Biodiversity conservation: uncertainty in predictions of extinction risk

Thomas et al. model species-distribution responses to a range of climate-warming scenarios and use a novel application of the species-area relationship to estimate that 15-37% of modelled species in various regions of the world will be committed to extinction by 2050. Although we acknowledge the efforts that they make to measure the uncertainties associated with different climate scenarios, species' dispersal abilities and z values (predictions ranged from 5.6% to 78.6% extinctions), we find that two additional sources of uncertainty may substantially increase the variability in predictions.     

Spatial patterns in species distributions reveal biodiversity change

Interpretation of global biodiversity change is hampered by a lack of information on the historical status of most species in most parts of the world. Here we show that declines and increases can be deduced from current species distributions alone, using spatial patterns of occupancy combined with distribution size. Declining species show sparse, fragmented distributions for their distribution size, reflecting the extinction process; expanding species show denser, more aggregated distributions, reflecting colonization. Past distribution size changes for British butterflies were deduced successfully from current distributions, and former distributions had some power to predict future change. What is more, the relationship between distribution pattern and change in British butterflies independently predicted distribution change for butterfly species in Flanders, Belgium, and distribution change in British rare plant species is similarly related to spatial distribution pattern. This link between current distribution patterns and processes of distribution change could be used to assess relative levels of threat facing different species, even for regions and taxa lacking detailed historical and ecological information.     

Species-area relationships always overestimate extinction rates from habitat loss

Extinction from habitat loss is the signature conservation problem of the twenty-first century. Despite its importance, estimating extinction rates is still highly uncertain because no proven direct methods or reliable data exist for verifying extinctions. The most widely used indirect method is to estimate extinction rates by reversing the species-area accumulation curve, extrapolating backwards to smaller areas to calculate expected species loss. Estimates of extinction rates based on this method are almost always much higher than those actually observed. This discrepancy gave rise to the concept of an 'extinction debt', referring to species 'committed to extinction' owing to habitat loss and reduced population size but not yet extinct during a non-equilibrium period. Here we show that the extinction debt as currently defined is largely a sampling artefact due to an unrecognized difference between the underlying sampling problems when constructing a species-area relationship (SAR) and when extrapolating species extinction from habitat loss. The key mathematical result is that the area required to remove the last individual of a species (extinction) is larger, almost always much larger, than the sample area needed to encounter the first individual of a species, irrespective of species distribution and spatial scale. We illustrate these results with data from a global network of large, mapped forest plots and ranges of passerine bird species in the continental USA; and we show that overestimation can be greater than 160%. Although we conclude that extinctions caused by habitat loss require greater loss of habitat than previously thought, our results must not lead to complacency about extinction due to habitat loss, which is a real and growing threat.     

Extreme reversed sexual size dimorphism in the extinct New Zealand moa Dinornis

The ratite moa (Aves; Dinornithiformes) were massive graviportal browsers weighing up to 250 kg (ref. 1) that dominated the New Zealand biota until their extinction approximately 500 yr ago. Despite an extensive Quaternary fossil record, moa taxonomy remains problematic and currently 11 species are recognized. Three Dinornis species were found throughout New Zealand and differed markedly in size (1-2 m height at back) and mass (from approximately 34 to 242 kg). Surprisingly, ancient mitochondrial DNA sequences show that the three species were genetically indistinguishable within each island, but formed separate North and South Island clades. Here we show, using the first sex-linked nuclear sequences from an extinct species, that on each island the three morphological forms actually represent just one species, whose size varied markedly according to sex and habitat. The largest females in this example of extreme reversed sexual size dimorphism were about 280% the weight and 150% the height of the largest males, which is unprecedented among birds and terrestrial mammals. The combination of molecular and palaeontological data highlights the difficulties of analysing extinct groups, even those with detailed fossil records.     

Climate change threats to protected plants of China: an evaluation based on species distribution modeling

Climate change poses major new challenges to biodiversity conservation. Distribution ranges of species have been proven to be affected by climate anomalies. Detecting the extent of protected species response to climate change can help formulate flexible conservation strategies to overcome the changing climate. Using species distribution modeling and high resolution climate data, we simulated current distribution patterns of 233 protected plants in China. Those patterns were then projected into future suitable habitats for each species under nine climate change scenarios, with no migration or full migration hypotheses. Under the most extreme climate change scenario （CGCM-B2a）, we evaluated species extinction risks. Sixteen percent of protected plants are expected to lose more than 30 % of their current ranges. By calculating areal shifts, hotspots for emigrants, immigrants, and persistent species were identified under climate change. Flexible conservation strategies were addressed for those regions. Those strategies strongly depend on the migration types of species and sensitivity of the hotspots to changing climate. In hotspots for emigrants, the main conservation strategy is ex situ protection; protected species from these regions should be stored in seed banks or botanical gardens. For hotspots of immigrants, enough space should be maintained for new species, and some measures are necessary to assist dispersal. For hotspots of persistent species, more natural reserves are needed. We highlight related fields that can help conserve protected species in the future, such as conserving the soil seed bank and understanding of the effects of migration ability and interactions between protected species.     

Astronomical pacing of methane release in the Early Jurassic period

A pronounced negative carbon-isotope (delta13C) excursion of approximately 5-7 per thousand (refs 1-7) indicates the occurrence of a significant perturbation to the global carbon cycle during the Early Jurassic period (early Toarcian age, approximately 183 million years ago). The rapid release of 12C-enriched biogenic methane as a result of continental-shelf methane hydrate dissociation has been put forward as a possible explanation for this observation. Here we report high-resolution organic carbon-isotope data from well-preserved mudrocks in Yorkshire, UK, which demonstrate that the carbon-isotope excursion occurred in three abrupt stages, each showing a shift of -2 per thousand to -3 per thousand. Spectral analysis of these carbon-isotope measurements and of high-resolution carbonate abundance data reveals a regular cyclicity. We interpret these results as providing strong evidence that methane release proceeded in three rapid pulses and that these pulses were controlled by astronomically forced changes in climate, superimposed upon longer-term global warming. We also find that the first two pulses of methane release each coincided with the extinction of a large proportion of marine species.     

Dynamic response of Permian brachiopod communities to long-term environmental change

The fossil record preserves numerous natural experiments that can shed light on the response of ecological communities to environmental change. However, directly observing the community dynamics of extinct organisms is not possible. As an alternative, neutral ecological models suggest that species abundance distributions reflect dynamical processes like migration, competition, recruitment, and extinction. Live-dead comparisons suggest that such distributions can be faithfully preserved in the rock record. Here we use a maximum-likelihood approach to show that brachiopod (lamp shell) abundance distributions from four temporally distinct ecological landscapes from the Glass Mountains, Texas (of the Permian period), exhibit significant differences. Further, all four are better fitted by zero-sum multinomial distributions, characteristic of Hubbell's neutral model, than by log-normal distributions, as predicted by the traditional ecological null hypothesis. Using the neutral model as a guide, we suggest that sea level fluctuations spanning about 10 Myr altered the degrees of isolation and exchange among local communities within these ecological landscapes. Neither these long-term environmental changes nor higher-frequency sea level fluctuations resulted in wholesale extinction or major innovation within evolutionary lineages.     

Low sea level rise projections from mountain glaciers and icecaps under global warming

The mean sea level has been projected to rise in the 21st century as a result of global warming. Such projections of sea level change depend on estimated future greenhouse emissions and on differing models, but model-average results from a mid-range scenario (A1B) suggests a 0.387-m rise by 2100 (refs 1, 2). The largest contributions to sea level rise are estimated to come from thermal expansion (0.288 m) and the melting of mountain glaciers and icecaps (0.106 m), with smaller inputs from Greenland (0.024 m) and Antarctica (- 0.074 m). Here we apply a melt model and a geometric volume model to our lower estimate of ice volume and assess the contribution of glaciers to sea level rise, excluding those in Greenland and Antarctica. We provide the first separate assessment of melt contributions from mountain glaciers and icecaps, as well as an improved treatment of volume shrinkage. We find that icecaps melt more slowly than mountain glaciers, whose area declines rapidly in the 21st century, making glaciers a limiting source for ice melt. Using two climate models, we project sea level rise due to melting of mountain glaciers and icecaps to be 0.046 and 0.051 m by 2100, about half that of previous projections.     

Soil moisture-based study of the variability of dry-wet climate and climate zones in China

An ensemble soil moisture dataset was produced from 11 of 25 global climate model (GCM) simulations for two climate scenarios spanning 1900 to 2099; this dataset was based on an evaluation of the spatial correlation of means and trends in reference to soil moisture simulations conducted using the community land model driven by observed atmospheric forcing. Using the ensemble soil moisture index, we analyzed the dry-wet climate variability and the dynamics of the climate zone boundaries in China over this 199-year period. The results showed that soil moisture increased in the typically arid regions, but with insignificant trends in the humid regions; furthermore, the soil moisture exhibited strong oscillations with significant drought trends in the transition zones between arid and humid regions. The dynamics of climate zone boundaries indicated that the expansion of semiarid regions and the contraction of semi-humid regions are typical characteristics of the dry-wet climate variability for two scenarios in China. During the 20th century, the total area of semiarid regions expanded by 11.5% north of 30°N in China, compared to the average area for 1970–1999, but that of semi-humid regions decreased by approximately 9.8% in comparison to the average for the period of 1970–1999, even though the transfer area of the humid to the semi-humid regions was taken into account. For the 21st century, the dynamics exhibit similar trends of climate boundaries, but with greater intensity.     

Universal species-area and endemics-area relationships at continental scales

Despite the broad conceptual and applied relevance of how the number of species or endemics changes with area (the species-area and endemics-area relationships (SAR and EAR)), our understanding of universality and pervasiveness of these patterns across taxa and regions has remained limited. The SAR has traditionally been approximated by a power law, but recent theories predict a triphasic SAR in logarithmic space, characterized by steeper increases in species richness at both small and large spatial scales. Here we uncover such universally upward accelerating SARs for amphibians, birds and mammals across the world’s major landmasses. Although apparently taxon-specific and continent-specific, all curves collapse into one universal function after the area is rescaled by using the mean range sizes of taxa within continents. In addition, all EARs approximately follow a power law with a slope close to 1, indicating that for most spatial scales there is roughly proportional species extinction with area loss. These patterns can be predicted by a simulation model based on the random placement of contiguous ranges within a domain. The universality of SARs and EARs after rescaling implies that both total and endemic species richness within an area, and also their rate of change with area, can be estimated by using only the knowledge of mean geographic range size in the region and mean species richness at one spatial scale.     

Predictive accuracy of population viability analysis in conservation biology

Population viability analysis (PVA) is widely applied in conservation biology to predict extinction risks for threatened species and to compare alternative options for their management. It can also be used as a basis for listing species as endangered under World Conservation Union criteria. However, there is considerable scepticism regarding the predictive accuracy of PVA, mainly because of a lack of validation in real systems. Here we conducted a retrospective test of PVA based on 21 long-term ecological studies--the first comprehensive and replicated evaluation of the predictive powers of PVA. Parameters were estimated from the first half of each data set and the second half was used to evaluate the performance of the model. Contrary to recent criticisms, we found that PVA predictions were surprisingly accurate. The risk of population decline closely matched observed outcomes, there was no significant bias, and population size projections did not differ significantly from reality. Furthermore, the predictions of the five PVA software packages were highly concordant. We conclude that PVA is a valid and sufficiently accurate tool for categorizing and managing endangered species.     

Functional genomic analysis of cell division in C. elegans using RNAi of genes on chromosome III

Genome sequencing projects generate a wealth of information; however, the ultimate goal of such projects is to accelerate the identification of the biological function of genes. This creates a need for comprehensive studies to fill the gap between sequence and function. Here we report the results of a functional genomic screen to identify genes required for cell division in Caenorhabditis elegans. We inhibited the expression of approximately 96% of the approximately 2,300 predicted open reading frames on chromosome III using RNA-mediated interference (RNAi). By using an in vivo time-lapse differential interference contrast microscopy assay, we identified 133 genes (approximately 6%) necessary for distinct cellular processes in early embryos. Our results indicate that these genes represent most of the genes on chromosome III that are required for proper cell division in C. elegans embryos. The complete data set, including sample time-lapse recordings, has been deposited in an open access database. We found that approximately 47% of the genes associated with a differential interference contrast phenotype have clear orthologues in other eukaryotes, indicating that this screen provides putative gene functions for other species as well.     

Catastrophic extinctions follow deforestation in Singapore

The looming mass extinction of biodiversity in the humid tropics is a major concern for the future, yet most reports of extinctions in these regions are anecdotal or conjectural, with a scarcity of robust, broad-based empirical data. Here we report on local extinctions among a wide range of terrestrial and freshwater taxa from Singapore (540 km2) in relation to habitat loss exceeding 95% over 183 years. Substantial rates of documented and inferred extinctions were found, especially for forest specialists, with the greatest proportion of extinct taxa (34-87%) in butterflies, fish, birds and mammals. Observed extinctions were generally fewer, but inferred losses often higher, in vascular plants, phasmids, decapods, amphibians and reptiles (5-80%). Forest reserves comprising only 0.25% of Singapore's area now harbour over 50% of the residual native biodiversity. Extrapolations of the observed and inferred local extinction data, using a calibrated species-area model, imply that the current unprecedented rate of habitat destruction in Southeast Asia will result in the loss of 13-42% of regional populations over the next century, at least half of which will represent global species extinctions.     

Amygdala intercalated neurons are required for expression of fear extinction

Congruent findings from studies of fear learning in animals and humans indicate that research on the circuits mediating fear constitutes our best hope of understanding human anxiety disorders. In mammals, repeated presentations of a conditioned stimulus that was previously paired to a noxious stimulus leads to the gradual disappearance of conditioned fear responses. Although much evidence suggests that this extinction process depends on plastic events in the amygdala, the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Intercalated (ITC) amygdala neurons constitute probable mediators of extinction because they receive information about the conditioned stimulus from the basolateral amygdala (BLA), and contribute inhibitory projections to the central nucleus (CEA), the main output station of the amygdala for conditioned fear responses. Thus, after extinction training, ITC cells could reduce the impact of conditioned-stimulus-related BLA inputs to the CEA by means of feed-forward inhibition. Here we test the hypothesis that ITC neurons mediate extinction by lesioning them with a toxin that selectively targets cells expressing micro-opioid receptors (microORs). Electron microscopic observations revealed that the incidence of microOR-immunoreactive synapses is much higher in ITC cell clusters than in the BLA or CEA and that microORs typically have a post-synaptic location in ITC cells. In keeping with this, bilateral infusions of the microOR agonist dermorphin conjugated to the toxin saporin in the vicinity of ITC neurons caused a 34% reduction in the number of ITC cells but no significant cell loss in surrounding nuclei. Moreover, ITC lesions caused a marked deficit in the expression of extinction that correlated negatively with the number of surviving ITC neurons but not CEA cells. Because ITC cells exhibit an unusual pattern of receptor expression, these findings open new avenues for the treatment of anxiety disorders.     

黄土高原退耕还林（草）以来植被水分利用效率的时空特征及预测

 水分利用效率（WUE）是评估生态系统水碳循环的重要指标。基于PT-JPL模型的区域尺度实际蒸散发（ET）的模拟结果，结合黄土高原的总初级生产力（GPP），分析了退耕还林（草）工程实施后黄土高原水分利用效率WUE的时空变化趋势，结合CMIP6对未来3种情景下黄土高原的ET、GPP和WUE进行了预测。结果表明：2001-2015年，黄土高原植被显著增加， GPP和ET分别以每年3.59 g C·m^-2和4.39 mm的速率增加。WUE在72.68%的地区呈增加趋势，区域增长率为0.003 g C·mm^-1·m^-2·a^-1。在2015-2100年的3种情景中， ET均呈增加趋势，而GPP和WUE在SSP126中变化不大，在SSP245、SSP370情景中显著增加， WUE随着GPP的增加而增加。WUE结合了水资源的“消耗”和“利用”来阐明退耕还林（草）工程的成效，植被恢复虽然增加了区域耗水量，但是显著改善了植被覆盖情况，有效地提高了植被的固碳能力和水分利用效率，整个黄土高原植被的抗旱能力在增强。未来需进一步分析不同树种的WUE，筛选出抗旱性更高的树种进行植被恢复工作。     

循环竞争引起的集合种群时空波

在集合种群框架下研究了循环竞争关系.基于Tilman的多物种竞争模型和均匀场假设,建立了三物种循环竞争的Lavins型集合种群模型.在局部扩散的假设下,依据马尔科夫过程理论建立了概率转移模型.解析分析和计算机模拟的结果表明Lavins型模型表现出阶段性平衡动态,即特定的时刻只有一个物种在群落中占有绝对数量,但很快就被它的优势物种取代,这样三物种轮流处于优势地位;概率转移模型却呈现出在时间和空间上的混沌动态行为,模拟结果表现为一种螺旋生物波;这说明局部扩散可以弱化竞争引起的种群振荡,引起空间分布的异质性,同时表明Lavins型集合种群模型可能低估了物种共存的条件.     

Ecosystem valuation and the conservation of wild lands in vigorous economic regions:A case study in Jiuduansha Wetland,Shanghai

As the loss of wild lands to satisfy traditional economic development has become a global environmental problem in recent decades, using ecosystem valuation to estimate the total economic value (TEV) of an ecosystem has become popular. The main purpose of the ecosystem valuation is to strengthen the importance of ecosystems, and bring the ecosystem services into the traditional cost-benefit analyses of land use strategy. Some studies have illustrated that in remote areas, wilderness can produce more value if it is conserved, rather than converted to traditional agricultural or industrial uses. The same situation does not seem to exist in vigorous economic regions. Thus, a case study was conducted on the Jiuduansha Wetland in Shanghai using three approaches: the direct market valuation, the replacement valuation and the contingent valuation. The net present TEVs of three land use scenarios over one hundred years were evaluated. The results proved that simply based on ecosystem valuation, when compared with the other two scenarios of "conservation" and "selective use", "partial conversion into terrene (dry land)" of Jiuduansha might be the optimal scenario for the well-being of the people in Shanghai. Land price was identified as the most important factor. This situation is likely due to the scarcity of land available for traditional economic development in Shanghai. Thus, we speculated that the fate of the wilderness to "be destroyed" in vigorous economic regions could not be changed simply based on ecosystem valuation. However, the variety of interest by local residents in wilderness might enhance the TEVs of scenarios such as "conservation" and "selective use", and affect the valuation results. Since some important benefits of natural ecosystems remain unknown and others are underestimated, we suggested that any land use decisions regarding the Jiuduansha Wetland should be conservative and cautious as converting wetlands into terrene is an irreversible process.     

华南晚古生代Zoophycos时空分布及其控制因素

 基于对华南晚古生代3条剖面Zoophycos的精细解剖和前人资料分析,识别了螺旋形和舌形Zoophycos两种形态,揭示了华南晚古生代Zoophycos时空分布具有3个方面的特征：(1) 在时间上,Zoophycos广泛分布于早-中泥盆世(埃姆斯期-艾菲尔期)、密西西比亚纪(维宪期)及中二叠世(沃德期);(2) 在空间上,Zoophycos主要发育于黔东南、湘中南、桂东北一带;(3) 临滨至浅海下部是Zoophycos的主要产出环境。研究表明,华南晚古代Zoophycos的时空分布与大气含氧量(17%—24%),气候和温度(20—25℃),海水地球化学成分(方解石海Mg/Ca<2)以及生物灭绝事件等具有耦合关系。