Childbearing outside marriage in western Europe

Across most European states in recent decades there have been significant increases in childbearing outside marriage. This article examines the extent to which women have their first child in one of four settings: prior to any partnership; in their first cohabiting partnership; in first marriage; and after a first partnership. Temporal changes in these behaviours and variation according to background characteristics of the women are also examined. For the women who had a child outside any partnership, we examine the extent to which they go on to form partnerships and how long after the birth this happens. For those who had their first child within a cohabiting union, we examine the extent to which they marry and how long after the birth this occurs. Finally, we investigate whether children born within cohabiting unions that do and do not convert into marriages are more or less likely than those born within marriage to see their parents separate.     

Age differences at marriage and divorce

This article explores the age difference of marrying and divorcing couples, calculated by subtracting the wife's age from the husband's. Age difference is of interest in the study of families and partnership behaviour. It is also important because of its link with broader socio-demographic changes, such as population ageing, delayed fertility and the provision of care. The main finding is that between 1963 and 2005, the distribution of age differences for all marriages is very similar in each year to the distribution of age differences for the subset of couples who married in that year, but have since divorced. While there is some evidence of small variations in the proportion of marriages that end in divorce by age difference, there does not seem to be evidence of a strong association.     

Marriages in approved premises and register offices in England and Wales: the proportions of couples who marry away from home

This article analyses how one of the two new facilities of the Marriage Act 1994 has been used in practice; the extent to which couples marry with a civil wedding in registration districts in which neither party resides--"away marriages". The Act made these "away marriages" possible for the first time from the beginning of 1995. Using two samples of marriages in England and Wales in 1998, the numbers and characteristics of away marriages are contrasted between those solemnized in approved premises and those in register offices. Comparisons are also made between "home marriages" and "away marriages".     

Individual Actions as Community Informative Resources. A Collective Informative Systems Approach

This paper conceives communities (in this case, partnerships) as being able to become collective informative repositories of individual and collective actions that may better-inform their members. This paper presents one approach for studying if a community has become such an informative repository. The approach used here consists of introducing a formal language (Viable Systems Modelling, VSM) into one of the community nodes (a participant) and tracing if its use is seen in another node (another participant) - indicating the presence of a process of diffusion. This research design has been tested in a crime-reduction partnership in the UK. One of its members was asked to engage in the design and testing of this approach as a co-researcher. As a result, a questionnaire to map communication and control devices inside an organization was jointly developed. In keeping with VSM principles, the questionnaire encouraged participants to reflect on attenuation and amplification processes within their communications channels. To test the quality of the outcomes of this approach, members from another crime-reduction partnership were also invited to answer the survey; this was to confirm that VSM notions were not evident for those outside the development and testing of the questionnaire. The questionnaire indicated also its capability to make visible communication and organizational processes within collectives and its potential to stimulate self-organization, for those individuals who became familiar with VSM. Furthermore, this approach provided the authors with the capability to study information flows inside the two collectives, and contributed to an understanding of these flows as a model for building and maintaining a Community Informative System.     

Creating Public Spaces and Practiced Places for Democracy,Discourse, and the Emergence of Civil Society

A question before us in the process of creating public spaces and practiced places for democracy and civil society concerns what democracy means for civil society and what civil society means for democratization of the national state in a globalizing world? In this article the author discusses the meaning of democracy and civil society, and the relation each shares. Following, the author examines the nature of space through the work of [Lefebvre H (1991) The production of space. (Trans. Donald Nicholson-Smith). Blackwell, Oxford, Cambridge, Mass] drawing on the work of the French theorist to construct a tripartite model of public space. As well, the author examines the notion of creating practiced places for democracy civil society, drawing on the work of [de Certeau M (1984) The practice of everyday life. University of California Press, Berkeley] to understand the interplay of discourse in reconfiguring space as a practiced place. The author also examines social space and power-geometry as it relates to creating public spaces and practiced places for democracy and civil society. In the final section, the author provides reflections on the work that lies ahead for democratization of the nation-state and the emergence of democratic civil society.     

How important are intergenerational cycles of teenage motherhood in England and Wales? A comparison with France

Teenage fertility has fallen substantially in every Western European country except the United Kingdom. This article examines the hypothesis that repetition of teenage motherhood from mother to daughter is a major cause of the UK being the exception. A simple demographic model of fertility across generations is estimated with comparable data from England and Wales and France. The main finding is that mother-daughter repetition can account for only a minor part of the total difference in teenage childbearing between the two countries, especially over the long term. The higher teenage childbearing in England and Wales of those whose mothers began childbearing after their teenage years dominates.     

National and international graduate migration flows

This article examines the nature of national and international graduate migration flows in the UK. Migration equations are estimated with microdata from a matched dataset of Students and Destinations of Leavers from Higher Education, information collected by the Higher Education Statistical Agency. The probability of migrating is related to a set of observable characteristics using multinomial logit regression. The analysis suggests that migration is a selective process with graduates with certain characteristics having considerably higher probabilities of migrating, both to other regions of the UK and abroad.     

Change in living arrangements following death of a partner in England and Wales, 1971 to 2001

Understanding trends and changes in the circumstances of couples separated by death is important for policy initiatives to reduce vulnerabilities associated with end of life care and for those who live on. This article uses widow(er)hood statistics and census data from the Office for National Statistics Longitudinal Study. It examines changes in couples' living arrangements and households at four successive censuses from 1971 to 2001 and shows how these differ by age and gender on the death of a spouse or partner. Findings draw attention to the effects of ageing and mortality improvements as well as wider social and economic trends in family and household formation, residential independence in older age, and policy developments on long-term care provision for older people.     

Demographic data needs for an ageing population

A consequence of population ageing is an increased need for demographic information on the older population. This presents new challenges for data collection. This article analyses several key aspects of data collection on older people, including survey design and questions. It also critically examines the current range of UK and international sources for data on older people. Specifically, it addresses the under-representation of the following groups in some UK statistical sources: ) older people in institutions, 2) the oldest old and 3) older people from ethnic minorities.     

Home births in the UK, 1955 to 2006

This article presents data on trends in the percentage of maternities taking place at home in the UK. As well as the national trend, the article examines how home maternity levels vary according to mother's age, number of previous live births within marriage, country of birth, region, local authority and NHS Trust. Examination of trends and variations in home maternity levels provides a context for debates regarding factors that may influence where women give birth.     

Using data from overseas to improve estimates of emigration

Migration figures are notoriously problematic to compile, and this is primarily due to complexities in establishing the size and composition of those leaving the UK to live overseas. This article summarises an Office for National Statistics (ONS) investigation into the potential use of data held by countries receiving UK citizens in order to improve the accuracy of emigration figures.     

基于时变Copula的金融开放与风险传染

利用时变Copula研究开放进程下中国大陆股市与国际主要股市间的风险传染问题.用AR(1)-GJR(1,1)-t模型描述各国股指收益率的边际分布, 以时变SJCCopula描述 股指收益率间的动态相依性,分析中国大陆股市与美国股市、英国股市、日本股市以及香港股市2000年1月至2010年11月期间的风险联动. 实证结果表明:在开放进程中中国大陆股市与美国、英国以及日本股市一直保持微弱的下尾相依关系,而与香港股市间 的下尾相依性则随开放程度增加整体上呈显著上升趋势;而与各国际股市的上尾相依性则一直保持较低的水平.     

Toward Critical Intervention in Small and Medium—Sized Enterprises: A Case Study

The mainstream systems literature has so far paid little systematic attention to the small business arena, despite this being potentially a very significant sector for the systems community, given its importance in the UK economy. Small, growing enterprises experience particular managerial problems. This paper provides an example of the practical benefits of a systems approach in a small company experiencing growth. It examines the process of an intervention which took place over a 2-year period in a small manufacturing company as part of the UK government's Teaching Company Scheme. An attempt to extend critical systems thinking into the small company environment is discussed, identifying the challenges and opportunities presented by the setting to researchers. The paper draws on Habermas' theory of communicative action to explore the extent to which the intervention was inclusive and critically reflective. Strategies adopted to support inclusive practice are explored and general lessons are drawn out.     

基于压力测试的我国某商业银行房贷违约率评估

运用带外生变量的自回归模型和向量误差修正模型对房价下跌背景下商业银行的不良贷款率问题进行了研究. 以房地产不良贷款率度量信用风险，以居民消费价格指数、贷款利率、商品房平均销售价格、汇率、仿泰德利差和 广义货币供应量作为压力指标变量，建立了合适的房贷压力测试模型. 在贷款利率上升、商品房销售价格下跌的 压力情境下，分别预测了房地产不良贷款率的变化路径. 实证结果表明，在压力情景下，不良贷款率先急剧上升，然后逐渐降低并趋于稳定，在影响因素中，房价对房地产不良贷款率的影响程度最强，持续时间最长.     

Cohabitation and marriage in Britain since the 1970s

The article presents an overview of trends in cohabitation and marriage in Britain over several decades, using a consistent set of retrospective histories from the General Household Survey 1979-2007. Time-trends are presented, for men and women, of: the experience of different types of partnership by specified ages, the frequency of premarital cohabitation, the average time spent in different types of partnership, the timing of life course transitions, and the outcome of cohabitation and marriage at the fifth and tenth anniversaries.     

Application and transformation of action research in educational research and practice

This paper examines research and theory in the area Kurt Lewin called action research. Action research is collaborative, driven by a partnership between theorist/researchers and practitioners. It focuses on both theoretical and practical implications of issues. When viewed in the context of other work by Lewin, action research is seen as focusing on the social context of behaviors and on the dynamics of situations in which behaviors occur. Action research provides a versatile, potentially powerful approach for use in applied research on groups and group settings. Principles of action research, a tracing of the development of action research, and variations of action research approaches that have emerged in education are presented. Finally, two ongoing studies that exemplify action research are described.     

Population of households in England to 2021

This article outlines the methodology and results of the Department of the Environment, Transport and the Regions (DETR) 1996-based household projections for England, and its regions. It examines differences between this round of projections and the previous 1992-based round. The 1996-based projections indicate that between 1996 and 2021 a growth of 3.8 million households can be expected in England, if recent trends continue. Both the national and subnational methodology and results are covered.     

基于超效率的黄淮海粮食生产效率分析

利用超效率DEA模型和多元线性回归模型分析黄淮海地区1999—2005年粮食生产效率变化及影响因素。通过分析研究结果表明：2000—2003年黄淮海地区粮食生产的相对效率无效,至2003年粮食产量降到近年来的最低点,2004年和2005年粮食生产相对效率提高到有效范围,但是至2005年底黄淮海粮食生产的超效率值仍未达到1999年的粮食生产效率的状态。在影响黄淮海地区粮食生产效率的影响因素分析中,灌溉保证率和人均粮食产量的增加有利于黄淮海地区粮食生产效率的提高;单位农作物播种面积第一产业增加值、乡村人口占总人口比例、粮食占农作物播种面积比例的提高、单位农作物播种面积农业劳动数量的减少有利于其粮食生产效率的提高。图1,表3,参21。     

The changing demography of mid-life, from the 1980s to the 2000s

This article examines changes between 1984 and 2007 in the demographic and socio-economic circumstances of British men and women in mid-life. Changing living arrangements in mid-life reflect historical changes in the occurrence and timing of life events such as marriage and parenthood, as well as increased longevity. In order to place mid-life in this wider demographic context, the article first reviews changes over time in kin availability across the adult life course using the British Household Panel Survey (2001) and Understanding Society (2009). The article goes on to use data from the General Household Survey (1984-2007) to document shifts over time in living arrangements for those aged 20- 79. In the final part of the article we focus specifically on those aged between 45 and 64 and examine how their characteristics in terms of marital status, educational attainment, activity status and housing tenure have changed over the past quarter century.     

Systems Thinking and Higher Education: The Vanguard Method

Reforms to the higher education sector in the UK are only increasing competitive pressures between institutions. Universities are therefore looking to gain competitive advantage over their rivals both in terms of student experience and through administrative efficiency. This paper will present an alternative view of how to transform the way that the higher education system delivers service to students in an environment where ‘student choice’ will be viewed as of paramount importance. The paper will argue that the prevailing ‘command and control’ (Seddon 2003) management logic, which can be found at work throughout both the public and private sectors, is the primary cause of inferior, expensive service. As an alternative, this paper will explore the benefits of working in a systems thinking way, whilst comparing and contrasting this with the flawed thinking which currently prevails. The Vanguard Method (Seddon 2008) is one particular form of systems thinking which has been developed for use in service organisations (Jackson et al. 2008) and which has been applied to many public sector organisations (ODPM 2005; Middleton 2010; Zokaei et al. 2010). Using a case study methodology (Yin 2009), this paper will address what has been learnt by applying the Vanguard Method in an HEI environment for the first time.