above 0.5Ip,SEP强度高于半峰值的持续时间)都与SEP通量初始时刻相关.将CME驱动激波作为源,利用粒子输运方程,对SEP传播进行数值模拟.然后对描述SEP时间尺度的TR、TO的数值模拟值与观测进行对比,发现两者吻合很好,即TR随CME速度和宽度增加而增加.由于TO影响的因素较为复杂,并没有很好的规律性.另外,当源位置经度距离观测者较远的时候,影响时间尺度TR,TO的因素较多.因此,用不同方法确定的SEP通量初始时刻对TR,TO的影响不大;当源位置经度距离观测者较近的时候,观测背景方法下的数值模拟与观测更加符合.     

"资源一号"卫星星内高能粒子探测器

对空间辐射环境的效应以及“星内高能粒子探测器”原理和设计做了简要而全面地介绍，引用太阳活动宁静时期和一次剧烈的太阳扰动事件期间本仪器的观测数据显示了资料的质量和可用性。     

论地磁暴与9375MHz45C型爆发

本文探索利用太阳爆发事件预测地磁暴的可能性。选取了持续时间大于10分钟的9375MHz45C型爆发,深入分析了它与地磁暴的相关性质,并对由此建立的预报方程进行了实际的检验,亦相近于国际上“Stonchoker的先进的预报系统”的水平。     

Super solar particle event around AD775 was found

A rapid radiocarbon14C increase of 120/00in AD774–775 has been reported in cedar and oak tree rings.So far,the origin of the14C increase is still uncertain and the possible origin is either supernova or solar particle event.The most possible origin of14C increase is strong solar flares and Coronal Mass Ejections(CMEs)with strong particles emission.Comprehensive approaches to identify the strong historical solar particle events based on the rapid14C/10Be increase in tree/coral rings and ice cores,long duration strong auroras and geomagnetic storms are introduced.Evidence of the super auroras in AD775 was first found in a Chinese Chronicles Jiutangshu and it supports the views that the rapid14C increase and strong auroras around AD775 are most possibly caused by strong solar storms with intense particles emission.It was identified that the solar event around AD775 would be the strongest solar particle event in the past 11400 years.The discovery is significant for the research on the history of solar activities,space weather and forecast,radiation of solar energetic particles and protection.     

日冕物质抛射与太阳耀斑的时序关系分析

日冕物质抛射表现为在短时间内快速地由日冕向外抛射出大量等离子体物质,这些物质进入星际空间,特别是日地空间,会对日地空间的磁场分布造成影响。采用自1996年1月3日至2009年7月31日的太阳耀斑和日冕物质抛射的样本,对日冕物质抛射和耀斑的时序关系进行分时间窗口统计研究。结果表明对于耀斑而言,日冕物质抛射与其有密切的时序关系且耀斑级别越大时序关系越密切。而对于日冕物质抛射而言,耀斑与其没有密切的时序关系,这可能是所选取的样本中包含大量太阳背面日冕物质抛射所致。这一结论可以用于日冕物质抛射预报。     

An interplanetary shock traced by planetary auroral storms from the Sun to Saturn

A relationship between solar activity and aurorae on Earth was postulated long before space probes directly detected plasma propagating outwards from the Sun. Violent solar eruption events trigger interplanetary shocks that compress Earth's magnetosphere, leading to increased energetic particle precipitation into the ionosphere and subsequent auroral storms. Monitoring shocks is now part of the 'Space Weather' forecast programme aimed at predicting solar-activity-related environmental hazards. The outer planets also experience aurorae, and here we report the discovery of a strong transient polar emission on Saturn, tentatively attributed to the passage of an interplanetary shock--and ultimately to a series of solar coronal mass ejection (CME) events. We could trace the shock-triggered events from Earth, where auroral storms were recorded, to Jupiter, where the auroral activity was strongly enhanced, and to Saturn, where it activated the unusual polar source. This establishes that shocks retain their properties and their ability to trigger planetary auroral activity throughout the Solar System. Our results also reveal differences in the planetary auroral responses on the passing shock, especially in their latitudinal and local time dependences.     

A comparative analysis on two solar proton events

This paper presents a comparative analysis on the two Solar Proton Events (SPE), which occurred on 14 July 2000 (Bastille Day) and 28 October 2003 (28OCT03) respectively. It is found that although the peak flux of the latter seemed to be greater than that of the former based on geostationary observations, the maximum intensities of the energetic protons (>10 MeV and 30 MeV) during the Bastille Day event were all higher than those of the 28OCT03 event according to the interplanetary observations. Further analysis indicated that the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energies exceeding 10 and 30 MeV by the Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)-driven shock on 14 July 2000, was far larger than that of the 28OCT03 event. In the Bastille Day case, when the CME approached to the height around 14 R⊙, the CME-driven shock would reach its maximum capacity in accelerating the solar en- ergetic protons (>100 MeV). In contrast, on 28 October 2003, when CME approached to the height about 58R⊙, the CME-driven shock reached its highest potential in accelerating the solar energetic protons of the same category. At this moment, the peak flux (>100 MeV) was about 155 pfu, which was much lower than 355 pfu measured on 14 July 2000. This demonstrated that in the Bastille Day event, the quantity of the seed particles, which could be accelerated to the energy beyond 100 MeV, was significantly larger than its counterpart in the 28OCT03 case. Therefore, the peak flux of an SPE event depends not only on the interplanetary intensity of the solar energetic particles, but also on the velocity of the associated CME-driven shock, and the quantity of the seed particles as well as on the interplanetary magnetic en- vironment. This paper also reveals that the magnetic sheath associated with ICME on 28 October 2003 captured a large number of solar energetic protons, including those having energy greater than 100 MeV.     

巨烈磁暴对全球GNSS观测信号的影响

介绍了一种GNSS L₁和L₂信号及测距码失锁率统计计算方法,并考察了不同卫星高度角对失锁率计算结果的影响.利用全球GNSS观测数据,分析了第23太阳活动周发生的两次巨烈磁暴期间GNSS观测信号的质量.结果表明:巨烈磁暴发生期间GNSS L₁和L₂信号及P₁和P₂码失锁率较平静日均显著增加,信号失锁主要发生在磁暴主相及恢复相前期.L₂失锁率明显高于L₁且失锁持续时间更长,表明L₂比L₁更易受到磁暴影响.GNSS 信号失锁率与磁暴指数SYM-H的高相关性表明信号失锁率的异常增加由巨烈磁暴所驱动.研究成果可为我国北斗卫星导航系统全球信号质量评估提供方法支持.     

磁暴诱发电网故障灾害风险分析研究进展

地磁暴是太阳磁场剧烈变化在地球表面的作用结果,所产生的地电场会造成接地变压器直流偏磁,继而对电力系统安全运行造成不利影响。随着电网规模的增大和电压等级的增高,磁暴已经成为诱发电网灾害性故障风险的威胁之一。研究电力系统磁暴灾害风险能够为预防与控制其引发的电网事故提供重要参考。通过剖析磁暴引发的电力系统故障灾害电性历史事件,讨论了磁暴诱发电力系统风险机理与特点。分别从电网GIC引起的变压器故障和电力系统事故风险两个方面综述了近年来国内外电网磁暴灾害风险研究现状,分析了影响电网磁暴灾害风险的多样性和复杂性以及风险评估的难度;并指出了未来电网磁暴灾害风险的研究方向为风险评估、量化风险影响因素对风险的作用和风险防御等3个方面。     

Control of Jupiter's radio emission and aurorae by the solar wind

Radio emissions from Jupiter provided the first evidence that this giant planet has a strong magnetic field and a large magnetosphere. Jupiter also has polar aurorae, which are similar in many respects to Earth's aurorae. The radio emissions are believed to be generated along the high-latitude magnetic field lines by the same electrons that produce the aurorae, and both the radio emission in the hectometric frequency range and the aurorae vary considerably. The origin of the variability, however, has been poorly understood. Here we report simultaneous observations using the Cassini and Galileo spacecraft of hectometric radio emissions and extreme ultraviolet auroral emissions from Jupiter. Our results show that both of these emissions are triggered by interplanetary shocks propagating outward from the Sun. When such a shock arrives at Jupiter, it seems to cause a major compression and reconfiguration of the magnetosphere, which produces strong electric fields and therefore electron acceleration along the auroral field lines, similar to the processes that occur during geomagnetic storms at the Earth.     

A comparative study of global ionospheric responses to three great magnetic storms

Based on a large data base from 69 ionosonde stations distributed worldwide a comparative study is made on the global behavior of ionospheric responses to three great magnetic storms occurring nearly at low and high activity phase of the 22nd solar cycle. Depending on the season of storn occurrence, the global morphology of the ionospheric response to major magnetic storm is very different. For the February 1986 storm, hemispheric asymmetry of storm effects is remarkable, and positive storm effects are dominant in the winter hemisphere. Instead, for the two magnetic storms taking place near equinox in 1989, longlasting decreases in N_m were observed in both hemispheres Large-scale TIDs propagating equatorward were seen during the main phases of the October 1989 magnetic storm at evening-night sector. On the other hand, short-lasting positive storm effects appearing as wave-like disturbances in N_m were observed during the primary main phase of the 1986 storm in winter hemisphere. They seem to originate near the equatorial region and travel polarward. Supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China and the Science Foundation of State Education Commitee of China Xu Jisheng: born in Nov. 1946, Professor     

A gigantic jet event observed over a thunderstorm in mainland China

Gigantic jet(GJ) is a type of large-scaled transient discharge which occurs above thunderstorms.It connects the thunderstorms and ionosphere directly.Compared with the other transient luminous events(TLEs),gigantic jet is very difficult to be seen from the ground.We report a GJ event that was clearly recorded in eastern China(storm center located at 35.6°N,119.8°E,near the Huanghai Sea) at 20:16:22(local time) on 12 August,2010.It is by far the furthest from the equator ground-based GJ recorded over summer thunderstorm.The top altitude of this GJ was estimated to be about 89 km.The GJ-producing storm was a multi-cell thunderstorm and the GJ event occurred in the storm developing stage,with the lowest cloud-top brightness temperature about 73°C and the maximum radar echo top around 17 km.Altitudes with reflectivity of 45 dBZ were estimated to reach 12-14 km.Different from results from other countries that positive CGs(Cloud-to-ground lightnings) dominated during a time period centered at GJ,our study shows that negative CGs dominated during a time period centered at the GJ event and during most of the storm lifetime in this study,indicating a diversity of the lightning activity in the GJ-producing storms.It is interesting that two different storms produced two types of TLEs,that is,the GJ-producing storm only produced one GJ event during its lifetime and five sprites were produced over another storm,different from the other study that sprites and GJs were usually produced by the same storm,enriched the knowledge of GJ-producing storms.In addition,the GJ event in this study is located beyond the effective coverage area(30°S-30°N) of the ISUAL instruments onboard the FORMOSAT II satellite,and results of this study could be useful for GJ studies in the future.