关于Frailty模型可靠度的界

在生存分析领域,用于处理不能观察到的协变量的Frailty模型得到了广泛应用.论文首先研究Frailty模型中高风险群体和总体的各自生存函数的界.其次,给出当基本生存函数被错误地假定具有常数失效率时,总体生存函数最大误差的上界.最后,考虑用相对累积风险对具有不同基本生存函数但Frailty变量同分布的两个Frailty模型,并进行比较.     

白桦天然次生林种群生态特征的研究

采用样地调查的方法,对太岳山七里峪白桦林种群进行了年龄结构分析、编制了静态生命表、绘制了存活曲线,并对该种群的四个函数（生存函数、积累死亡函数、死亡密度函数、危险率函数）进行数量分析,结果表明：①七里峪白桦种群龄级分布,不同环境下种群结构稍有差异：种群A、种群D为增长型种群,种群B、种群C、种群E趋向于稳定型．②白桦种群存活曲线接近于DeeveyⅡ型．③积累死亡率单调上升,生存率呈单调下降,上升或下降幅度前期大于后期,说明白桦种群在前期死亡率高,而种群后期则相对稳定．④在未来20年、40年、60年和80年中,白桦种群将呈现老龄级株数先增后减的趋势,种群稳定性长期维持较为困难．     

基于Cesium框架的突发生物危害事件可视化智能决策支持平台

 面对全球范围内复杂多变的突发生物危害事件的新形势，为了满足突发生物危害事件模拟预测研究的迫切需求，本文基于开源的三维地理信息Cesium框架和WebGL技术，明确了突发生物危害事件决策平台的总体构架方案。在此基础上，建立了面向突发生物危害事件要素数据库，以生物恐怖袭击、生物入侵和突发传染病3种应用场景，实现了从仿真模拟、到危害评估、再到辅助决策与干预措施的功能模块，建立了一套三维地球场景的突发生物危害事件可视化智能决策支持平台。     

Spatial hazard analysis and prediction on rainfall—induced landslide using GIS

The application of landslide hazard model cou-pled with GIS provides an effective means to spatial hazard analysis and prediction on rainfall-induced landslides.A modified SINMAP model is established based upon the sys-tematic investigation on previous GIS-hased landslide analy-sis models.By integrating the landslide deterministic model with the hydrological distribution model based on DEM,this model deeply studied the effect of underground water dis-tribution due to reinfall on the slope stability and landslide occurrence,including the effect of dynamic water pressure resulting from the dowm slope seepage process as well as that of static water pressure.Its applicability has been testified on the Xiaojiang watershed,the rainfall-induced landslides widespread area in Southeast China.Detailed discussion WAS carried out on the spatial distribution characteristics of landslide hazard and its extending trend,as well as the quantitative relationship between landslide hazard with pre-cipitation,slope angle and specific catchment area in the Xiaojiang watershed.And the precipitation threshold for landslide occurrence was estimated.These analytical results are proved useful for geohazard control and engineering decision-making in the Xiaojiang watershed.     

基于准静电场的体域通信信道随机特性及系统性能仿真

 基于准静电场的体域通信技术是一种用于人随身电子设备互连的新方法。为研究人体运动对体域通信系统性能的影响,实验测量了人体静止、踏步和跑步3种状态下的信道增益,得到信道增益的累积分布函数,与多种常见统计分布类型相对比,发现其服从正态分布,并利用最大似然方法进行了分布参数估计,得到信道增益的均值、标准差和置信区间。基于信道分布特性,建立了信道统计模型以及系统仿真模型,并进行系统性能仿真,在高斯白噪声环境下通过仿真研究了人体运动对幅移键控系统误码率的影响,给出了体域通信信道建模和仿真的一般方法。结果表明,通信误码率随人体运动激烈程度增强而升高,但变化程度不大。     

苯乙烯-甲基丙烯酸甲酯-丙烯醛三元无皂乳液共聚合动力学研究

以苯乙烯 (St)、甲基丙烯酸甲酯 (MMA)为主单体 ,丙烯醛 (AL)为功能单体进行了无皂乳液批量共聚合 .考察了功能单体浓度、引发剂过硫酸铵ATP浓度及聚合温度对其动力学行为的影响 ,用Gamma积分函数拟合了转化率 -时间关系曲线 ,获得了聚合过程的重要特征参数如 :平均成核速率 (Nv) ,聚合最大速率(Mv)和平稳期平均聚合速率 (Av)及成核结束和聚合进入完成期对应的转化率 .同时对聚合速率与以上各聚合参数的关系数据进行了非线性拟合 ,得到了聚合速率与以上各单个聚合参数的关系式及综合关系式 .结果表明 :聚合速率随功能单体浓度、ATP浓度及聚合温度增大而增大 ,但增大幅度逐渐减小 ;聚合过程中ATP起决定作用 .     

Estimation of earthquake losses by using macroeconomic approach

Most earthquake loss studies use an inventory approach by which the predicted damages in various categories of structures and facilities in a concerned region are estimated and added together to obtain the total estimated. Such an approach requires a detailed inventory database of the structures and facilities in the region, which is not always readily available in many regions of the world. Therefore, an alternative means of estimating earthquake losses is used based on several macroeconomic indices such as the gross domestic product (GDP) and population. Based on the published earthquake loss data during 1980–1995, the relations between GDP and earthquake losses have been formulated empirically for several intensity ranges. The world’s land surface was divided into unit cells with 0.5° × 0.5° in size, the GDP of each cell was apportioned based on its population and the GDP and population of the region to which it belongs. The predicted seismic loss of the cell was then estimated from the seismic hazard probability function, its GDP and the empirical relation between GDP and seismic loss. Accordingly, a global seismic loss map is compiled. Employing readily available social economic data as the basis for the vulnerability analysis, the method enables us to obtain seismic loss estimates for regions without a detailed inventory of exposed structures or the required collateral geological information. Seismic loss estimates can also be upgraded easily with social economic data collection for the fast developing areas of the world.     

三参数Weibull分布的随机比较

给出了两个相互独立但不同分布的三参数Weibull分布随机变量满足各种随机序时其分布所含参数间的相应关系.也给出了两组相互独立但不同分布的随机变量次序统计量之间的随机序关系.     

基于累积矩生成函数多元响应降维子空间估计

结合多元响应降维子空间的矩生成函数估计和累积切片思想,提出了累积矩生成函数估计,并对样本估计量作改进.统计模拟结果表明,累积矩生成函数估计优于矩生成函数估计,改进的累积矩生成函数估计最优.     

Nakagami-m信道下认知中继网络的中断概率上界闭式解模型

为更准确地反映和评估无线信道衰落指数对认知中继网络中断性能的影响,提出了认知用户在Nakagami-m信道模型下的中断概率上界闭式解模型.首先在Nakagami-m信道模型下,对认知中继网络频谱重叠共享和最佳中继选择准则的联合约束限制进行分析,再利用分部积分推导出认知用户接收机信噪比的概率密度函数和累积分布函数,进而对概率密度函数进行条件积分,根据蕴合法则即事件概率不等式得出其中断概率上界闭式解模型.仿真结果表明:相比传统的瑞利信道模型,Nakagami-m信道模型下的中断概率闭式解能够反映信道衰落指数大于1时的系统中断性能,从而更准确地反映了实际信道衰落情况对认知中继网络的影响;此外,由于该闭式解模型考虑了主用户干扰限制条件,限制了认知用户的实际发射功率,因而降低了系统的中断概率.     

Mathematical approach to sedimentary component partitioning of polymodal sediments and its applications

Most continental sediments are composed of overlapped components, whose grain-size follows a type of distribution function. The components and the function type of a sample are determined on frequency and cumulative curves of grain-size distribution so as to designate the function formula. The function parameters can be estimated by fit ting designated function to measured grain-sized data of the sample, which simultaneously achieves numerical partitioning of the components. Genetic analysis of hydraulic and aeolian sediments demonstrates the following environmental impli cations. Fluvial sediment is composed of isolated saltation and suspension component. The sediment in drainage closed lakes is dominated by suspension silt-clay component, with little portion of saltatory sand. Fine sand conponent makes up a majority of desert sand overlapped with small portion of fine dust. Loess is composed of overlapped short-suspending silt component and long-suspension fine component. Long-suspension fine dust is the unique component of deep-sea aeo lian sediment. The fine component shows constant grain-size distribution and genetic connection from desert sand, loess of Northern China to Northern Pacific Ocean, which is transported mainly by westerly stream and dispersed in whole stratosphere to form the background dust.     

无穷期重复契约关系的动态模型

使用无穷期重复对策的基本框架进行分析,讨论无穷期重复道德风险模型.将最优契约定义为动态规划问题的值函数,在无穷期重复契约关系下,推广了在两期道德风险模型中所分析的结论,得到了刻画期望效用变化规律的表达式,证明了最优的契约仍然显示出某种记忆性.得出了当贴现率δ→1时,委托人的平均期望利润趋向于帕累托最优水平的命题,并解释了其经济学含义.     

竞争失效下多元退化建模的航空发动机可靠性分析

为了解决航空发动机的竞争失效下多元退化系统可靠性评估问题,提出一种多元退化失效和突发失效之间相关竞争失效的可靠性评估方法.以具有随机效应的非线性Wiener过程与Gamma过程描述退化失效过程,选择合适的Copula函数对多元退化失效相关性进行建模,通过马尔科夫链蒙特卡洛方法进行多元退化系统相关失效模型参数估计;引入Weibull分布描述突发失效时间,采用比例危险模型构建关于性能退化量的突发失效率函数,利用两步极大似然估计法识别模型参数.结合航空发动机的性能退化数据实现了竞争失效下多元退化系统可靠性评估,通过分析结果验证了模型的有效性与准确性.     

Effect on Stratum Gradient Frequency Distribution of Landslides in the Three Gorges Area of Northeast Chongqing

0IntroductionThe landslides are serious and widespread in the ThreeGorges Area.Bythe research of occurrencelawof land-slidein the Three Gorges Area,the government can forecastand prevent the disaster.It can also ensure the safety of oper-ation of Three Gorges Reservoir and it is of quite i mportantsignificance to ensure the continuous development of the econ-omyinthe Yangtze River valley[1-3].Manyfactors have played different rolesinthe process ofoccurrence and development of landslides.A…     

连续管全寿命安全评定与管理策略研究

连续管是"万能作业机"的"神经线",连续管的安全运行关乎整个施工过程,连续管服役寿命是安全运行的重要指标之一.目前对连续管作业时全寿命安全评定研究较少,探索性地利用生存分析方法研究了连续管6个影响因素,20组分变量,采用Kaplan-Meier分析方法对连续管疲劳寿命的单因素生存时间进行描述,并结合连续管服役有效时间采...     

子午岭马栏林区油松种群结构分析

利用生存分析理论,编制了子午岭马栏林区油松种群的静态生命表,分析了油松的径级结构及其密度变化规律;绘制了存活曲线,累积死亡率曲线,死亡密度曲线,危险率曲线及损失度曲线.结果表明:油松的平均密度随径级的增加而减少,反映了密度与径级之间存在着一种负相关性;油松种群存活曲线的变化趋势更接近DeeveyⅡ型,死亡高峰出现在前期和后期阶段.     

油水两相平面径向渗流压差时量理论研究

平面径向渗流过程中井底与油层外边界之间存在压差,为了研究压差随时间不断变化的情况下油水两相渗流,开展了压差时量概念的完善及其函数关系研究。利用径向流基本渗流理论推导压差时量的函数关系式,使用数值模拟方法和公式计算方法对具体算例进行计算对比。研究工作取得了较为理想结果,完善后的压差时量概念适用于平面径向渗流,分油水井两种情况,得到了压差时量与累计产液量或累计注水量之间的函数关系式,算例的数值模拟结果和公式计算结果相互符合。研究表明,根据油水井情况的不同,压差时量是累计产液量或累计注水量的函数;影响压差时量的因素有相对渗透率曲线、油黏度、水黏度、渗透率、单位厚度油层累计产液量或累计注水量、未打井外边界内单位厚度圆盘状油层的孔隙体积、单位厚度井筒半径内可容纳圆形多孔介质的孔隙体积。     

Driver''''s Critical Gap Calibration at Urban Roundabouts: A Case Study in China

Roundabouts have been used successfully in cities throughout the world and are wildly used in China. The critical gap is a required parameter for calculating the capacity of roundabouts and deciding the needs for stop signs. While many studies on gap acceptance characteristics at roundabouts have been car-ried out in America and Europe, few have been done in China. This study was conducted to calibrate the critical gap in a roundabout in China. The differences between critical gaps on different days (workdays and weekends) and during different times (rush hour and non rush hour) were checked. The study was per-formed at a three-lane roundabout formed by a two-way and four-lane local road and a six-lane divided ar-tery. The data was collected at this site by a video camera. The evaluations included the cumulative prob-ability distributions of the acceptable and rejected gaps which resulted in critical gaps for all cases. The re-sults show that the critical gap during the rush hour is shorter than after the rush hour, but the difference is not large and the cumulative probability distributions can be fit by the Iogit functional form with parameters estimated using linear regression.     

榛子中的杀虫剂残留GC-MS检测与膳食风险评估

【目的】对人工化学防治榛园中榛仁、果壳、叶片和土壤杀虫剂残留水平进行了检测,开展了榛仁的健康风险评估。【方法】在辽宁、吉林的10个地区、26个人工榛园分别采集了榛仁、果壳各26份,叶片、土壤样品各21份,用气相色谱-质谱联用仪(GC-MS)分析检测了9种有机磷类(organophosphates, OPs)、2种有机氯类(organochlorines, OCs)和8种除虫菊酯类(pyrethroids, PYs)杀虫剂的残留水平,利用急性危害指数、长期摄入危害指数和累积危害指数等指标评估消费者健康风险。【结果】在检测的94份样品中,45份样品检测出杀虫剂残留,其中29份样品中杀虫剂残留超出国家标准中最大残留限量。26个榛仁样品中,26.90%样品含有2种以上杀虫剂残留,11.54%样品含有5种以上杀虫剂残留;19.23%样品残留物高于最大残留限值;所有样品共检出13种杀虫剂;短期风险评估中的重要指标急性危害指数最高为2.45%;长期风险评估中的重要指标长期摄入危害指数最高为5.50%。榛仁中OPs、OCs和PYs杀虫剂累积危害指数(cumulative hazard index, cHI)分别为7.98%、0.08%、2.07%。【结论】榛园中杀虫剂残留种类较多,总体残留程度不高,且在榛仁中存在部分杀虫剂(13种)残留,但其急性危害指数及累积危害指数很小,摄入健康风险较小。