Estimates of true birth order for Scotland, 1945-1999

Over the last three decades fertility in Scotland, as measured by the total fertility rate (TFR), has moved from being higher than in England and Wales, to being lower. The annual number of births in Scotland has declined so that in the mid-1990s low fertility became the main driver of the overall population decline that Scotland has been experiencing since 1974. Analysis of fertility by birth order is instrumental in gaining an understanding of past and future fertility trends. Until the rise in births outside marriage in the 1980s data from registration could be used as a proxy for true birth order. However, because birth order is not collected for births outside marriage true birth order now has to be estimated. This article presents the first official estimates of true birth order for Scotland. The construction of these estimates based on a modified version of the method used for England and Wales is discussed. This article also presents analysis relating births by true birth order estimate to the population of women by parity on a cohort basis, and makes comparisons with England and Wales.     

Home births in the UK, 1955 to 2006

This article presents data on trends in the percentage of maternities taking place at home in the UK. As well as the national trend, the article examines how home maternity levels vary according to mother's age, number of previous live births within marriage, country of birth, region, local authority and NHS Trust. Examination of trends and variations in home maternity levels provides a context for debates regarding factors that may influence where women give birth.     

The effect of changes in timing of childbearing on measuring fertility in England and Wales

Changes in the ages at which women give birth to their children mean that fertility measured at a particular point in time (period) may not be a good representation of the ultimate fertility of those women. The common measure of period fertility is the total fertility rate, which in 2001 has fallen to the lowest level since records began in England and Wales. This article presents various methods that have been proposed to adjust period fertility data to take account of changes in the timing of childbearing, applied to England and Wales data. The article concludes that while these adjustment methods provide useful insights, for example, that the total fertility rate has underestimated period quantum fertility since the 1970s, the measures produced are difficult to interpret. This is in part because the concept they are trying to measure, period quantum is itself imprecise. The adjustments do not necessarily provide a reliable indicator of underlying cohort fertility.     

The proportion of adoptees who have received their birth records in England and Wales

Over 70 thousand adults who were adopted in out-of-family adoptions have received their original birth records from ONS since The Children Act, 1975 (Section 26) first enabled them to do so. This article describes how estimates of these adoptees have been made by their year of birth and year of receiving their birth record. It then analyses the trends, with particular reference to the theory that adoption can cause deep-seated psychological problems, setting them within the historical context of adoption in this century.     

Family building intentions in England and Wales: trends,outcomes and interpretations

This article presents and analyses women's childbearing intentions collected in the General Household Survey (GHS). Data from the 21 surveys from 1979 to 2001 show that over that period there has been a fall in women's intended numbers of births. However the latest data (from the 1998, 2000 and 2001 surveys) show that the average number of children intended is still around two, somewhat higher than the average number of children current fertility rates suggest women will have. The questions of whether this difference can be interpreted as possible unmet need for children, whether past intentions have been good predictors of fertility, and how current intentions may be used to inform projections assumptions are discussed. In relation to the last question, fertility intentions by ethnic group are also presented.     

Cohabitation and marriage in Britain since the 1970s

The article presents an overview of trends in cohabitation and marriage in Britain over several decades, using a consistent set of retrospective histories from the General Household Survey 1979-2007. Time-trends are presented, for men and women, of: the experience of different types of partnership by specified ages, the frequency of premarital cohabitation, the average time spent in different types of partnership, the timing of life course transitions, and the outcome of cohabitation and marriage at the fifth and tenth anniversaries.     

Understanding recent trends in marriage

This article explores recent trends in marriage. Following consistent falls in marriage rates in the last quarter of the 20th century the early years of this century have seen some relatively large fluctuations in marriage numbers and rates. This article illustrates some of the recent trends in marriage. One innovation is that it presents marriage data by month, controlled for the effect of peak marriage days in the week. It also discusses a recent legislative change, affecting those subject to immigration control that wish to marry, which may be one of many factors affecting latest marriage trends. Readers should bear in mind that the 2005 data shown in the article are provisional.     

Trends in fertility and contraception in the last quarter of the 20th century

The late 1960s and early 1970s saw major changes in access to birth control. This article reviews trends in fertility and contraception between 1976 when the Family Formation Survey was undertaken and 1998, the latest year for which data are available. There has been an increase in mean age at childbirth over the period. Some of this increase is possibly a result of childbearing in second and subsequent relationships when the women will be older on average. This also has had an impact on their patterns of contraception use. Teenage pregnancy is high on the Government's agenda. Teenage pregnancy continues at constant levels. As the estimated age of first intercourse decreases, there is a continued need for sufficient, accessible and appropriate family planning services.     

Childbearing outside marriage in western Europe

Across most European states in recent decades there have been significant increases in childbearing outside marriage. This article examines the extent to which women have their first child in one of four settings: prior to any partnership; in their first cohabiting partnership; in first marriage; and after a first partnership. Temporal changes in these behaviours and variation according to background characteristics of the women are also examined. For the women who had a child outside any partnership, we examine the extent to which they go on to form partnerships and how long after the birth this happens. For those who had their first child within a cohabiting union, we examine the extent to which they marry and how long after the birth this occurs. Finally, we investigate whether children born within cohabiting unions that do and do not convert into marriages are more or less likely than those born within marriage to see their parents separate.     

Local marriage markets in Great Britain: how diverse?

Estimates are made of the number of potential marriage partners available for unmarried men and women, by age, in Great Britain in 1991 and how this varies across local districts. The preferences of men and women in relation to partner ages are taken into account in the estimates. Average partner supply declines by age for women and increases with age for men. Marriage markets differ between local areas but the differentiation is not as substantial as in many other aspects of local demography and is a good deal less than the variation that occurs through time. Young women and older men have advantageous marriage markets almost everywhere while young men and older women are at a disadvantage in almost all areas.     

女性就业与生育行为动态仿真模型及应用

以女性生命周期中的主要事件及其转移为系统主线,建立了农村新一代女性就业与生育行为动态仿真模型。模型遍历了从女婴出生,经女童、少女到跨入成年进程中交织进行的受教育、就业、婚姻与生育等全部生命事件,用以探讨农村新一代女性生命周期模式对女性人口状态所产生的影响。     

Teenage births to ethnic minority women

This article analyses British age-specific fertility rates by ethnic group, with a special interest in child-bearing by women below the age of 20. Birth statistics are not analysed by ethnic group, and teenage birth rates have been estimated from the dates of birth of mothers and children in the Labour Force Survey. The method appears to be robust. Caribbean, Pakistani and especially Bangladeshi women were much more likely to have been teenage mothers than white women, but Indian women were below the national average. Teenage birth rates have been falling in all three South Asian communities.     

Perpetual postponers? Women's, men's and couple's fertility intentions and subsequent fertility behaviour

In this article data from the British Household Panel Study (BHPS) are used to analyse gender differences in fertility intentions, and the correspondence between fertility intentions and subsequent fertility behaviour. By exploiting couple-level data, we examine whether partners have conflicting preferences for future fertility. Focusing on women who remain childless in their thirties we look at socio-demographic factors related to the intention to remain childless, or to start a family later on in life. By following up women over time, the characteristics of women who go on to have a child later on in life are considered. The importance of having a partner and the fertility intention of that partner in predicting whether a birth will occur are also examined.     

Characteristics of sole registered births and the mothers who register them

This article explores the characteristics of live births where no father was present on the birth certificate (sole registrations) using registration data. It then uses data from the ONS Longitudinal Study to examine some characteristics of mothers who have ever experienced a sole registered live birth. It shows that as a proportion of all births, sole registrations have remained fairly constant over the last two decades, although since 1998 there is some evidence of a fall in the proportion. For mothers born between 1955 and 1962 around nine per cent experienced a sole registration. Those who ever experienced a sole registration were around four years younger when they began their childbearing. These women also had larger families and were more likely to come from a lower social class background.     

Estimating fertility rates using the ONS Longitudinal Study--what difference does the inclusion of non-continually resident members make?

Among datasets available for fertility research in England and Wales, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) Longitudinal Study (LS) is unique in its construction and scale. The large number of individuals who are part of the study means that it is an important dataset for estimating fertility trends in England and Wales by age and parity. This article uses the LS to estimate age-specific fertility rates (ASFRs) for England and Wales between 1991 and 2001. This necessitates great care to ensure that the exposure to risk of birth for female LS members is fully understood. To achieve this, two forms of residential history are defined - consistent cases where the residential information for the LS member is potentially complete for the whole decade and inconsistent cases where there is certainly some form of incompleteness in the residence information. By considering 'all consistent cases', that is both the continuously resident plus those who are not continuously resident but appear to have a complete residential history, we obtain ASFRs which are slightly lower than official statistics figures, but closer to these official figures than ASFRs produced when restricting the sample to LS members who remain continuously resident between 1991 and 2001. The fertility of those consistent cases who are not continuously resident is substantially higher than the rates of continuously resident cases.     

Fertility assumptions for the 2002-based national population projections

One of the key components of national population projections is the assumed level of fertility, which determines the number of future births in the projections. Assumptions are made in terms of the average number of children women will have over their lifetime. For the 2002-based projections this average is assumed to ultimately be 1.75 for England and for Wales, 1.60 for Scotland, and 1.80 for Northern Ireland, leading to a United Kingdom assumption of 1.74. This article explains how these overall assumptions, which are the same as assumed in the 2000-based and interim 2001-based projections, are derived. It also explains why these levels are higher than current 'period' indicators of fertility. Finally, information on more detailed age specific fertility rates, and implications for family size distributions, is given.     

The Millennium Cohort Study

The Millennium Cohort Study is the latest in the line of British birth cohort studies. MCS resembles its predecessors which follow people born in 1946, 1958 and 1970 in the intention to become multi-purpose longitudinal data resource charting many aspects of individual's lives over time. The families of a sample of around 20,000 babies are being interviewed during 2001-02, when eligible babies reach 9 months, to establish the conditions from which they set out in life. The survey contrasts with the previous cohort studies in various ways. Instead of taking all births in one week, the sample of births is spread over a year; the births are from a selection of electoral wards, thereby enabling eventual analysis by neighbourhood characteristics; it also over samples children living in deprived areas, wards with high ethnic minority populations and samples have been boosted in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The latter UK country has not been covered by the other studies. It interviews fathers as well as mothers, and given that its initial funding comes via the ESRC, puts a greater emphasis on socio-economic data than in early parts of the other studies. MCS has been enhanced by additional Government funding. The research team, based at the Institute of Education, aims to deposit a multi-purpose dataset for public use at the ESRC data Archive in the Spring of 2003.     

Changes in the distribution of marital age differences in England and Wales, 1963 to 1998

Assumptions about the 'typical' age gap between spouses underlie much social policy (e.g. the five-year difference in men's and women's state pension ages). In order to test the basis for these assumptions, detailed marriage registration statistics were obtained for 1963 and 1998, for England and Wales. Age differences between spouses were calculated and analysed by year, age at marriage and previous marital status. The median age gap hardly changed between 1963 and 1998 but this concealed considerable increase in the proportion of marriages where the man was younger than the woman or--to a lesser extent--where the man was six or more years older.     

SEMIPARAMETRIC MODEL SELECTION IN LARGE SAMPLES

1 IntroductionThere are obvious reasons for the popularity of linear regression among which are illter-pretation and simplicity in computation. But this does not mean that a llnear relationship isalways sufficient. In some aPpllcations, the mean is linearly related to some variables but therelation to additiona1 variables are not easily parameterized. Partly linear models become thenatural choices in such aPplicationst the linear model is drinimally altered to allow one or a fewof the indepen…