More reliable minority ethnic population estimates and proportions for local areas: which areas to select and other choices to be made--an exploratory analysis

Central and Local Government and other organisations are interested, for a variety of purposes, in obtaining better--more reliable--estimates of the proportions of the total populations in local authority districts which belong to the minority ethnic population. In inter-censal periods, this aim could be met, for example, by an increase in the size of the Labour Force Survey sample in selected areas. This article considers the optimal sample size for each area under different criteria to improve the reliability of its estimated minority ethnic proportion.     

The ethnic minority populations of Great Britain--latest estimates

This article looks at the latest estimates of the ethnic minority populations living in private households in Great Britain. It also highlights differences between the various ethnic groups in relation to geographical distribution, sex and age structure, people living alone and people born in the UK.     

Social inequalities in later life: the socio-economic position of older people from ethnic minority groups in Britain

There are now nearly a quarter of a million individuals aged 60 years or over belonging to ethnic minority groups living in Britain. As the ethnic minority groups in Britain continue to age, information regarding their circumstances in later life will be of increasing importance for the development of appropriate services and policy. This article uses data from the General Household Survey (1991-96) to investigate the household living arrangements, lifestyle, socio-economic status, economic resources and experience of multiple deprivation in later life amongst older people from ethnic minority groups in Britain. The findings indicate that there are significant differences both between and within ethnic minority groups in access to material and social resources, which need to be taken into account by policy makers and planners.     

Stability and change in ethnic groups in England and Wales

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) Longitudinal Study (LS) is an exceptional resource for exploring dynamic processes in individuals' lives for a representative sample of the population of England and Wales and across a thirty year period, including how those processes vary by ethnic group. However, analyses tend to assume a certain stability in the meaning of the ethnic group being studied: the insights into ethnic group differentiation are premised on the fact that the group has the same meaning over time. Here we show how the LS allows us to challenge such notions of group stability. This has practical implications for the ways we measure and conceive of Britain's minority ethnic groups. We illustrate this point with two examples: one exploring the change in ethnic group identification by the same individuals between 1991 and 2001, and the second exploring how loss to follow up is differentially experienced according to ethnic group. We provide some suggestions on the implications of this ethnic group instability for other research.     

25 years of Population Trends

This article monitors some of the more significant demographic changes over the last twenty-five years, depicted in various issues of Population Trends. It is, of necessity, selective in coverage in terms of quotes, figures and topics. Other articles in this issue go into more depth on specific topics, such as families, ethnic minority groups, marriage and divorce, health inequalities and fertility and family planning. Consequently, there is some overlap and the articles could usefully be cross-referenced. Some coverage is also given to the development of sources, international events and selected partnerships outside the Office. Relevant legislation enacted over the period is also mentioned.     

The Millennium Cohort Study

The Millennium Cohort Study is the latest in the line of British birth cohort studies. MCS resembles its predecessors which follow people born in 1946, 1958 and 1970 in the intention to become multi-purpose longitudinal data resource charting many aspects of individual's lives over time. The families of a sample of around 20,000 babies are being interviewed during 2001-02, when eligible babies reach 9 months, to establish the conditions from which they set out in life. The survey contrasts with the previous cohort studies in various ways. Instead of taking all births in one week, the sample of births is spread over a year; the births are from a selection of electoral wards, thereby enabling eventual analysis by neighbourhood characteristics; it also over samples children living in deprived areas, wards with high ethnic minority populations and samples have been boosted in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The latter UK country has not been covered by the other studies. It interviews fathers as well as mothers, and given that its initial funding comes via the ESRC, puts a greater emphasis on socio-economic data than in early parts of the other studies. MCS has been enhanced by additional Government funding. The research team, based at the Institute of Education, aims to deposit a multi-purpose dataset for public use at the ESRC data Archive in the Spring of 2003.     

Fragmented life courses: the changing profile of Britain's ethnic populations

This article describes the potential of the Longitudinal Study to analyse different ethnic groups by broad period of entry. This is illustrated with the use of one variable (childlessness), but could be the basis for further analytical work on other variables. Each group has a unique demographic profile, which is largely explained by its migration history. Migration influences important life course transitions. Differences between more established residents (present in 1981 and 1991) and less established residents (present in 1991 only) imply that generalisations for the entire ethnic group or future generations should not be made.     

民营金字塔结构下控制性少数股东隧道效应研究——来自我国上市公司的经验证据

在对控制性少数股东做出清晰界定的基础上,运用我国民营上市公司的非平衡面板数据,考察了民营金字塔结构下控制性少数股东剥夺外部股东的隧道效应.结果表明:在保证控制权的情况下,控制性少数股东所持有的现金流权越小,其隧道挖掘越严重;处于金字塔底层的公司资产利润率越低,控制性少数股东越倾向于对其进行隧道挖掘;投资者保护越差,越有利于控制性少数股东的隧道挖掘.相反,在投资者保护较好的企业,即使控股股东的现金流权较小,即使其资产收益率较低,也不会发生严重的掏空行为.     

西北地区少数民族居民户外肉类消费行为选择

当前国内针对少数民族群体的食品消费行为研究成果尚不多见,而这部分群体在我国的饮食消费中是一个重要而独特的消费群体,因此有必要对其消费行为进行深入研究.由于西北地区少数民族居民肉类消费以羊肉为主,所以本文以新疆维吾尔族、哈萨克族、回族等居民羊肉消费为例,利用调研数据,通过建立二元Logistic模型,深入分析少数民族居民饮食习俗、食品质量安全等因素对其户外羊肉消费行为的影响.研究结果表明:饮食风俗的关注程度、消费环境的关注度、对羊肉质量安全的关心程度、家庭年收入显著正向影响少数民族居民的户外羊肉消费行为;重大节日消费的重要程度、对政府食品安全监管的信任程度显著负向影响少数民族居民的户外羊肉消费行为.     

1990以来中国农业可持续发展态势定量分析

以可持续发展理论为指导,尝试构建中国农业可持续发展综合评价指标体系,围绕人口、经济、资源生态、社会伦理4个维度选取了28个指标,经AHP方法给指标赋权,运用综合指数模型对1990～2005年中国农业可持续发展水平和各维度间的协调度进行定量分析。研究结果表明：中国农业可持续发展水平综合得分逐年增高,人口、经济、资源生态、社会伦理4个维度间协调度得分却在逐年下降;经济、资源生态、社会伦理等维度呈可持续发展态势,人口维度呈非可持续发展态势。据此认为,实现中国农业可持续发展一定要牢固树立农业可持续发展的科学发展观;高度重视人口、经济、资源生态和社会伦理的协调发展;迅速提升农业劳动力素质;大力发展环境保护型农业。图3,表2,参13。     

少数民族地区与东部发达地区发展经济的协同效应研究

从经济发展的生产要素角度分析,少数民族地区与东部发达地区各有优势;从协同理论的高度研究,少数民族地区与东部发达地区必须实现资源共享,才能优势互补,扬长避短,才能更有规模、更有效率的发展。作者认为少数民族地区发展经济运用协同效应的模式,可选择资源带动型、商业集群、非公经济为主体等模式;并提出了6条措施,帮助和培养少数民族地区的造血功能。     

企业终极所有者"掏空"行为的影响因素

运用我国2001-2005民营上市公司的非平衡面板数据，考察了民营金字塔结构下终极所有者掏空底层公司的影响因素。研究发现：在保证控制权的情况下，终极所有者所持有的现金流权越小，其对企业的掏空越严重；处于金字塔底层的公司资产利润率越低，终极所有者越倾向于对其进行掏空；投资者保护越差，越有利于终极所有者的掏空行为。相反，在投资者保护较好的企业，即使终极所有者的现金流权较小，即使其资产收益率较低，也不会发生严重的掏空行为。     

少数服从多数选择原则的多目标方法

少数服从多数是实际中广泛采用的一种选择原则。本文通过用效用函数表示集体(委员会)中每一个体的偏好, 将少数服从多数选择问题描述成一个多目标决策问题(MMOD)在, 在对个体和效用函数只作某种连续性假定下, 得到了少数服从多数选择的存在性定理并用集值映射不动点定理给出了证明。通过在不同空间上构造委员会的偏好结构, 指出了这种偏好的锥诱导性和这种偏好的有效选择与多目标决策问题(MMOD)的M-解之间的等价性。     

MG模型模拟我国金融市场格式化特征的研究

利用正态概率作图、R/S分析和自相关函数分析等方法,发现在高频数据下(时间长度为15分钟),以上证指数和深成指数为代表的我国金融市场存在出收益率的"肥尾"、"集聚"和相关性等格式化特征,同时利用基于MG模型的"生产者-投机者"模拟市场模拟这些特征.这项工作的意义在于,由于MG模型可以同时进行数值和解析分析,因而基于MG的模拟市场的研究为定量分析真实市场提供了一条可能的途径.     

1990～2007年中国矿产资源型城市全要素生产率的动态实证分析

运用基于DEA的Malmquist指数法研究了1990～2007年我国50个地级以上资源型城市全要素生产率的变动状况,并将其分解为技术效率和技术进步,发现在此期间,我国资源型城市的全要素生产率略有增长,平均增长率为0.8%,其增长主要得益于技术效率的提高。在此基础上,论文对不同区域、不同类别的矿产资源城市进行了比较,发现其全要素生产率由于技术水平的不同而存在明显差异。     

中国上市公司资本结构行业间差异实证研究

将沪深A股上市公司进行行业分类,以长期负债率为指标,比较全面地实证研究了资本结构的行业间差异.研究结果表明:1.不同行业上市公司的资本结构具有显著差异,但这种差异是由少数行业与其它行业间的差异引起的,这与已有的研究结果不同;2.约10.5%的公司间资本结构差异可由公司所处行业的不同来解释;3.同一行业上市公司的资本结构具有稳定性,行业间差异也具有稳定性.     

群体决策中的民主方法

本文提出了一种新的群体决策方法：群体决策民主方法。它能求解等级划分与群体评价两类不同问题。该方法引进和应用了决策度、名义等级隶属度和实际等级隶属度等概念, 建立了“少数服从多数”的民主原则, 并充分利用个体决策信息使群体决策结果符合多数人的意见。     

Estimates of the population by ethnic group for areas within England

This article describes, and provides some initial analysis of, the experimental population estimates by ethnic group for areas within England published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in January 2006. The article considers growth and the population structure of each of the ethnic groups identified in the 2001 Census; subnational patterns of change; population turnover; and measures of diversity and segregation, and also provides a comparison of the estimates and corresponding sample-based estimates from the Labour Force Survey.     

世界食物消费需求变动对我国食物出口贸易影响的实证分析

我国食物贸易增长较快。回归分析表明，1984年以来，世界食物消费需求变动是促使我国食物出口贸易增长的最重要因素。基于CMS模型的分析的结果是，20世纪90年代以来，世界食物消费需求在推动我国食物出口贸易增长方面起着重要作用，但在不同时段，其作用大小有变化。