On the development of the GRAPES——A new generation of the national operational NWP system in China

Numerical weather prediction （NWP） has become one of the most important means for weather forecasts in the world. It also mirrors a nation＇s comprehensive strength in meteorology. In 2000, China Meteorological Administration （CMA） established the National Innovative Base for Meteorological Numerical Prediction in the Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences （CAMS）, to work on developing a new generation of the national operational NWP system-Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System （GRAPES）, to enhance meteorological services in China in the new century. In recent years, the GRAPES has witnessed a fast development. The GRAPES has been set up as an integration of the model framework, data assimilation, regional and global NWP system, which can be commonly used for both operation and research. In this paper, a brief review is made for illustrating the GRAPES system, including the advanced designs of the GRAPES, its diverse applications in multi-fields, and efficiencies of the regional and global GRAPES in operational applications based on hindcast results.     

New generation of multi-scale NWP system （GRAPES）： general scientific design

A new generation of numerical prediction system GRAPES （a short form of Global/Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System） was set up in China Meteorological Administration （CMA）. This paper fo- cuses on the scientific design and preliminary results of the numerical prediction model in GRAPES, including basic idea and strategy of the general scientific design, multi-scale dynamic core, physical package configuration, architecture and parallelization of the codes. A series of numerical experiments using the real data with horizontal resolutions from 10 to 280 km and idealized experiments with very high resolution up to 100 m are conducted, giving encouraging results supporting the multi-scale application of GRAPES. The results of operational implementation of GRAPES model in some NWP centers are also presented with stress at evaluations of the capability to predict the main features of precipitation in China. Finally the issues to be dealt with for further development are discussed.     

Verification of GRAPES unified global and regional numerical weather prediction model dynamic core

During the past few years, most of the new developed numerical weather prediction models adopt the strategy of multi-scale technique. Therefore, China Meteorological Administration has devoted to developing a new generation of global and regional multi-scale model since 2003. In order to validate the performance of the GRAPES （Global and Regional Assimilation and PrEdiction System） model both for its scientific design and program coding, a suite of idealized tests has been proposed and conducted, which includes the density flow test, three-dimensional mountain wave and the cross-polar flow test. The density flow experiment indicates that the dynamic core has the ability to simulate the fine scale nonlinear flow structures and its transient features. While the three-dimensional mountain wave test shows that the model can reproduce the horizontal and vertical propagation of internal gravity waves quite well. Cross-polar flow test demonstrates the rationality of both for the semi-Lagrangian departure point calculation and the discretization of the model near the poles. The real case forecasts reveal that the model has the ability to predict the large-scale weather regimes in summer such as the subtropical high, and to capture the major synoptic patterns in the mid and high latitudes.     

Thoughts on studies of China continental geology and tectonics

As an important part of the global continents, China continent has long been situated in the peculiar tectonic position and experienced extremely complicated activities, which resulted in the regional unique characteristics for China continent on the global common geological background. These characteristics contain abundant information regarding scientific key issues of modern geological frontier. Thus, China continent can be a natural laboratory and excellent arena for the modern geosciences. The modern earth sciences have started entering the era featured with earth systematic science and beyond plate tectonics. How to take the regional advantage and exploit the treasure resource to participate the new theoretical and methodological creation is a historic opportunity and great challenge we are facing. This paper generalizes research priorities in four fields on China continental geology and tectonics for discussion. They are: China continental tectonics and dynamics; Mesozoic-Cenozoic crustal deformation and deep-seated processes in China continent and the adjacent regions; deep-seated dynamic background and evolutionary trend of crustal tectonic activities on the time scale of human existence; deep-seated background and processes of conjunction and transformation of different tectonic systems.     

Construction,Technigues and Application of New Generation Doppler Weather Radar in China

New generation Dopplerweather radar(NEXTRAD)has become one of the most important tools for monitioring and forecasting severe weather.It has been widely used in some developed countries.The construction of China^,sNEXTRAD network has started since 1998,and this project is supported by natiional debt.In this paper the autor addresses the development of NEXTRAD techniques,the pre-sent situation of construction and application of NEXTRAD in China,some problems to be carefully considered in construction,and seve-ral new fields of future radar technique developments and applications in weather monitioring.     

Analysis of the global T_m–T_s correlation and establishment of the latitude-related linear model

In this study,the correlation between Tm,a key variable in GNSS water vapor inversion,and surface temperature(Ts)was calculated on a global scale based on the global geodetic observing system(GGOS)atmosphere Tmdata and European centre for medium-range weather forecasts(ECMWF)surface temperature data.The results show that their correlation is mainly affected by latitudes,and the correlation is stronger at high latitudes and weaker at low latitudes.Although the correlation is relatively weak in the tropic areas,the temperature changes so little in a year in these areas that we can still achieve good Tmresults by linear regression model.Based on these facts,‘‘GGOS atmosphere’’Tmdata and ECMWF Tsdata from 2005 to2011 were used to establish the global latitude-related linear regression model.The new model has root mean square error(RMSE)of 3.2,3.3,and 4.4 K,respectively,compared with respect to the‘‘GGOS atmosphere’’data,COSMIC data,and radiosonde data and is more accurate than the Bevis Tm–Tsrelationship.     

Scientific design and preliminary results of three-dimensional variational data assimilation system of GRAPES

The scientific design and preliminary results of the data assimilation component of the Global-Regional Prediction and Assimilation System （GRAPES） recently developed in China Meteorological Administration （CMA） are presented in this paper. This is a three-dimensional variational （3DVar） assimilation system set up on global and regional grid meshes favorable for direct assimilation of the space-based remote sensing data and matching the frame work of the prediction model GRAPES. The state variables are assumed to decompose balanced and unbalanced components. By introducing a simple transformation from the state variables to the control variables with a recursive or spectral filter, the convergence rate of iteration for minimization of the cost function in 3DVar is greatly accelerated. The definition of dynamical balance depends on the characteristic scale of the circulation considered. The ratio of the balanced to the unbalanced parts is controlled by the prescribed statistics of background errors. Idealized trials produce the same results as the analytic solution. The results of real data case studies show the capability of the system to improve analysis compared to the traditional schemes, Finally, further development of the system is discussed.     

The Forecasting and Warning System of Geological Disasters in China

Geological disasters such as landslide and mudslide can be caused by many factors. Collaborations among different governmental agencies and multi-disciplines are necessary to establish a forecasting and warning system of geological disasters ( FWSGD). A FWSGD in China has been in operation since June 1 , 2003 as a joint project between the China Meteorological Administration (CMA) and the Ministry of Land and Resources ( MLR). This system has successfully shown very good social and economic benefits. The temporal-spatial distributions of China geological disasters and their causes have been analyzed in this paper. The FWSGD is described and its possible existing issues are also discussed. Authors suggest a new approach to study these disasters from interactions of the earth systems. Finally, a monitoring, forecasting, warning and preventing system for geological disasters in China is proposed.     

Regional Prediction of Impending Debris Flow Based on Doppler Weather Radar

Debris flow prediction is one of the important means to reduce the loss caused by debris flow. This paper built a regional prediction model of impending debris flow based on regional environmental background （including topography, geology, land use, and etc.）, rainfall and debris flow data. A system of regional prediction of impending debris flow was set up on ArcGIS 9.0 platform according to the model. The system used forecast precipitation data of Doppler weather radar and observational precipitation data as its input data. It could provide a prediction about the possibility of debris flow one to three hours before it happened, and was put into use in Liangshan Meteorological Observatory in Sichuan province in the monsoon of 2006.     

Application of Grey Associative Analysis to the Assessment of Regional Water Security

The assessment of water security is an important content in the security management of water resources due to the fact that the state of water security directly affects both the sustainable development of regional economy and the improvement on the living quality of mankind. Grey associative analysis is introduced and applied to assessment of water security on the basis of grey characteristics of the assessment index system of water security. As a case study shows, grey associative analysis is used for evaluating water security of some provinces in China, and the satisfactory assessment results are obtained. The sequence of provinces in China with regard to water security from good to poor is obtained and, moreover, the water security level of each region is also confirmed. The results obtained accord with the actual state of each region. They are of practical significance and can be used to guide the management of regional water security and a sustainable development of the economy therein. At the same time, the results demonstrate that grey associative analysis provides a new method for assessing water security     

Use of Internet Technology for the Improvement of Execution Management in Geotechnical Engineering Projects

An internet-based information and monitoring platform for the specific requirements of geotechnical engineering projects is presented. The platform is based on a hybrid-model approach consisting of a model-based information management system and a resource management system, the latter also referred to as DCMS. Project key information can be accessed via the main user interface, the "graphical navigator". The graphical navigator provides also a direct access to additional information in the DCMS. Prompt reac-tion in exceptional situations as well as in daily work gets an extensive support. In practical applications it has been proven that this platform seems to be an adequate tool especially for risk assessment and management in geotechnical engineering projects. Components and advantages of the platform as well as ex periences from the applications are presented and discussed in the paper.     

Predictor-based error correction method in short-term climate prediction

In terms of the basic idea of combining dynamical and statistical methods in short-term climate prediction, a new prediction method of predictor-based error correction (PREC) is put forward in order to effectively use statistical experiences in dynamical prediction. Analyses show that the PREC can reasonably utilize the significant correlations between predictors and model prediction errors and correct prediction errors by establishing statistical prediction model. Besides, the PREC is further applied to the cross-validation experiments of dynamical seasonal prediction on the operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model of China Meteorological Administration/ National Climate Center by selecting the sea surface temperature index in Niño3 region as the physical predictor that represents the prevailing ENSO-cycle mode of interannual variability in climate system. It is shown from the prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation that the PREC can improve predictive skills to some extent. Thus the PREC provides a new approach for improving short-term climate prediction.     

Assessment of rice fields by GIS／GPS-supported classification of MODIS data

The new Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite image offers a large choice of opportunities for operational applications. The 1-km Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) image is not suitable for retrieval of field level parameter and Landsat data are not frequent enough for monitoring changes in crop parameters during the critical crop growth periods.A methodology to map areas of paddy fields using MODIS,geographic information system (GIS) and global position system (GPS) is introduced in this paper. Training samples are selected and located with the help of GPS to provide maximal accuracy.A concept of assessing areas of potential cultivation of rice is suggested by means of GIS integration. By integration of MODIS with GIS and GPS technologies the actual areas of rice fields in 2002 have been mapped. The classification accuracy was 95.7% percent compared with the statistical data of the Agricultural Bureau of Zhejiang Province.     

Current status and challenges of typhoon forecasting and warning systems in China

China is one of the countries most severely suffering from tropical cyclones. The exact and timely forecasting and warning is of significant importance in fighting against tropical cyclones and mitigating their impacts on China. The numerical weather prediction （NWP） system for tropical cyclone rainfall and strong wind is going to play a more and more important role. There is also a need for timely and user friendly modem warning services in order to provide the governments and relevant authorities at all levels and general public with typhoon forecasts and information about the associated disasters and response strategy services.     

Predictor-based error correction method in short-term climate prediction

In terms of the basic idea of combining dynamical and statistical methods in short-term climate prediction, a new prediction method of predictor-based error correction （PREC） is put forward in order to effectively use statistical experiences in dynamical prediction. Analyses show that the PREC can reasonably utilize the significant correlations between predictors and model prediction errors and correct prediction errors by establishing statistical prediction model. Besides, the PREC is further applied to the cross-validation experiments of dynamical seasonal prediction on the operational atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model of China Meteorological Administration/National Climate Center by selecting the sea surface temperature index in Nifio3 region as the physical predictor that represents the prevailing ENSO-cycle mode of interannual variability in climate system. It is shown from the prediction results of summer mean circulation and total precipitation that the PREC can improve predictive skills to some extent. Thus the PREC provides a new approach for improving short-term climate prediction.     

Research progress on high intensity hadron accelerator in China

High intensity hadron beam has wide-range important applications.In recent years,several projects with intense-beam hadron accelerator are under design,development or construction in China.We are facing a lot of challenges in beam physics and key technology of the accelerators.Beam loss and beam emittance must be minimized for such a high intensity accelerator.Space charge effect and nonlinear dynamics should be taken into account in beam physics and accelerator design.In this paper we will present the recent research progress in China on beam dynamics,new technology development and beam experiments for intense beam hadron accelerators,including linear accelerator,synchrotron and cyclotron.     

Effects of historical land cover changes on climate

In order to explore the influence of anthropogenic land use on the climate system during the last mil- lennium, a set of experiments is performed with an Earth system model of intermediate complexity—— the McGill Paleoclimate Model (MPM-2). The present paper mainly focuses on biogeophysical effects of historical land cover changes. A dynamic scenario of deforestation is described based on changes in cropland fraction (RF99). The model simulates a decrease in global mean annual temperature in the range of 0.09-0.16℃, especially 0.14-0.22℃ in Northern Hemisphere during the last 300 years. The responses of climate system to GHGs concentration changes are also calculated for comparisons. Now, afforestation is becoming an important choice for the enhancement of terrestrial carbon sequestration and adjustment of regional climate. The results indicate that biogeophysical effects of land cover changes cannot be neglected in the assessments of climate change.     

Image segmentation based on Mumford-Shah functional

In this paper, the authors propose a new model for active contours segmentation in a given image, based on Mumford-Shah functional (Mumford and Shah, 1989). The model is composed of a system of differential and integral equations. By the experimental results we can keep the advantages of Chan and Vese‘s model (Chan and Vese, 2001 ) and avoid the regularization for Dirac function. More importantly, in theory we prove that the system has a unique viscosity solution.     

A Computational Model for the Prediction of Seam Pucker

This paper reports on a computational model established based on discriminant analysis for predicting the occur-rence of seam pucker and advising on the correction of causing variables (e. g. fabric properties) to prevent seam pucker. The model has a self - updating feature, viz. automatically up - dating model parameters to im-prove the reliability of the model as new data becomes available. It has been successfully implemented in a re-cently developed sewability system.