Migrants from central and eastern Europe: local geographies

This article seeks to develop our geographical knowledge of labour migration into the UK by adopting a local authority approach, using data from the Worker Registration Scheme (WRS) for the period May 2004-December 2006. WRS enables us to view at local level the distribution of new national groups (based on citizenship not country of birth as in the Census) and to identify some of the major characteristics of the new flows at local level, including nationality, industry, hours worked and hourly pay. The data allow only a partial view of the picture of immigration from the eight accession states and there are dangers in drawing detailed inferences about local situations. However, it appears that there are distinct geographies associated with this group of immigrants as a whole, with different national groups and in their economic characteristics.     

The changing demographic picture of the UK: national statistician's annual article on the population

The population of the UK is currently growing at its fastest rate since the 1960s, increasing by two and a half per cent between mid-2001 and mid-2006. While life expectancy continues to increase, fertility rates have also been increasing in the last five years and are currently at their highest level since 1980. In addition, international migration has led to the UK population growing by an average of 500 people per day over the last five years. The population is also becoming increasingly diverse and mobile, and these factors make it increasingly challenging to measure population change accurately. This is the first of a series of annual reports on the population of the UK; these reports will provide an overview of the latest statistics on the population and will also focus on one specific topic - for this report the topic is fertility and, in particular, the impact of migration on fertility, but different topics will be covered in future years. The reports will also highlight the key strands of work being taken forward within the National Statistics Centre for Demography in order to improve UK population statistics. More detailed information on the populations of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are available in the annual demographic reports produced by the respective devolved administrations.'     

Intergenerational replacement and migration in the countries and regions of the United Kingdom, 1971-2009

This article uses a recently proposed measure, the overall replacement ratio or ORR, to assess the extent to which migration alters intergenerational replacement within the United Kingdom. The UK as a whole can be seen to experience 'replacement migration' as immigration compensates for fertility below the replacement level. However, the article shows that the impact of migration differs radically in the different regions of the country. South East England experiences very substantial immigration from both the rest of the UK and overseas, far more than is needed for intergenerational replacement, whereas most of the rest of the UK sees little or no net immigration and the ORR remains below the replacement level.     

The UK population: how does it compare?

This is the fourth demographic report for the UK, providing an overview of the latest statistics on the population. This year's article compares the UK with other European countries and a range of nations from around the world. Statistical comparisons are made for fertility, mortality, ageing, migration and population density. The UK has an ageing population, but one that is not ageing as rapidly as some other countries such as Germany, Italy and Japan. Although life expectation in the UK is improving in line with most western European countries, relatively high levels of fertility ensure that the proportion of the population that is young remains high. Around one in ten residents of the UK are foreign born, a lower proportion than many developed countries. UK population density has increased steadily and is the fourth highest in the EU.     

National and international graduate migration flows

This article examines the nature of national and international graduate migration flows in the UK. Migration equations are estimated with microdata from a matched dataset of Students and Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education, information collected by the Higher Education Statistical Agency. The probability of migrating is related to a set of observable characteristics using multinomial logit regression. The analysis suggests that migration is a selective process with graduates with certain characteristics having considerably higher probabilities of migrating, both to other regions of the UK and abroad.     

Variant population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries

Interest has been growing steadily in understanding the impact of the inherent uncertainty in the national population projections. As a result, the Government Acturay's Department has recently produced the most extensive set of official variant projections ever published in the United Kingdom. These include 'standard' variants based on alternative high and low assumptions for future fertility, life expectancy and net migration and also a number of 'special case scenarios.' All of these variants have been produced at both UK and individual country level. This article describes the full range of variant projections available from the 2000-based national projections and summaries some of the key results for both the UK and the individual countries.     

Fifty years of United Kingdom national population projections: how accurate have they been?

This article considers the accuracy of the official national population projections made for the UK over the last fifty years The findings take account of the revision to population estimates following the 2001 Census and are largely similar to the findings of a previous review carried out after the 1991 Census. The total population has been projected reasonably accurately but this is largely a chance result of compensating errors in the assumptions of fertility, mortality and net migration. The largest differences between projected and actual populations are for the very young and the very old, while projections of the working age population have been comparatively accurate. Fertility and mortality errors have reduced in more recent projections, while migration errors have grown. However, this may simply reflect the volatility or stability of the respective time-series at the time the projections are made. Changes in estimates of the past and current size of the population (highlighted by the revisions made to population estimates following the 2001 Census) are also shown to play a part in explaining projection error.     

基于Java的分布式测控系统任务调度研究

针对分布式测控系统动态任务调度算法,提出了一种任务迁移的方法。该方法基于Java的对象序列化机制、多线程机制、远程方法调用(remotemethodinvocation,RMI)技术,实现了将重载机上的任务迁移至轻载机上执行。任务迁移的成功使分布式测控系统动态任务调度算法顺利实现,从而有效地提高了系统效率,达到了负载均衡的目标。详细介绍了任务迁移的实现。     

Immigration, emigration and the ageing of the overseas-born population in the United Kingdom

This article uses data from the 1971 and 2001 Censuses, the 1999-2003 Labour Force Survey and the 1977 to 2002 International Passenger Survey to investigate the migration processes contributing to the age structure and ageing of the UK's overseas-born population. Overall almost half of recent decades' immigrants to the UK emigrate again within five years of arrival, but with large variation by overseas country of birth. Between half and two thirds of the immigrants born in the continental European Union, North America and Oceania emigrate again within five years, while 15 per cent of those born in the Indian subcontinent do so. Significant cumulative emigration more than five years after arrival is seen among earlier immigrants from the Indian subcontinent, the Caribbean Commonwealth and Europe. Large country-of-origin variations in the ratio of pension-age population to working-age population primarily reflect the country composition of immigration streams 30 or more years before.     

2011 Census Field design: getting the numbers right

A labour force of over 30,000 temporary field staff has been employed to carry out the Census. This article summarises the role of the field staff in collecting census questionnaires from households and communal establishments for the March 2011 enumeration. Building on the lessons learned from the 2001 Census, and taking account of changes in society and technology since 2001, the article provides a summary of the planned field staff structures and processes intended to deal with returned questionnaires and non-responders.     

相关风险函数VaR的界

以VaR作为风险测度，利用Copula的有关理论给出美元／英镑和加元／英镑两支汇率的风险函数在一定水平下的VaR的最优边界。在比较不同类Copula的相关性时，用Kendall τ作为比较的依据。本文的方法对其他风险测度和由更多金融产品组成的组合投资同样适用。     

中国城乡迁移年龄模式的研究

分析了中国１９９０年人口普查问卷中迁移项目的特点,指出从原始数据估计迁移人口迁移年龄的困难及克服此困难所必须引入的假定,提出了在较弱的假定下估计各种按龄迁移人口及按龄人口迁移率的方法。据此方法可得出１９８５年到１９８９年四年间平均按龄迁移量、平均按龄人口数及平均按龄迁移率。作为应用,对“四普”中城乡人口迁移的年龄模式进行了分析,并与联合国人口迁移的年龄模式进行了比较,发现中国城乡迁移特殊的年龄模式     

基于脉冲响应的区域经济政策实施效果评价

本文以上海市为实证对象,通过构建政策变量对经济效果变量的脉冲响应函数模型,揭示了国家重大区域规划政策对上海市经济发展的影响.通过构建政策变量对经济效果变量的脉冲响应函数模型,揭示了同一政策在不同宏观经济背景下的作用效果,弥补了现有研究忽略宏观背景对政策效果影响的不足.通过分解脉冲响应函数模型的残差,刻画政策变量的残差变化一个单位标准差后,政策变量与效果变量的共同波动对效果变量的影响.实证表明:在经济紧缩期,扩大中央固定资产投资对上海后10年的总体影响显著好于经济繁荣期.因此,择机选择政策变量的投入力度对区域经济发展尤为重要.     

区域经济调控多目标优化模型研究

基于 C-D生产函数 ,以效率和公平为目标 ,以资本和劳动力的空间分配策略为控制变量 ,建立了区域经济调控我目标优化模型 .从模型中导出并严格证明了两个主要结论 :1 )国家经济发展速度取决于增量资本空间分配策略与投资边际收益率的区域差异的一致性 . 2 )效率与公平目标是严格冲突的 ,当且仅当发达地区投资边际收益率高于落后地区地时 ,反之 ,这对目标是一致的.     

Older workers' withdrawal from the labour market 1991 to 2007: impact of socio-demographic characteristics, health and household circumstances

This article presents an analysis of the withdrawal from the labour market of older workers in England and Wales between 1991 and 1995 and in England between 2002/03 and 2006/07. It examines the relationship between withdrawal from the labour market and demographic and socio-economic characteristics of older workers, their labour market status, health status, housing, household circumstances and caring commitments at the start of each period being considered.     

Chirp雷达对高速运动目标有效相参积累的算法研究

首先详细分析了包络走动对积累信噪比的影响因子,然后分别给出了最优相参积累和包络插值移位补偿相参积累两种积累途径,通过分析得出后者对包络走动补偿精度要求不敏感的结论,在低信噪比条件下能够实现较长时间有效相参积累。仿真结果显示,包络插值移位补偿相参积累法适合不同的应用需求,在-8dB和200个积累脉冲的条件下输出信噪比损失小于3dB。     

A Soft System Framework for the Conservation Management of Material Cultural Heritage

Experience gained from cultural heritage management in Norway and the UK has led to the development of a framework describing the key conservation activities required to sustain a diverse range between material cultural heritage assets. A soft system approach allows the complex interaction between various activities and external factors impacting on cultural heritage management to be examined as a single entity, for example, the contributions made by human interaction, environmental impact and the properties of the material heritage itself, on the preservation or loss of a cultural object. By constructing such a framework it is possible to identify potential indicators that can be used to measure the quality of conservation activities. Arguments are presented for grouping these indicators of impact into social, economic and environmental categories and examples are given of how this approach can be universally applied to real situations.     

影响我国汽车产业竞争力的因素分析:一个UECM模型

采用非限制误差修正模型(UECM)分析了劳动力的投入、资本劳动力的比率和开放度对我国汽车产业总产值的影响,利用界限检验和协整模型,估算了这些因素对总产值的长期和短期弹性.结果发现,无论从长期还是短期而言,劳动力对总产值有负的影响,资本劳动力比对总产值有正的影响;开放度仅在长期对总产值有正且显著的影响.最后对如何提高我国汽车产业竞争力提出了相应的对策建议.     

How important are intergenerational cycles of teenage motherhood in England and Wales? A comparison with France

Teenage fertility has fallen substantially in every Western European country except the United Kingdom. This article examines the hypothesis that repetition of teenage motherhood from mother to daughter is a major cause of the UK being the exception. A simple demographic model of fertility across generations is estimated with comparable data from England and Wales and France. The main finding is that mother-daughter repetition can account for only a minor part of the total difference in teenage childbearing between the two countries, especially over the long term. The higher teenage childbearing in England and Wales of those whose mothers began childbearing after their teenage years dominates.     

Social Innovation Action Research for Lifestyle Improvement of Child Labour in Tehran (Social Innovation’s Idea on Child Labour Lifestyle)

Systemic Practice and Action Research - Child labour has become an ever growing social problem in developing countries like Iran. This study presents a strategy for solving this problem regarding...