Tackling heart failure in the twenty-first century

Heart failure, or congestive heart failure, is a condition in which the heart cannot supply the body's tissues with enough blood. The result is a cascade of changes that lead to severe fatigue, breathlessness and, ultimately, death. In the past quarter century, much progress has been made in understanding the molecular and cellular processes that contribute to heart failure, leading to the development of effective therapies. Despite this, chronic heart failure remains a major cause of illness and death. And because the condition becomes more common with increasing age, the number of affected individuals is rising with the rapidly ageing global population. New treatments that target disease mechanisms at the cellular and whole-organ level are needed to halt and reverse the devastating consequences of this disease.     

Biodiversity conservation: uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk

Thomas et al. model species-distribution responses to a range of climate-warming scenarios and use a novel application of the species-area relationship to estimate that 15-37% of modelled species in various regions of the world will be committed to extinction by 2050. Although we acknowledge the efforts that they make to measure the uncertainties associated with different climate scenarios, species' dispersal abilities and z values (predictions ranged from 5.6% to 78.6% extinctions), we find that two additional sources of uncertainty may substantially increase the variability in predictions.     

Improved estimates of upper-ocean warming and multi-decadal sea-level rise

Changes in the climate system's energy budget are predominantly revealed in ocean temperatures and the associated thermal expansion contribution to sea-level rise. Climate models, however, do not reproduce the large decadal variability in globally averaged ocean heat content inferred from the sparse observational database, even when volcanic and other variable climate forcings are included. The sum of the observed contributions has also not adequately explained the overall multi-decadal rise. Here we report improved estimates of near-global ocean heat content and thermal expansion for the upper 300 m and 700 m of the ocean for 1950-2003, using statistical techniques that allow for sparse data coverage and applying recent corrections to reduce systematic biases in the most common ocean temperature observations. Our ocean warming and thermal expansion trends for 1961-2003 are about 50 per cent larger than earlier estimates but about 40 per cent smaller for 1993-2003, which is consistent with the recognition that previously estimated rates for the 1990s had a positive bias as a result of instrumental errors. On average, the decadal variability of the climate models with volcanic forcing now agrees approximately with the observations, but the modelled multi-decadal trends are smaller than observed. We add our observational estimate of upper-ocean thermal expansion to other contributions to sea-level rise and find that the sum of contributions from 1961 to 2003 is about 1.5 +/- 0.4 mm yr(-1), in good agreement with our updated estimate of near-global mean sea-level rise (using techniques established in earlier studies) of 1.6 +/- 0.2 mm yr(-1).     

Multimodel projections and uncertainties of net ecosystem production in China over the twenty-first century

Ecosystems in China have been absorbing anthropogenic CO2 over the last three decades. Here, we assess future carbon uptake in China using models from phase 5 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project under four socio-economic scenarios. The average of China＇s carbon sink from 2006 to 2100 represented by multimodel mean net ecosystem production （NEP） is projected to increase （relative to averaged NEP from 1976 to 2005） in the range of 0.137 and 0.891 PgC a^-1 across different scenarios. Increases in NEP are driven by increases in net primary production exceeding increases in heterotrophic respiration, and future carbon sink is mainly attributed to areas located in eastern China. However, there exists a considerable model spread in the magnitude of carbon sink and model spread tends to be larger when future climate change becomes more intense. The model spread may result from intermodel discrepancy in the magnitude of CO2 fertilization effect on photosynthesis, soil carbon turnover time, presence of carbon-nitrogen cycle and interpretation of land-use changes. For better quantifying future carbon cycle, a research priority toward improving model representation of these processes is recommended.     

Remobilization of southern African desert dune systems by twenty-first century global warming

Although desert dunes cover 5 per cent of the global land surface and 30 per cent of Africa, the potential impacts of twenty-first century global warming on desert dune systems are not well understood. The inactive Sahel and southern African dune systems, which developed in multiple arid phases since the last interglacial period, are used today by pastoral and agricultural systems that could be disrupted if climate change alters twenty-first century dune dynamics. Empirical data and model simulations have established that the interplay between dune surface erodibility (determined by vegetation cover and moisture availability) and atmospheric erosivity (determined by wind energy) is critical for dunefield dynamics. This relationship between erodibility and erosivity is susceptible to climate-change impacts. Here we use simulations with three global climate models and a range of emission scenarios to assess the potential future activity of three Kalahari dunefields. We determine monthly values of dune activity by modifying and improving an established dune mobility index so that it can account for global climate model data outputs. We find that, regardless of the emission scenario used, significantly enhanced dune activity is simulated in the southern dunefield by 2039, and in the eastern and northern dunefields by 2069. By 2099 all dunefields are highly dynamic, from northern South Africa to Angola and Zambia. Our results suggest that dunefields are likely to be reactivated (the sand will become significantly exposed and move) as a consequence of twenty-first century climate warming.     

Anthropogenic ocean acidification over the twenty-first century and its impact on calcifying organisms

Today's surface ocean is saturated with respect to calcium carbonate, but increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are reducing ocean pH and carbonate ion concentrations, and thus the level of calcium carbonate saturation. Experimental evidence suggests that if these trends continue, key marine organisms--such as corals and some plankton--will have difficulty maintaining their external calcium carbonate skeletons. Here we use 13 models of the ocean-carbon cycle to assess calcium carbonate saturation under the IS92a 'business-as-usual' scenario for future emissions of anthropogenic carbon dioxide. In our projections, Southern Ocean surface waters will begin to become undersaturated with respect to aragonite, a metastable form of calcium carbonate, by the year 2050. By 2100, this undersaturation could extend throughout the entire Southern Ocean and into the subarctic Pacific Ocean. When live pteropods were exposed to our predicted level of undersaturation during a two-day shipboard experiment, their aragonite shells showed notable dissolution. Our findings indicate that conditions detrimental to high-latitude ecosystems could develop within decades, not centuries as suggested previously.     

非全周开口滑阀的节流温升与形变

联合采用FLUENT和ANSYS分析软件对具有典型节流槽的非全周开口滑阀的三维流场、液-固温度场和固体热变形进行数值计算.结果表明:非全周开口滑阀内部流体和固体内的温度分布不均匀,阀口流束在接近固体壁面的区域温度较高,流束中心部位温度较低,阀体和阀芯在阀口附近及流束冲击壁面有局部高温,由此导致的阀芯和阀体不均匀变形量可...     

铁道牵引变压器动态温升的仿真计算

针对铁道牵引变压器在各种负荷条件下的温升情况,进行了深入的仿真计算研究,揭示了影响牵引变压器温升的因素,并对如何充分利用牵引变压器容量提出了建议．     

低温升抗裂高性能混凝土的研究与应用

近年来,送变电基础工程发展迅速,大体积砼使用量也日益增加.为解决大体积砼易开裂的问题,本研究依托送电变基础工程,以密实骨架堆积法为基础设计了基准配合比,并进一步对胶凝材料体系及减水剂做出优化.试验表明,在综合考虑砼的强度及较低水化温升情况下,胶凝材料体系中水泥、粉煤灰、矿粉的掺量分别宜为320 kg/m³、39.5 kg/m³、35.6 kg/m³.选择TJE-200减水剂,掺量在2%时最佳.制备出的产品在送变电工程中取得了明显的经济效益.     

全流量自冷却柱塞泵的泵内温升特性分析

为研究新型全流量自冷却柱塞泵的自冷却特点并分析其自冷却性能,基于双端面配流原理提出了全流量自冷却柱塞泵,简述其结构及工作原理,对全流量自冷却柱塞泵和传统CY泵的温升特点进行对比分析,从宏观角度分析温升原因和能量转换关系,得到两种泵在相同工况下的温升差距,利用AMESim软件搭建柱塞泵的热学模型,仿真得到两种泵的温升曲线...     

采煤机运动参数对工作面温升的影响

采煤工作面的温度关系到工人的健康、设备的使用性能和煤炭生产的安全。为了研究采煤机运动参数对工作面温升的影响,建立了采煤机设计参数与工作面温升关系的数学模型,分析了采煤机的牵引速度、滚筒转速与工作面温升之间的关系及其影响。模拟结果表明,采煤机的运动参数对工作面的温升有直接的影响,工作面的温度随采煤机牵引速度的提高迅速增加,滚筒转速对工作面的温升影响较大;适当降低采煤机的牵引速度和滚筒转速能降低采煤工作面的温升。该结果为正确选择采煤机的运动参数、减少采煤机工作发热、降低采煤工作面温升、进一步改善采煤工作面的环境提供了依据。     

电阻温度系数实验的不确定度分析

通过对电阻温度系数实验直线拟合结果的不确定度估算,得出增大测量区间和增加测量数据的数量是提高直线拟合质量的关键。     

A large discontinuity in the mid-twentieth century in observed global-mean surface temperature

Data sets used to monitor the Earth's climate indicate that the surface of the Earth warmed from approximately 1910 to 1940, cooled slightly from approximately 1940 to 1970, and then warmed markedly from approximately 1970 onward. The weak cooling apparent in the middle part of the century has been interpreted in the context of a variety of physical factors, such as atmosphere-ocean interactions and anthropogenic emissions of sulphate aerosols. Here we call attention to a previously overlooked discontinuity in the record at 1945, which is a prominent feature of the cooling trend in the mid-twentieth century. The discontinuity is evident in published versions of the global-mean temperature time series, but stands out more clearly after the data are filtered for the effects of internal climate variability. We argue that the abrupt temperature drop of approximately 0.3 degrees C in 1945 is the apparent result of uncorrected instrumental biases in the sea surface temperature record. Corrections for the discontinuity are expected to alter the character of mid-twentieth century temperature variability but not estimates of the century-long trend in global-mean temperatures.     

升降温条件对约束钢梁抗火性能的影响

采用有限元方法对约束钢梁的火灾性能进行模拟,并与试验结果进行比较,在验证仿真模型正确的基础上,研究不同升降温条件下钢梁的火灾响应,分析各参数对钢梁抗火性能的影响。结果表明:升温最高温度Tmax和形状系数Sc越大,升温速率越大,梁的耐火时间越短,变形越大;到达最高温度所用时间Tmax越大,升温越慢,且受火时间越长,变形越大,但相应的耐火时间也增长。短热模型较长冷模型耐火时间长,变形小,对抗火有利。降温段约束梁的挠度均有恢复,但升温时变形越大,降温后的残余变形也越大.     

Numerical modeling and simulation of temperature distribution uncertainty subject to ferromagnetic thermoseeds hyperthermia

In the process of ferromagnetic thermoseeds mediated magnetic induction hyperthermia, the tempera- ture distribution in the tumor region is a key factor to determine the therapy effect. During the preoperative treatment planning, discrepancies of the treatment parameters may lead to the temperature distribution uncertainty within the target area. Inaccurate prediction of temperature distribution may induce the treatment failure; therefore, it would be significant to investigate the uncertainty of tissue temperature prediction caused by the disturbance of calculation parameters. In this paper, 3D temperature field and necrosis zone of tissues in ferromagnetic thermoseeds hyperthermia are simulated by the finite volume algorithm, and effects of parameter uncertainties on the temperature distribution are revealed. Results show that selecting appropriate magnetic field parameters for treatment is a priority to guarantee therapeutic effect. Thermoseed properties and blood perfusion rate are the obvious disturbing terms for temperature distribution, while the metabolic heat of bio-tissues can often be ignored within limits. Our investigation is of importance for guiding reasonable and optimal preoperative treatment planning.     

机床主轴三联角接触球轴承温升的研究

对已提出的计算轴承工作温度的经验公式进行了检验，结果表明经验公式有很大的局限性，不能精确预报轴承的温升。对影响机床主轴三联角接触球轴承温升的主要因素（轴承预紧力和转速）进行了实验研究，以等温曲线的形式给出了轴承预紧力、转速和温升之间的关系，为精确预报轴承温升和现代机床设计提供了依据。     

Correlation of rate of gas temperature rise with mass loss rate in a ceiling vented compartment

n-heptane pool fire and industrial alcohol pool fire in a ceiling vented compartment were studied experimentally. The parameters including mass loss rate and rate of gas temperature rise were investigated. The results suggest that the rate of gas temperature rise, whose varia- tions were highly coincident with those of the mass loss rate, minimized at the moment of extinction. The correlation of the rate of average nondimensional temperature rise with mass loss rate was established. It was found that the rate of average nondimensional temperature rise may be correlated with mass loss rate via the gas heat absorption coefficient which was found to be a quadratic function of the nondimensional heat release rate for the ceiling vented compartment under study. The present study may be of practical use for estimation of the time-dependent changes in mass loss rate from the gas temperature curves.     

水胶比对粉煤灰混凝土绝热温升影响研究

粉煤灰置换部分水泥能降低新拌混凝土中的绝热温升,而水胶比亦显著影响着绝热温升值,但目前的经验公式均无考虑水胶比的影响。为探讨并量化水胶比影响,设计混凝土绝热温升测量装置,通过热补偿法实验测量了21组配比的粉煤灰混凝土的绝热温升。结果揭示了混凝土绝热温升、单位胶凝材料平均绝热温升分别在0.3、0.4左右达到峰值。在高水胶比下,掺入粉煤灰降低绝热温升的效果较显著。通过调低水胶比补偿掺入粉煤灰带来的强度损失,能在同样强度下实现绝热温升的降低。最后通过实验结果回归分析,推导出精度满足工程应用需要的粉煤灰混凝土绝热温升经验公式。     

非均匀升温下Timoshenko夹层梁热过屈曲精确数学模型及其数值解

在精确考虑轴线伸长和一阶横向剪切变形的基础上建立Timoshenko夹层梁在热载荷作用下的几何非线性控制方程.采用打靶法数值求解所得强非线性边值问题,获得两端不可移简支夹层梁在横向非均匀升温作用下的静态热过屈曲和热弯曲变形数值解.绘出梁的变形随温度载荷变化的特征关系曲线,分析和讨论材料和几何参数对梁变形的影响.结果表明:梁在均匀加热下不产生拉-弯耦合变形及弯曲变形.在均匀升温条件下,梁的中点无量纲挠度与升温的关系曲线为热过屈曲平衡路径;当升温为横向非均匀的情况下,中心挠度与平均升温之间的关系曲线表现出热弯曲变形的特点.横向剪切变形随梁的长细比增大而显著减小,随变形程度的增大而增大.