Using Generic Structures in System Dynamics Model Building: Reflection from Modeling for Indian Shrimp Industry

The paper focused on how a system dynamics modeler could reduce model development and testing time by using “Generic Structures” as an interim benchmark between causal loop diagram and stock flow diagram. Using generic structures as a benchmark could prevent the modeler from including redundant structures to the model and getting affected by personal biases that in turn could reduce repetitive amendments to the model during model testing. Indian Shrimp Industry, during 1990–2010, sequentially showed an early growth, a hasty decline, a combative rejuvenation, and an inexorable re-decline behavior in terms of the annual shrimp production and production capacity. Average Yield continuously fluctuated throughout the Industry’s life cycle during 1990–2010. Breaking such progressive behavior into temporal units, we found that the unit behaviors resemble with the behaviors of generic structures like, exponential growth, goal-seeking, S-shaped growth, limits to success, and overshoot-and-collapse. We, using the related generic structures as the interim benchmarks, illustrated a step-by-step modeling exercise for studying the dynamic behavior of Indian Shrimp Industry during 1990–2010. The paper concluded that using generic structures as the benchmark during system dynamics modeling improved the efficiency and the effectiveness of model building due to reduction in model building and testing time.     

“公司+ 农户”规模经营系统的反馈基模生成集分析

在笔者原提出的系统动力学流率基本入树规范性建模法的基础上,讨论了一个确定的复杂系统的系统基模生成的问题.给出了用系统动力学流率基本入树作嵌运算生成反馈极小基模,由极小基模构成反馈基模生成集的具体方法,其中给出了生成基模的三个定理.此基模生成集可生成系统的具特性的各类基模结构.此基模生成集相当于数学线性空间的基础解析.这为对一个复杂系统进行基模反馈分析提供了一个有效分析工具.运用此新建立的反馈基模生成法,对"公司+农户"规模经营模式进行了优势与制约因素的有效分析,并提出了相应的管理方针,实现了用系统科学方法有效分析"三农"(农业、农村、农民)问题的目的.     

2010 BP Oil Spill and the Systemic Construct of the Gulf Coast Shrimp Supply Chain

On April 20, 2010, the blast on the rig Deepwater Horizon, and the ensuing disaster known as the BP oil spill, has disrupted the Gulf Coast Shrimp supply chain. Six elements of the systemic supply and demand side of that supply chain are identified and discussed. On the supply side are shrimpers, processors, wholesalers, retailers, and restaurants. On the demand side is the consumer. Qualitative investigative methods shed light upon the systemic practice within the gulf coast shrimp industry in the United States.     

Use of Archetypal Structures in Urban Dynamics

The paper demonstrates the use of systems archetypes as a practical method to understand the impact of urban policies and programs on urban dynamics. Systems archetypes are generic templates to represent the structural and behavioral insights in dynamic systems. They highlight counterintuitive behavior of social systems and the recursive nature of complex systems. This paper maps systems archetypes pertaining to the failures in urban programs, as described by Prof. J.W. Forrester in his classic book Urban Dynamics. ‘Fixes that backfire’ is a systems archetype that construes a situation where a fix effective in a short term creates long term behavioral side effects which might need even more fixes. This archetype is mapped onto the failures in urban programs. The insights to the reasons of failures of urban programs through the systems archetypes lens will enable us bring a change in the society and assist policy makers by being cautious of the unintended consequences while devising urban policies. Therefore, an approach has been proposed to deal with urban change by applying archetypal structures to urban problems. The approach illustrated in this paper will enable urban governors and planners, distinguish programs and policies that may or may not lead to desired dynamics.     

Read Between the Lines; the Emancipatory Nature of Formative Annotative Feedback on Draft Assignments

Policy guidelines promoting best practice for annotation feedback on draft assignments risk neutralising lecturers’ feedback and higher education potential as an emancipatory pedagogy. Annotation use within higher education is more complex than its definition suggests compounded by a lack of supporting evidence and a largely inductive practice. With emphasis placed on receiving formative annotative feedback on draft assignments lecturers’ can empower students’ skills for lifelong learning and closing the gap between actual and desired performance on assessed work. Analysis of findings from a survey methodology, questionnaires (students’ n = 600, lecturers’ n = 112) and feedback comments are discussed with literature published from 1997 to 2009. Themes impacting on formative annotation feedback and educational transformation were identified. Students’ (n = 13, 2.17% response rate) felt frustrated by feedback requiring them to ‘read between the lines’ and interpret the lecturer’s actual intended message. Lecturers’ (n = 22, 19.64% response rate) indicated they valued feedback but despite preceding summative, formative annotative feedback was perceived to be indistinct from summative feedback. The generic nature of feedback policy, guidelines and literature reinforces this perception. In reality the different timing and aims of formative annotation means that feedback generalities maybe unhelpful.     

油田安全作业虚拟仿真训练系统研究

利用虚拟现实技术构建油田安全作业虚拟仿真训练系统,提供交互式训练功能。提出了封闭式演示、指南式向导操作和开放式自由操作三种培训模式,给出了油田安全作业虚拟仿真训练系统的开发框架,定义了虚拟人基本动作及其参数化表示,解决了行为定义以及可重用性问题,并对虚拟人的操作手形进行了分类。最后从感知环境、行为控制、运动控制和碰撞检测四个方面分析了场景驱动执行引擎的功能,协调虚拟人和操作物体的交互活动,控制虚拟场景的变化。本系统的应用有效地解决了油田安全作业培训的成本、安全和效果问题。     

New model for load-sharing k-out-of-n: G system with different components

On the basis of capacity flow model, a new model is developed for a load-sharing k-out-of-n： G system consisting of different components, to describe the increase of the same component＇s failure rates under different loads. All components have exponential life distributions and are nonrepairable in the system. Reliability of load- sharing 2-out- of-3： G system is calculated and some special cases for the system are discussed. The calculation and discussions show that the model is right and practical.     

小世界网络V.S.均匀混合网络中的SIRS型传染病模型

在现实复杂情形下(包含非线性传染率、有隔离措施、群外个体迁入、生育与死亡以及疾病可水平和垂直传播等),比较研究小世界网络中的SIRS型传染病模型与均匀混合SIRS型传染病模型的疾病动态传播行为,以及相同疾病控制策略在两种传染病模型上的效果。数值仿真研究发现:1)动态行为特征仅与模型参数有关的均匀混合SIRS型传染病模型不能准确刻画小世界网络中的传染病传播行为。2)源于均匀混合SIRS型传染病模型的控制策略(如强化隔离染病个体、限制易感群体迁入、提高染病个体死亡率以及控制疾病垂直传播等)适用于控制小世界网络中的传染病,但效果有显著差异。3)小世界网络中的SIRS型传染病的控制策略中,存在一个最佳的染病个体死亡率阈值。     

INCREASING RETURNS TO SCALE,DYNAMICS OF INDUSTRIAL STRUCTURE AND SIZE DISTRIBUTION OF FIRMS

1. Introduction In the past decades, the evolutionary perspective has contributed lot to the economics (Arthur and Durlauf et al 1997, Dosi and Nelson 1994, Aruka 2001). The economy is studied as an evolving complex system with many features in complexity such as nonlinear interactions and emergent properties. In reality, the economic system consists of many adaptive agents. They learn from each other, and their values may be influenced by others’ values and actions. These interactions amo…     

A Case of Energy and Ecology System Development and a New Approach to System Dynamics Modeling

1　IntroductionIn our previous subject concerned with the development of energy and ecology systemengineering[1 ] ,we have proposed SD rate variable fundamental in- tree modeling and,then,built the model of this system which totally included six in- trees with this newapproach.But the difficulty in locating all feedback loops is a barrier on the way of ourfurther research on the feedback structure and functions of the complex system.Therefore,a new algebraic method named after SD branch- vec…     

区域经济快速增长阶段生态环境可持续发展敏感性分析

目的。研究陕西省经济快速增长阶段生态环境可持续能力的总体变化态势,以求为制定政策服务。方法。借用气候突变原理．采用Mann—Kendall方法判定陕西省经济快速增长阶段;从生态环境生产潜力、人类活动影响、生态环境效应和社会响应4个主题出发,构建了包含37个指标的陕西省生态环境可持续发展评价指标体系。在主题层内部采用权重积（WP）方法构建了生态环境生产潜力指数等4个主题子指数,然后采用主成分分析方法和相关分析方法对影响各子指数变化的主导因素进行分析,最后采用欧式距离法计算研究区1989—2006年的综合环境生态指数并对其变化态势进行分析。结果。1989。1997年研究区综合可持续发展能力总体保持稳定,略有下降;1997～2006年综合可持续发展能力得到显著提高,特别是2000年西部大开发以来呈现出跨越式的进步,这主要归功于加大社会响应、减小人类活动影响,从而降低了生态环境效应、增强了生态环境生产潜力。结论。区域经济快速发展阶段经济发展对生态环境造成巨大压力,但通过加大社会响应、资源的循环利用,可以实现资源环境的可持续发展。图10,参22。     

A novel approach to characterizing hesitations in intuitionistic fuzzy numbers

Building upon the concept of D_a operator introduced by Atanassov(1989),this article proposes an improved objective approach and a hybrid approach to operationalize D_a so that the hesitation in an intuitionistic fuzzy number(IFN) can be further refined and characterized.Numerical experiments are carried out to demonstrate the features and novelty of the proposed approach compared to existing methods in the literature.The aim is to furnish an effective way to refine hesitations in intuitionistic fuzzy assessments for more reliable and confident decision aids.     

Morality materialized: Notes on public prevention as a policy system

Public prevention is discussed as a policy system that owes its coherence to a number of “constitutive principles” rather than to an institutional fabric of its own. Notions from Luhmann's autopoietic social systems theory are combined with some recent developments in discourse analysis to outline this discussion theoretically. As to the constitutive principles, first, it is argued that public prevention is negatively constituted by its divorce from the regular healthcare system. Second, it is demonstrated that the constitutive principles of the public prevention system itself stem from the basic insecurities of this type of social policy. Public prevention strategies always have to impose themselves on existing (social) policy fields, and, more importantly, they often intrude upon people's private lives. That is why they tend to locate responsibility “outside,” moralizing the environment and moralizing things.     

Modeling and optimization of cyclic hoist schedules in an electroplating line

This paper deals with the modeling, analysis and optimization of a specific kind of real industrial problems. This class of problems is known in the literature as Cyclic Hoist Scheduling Problem (CHSP). In such class of problems, several jobs have to flow through a production line according to an ordered bath sequence. The CHSPs appear in the manufacturing facilities to achieve a mass production and to search a repetitive sequence of moves for the hoist. In this paper, we develop P-Temporal Petri Net models to represent the behavior and validate certain qualitative properties of the basic production line. Afterward, complex configurations of the production line are modeled and their properties such as reachability of desired functioning (cyclic operation), deadlock-free, resource sharing and management are checked and validated. A mathematical analysis and a simulation study of all proposed Petri net models are carried out using mathematical fundaments of Petri nets and a Visual Object Net ++ tool. The second part of the paper deals with the development of a mixed integer linear programming models to optimize processing of each line configuration. Optimal manufacturing plans of the studied system with cyclic processing sequences are defined and the feasibility of optimal cyclic scheduling of each configuration is proved.     

虚拟场景展示系统研究

基于软件平台MultiGen Creator和Vega，开发出了集漫游、设计与一体的虚拟场景展示系统。文中分析了该系统实现的整体结构及开发过程，论述了仿真模型的获得、纹理的处理、模型的转换和简化等技术的实现，以及Vega中有关自由度控制、碰撞检测、输入控制、文字声音提示信息、地图提示功能、物体的拾取等编程设计。结果表明，开发的虚拟场景展示系统，可广泛用于建筑布局规划、房地产效果展示等领域，具有良好的市场前景。     

Social Entropy Theory: An overview

Social Entropy Theory (SET) is a very general macrosociological systems theory. The present paper is an overview which presents selected salient features of the larger model. Special attention is given to the specification of macrosociological variables which can serve as social indicators in a comparative framework of societal development. First, the goals of the SET model are stated. Then the basic model is sketched, and entropy is discussed as a measure of system state. Attention then turns to the specification of a holistic set of macrosociological systems variables. By seeking all correlates of the level (L), six salient global components are developed. These are population (P), information (I), spatial area (S), technology (T), organization (O), and level of living (L). This PISTOL (or PILOTS) model seems to be exhaustive and forms a comparative framework (when suitable indicators are specified for all components) for the analysis of social systems at all levels of development. A distinction is made among global, mutable, and immutable properties.     

网络信息传播动力学建模研究

对网络传播机理建模是利用或控制网络传播的基础。网络信息传播系统具有复杂的动力学特征,其中的个体行为具有适应性。采用社会物理学研究思路,借鉴物理学振动传播的概念,对网络传播系统中各动力学因子进行了类比定义。根据动力学因子对网民传播行为的影响机理,建立具有随机性和适应性的网民信息传播微观动力学模型,使微观个体行为与宏观的系统状态关联起来。在此基础上构建仿真模型,通过仿真实验分析了网络传播系统S型函数的非线性演化特征,为类似系统的建模提供了新思路。

Abstract：

Modeling the mechanism of information diffusion is the basis of network diffusion utilizing and controlling. The diffusion of information on the Internet is with dynamical complexity, and the individual behavior is adaptive. Adopting the thinking in social physics, the dynamic factors in the information diffusion system on the analog of the spread of vibration in physics was defined. Then the microscopic dynamic model of net user’s randomicity and adaptability behavior was quantitatively built based on the mechanism of dynamic factor taking effect on the behavior of net users. In this way, the microscopic behavior was associated with system evolution at macro level. Simulation software was developed based on those models. The S_shape nonlinear evolution characteristics of information diffusion on the Internet with computing experiments were analyzed. This solution may be used in modeling similar systems.     

New results on system of generalized quasi-Ky Fan inequalities with set-valued mappings in topological semilattice spaces

Under new assumptions, this paper obtains some extended versions of Ky Fan type inequality for a family of C-continuous set-valued mappings in the setting of topological semilattices. The obtained results are new and different from the corresponding known results in the literature. Some special cases of the main result are also discussed. Some examples are given to illustrate the results.     

The Contribution of Innovation Strategy Development and Implementation in Active Facilitation of Pharmaceutical Front End Innovation

Front end innovation (FEI) represents the first building blocks of product development, but is often regarded as a weak link in innovation literature. Various theorists emphasize that a firm??s innovation can benefit substantially by improving the front end of innovation process (Reinertsen, Res Technol Manag 42:23?C31, 1999; Stevens and Burly, Res Technol Manag 46(2):16?C25, 2003; Verworn et al., R&D Manag 38(1):1?C19, 2008) and that innovation strategies play a central role in optimization of innovation (Clark and Wheelwright, Leading product development, Free Press, New York, 1995; Cottam et al., Eur J Innov Manag 4:88?C94, 2001; Morgan and Berthon, J Manag Stud 45(8):1329?C1353, 2008). Innovation strategies are suggested in literature (e.g. Page, J Prod Innov Manag 10:273?C287, 1993; Oke, J Change Manag 2(3):272?C281, 2002; Adams et al., Int J Manag Rev 8(1):21?C47, 2006; Igartua et al., Res Technol Manag May?CJune:41?C52, 2010) as a facilitator of innovation and may therefore also be targeted at FEI support. The pharmaceutical industry has experienced a worldwide decline in the number of applications for new molecular entities to regulatory agencies since 1997. Therefore high pressures are put on pharmaceutical research and FEI to produce more valid candidates and faster for drug development. This paper explores how pharmaceutical FEI can be actively supported through the development and implementation of an innovation strategy. The empirical field and applied methodology is an action oriented longitudinal case study of a Danish pharmaceutical company. The findings and key learnings from the study are presented as propositions of how innovation strategies can be applied to actively facilitate FEI and with measurable results.