四川芦山Ms 7.0级地震震源机制解初步研究

 震源机制解研究是认识地震发震断层的重要手段,也是理解深部构造应力和地震发震机理的重要依据。2013年4月20日四川芦山发生M_s 7.0级地震,利用近震直达P波初动极性反演了地震机制解,同时利用全球地震台网波形记录,反演了地震机制解和矩心深度。两种方法所得发震断层走向倾角滑动角分别为208°/41°/98°和220°/46°/93°,表明这次地震为一高角度逆冲型地震,远震波形反演得到的矩心深度为12km。     

多源数据联合反演权比确定及玉树地震同震断层滑动分布反演研究

为了更好地研究重力场对地壳形变、活动断层、地震等动力学过程的时变响应,需要建立动态地壳形变模型,研究重力、形变与地震波数据联合反演活动断层参数的相关理论及方法,进行活动断层潜在地震的危险性评估,探讨强震发生的动力学背景。该报告主要介绍两个方面的研究内容:一方面是如何表述反演数据中多源数据的权矩阵,通过引入虚拟观测方程将断层滑动的连续性约束一并纳入观察方程,采用Helmert方差分量估计确定各类观测数据的权比,推导了相关理论公式。另一方面,利用In SAR和GPS资料提取了Iwaki和Kita-Ibarake两个余震区典型余震的同震形变场,以及结合In SAR干涉图形状和方位向偏移量法对发震断层的几何参数进行约束。在此基础上,采用弹性半空间矩形位错模型对这两个强余震的同震滑动分布进行反演,得到的最大滑动量分别为3.28 m和0.98 m。最后利用余震的断层作为接收断层,计算了Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki静态库仑应力对余震作用的大小,结果显示Iwaki和Kita-Ibarake研究区的余震近似为纯正断层类型的浅源地震,静态库仑应力在两个研究区的最大值分别为1.1 MPa和0.7 MPa,表明Mw 9.0 Tohoku-Oki地震对研究区的余震触发是有促进作用的。     

PP波和PS波联合反演研究进展

 随多波多分量地震勘探的发展,PP波和PS波联合反演方法研究在近年取得了一定进展。PS波是S波的一种,无法在流体中传播,因此对岩石组构的内部构造更为敏感。联合使用PP波和PS波数据,可以提高从多波地震数据中推导弹性阻抗和岩石性质参数的能力,减少地震反演中的不确定性。本文综述近年PP波和PS波联合反演方法的发展。简述了PP波和PS波联合反演的基本理论,所有的联合反演方法都是基于PP波和PS波反射系数的Aki-Richards近似公式。其次,常用联合反演方法的算法及其反演结果参数。因为使用了相互独立的PP波和PS波数据,联合反演方法的算法比单独的PP波反演更为稳定。展望了PP波和PS波联合反演方法的发展趋势。     

高精度构造模型在密井网储层预测及剩余油挖潜中的应用

井间砂体的刻画是目前油田开发中后期密井网区储层描述及剩余油挖潜的重点。针对目前反演构造建模难题,利用井震结合离散光滑插值方法建立层位,使其符合井点分层和井间地震趋势,并在此基础上利用局部分区建模方法进行层位与断层交切,从而建立高精度的反演构造模型。以北一断东区块为研究对象,建立了研究区S、P、G层位高精度反演构造模型及其约束下的反演数据体,提高了井间及断层区域的储层预测精度,并在B1-A21—B1-A22井区的剩余油挖潜中见到实效。     

改进的方位各向异性地震反演裂缝预测技术及应用

在有限(窄)方位各向异性叠前地震反演裂缝预测技术中,如何克服噪音对反演结果的影响,一直是地震反演预测裂缝中的难题。通过对Rüger公式的近似、简化与改进,有效分离地震数据中的有效信号和噪音的效果。在地震反演中,结合成像测井解释裂缝成果,选定最合理的压噪因子参与反演计算。采用该计算方法预测裂缝密度与方位分布,不仅与成像测井吻合率较高,而且为井间裂缝预测提供了可靠的依据。在塔里木盆地YB1井区奥陶系鹰山组碳酸盐岩裂缝储层预测中应用效果较好,成功预测出该区裂缝主要在断层附近较发育,在构造隆起的东北部,裂缝发育程度较高,是该区油气进一步勘探开发的有利区域。     

阿克陶MW6.6地震的发震构造及滑动特征

2016年11月25日新疆阿克陶发生了M_W6.6地震。通常震中所处断层的破裂特性与周围区域应力场的动力学特征具有紧密的联系。通过对发震构造断层的精确刻画以及区域地壳中应力释放细节的深入探究,可以加深对发震构造周围地震动力学特征的认识,同时也对判定当地未来一段时间内的地震活动趋势提供了重要参考。首先搜集整理了震源附近的26条余震震源机制,利用网格搜索法反演得到震中附近的应力场,发现该地区主压应力方向为157.36°,倾伏角为1.15°,主张应力方向为66.56°,倾伏角为34.98°,与该地所处的帕米尔高原陆内俯冲形成近东西向断裂的右旋走滑兼有逆冲的背景相一致;然后利用389条余震精定位数据,结合高斯-牛顿算法和模拟退火算法拟合得到发震断层面的走向为103.64°、倾角为65.65°,这与木吉右旋走滑断裂的几何特征基本重合;将所求应力场投影到断层上,得到滑动角为152.77°,该地震表现为右旋走滑断层;最后利用本研究获得的区域应力张量模拟得到的该状态下的各种形状断层面的相对应力分布,发现该地震发生的断层面的相对剪应力接近1,破裂方向与震源区的最优剪切力方向相同,表明...     

拓频地震数据在测井约束反演中应用的效果分析

地震资料的分辨率影响地震反演的储层预测精度。拓宽地震频带是地震反演工作之前的一个重要步骤。尝试子波压缩技术。该技术是在叠后地震资料上直接进行拓频,拓频处理后的地震数据频带比常规处理的地震数据带宽高出约20 hz,在此基础上综合利用测井资料的纵向分辨率和地震的横向采样点密集的优势,进行地震反演。经过3口校验井的检验,砂体预测结果吻合程度较高,说明拓频处理后的地震数据在一定程度上提高了地震分辨率。     

用多层前馈网络进行三维储层参数反演的方法

地震反演的主要任务是依据地震资料并综合利用地质、测井等资料得到地下地层的详细信息。三维地震反演需要处理庞大的地震数据体，同时在反演过程中既要考虑模型和测井的约束，又要考虑地震在横向上的连续性。将地震反演看作是地震数据到储层参数的模糊映射，并利用神经网络建立了这种映射关系。针对网络收敛速度慢、学习时间长等缺陷，提出了一种学习率自适应调整算法。该算法使每个权都有自己的学习率，使网络的训练速度大幅度提高。利用该方法进行地震反演，抛开了褶积模型的限制，也无须已知地震子波。外推过程是在三维空间内进行的，所得的储层参数数据体保持了横向上合理自然的连续性。对该数据体进行三维可视化解释，可以直接描述储层的空间展布。     

人工智能在拾取地震P波初至中的应用 ——以汶川地震余震序列为例

为了准确而迅速地拾取大量地震事件的P波初至, 将深度学习方法引入微地震P波初至到时拾取研究中, 对卷积神经网络的结构进行改造, 以便适应地震波形数据的特点 P波初至拾取的要求。该算法只需要输入10 s窗口的三分量地震波形数据, 就可以自动地判定P波初至时刻, 无需扫描连续波形, 运算时间远远小于长短窗、模板匹配等传统方法。使用该算法训练汶川地震主震后2008年7—8月7467条人工拾取的余震P波初至到时, 将得到的模型对测试集中 1867条数据的计算结果与人工拾取结果对比, 误差小于0.5 s者占比达到98.9%。在低信噪比条件下, 该方法仍能保持较好的拾取能力。     

基于地应力实测值的断层构造区域地应力场有限元回归反演分析

结合四川省长河坝水电站地下厂房硐室工程,考虑地形、地貌与断层等地质构造,建立了三维有限元模型,基于实测地应力值,采用多元线性回归分析方法对地应力场进行反演,以分析地下厂房区的地应力分布情况.结果表明：地下厂房硐室岩体地应力的实测值与有限元法所得反演值吻合较好,回归分析方法适用于对地应力场的反演;工程区域的水平地应力大于竖向地应力,并且地应力量值随着垂直埋深与水平埋深的增加而增大;断层附近的地应力出现了局部应力集中现象,须引起注意.     

Indonesian earthquake: earthquake risk from co-seismic stress

Following the massive loss of life caused by the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake in Indonesia and its tsunami, the possibility of a triggered earthquake on the contiguous Sunda trench subduction zone is a real concern. We have calculated the distributions of co-seismic stress on this zone, as well as on the neighbouring, vertical strike-slip Sumatra fault, and find an increase in stress on both structures that significantly boosts the already considerable earthquake hazard posed by them. In particular, the increased potential for a large subduction-zone event in this region, with the concomitant risk of another tsunami, makes the need for a tsunami warning system in the Indian Ocean all the more urgent.     

Remote triggering of deep earthquakes in the 2002 Tonga sequences

It is well established that an earthquake in the Earth's crust can trigger subsequent earthquakes, but such triggering has not been documented for deeper earthquakes. Models for shallow fault interactions suggest that static (permanent) stress changes can trigger nearby earthquakes, within a few fault lengths from the causative earthquake, whereas dynamic (transient) stresses carried by seismic waves may trigger earthquakes both nearby and at remote distances. Here we present a detailed analysis of the 19 August 2002 Tonga deep earthquake sequences and show evidence for both static and dynamic triggering. Seven minutes after a magnitude 7.6 earthquake occurred at a depth of 598 km, a magnitude 7.7 earthquake (664 km depth) occurred 300 km away, in a previously aseismic region. We found that nearby aftershocks of the first mainshock are preferentially located in regions where static stresses are predicted to have been enhanced by the mainshock. But the second mainshock and other triggered events are located at larger distances where static stress increases should be negligible, thus suggesting dynamic triggering. The origin times of the triggered events do not correspond to arrival times of the main seismic waves from the mainshocks and the dynamically triggered earthquakes frequently occur in aseismic regions below or adjacent to the seismic zone. We propose that these events are triggered by transient effects in regions near criticality, but where earthquakes have difficulty nucleating without external influences.     

Foreshock sequences and short-term earthquake predictability on East Pacific Rise transform faults

East Pacific Rise transform faults are characterized by high slip rates (more than ten centimetres a year), predominantly aseismic slip and maximum earthquake magnitudes of about 6.5. Using recordings from a hydroacoustic array deployed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, we show here that East Pacific Rise transform faults also have a low number of aftershocks and high foreshock rates compared to continental strike-slip faults. The high ratio of foreshocks to aftershocks implies that such transform-fault seismicity cannot be explained by seismic triggering models in which there is no fundamental distinction between foreshocks, mainshocks and aftershocks. The foreshock sequences on East Pacific Rise transform faults can be used to predict (retrospectively) earthquakes of magnitude 5.4 or greater, in narrow spatial and temporal windows and with a high probability gain. The predictability of such transform earthquakes is consistent with a model in which slow slip transients trigger earthquakes, enrich their low-frequency radiation and accommodate much of the aseismic plate motion.     

Coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics in the Indian Ocean during 1997-98

Climate variability in the Indian Ocean region seems to be, in some aspects, independent of forcing by external phenomena such as the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation. But the extent to which, and how, internal coupled ocean-atmosphere dynamics determine the state of the Indian Ocean system have not been resolved. Here we present a detailed analysis of the strong seasonal anomalies in sea surface temperatures, sea surface heights, precipitation and winds that occurred in the Indian Ocean region in 1997-98, and compare the results with the record of Indian Ocean climate variability over the past 40 years. We conclude that the 1997-98 anomalies--in spite of the coincidence with the strong El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation event--may primarily be an expression of internal dynamics, rather than a direct response to external influences. We propose a mechanism of ocean-atmosphere interaction governing the 1997-98 event that may represent a characteristic internal mode of the Indian Ocean climate system. In the Pacific Ocean, the identification of such a mode has led to successful predictions of El Ni?o; if the proposed Indian Ocean internal mode proves to be robust, there may be a similar potential for predictability of climate in the Indian Ocean region.     

Analysing the 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes with recent instrumentally recorded aftershocks

Although dynamic stress changes associated with the passage of seismic waves are thought to trigger earthquakes at great distances, more than 60 per cent of all aftershocks appear to be triggered by static stress changes within two rupture lengths of a mainshock. The observed distribution of aftershocks may thus be used to infer details of mainshock rupture geometry. Aftershocks following large mid-continental earthquakes, where background stressing rates are low, are known to persist for centuries, and models based on rate-and-state friction laws provide theoretical support for this inference. Most past studies of the New Madrid earthquake sequence have indeed assumed ongoing microseismicity to be a continuing aftershock sequence. Here we use instrumentally recorded aftershock locations and models of elastic stress change to develop a kinematically consistent rupture scenario for three of the four largest earthquakes of the 1811-1812 New Madrid sequence. Our results suggest that these three events occurred on two contiguous faults, producing lobes of increased stress near fault intersections and end points, in areas where present-day microearthquakes have been hitherto interpreted as evidence of primary mainshock rupture. We infer that the remaining New Madrid mainshock may have occurred more than 200 km north of this region in the Wabash Valley of southern Indiana and Illinois--an area that contains abundant modern microseismicity, and where substantial liquefaction was documented by historic accounts. Our results suggest that future large mid-plate earthquake sequences may extend over a much broader region than previously suspected.     

Nonlinear dynamics, granular media and dynamic earthquake triggering

The 1992 magnitude 7.3 Landers earthquake triggered an exceptional number of additional earthquakes within California and as far north as Yellowstone and Montana. Since this observation, other large earthquakes have been shown to induce dynamic triggering at remote distances--for example, after the 1999 magnitude 7.1 Hector Mine and the 2002 magnitude 7.9 Denali earthquakes--and in the near-field as aftershocks. The physical origin of dynamic triggering, however, remains one of the least understood aspects of earthquake nucleation. The dynamic strain amplitudes from a large earthquake are exceedingly small once the waves have propagated more than several fault radii. For example, a strain wave amplitude of 10(-6) and wavelength 1 m corresponds to a displacement amplitude of about 10(-7) m. Here we show that the dynamic, elastic-nonlinear behaviour of fault gouge perturbed by a seismic wave may trigger earthquakes, even with such small strains. We base our hypothesis on recent laboratory dynamic experiments conducted in granular media, a fault gouge surrogate. From these we infer that, if the fault is weak, seismic waves cause the fault core modulus to decrease abruptly and weaken further. If the fault is already near failure, this process could therefore induce fault slip.     

Southern Ocean origin for the resumption of Atlantic thermohaline circulation during deglaciation

During the two most recent deglaciations, the Southern Hemisphere warmed before Greenland. At the same time, the northern Atlantic Ocean was exposed to meltwater discharge, which is generally assumed to reduce the formation of North Atlantic Deep Water. Yet during deglaciation, the Atlantic thermohaline circulation became more vigorous, in the transition from a weak glacial to a strong interglacial mode. Here we use a three-dimensional ocean circulation model to investigate the impact of Southern Ocean warming and the associated sea-ice retreat on the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. We find that a gradual warming in the Southern Ocean during deglaciation induces an abrupt resumption of the interglacial mode of the thermohaline circulation, triggered by increased mass transport into the Atlantic Ocean via the warm (Indian Ocean) and cold (Pacific Ocean) water route. This effect prevails over the influence of meltwater discharge, which would oppose a strengthening of the thermohaline circulation. A Southern Ocean trigger for the transition into an interglacial mode of circulation provides a consistent picture of Southern and Northern hemispheric climate change at times of deglaciation, in agreement with the available proxy records.     

印度洋海啸及其启示

着重阐述了地震海啸与其他地震次生灾害相比的特殊性,提出了“海震”的概念,并指出了印度洋海啸对今后抗震救灾工作的启示。     

地震发生与日月运行之关联

 基于第23、24太阳活动周发生的全球M≥7.8级以上大震数据、汶川余震和智利余震数据,发现：地震的发生与日月位置存在着关联性;地震的发生与太阳风磁场到达地球的优势聚集方向存在着关联性。说明地震的发生与日月运行有关联。所用地震事件有两类：一类为余震——2008-05-12 M8.0汶川地震M≥5.0强余震与2010-02-27 M8.8智利地震M≥5.5强余震;另一类为1997—2010年全球M≥7.8大地震。虽然参与分析的地震事件数不算很多,但从两类各自不同的代表性以及所使用地震震级与地域的跨度,仍可望其结论具有普适性。文中提供了众多地震发生与日月运行关联的证据,其随机发生概率多为10^-4—10^-6,小概率为不发生事件,但竟然发生了,表明它们之间必定有其非随机的统一成因机制控制。这是本文作者对地震发生的宇宙环境——“天外来客”特别给予重视的立论所在。     

Decay of aftershock density with distance indicates triggering by dynamic stress

The majority of earthquakes are aftershocks, yet aftershock physics is not well understood. Many studies suggest that static stress changes trigger aftershocks, but recent work suggests that shaking (dynamic stresses) may also play a role. Here we measure the decay of aftershocks as a function of distance from magnitude 2-6 mainshocks in order to clarify the aftershock triggering process. We find that for short times after the mainshock, when low background seismicity rates allow for good aftershock detection, the decay is well fitted by a single inverse power law over distances of 0.2-50 km. The consistency of the trend indicates that the same triggering mechanism is working over the entire range. As static stress changes at the more distant aftershocks are negligible, this suggests that dynamic stresses may be triggering all of these aftershocks. We infer that the observed aftershock density is consistent with the probability of triggering aftershocks being nearly proportional to seismic wave amplitude. The data are not fitted well by models that combine static stress change with the evolution of frictionally locked faults.