Quantitative evidence for global amphibian population declines

Although there is growing concern that amphibian populations are declining globally, much of the supporting evidence is either anecdotal or derived from short-term studies at small geographical scales. This raises questions not only about the difficulty of detecting temporal trends in populations which are notoriously variable, but also about the validity of inferring global trends from local or regional studies. Here we use data from 936 populations to assess large-scale temporal and spatial variations in amphibian population trends. On a global scale, our results indicate relatively rapid declines from the late 1950s/early 1960s to the late 1960s, followed by a reduced rate of decline to the present. Amphibian population trends during the 1960s were negative in western Europe (including the United Kingdom) and North America, but only the latter populations showed declines from the 1970s to the late 1990s. These results suggest that while large-scale trends show considerable geographical and temporal variability, amphibian populations are in fact declining--and that this decline has been happening for several decades.     

Climatological significance of an ice core net-accumulation record at Mt. Qomolangma (Everest)

An ice core record at Mt. Qomolangma (Everest) since 1954 reveals a sharp decline in net-accumulation in the 1960s, and the annual net-accumulation during the 1970s to the beginning of the 1990s is only half of that at the end of the 1950s. The decreased net-accumulation is coincident with glacier retreat, which is associated with recent temperature increase in the region that intensified the ablation. Under the background of global warming, such glacier variation trends will aggravate.     

Analyzing global trends of different cloud types and their potential impacts on climate by using the ISCCP D2 dataset

The International Satellite Cloud Climatology roject (ISCCP) D2 dataset is used to study the global distribution of low, middle and high cloud amounts and their rends of 1983-2001. Evidences have shown that global arming has accelerated over the past 20 a and the 1990s as the warmest decade in the instrumental records since 861. Trends of various clouds amounts over this period are nalyzed by employing the linear regression method. The esults show that global mean total cloud amounts, in general,have tended to reduce over the past 20 a. But there are lightly increasing by about 2% before 1987 and decreasing y about 4% since then. Cloudiness trends of both low and igh clouds decrease while increase for the middle cloud.And there exist remarkable discrepancies in different regions.The preliminary analyses suggest that it is likely that the loud change occurring over the past 20 a is a positive feedback to global warming.     

Complex causes of amphibian population declines

Amphibian populations have suffered widespread declines and extinctions in recent decades. Although climatic changes, increased exposure to ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation and increased prevalence of disease have all been implicated at particular localities, the importance of global environmental change remains unclear. Here we report that pathogen outbreaks in amphibian populations in the western USA are linked to climate-induced changes in UV-B exposure. Using long-term observational data and a field experiment, we examine patterns among interannual variability in precipitation, UV-B exposure and infection by a pathogenic oomycete, Saprolegnia ferax. Our findings indicate that climate-induced reductions in water depth at oviposition sites have caused high mortality of embryos by increasing their exposure to UV-B radiation and, consequently, their vulnerability to infection. Precipitation, and thus water depth/UV-B exposure, is strongly linked to El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation cycles, underscoring the role of large-scale climatic patterns involving the tropical Pacific. Elevated sea-surface temperatures in this region since the mid-1970s, which have affected the climate over much of the world, could be the precursor for pathogen-mediated amphibian declines in many regions.     

Additive threats from pathogens, climate and land-use change for global amphibian diversity

Amphibian population declines far exceed those of other vertebrate groups, with 30% of all species listed as threatened by the International Union for Conservation of Nature. The causes of these declines are a matter of continued research, but probably include climate change, land-use change and spread of the pathogenic fungal disease chytridiomycosis. Here we assess the spatial distribution and interactions of these primary threats in relation to the global distribution of amphibian species. We show that the greatest proportions of species negatively affected by climate change are projected to be found in Africa, parts of northern South America and the Andes. Regions with the highest projected impact of land-use and climate change coincide, but there is little spatial overlap with regions highly threatened by the fungal disease. Overall, the areas harbouring the richest amphibian faunas are disproportionately more affected by one or multiple threat factors than areas with low richness. Amphibian declines are likely to accelerate in the twenty-first century, because multiple drivers of extinction could jeopardize their populations more than previous, mono-causal, assessments have suggested.     

Demography of the endangered North Atlantic right whale.

Northern right whales (Eubalaena glacialis) were formerly abundant in the northwestern Atlantic, but by 1900 they had been hunted to near extinction. After the end of commercial whaling the population was thought to be recovering slowly; however, evidence indicates that it has been declining since about 1990 (ref. 1). There are now fewer than 300 individuals, and the species may already be functionally extinct owing to demographic stochasticity or the difficulty of females locating mates in the vast Atlantic Ocean (Allee effect). Using a data set containing over 10,000 sightings of photographically identified individuals we estimated trends in right whale demographic parameters since 1980. Here we construct, using these estimates, matrix population models allowing us to analyse the causes of right whale imperilment. Mortality has increased, especially among mother whales, causing declines in population growth rate, life expectancy and the mean lifetime number of reproductive events between the period 1980-1995. Increased mortality of mother whales can explain the declining population size, suggesting that the population is not doomed to extinction as a result of the Allee effect. An analysis of extinction time shows that demographic stochasticity has only a small effect, but preventing the deaths of only two female right whales per year would increase the population growth rate to replacement level.     

Climate change and population declines in a long-distance migratory bird

Phenological responses to climate change differ across trophic levels, which may lead to birds failing to breed at the time of maximal food abundance. Here we investigate the population consequences of such mistiming in the migratory pied flycatcher, Ficedula hypoleuca. In a comparison of nine Dutch populations, we find that populations have declined by about 90% over the past two decades in areas where the food for provisioning nestlings peaks early in the season and the birds are currently mistimed. In areas with a late food peak, early-breeding birds still breed at the right time, and there is, at most, a weak population decline. If food phenology advances further, we also predict population declines in areas with a late food peak, as in these areas adjustment to an advanced food peak is insufficient. Mistiming as a result of climate change is probably a widespread phenomenon, and here we provide evidence that it can lead to population declines.     

近百年来全球气候变暖的倾向和甲型流感病毒神经氨酸酶进化的倾向(英文)

用氨基酸对的可预测性量化3874个甲型流感病毒神经氨酸酶,分析其进化趋势,并与近百年来全球气温变化趋势进行比较。结果显示,神经氨酸酶的进化和全球气温的变化有明显的相似趋势,而且这种趋势在一些神经氨酸酶的亚型和不同种属中依然存在。该分析结果是了解全球变暖影响甲型流感病毒进化的第一步。     

The trophic fingerprint of marine fisheries

Biodiversity indicators provide a vital window on the state of the planet, guiding policy development and management. The most widely adopted marine indicator is mean trophic level (MTL) from catches, intended to detect shifts from high-trophic-level predators to low-trophic-level invertebrates and plankton-feeders. This indicator underpins reported trends in human impacts, declining when predators collapse ("fishing down marine food webs") and when low-trophic-level fisheries expand ("fishing through marine food webs"). The assumption is that catch MTL measures changes in ecosystem MTL and biodiversity. Here we combine model predictions with global assessments of MTL from catches, trawl surveys and fisheries stock assessments and find that catch MTL does not reliably predict changes in marine ecosystems. Instead, catch MTL trends often diverge from ecosystem MTL trends obtained from surveys and assessments. In contrast to previous findings of rapid declines in catch MTL, we observe recent increases in catch, survey and assessment MTL. However, catches from most trophic levels are rising, which can intensify fishery collapses even when MTL trends are stable or increasing. To detect fishing impacts on marine biodiversity, we recommend greater efforts to measure true abundance trends for marine species, especially those most vulnerable to fishing.     

Synchronization of animal population dynamics by large-scale climate

The hypothesis that animal population dynamics may be synchronized by climate is highly relevant in the context of climate change because it suggests that several populations might respond simultaneously to climatic trends if their dynamics are entrained by environmental correlation. The dynamics of many species throughout the Northern Hemisphere are influenced by a single large-scale climate system, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which exerts highly correlated regional effects on local weather. But efforts to attribute synchronous fluctuations of contiguous populations to large-scale climate are confounded by the synchronizing influences of dispersal or trophic interactions. Here we report that the dynamics of caribou and musk oxen on opposite coasts of Greenland show spatial synchrony among populations of both species that correlates with the NAO index. Our analysis shows that the NAO has an influence in the high degree of cross-species synchrony between pairs of caribou and musk oxen populations separated by a minimum of 1,000 km of inland ice. The vast distances, and complete physical and ecological separation of these species, rule out spatial coupling by dispersal or interaction. These results indicate that animal populations of different species may respond synchronously to global climate change over large regions.     

Climate change decreases aquatic ecosystem productivity of Lake Tanganyika,Africa

Although the effects of climate warming on the chemical and physical properties of lakes have been documented, biotic and ecosystem-scale responses to climate change have been only estimated or predicted by manipulations and models. Here we present evidence that climate warming is diminishing productivity in Lake Tanganyika, East Africa. This lake has historically supported a highly productive pelagic fishery that currently provides 25-40% of the animal protein supply for the populations of the surrounding countries. In parallel with regional warming patterns since the beginning of the twentieth century, a rise in surface-water temperature has increased the stability of the water column. A regional decrease in wind velocity has contributed to reduced mixing, decreasing deep-water nutrient upwelling and entrainment into surface waters. Carbon isotope records in sediment cores suggest that primary productivity may have decreased by about 20%, implying a roughly 30% decrease in fish yields. Our study provides evidence that the impact of regional effects of global climate change on aquatic ecosystem functions and services can be larger than that of local anthropogenic activity or overfishing.     

Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years

Theory and modelling predict that hurricane intensity should increase with increasing global mean temperatures, but work on the detection of trends in hurricane activity has focused mostly on their frequency and shows no trend. Here I define an index of the potential destructiveness of hurricanes based on the total dissipation of power, integrated over the lifetime of the cyclone, and show that this index has increased markedly since the mid-1970s. This trend is due to both longer storm lifetimes and greater storm intensities. I find that the record of net hurricane power dissipation is highly correlated with tropical sea surface temperature, reflecting well-documented climate signals, including multi-decadal oscillations in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, and global warming. My results suggest that future warming may lead to an upward trend in tropical cyclone destructive potential, and--taking into account an increasing coastal population--a substantial increase in hurricane-related losses in the twenty-first century.     

Gene flow maintains a large genetic difference in clutch size at a small spatial scale

Understanding the capacity of natural populations to adapt to their local environment is a central topic in evolutionary biology. Phenotypic differences between populations may have a genetic basis, but showing that they reflect different adaptive optima requires the quantification of both gene flow and selection. Good empirical data are rare. Using data on a spatially structured island population of great tits (Parus major), we show here that a persistent difference in mean clutch size between two subpopulations only a few kilometres apart has a major genetic component. We also show that immigrants from outside the island carry genes for large clutches. But gene flow into one subpopulation is low, as a result of a low immigration rate together with strong selection against immigrant genes. This has allowed for adaptation to the island environment and the maintenance of small clutches. In the other area, however, higher gene flow prevents local adaptation and maintains larger clutches. We show that the observed small-scale genetic difference in clutch size is not due to divergent selection on the island, but to different levels of gene flow from outside the island. Our findings illustrate the large effect of immigration on the evolution of local adaptations and on genetic population structure.     

Widespread local house-sparrow extinctions

House-sparrow populations have declined sharply in Western Europe in recent decades, but the reasons for this decline have yet to be identified, despite intense public interest in the matter. Here we use a combination of field experimentation, genetic analysis and demographic data to show that a reduction in winter food supply caused by agricultural intensification is probably the principal explanation for the widespread local extinctions of rural house-sparrow populations in southern England. We show that farmland populations exhibit fine-level genetic structuring and that some populations are unable to sustain themselves (sinks), whereas others act as sources.     

50年来东北地区增温趋势及原因探讨

20世纪50年代以来,我国重工业基地——东北地区气温明显出现增长趋势。为了研究东北地区气温增长原因,首先运用梯森多边形(Thiessen Polygon Program)方法将东北地区划分为相应的29个区域,以每个采样点年均气温值代表相应区域的气温值;然后分析了这29个区域50年来的气温增长规律,并且通过最小二乘法计算出其气温的线性增长速率值;最后根据此29个采样点气温增长速率值,利用MapInfo软件制作了东北各地气温变化斜率专题图。通过观察专题图可以发现,东北地区各地气温增长速度明显存在差异。结合当地实际发展情况分析后认为,区域内人类活动越剧烈、排放的温室气体越多、当地工业化的程度越高,则增温越快,但明显受海洋气候影响的地区增温则相对较慢。     

气候暖化对台湾水文环境的冲击

自十九世纪中期起就开始发展的全球暖化现象,已使北半球平均气温上升的幅度接近摄氏一度.而伴随全球暖化的结果之一就是全球气候及水文循环正在急遽的改变,各地降雨的强度及分布型态因应气温的上升及气候极端变化而有明显的变化.以台湾地区为例,回顾百年来台湾降雨型态的变化趋势,讨论气候暖化对近五十年来台湾水文环境(地表水、地下水)所造成的影响.其中最显著的趋势为:南北降雨的差异性扩大,降雨型态朝极端化发展.这些变化趋势对未来水资源的调配与运用产生不利的影响.     

Contribution of anthropogenic and natural sources to atmospheric methane variability

Methane is an important greenhouse gas, and its atmospheric concentration has nearly tripled since pre-industrial times. The growth rate of atmospheric methane is determined by the balance between surface emissions and photochemical destruction by the hydroxyl radical, the major atmospheric oxidant. Remarkably, this growth rate has decreased markedly since the early 1990s, and the level of methane has remained relatively constant since 1999, leading to a downward revision of its projected influence on global temperatures. Large fluctuations in the growth rate of atmospheric methane are also observed from one year to the next, but their causes remain uncertain. Here we quantify the processes that controlled variations in methane emissions between 1984 and 2003 using an inversion model of atmospheric transport and chemistry. Our results indicate that wetland emissions dominated the inter-annual variability of methane sources, whereas fire emissions played a smaller role, except during the 1997-1998 El Ni?o event. These top-down estimates of changes in wetland and fire emissions are in good agreement with independent estimates based on remote sensing information and biogeochemical models. On longer timescales, our results show that the decrease in atmospheric methane growth during the 1990s was caused by a decline in anthropogenic emissions. Since 1999, however, they indicate that anthropogenic emissions of methane have risen again. The effect of this increase on the growth rate of atmospheric methane has been masked by a coincident decrease in wetland emissions, but atmospheric methane levels may increase in the near future if wetland emissions return to their mean 1990s levels.     

Evolutionary relationships of human populations from an analysis of nuclear DNA polymorphisms

The genetic relationships of human populations have been studied by comparing gene frequency data for protein and blood-group loci of different populations. DNA analysis now promises to be more informative since not only do the DNA coding sequences have more variation than their corresponding proteins but, in addition, noncoding DNA sequences display more extensive polymorphism. We have now studied the frequency of a group of closely linked nuclear DNA polymorphisms (haplotypes) in the beta-globin gene cluster of normal (beta A) chromosomes of individuals from eight diverse populations. We have found that all non-African populations share a limited number of common haplotypes whereas Africans have predominantly a different haplotype not found in other populations. Genetic distance analysis based on these nuclear DNA polymorphisms indicates a major division of human populations into an African and a Eurasian group.     

Ecology: global warming and amphibian losses

Is global warming contributing to amphibian declines and extinctions by promoting outbreaks of the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis? Analysing patterns from the American tropics, Pounds et al. envisage a process in which a single warm year triggers die-offs in a particular area (for instance, 1987 in the case of Monteverde, Costa Rica). However, we show here that populations of two frog species in the Australian tropics experienced increasing developmental instability, which is evidence of stress, at least two years before they showed chytrid-related declines. Because the working model of Pounds et al. is incomplete, their test of the climate-linked epidemic hypothesis could be inconclusive.     

Plankton effect on cod recruitment in the North Sea

The Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua L.) has been overexploited in the North Sea since the late 1960s and great concern has been expressed about the decline in cod biomass and recruitment. Here we show that, in addition to the effects of overfishing, fluctuations in plankton have resulted in long-term changes in cod recruitment in the North Sea (bottom-up control). Survival of larval cod is shown to depend on three key biological parameters of their prey: the mean size of prey, seasonal timing and abundance. We suggest a mechanism, involving the match/mismatch hypothesis, by which variability in temperature affects larval cod survival and conclude that rising temperature since the mid-1980s has modified the plankton ecosystem in a way that reduces the survival of young cod.