Small area population estimates project: data quality of administrative datasets

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has set up a project to investigate the feasibility of producing postcensal small area population estimates on a nationally consistent basis for England and Wales. Research has taken place to identify datasets that could potentially be used within a method to produce small area population estimates. Following an evaluation of a number of different administrative datasets, the most suitable have been short-listed for further consideration. This article presents the findings of the evaluation, based on 2001 data, and summarises the characteristics of these short-listed data sources. This article does not cover the methods that are being evaluated as part of the feasibility assessment.     

Estimating the changing population of the 'oldest old'

The population of England and Wales is becoming older. This poses an increasing demand for detailed data on the size an trends of the population at the oldes ages. Using the recently released Offic for National Statistics estimates of th population aged 90 and over in England and Wales, this article shows trends in the population of the oldest old and demographic causes of the rapid increase in centenarians during the twentieth century. It also presents further validation of the ON estimates of the oldest old with estimat from other data sources.     

Estimates of true birth order for Scotland, 1945-1999

Over the last three decades fertility in Scotland, as measured by the total fertility rate (TFR), has moved from being higher than in England and Wales, to being lower. The annual number of births in Scotland has declined so that in the mid-1990s low fertility became the main driver of the overall population decline that Scotland has been experiencing since 1974. Analysis of fertility by birth order is instrumental in gaining an understanding of past and future fertility trends. Until the rise in births outside marriage in the 1980s data from registration could be used as a proxy for true birth order. However, because birth order is not collected for births outside marriage true birth order now has to be estimated. This article presents the first official estimates of true birth order for Scotland. The construction of these estimates based on a modified version of the method used for England and Wales is discussed. This article also presents analysis relating births by true birth order estimate to the population of women by parity on a cohort basis, and makes comparisons with England and Wales.     

Rebasing the annual mid-year population estimates for England and Wales

The ONS produces mid-year population estimates annually, which are based on updating from the most recent census. Therefore, whenever results become available from a census, a new base is created for the population estimates. This has implications for historic series, which need to be revised to be consistent with both the past and the most recent census. This article describes the methodology that will be used for this rebasing of the mid-year population estimates following the availability of results from the 2001 Census. Census results also provide a unique opportunity to assess the accuracy of the population estimates that are based on the previous census and this article also describes the approach that will be taken to the assessment of accuracy.     

The changing demographic picture of the UK: national statistician's annual article on the population

The population of the UK is currently growing at its fastest rate since the 1960s, increasing by two and a half per cent between mid-2001 and mid-2006. While life expectancy continues to increase, fertility rates have also been increasing in the last five years and are currently at their highest level since 1980. In addition, international migration has led to the UK population growing by an average of 500 people per day over the last five years. The population is also becoming increasingly diverse and mobile, and these factors make it increasingly challenging to measure population change accurately. This is the first of a series of annual reports on the population of the UK; these reports will provide an overview of the latest statistics on the population and will also focus on one specific topic - for this report the topic is fertility and, in particular, the impact of migration on fertility, but different topics will be covered in future years. The reports will also highlight the key strands of work being taken forward within the National Statistics Centre for Demography in order to improve UK population statistics. More detailed information on the populations of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are available in the annual demographic reports produced by the respective devolved administrations.'     

黑龙江省低山丘陵区水保措施减蚀效应研究

黑龙江省低山丘陵区土壤贫瘠,农业生产活动剧烈,加之降雨多以夏季暴雨为主,造成了严重的土壤侵蚀现象。通过对宾县三岔河小流域7个试验小区径流和产沙观测资料的分析,总结得出不同水保措施下的水土保持效益,为合理安排耕作方式提供参考。图1,表2,参16。     

An international comparative study on the use of the Cohort Component Method for estimating national populations

This comparative study explores the use of the Cohort Component Method (CCM) to produce national level population estimates. This method is used annually to calculate mid-year population estimates for England and Wales by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Initially the article considers recent population change in England and Wales, with particular emphasis on the growing importance and challenges faced by migration estimation. Comparisons are then made between how population estimates are produced in England and Wales and other countries, with a particular focus on differences in the way the CCM is applied. Recent changes in methods used to estimate population are then reviewed along with a discussion of alternative approaches such as those described in academic literature.     

Estimates of the population by ethnic group for areas within England

This article describes, and provides some initial analysis of, the experimental population estimates by ethnic group for areas within England published by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) in January 2006. The article considers growth and the population structure of each of the ethnic groups identified in the 2001 Census; subnational patterns of change; population turnover; and measures of diversity and segregation, and also provides a comparison of the estimates and corresponding sample-based estimates from the Labour Force Survey.     

The use of patient registers to estimate migration

This article presents information discussed at the recent regional seminars on population statistics. It describes a new data source for estimating internal migration between local and health authorities in England and Wales, discusses the way that the data have been collected and processed, and how limitations in the raw data have been addressed. It then goes on to explain the way that the new internal migration estimates have been used in the calculation of population estimates for local and health authorities. This is a change to the method of estimating migration in the calculation of population estimates.     

The development of a 'Postcode Best Fit' methodology for producing population estimates for different geographies

A 'Postcode Best Fit' methodology has been developed by the Office for National Statistics to produce population estimates for a range of different geographies which are entirely consistent with each other, regardless of whether or not the estimates for one geography can be aggregated to produce estimates for another geography. This article describes the Postcode Best Fit methodology, its evaluation, limitations with some of the data sources used with the method, the application of the method for producing population estimates and case studies describing how the method has been used to produce bespoke population estimates to meet specific user requirements.     

Using administrative data sources in the estimation of emigration

It is important that migration is measured accurately, for example to inform population estimates and projections. However, current sources of information present challenges in producing robust estimates of emigration from Great Britain. This article reports on work carried out by the Office for National Statistics to investigate the potential for using administrative data sources to contribute to the measurement of emigration.     

Using the Omnibus Survey to test questions on emigration

It is important that migration is measured accurately, for example to inform population estimates and projections. However, current sources of information make it difficult to produce robust estimates of emigration from Great Britain. Several other countries, including Ireland, make use of household surveys in their estimates of migration. To investigate the feasibility of obtaining information on emigration from those resident in Great Britain, three questions were included in the Omnibus Survey for two months. Respondents were asked whether they had plans to emigrate or whether anyone in their family had recently emigrated or intended to shortly. This article reports on the results of this pilot, providing evidence on response levels, comparison with the International Passenger Survey and feedback from interviewers on the questions asked.     

Reviewing the mid-year population estimates in Northern Ireland

This article describes the thorough review of the mid-year population estimates for Northern Ireland. No major problems have been identified with the current estimates but a number of enhancements have been put in place. The new figures are consistent with a number of administrative data sources. The overall effect has been to revise the estimated Northern Ireland population by about 6,000 people, or between 0.3 and 0.4 per cent, for each year between 1991 and 1997. The revised estimates for Northern Ireland have been incorporated into the population figures for the United Kingdom included in the Table section of this issue of Population Trends.     

Population estimates; backseries methodology for 1992-2000

In each decade, population estimates are rebased using data from the most recent census. However, this would lead to a step change in the population estimates series. To avoid this discontinuity the backseries for 1992 to 2000, was revised to bring it into line with the 2001 Census. This article discusses the methodology used to produce the final revised backseries for 1992 to 2000 published by ONS in October 2004. The final estimates were produced after a long period of research into the best methodology to use. Traditionally, the backseries have been revised using an interim simple period method, followed by a final simple cohort method. The approach taken following the 2001 Census was much more comprehensive. This article outlines this approach, summarises the range of methods available and describes in detail the final method selected.     

Population bases and statistical provision: towards a more flexible future?

In an increasingly complex and mobile society, there is a need for population estimates to be produced on a more flexible basis. Different uses of population data may require information to be output on different population bases, such as where people usually live ('usual residence') or where they are on a particular day ('population present'). This article explores many of the issues associated with defining 'the population'. Following consultation with data users, it outlines recommended population definitions that could facilitate a more flexible approach. Comparisons are made between the output bases produced from the 2001 Census and the more adaptable outputs potentially available in future if the recommended definitions were used.     

The creation of 'consistent areas through time' (CATTs) in Scotland, 1981-2001

Small area analysis of sociodemographic change over time is often impeded by the changing configuration of census zones for each decennial UK census. Approaches for matching zone configurations exist, but these typically require population estimation techniques, which inevitably involve some error. Because of the postcode-based geographical zoning system used in Scottish censuses, it is possible to create a local-area geography which is consistent for recent censuses. Here we present a methodology used to create three sets of consistent areas through time (CATTs) that can be used for analysing comparable small area data output from the 1981, 1991 and 2001 Censuses.     

How have administrative sources been used to adjust population estimates and set plausibility ranges?

This article reviews existing methods employed by various countries in the use of administrative data to make adjustments to, or set plausibility ranges around, population estimates or census data. The work was carried out to explore techniques that could be used by the ONS in application with population estimates. An annex also covers benefits and difficulties that have been experienced when producing a register-based census, or population estimates.     

Fifty years of United Kingdom national population projections: how accurate have they been?

This article considers the accuracy of the official national population projections made for the UK over the last fifty years The findings take account of the revision to population estimates following the 2001 Census and are largely similar to the findings of a previous review carried out after the 1991 Census. The total population has been projected reasonably accurately but this is largely a chance result of compensating errors in the assumptions of fertility, mortality and net migration. The largest differences between projected and actual populations are for the very young and the very old, while projections of the working age population have been comparatively accurate. Fertility and mortality errors have reduced in more recent projections, while migration errors have grown. However, this may simply reflect the volatility or stability of the respective time-series at the time the projections are made. Changes in estimates of the past and current size of the population (highlighted by the revisions made to population estimates following the 2001 Census) are also shown to play a part in explaining projection error.     

CARP问题的小环路启发式求解方法

弧路径规划问题(Arc Routing Problem,ARP)来源于回收垃圾,清洒街道,扫雪以及投递邮件等实际问题.CARP是车辆带有容积限制的ARP问题.本文研究了CARP与CVRP的转换,并提出了一种小环路方法来求解CARP.该方法先将CARP中所有弧分割为不同区域,每个区域会形成一个小环路,从而转换为CVRP问题进行求解.然后将CVRP求解结果释放为CARP的初始解,再用Tabu禁忌搜索方法进行优化.通过一个假设例子和两组标准算例的求解,结果验证了该算法的求解效率和精度,并为实际应用奠定了基础.