工作家庭冲突对生活满意感的影响：个人应对策略的调节作用

近年来,工作家庭冲突是组织行为学领域的研究重点。已有研究表明,这类因员工无法同时兼顾工作角色和家庭角色要。求而产生的角色间的冲突和压力,会对员工的生活满意感造成负面影响。本研究认为适宜的个人应对策略能够调节这两者之间的关系,通过对某国有企业193名被试的问卷调查,得出以下结论：1）工作－家庭冲突和家庭－工作冲突对生活满意感都有显著的负面影响;2）员工家庭优先策略能够缓解工作－家庭冲突对生活满意感的负面影响,员工工作完美策略能够缓解家庭,工作冲突所带来的压力感。     

The first mite: insect genealogy in Hooke’s Micrographia*

What happens when you take the idea of the biblical Adam—the first human – and apply it to insects? You create an origin story for Nature’s tiniest creatures, one that gives them ‘a Pedigree as ancient as the first creation’. This the naturalist Robert Hooke argued in his treatise, the Micrographia (1665). In what follows, I will retrace how Hooke endeavoured to show that insects—then widely believed to have arisen out of the dirt – were the products of an ancient lineage. These genealogies, while constructed from empirical observation, were conjectures of the imagination. Section 2 shows how Hooke introduced the concept of a ‘prime parent’ (an Adam-insect) to explain the anatomical similarities between ‘mites’. Section 3 demonstrates how Hooke defined the family of “gnats” as tiny machines built from the same components and relates Hookean genealogies to contemporary ideas about Noah’s Ark. Section 4 shows how Hooke outlined the morphology of ‘insects’ (delineating what we now call arthropods). Section 5 explores how Hooke used fossils to study these animals in the distant past. In sum, Hooke was turning natural history – collecting and describing insects – into natural history: reconstructing their origins.     

Some practical aspects of forecasting in organizations

This paper presents the writer's experience, over a period of 25 years, in analysing organizational systems and, in particular, concentrates on the overall forecasting activity. The paper first looks at the relationship between forecasting and decision taking–with emphasis on the fact that forecasting is a means to aid decision taking and not an end in itself. It states that there are many types of forecasting problems, each requiring different methods of treatment. The paper then discusses attitudes which are emerging about the relative advantages of different forecasting techniques. It suggests a model building process which requires‘experience’and‘craftsmanship’, extensive practical application, frequent interaction between theory and practice and a methodology that eventually leads to models that contain no detectable inadequacies. Furthermore, it argues that although models which forecast a time series from its past history have a very important role to play, for effective policy making it is necessary to augment the model by introducing policy variables, again in a systematic not an ‘ad hoc’ manner. Finally, the paper discusses how forecasting systems can be introduced into the management process in the first place and how they should be monitored and updated when found wanting.     

The emergence of objectivity: Fleck,Foucault, Kuhn and Hacking

The analytical notions of ‘thought style’, ‘paradigm’, ‘episteme’ and ‘style of reasoning’ are some of the most popular frameworks in the history and philosophy of science. Although their proponents, Ludwik Fleck, Thomas Kuhn, Michel Foucault, and Ian Hacking, are all part of the same philosophical tradition that closely connects history and philosophy, the extent to which they share similar assumptions and objectives is still under debate. In the first part of the paper, I shall argue that, despite the fact that these four thinkers disagree on certain assumptions, their frameworks have the same explanatory goal – to understand how objectivity is possible. I shall present this goal as a necessary element of a common project -- that of historicising Kant's a priori. In the second part of the paper, I shall make an instrumental use of the insights of these four thinkers to form a new model for studying objectivity. I shall also propose a layered diagram that allows the differences between the frameworks to be mapped, while acknowledging their similarities. This diagram will show that the frameworks of style of reasoning and episteme illuminate conditions of possibility that lie at a deeper level than those considered by thought styles and paradigms.     

Effect of regressor forecast error on the variance of regression forecasts

It is well understood that the standard formulation for the variance of a regression‐model forecast produces interval estimates that are too narrow, principally because it ignores regressor forecast error. While the theoretical problem has been addressed, there has not been an adequate explanation of the effect of regressor forecast error, and the empirical literature has supplied a disparate variety of bits and pieces of evidence. Most business‐forecasting software programs continue to supply only the standard formulation. This paper extends existing analysis to derive and evaluate large‐sample approximations for the forecast error variance in a single‐equation regression model. We show how these approximations substantially clarify the expected effects of regressor forecast error. We then present a case study, which (a) demonstrates how rolling out‐of‐sample evaluations can be applied to obtain empirical estimates of the forecast error variance, (b) shows that these estimates are consistent with our large‐sample approximations and (c) illustrates, for ‘typical’ data, how seriously the standard formulation can understate the forecast error variance. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hobbes on natural philosophy as “True Physics” and mixed mathematics

In this paper, I offer an alternative account of the relationship of Hobbesian geometry to natural philosophy by arguing that mixed mathematics provided Hobbes with a model for thinking about it. In mixed mathematics, one may borrow causal principles from one science and use them in another science without there being a deductive relationship between those two sciences. Natural philosophy for Hobbes is mixed because an explanation may combine observations from experience (the ‘that’) with causal principles from geometry (the ‘why’). My argument shows that Hobbesian natural philosophy relies upon suppositions that bodies plausibly behave according to these borrowed causal principles from geometry, acknowledging that bodies in the world may not actually behave this way. First, I consider Hobbes's relation to Aristotelian mixed mathematics and to Isaac Barrow's broadening of mixed mathematics in Mathematical Lectures (1683). I show that for Hobbes maker's knowledge from geometry provides the ‘why’ in mixed-mathematical explanations. Next, I examine two explanations from De corpore Part IV: (1) the explanation of sense in De corpore 25.1-2; and (2) the explanation of the swelling of parts of the body when they become warm in De corpore 27.3. In both explanations, I show Hobbes borrowing and citing geometrical principles and mixing these principles with appeals to experience.     

基于职业高原、职业倦怠和人力资本模糊性的企业中层管理人才保留策略研究

利用职业生涯高原理论、职业倦怠理论和人力资本理论，定性探询企业中层管理人才离职的心理动因和保留策略。结果表明，职业生涯高原期产生的自我成就感下降、职业倦怠期导致的织承诺降低、人力资本模糊性引发的组织公平感缺失是企业中层管理人才产生离职倾向的三大心理诱因。不仅如此，自我成就感下降和组织公平感缺失，还可以进一步加重中层管理人才的职业倦怠期及织承诺降低。三种心理动因“叠加”，对中层管理人才离职具有强烈的驱动作用。企业可以通过拓宽中层管理人才的职业发展路径，承认其人力资本成分，满足其自我成就的心理需求，增强其组织承诺、组织认同感、组织归属感和依赖感，使其“不愿意离职”、“不能意离职”。同时，增加中层管理人才的离职成本，使其“不敢离职”。     

Hippocrates’ complaint and the scientific ethos in early modern England

Among the elements of the modern scientific ethos, as identified by R.K. Merton and others, is the commitment of individual effort to a long-term inquiry that may not bring substantial results in a lifetime. The challenge this presents was encapsulated in the aphorism of the ancient Greek physician, Hippocrates of Kos: vita brevis, ars longa (life is short, art is long). This article explores how this complaint was answered in the early modern period by Francis Bacon’s call for the inauguration of the sciences over several generations, thereby imagining a succession of lives added together over time. However, Bacon also explored another response to Hippocrates: the devotion of a ‘whole life’, whether brief or long, to science. The endorsement of long-term inquiry in combination with intensive lifetime involvement was embraced by some leading Fellows of the Royal Society, such as Robert Boyle and Robert Hooke. The problem for individuals, however, was to find satisfaction in science despite concerns, in some fields, that current observations and experiments would not yield material able to be extended by future investigations.     

The early history of chance in evolution

Work throughout the history and philosophy of biology frequently employs ‘chance’, ‘unpredictability’, ‘probability’, and many similar terms. One common way of understanding how these concepts were introduced in evolution focuses on two central issues: the first use of statistical methods in evolution (Galton), and the first use of the concept of “objective chance” in evolution (Wright). I argue that while this approach has merit, it fails to fully capture interesting philosophical reflections on the role of chance expounded by two of Galton's students, Karl Pearson and W.F.R. Weldon. Considering a question more familiar from contemporary philosophy of biology—the relationship between our statistical theories of evolution and the processes in the world those theories describe—is, I claim, a more fruitful way to approach both these two historical actors and the broader development of chance in evolution.     

Household projection methods

"The role of household projections as a basis for forecasts of households at [the] national and sub-national level is discussed and a number of criteria for such projections are outlined. The projection method used by the Department of the Environment [in the United Kingdom] is examined in the context of these criteria and it is concluded that it is both practical and robust. However, it is open to criticism, first because of its failure to make the best use of the available data and of theoretical knowledge, and secondly because of its 'black box' nature. An alternative two-stage strategy is developed. The first stage involves constructing projections using a new curve-fitting method which takes account of within cohort life-cycle headship rate changes. The second is a method of analysing the resulting projections by modelling transition rates between different household states. Worked examples of both methods are presented."     

The mathematician Rehuel Lobatto advocates life insurances in The Netherlands in the period 1830–1860

In 1807 the first life insurance society was established in The Netherlands. In the second half of the century, life insurance societies underwent considerable expansion. During the intervening period, the lines had to be laid along which this new phenomenon was to develop in the future: between 1827 and 1830, the government started discussing the nature of its responsibility in this field and the kind of policy to be developed, and in 1830, a book on the organization of life insurance societies, the calculation of life annuities and widows' fund premiums was published, written by the mathematician Rehuel Lobatto. This book played an important role in the government's discussion. Royal Decrees which prescribed government approval for the establishment of life assurance societies were promulgated in 1830, 1833 and 1840. In 1832, Lobatto became the government's scientific adviser on the assessment of the calculations performed by these societies, and in the same year, he was also appointed adviser to the first life insurance society. From 1832 until his death in 1866 he advised the company on the use of life tables for life as well as for reversionary annuities, and he calculated the premiums based on these life tables. Another decree was promulgated in 1864 prescribing exactly which life tables were to be used. Because Lobatto probably played a part in this decree, he was responsible for a very ‘conservative’ government policy, which was no longer adequate in the second half of the century.     

The Archaean Controversy in Britain: Part III—The rocks of Anglesey and Caernarvonshire

A detailed account is given of the development of the Archaean Controversy in Caernarvonshire and Anglesey. Sedgwick had found no base for his Cambrian in North Wales, but had intimated that some of the unfossiliferous rocks of the Lleyn Peninsula and Anglesey might be older than his Cambrian. He also described two ‘ribs’ of igneous rock: one running from Caernarvon to Bangor; the other inland, parallel to the first and crossing the Llanberis Pass at Llyn Padarn. The early Surveyors (especially Ramsay) supposed that these ‘ribs’ had altered the surrounding rocks, and the resulting ‘Altered Cambrian’ could be traced across the Menai Strait to Anglesey, where it formed the various metamorphic rocks of that island. This view (which thus denied the occurrence of Precambrian on Anglesey) was challenged by the usual coalition of ‘amateurs’ (Hicks, Hughes, Bonney, Callaway, Blake, etc.) with attempts being made to recognize a sequence of Archaean rocks in North Wales similar to that in Pembrokeshire. However, vigorous debate occurred amongst the ‘Archaean’ geologists themselves, especially about a rock at Twt Hill, Caernarvon, and about a claimed unconformity at the base of the Cambrian in the Llanberis Pass, perhaps adjacent to the Llyn Padarn ‘rib’. (This was at first regarded as a Precambrian ‘island’ like those claimed at St David's, the Malverns, etc.) Vigorous debate took place about the location of the claimed Llanberis unconformity, but the ‘Archaeans’ were united in regarding the metamorphic rocks of Anglesey as Precambrian (or Archaean). Eventually, the greywackes of Anglesey, and around Bangor and Caernarvon, were identified as Ordovician, not Cambrian. Very detailed map-work in Anglesey was carried out privately by Edward Greenly, and his results were published by the Survey in the form of a map and a high-quality Memoir. Greenly utilized for Anglesey tectonic ideas derived from his earlier fieldwork in the Scottish Highlands, so that although his mapping and stratigraphical divisions have proved to be of permanent value it is believed that his structures for Anglesey were mistaken and his stratigraphic sequence inverted. The Survey eventually abandoned its earlier (Ramsay) model of Anglesey without too much difficulty; and the igneous ‘rib’ of Llyn Padarn is now construed as an ignimbrite. However, a definite base for the Cambrian has still not been found in Caernarvonshire, and the stratigraphical evidence for the Precambrian age of the Anglesey rocks (by perceived unconformity with known Cambrian strata) remains incomplete. The study reveals the great difficulty experienced by early geologists when working in unfossiliferous rocks, the evidence from included fragments proving particularly uncertain. The paper also examines further the community of nineteenth-century British geologists, with their various factions and competing interests.     

Comparing dualities and gauge symmetries

We discuss some aspects of the relation between dualities and gauge symmetries. Both of these ideas are of course multi-faceted, and we confine ourselves to making two points. Both points are about dualities in string theory, and both have the ‘flavour’ that two dual theories are ‘closer in content’ than you might think. For both points, we adopt a simple conception of a duality as an ‘isomorphism’ between theories: more precisely, as appropriate bijections between the two theories’ sets of states and sets of quantities.The first point (Section 3) is that this conception of duality meshes with two dual theories being ‘gauge related’ in the general philosophical sense of being physically equivalent. For a string duality, such as T-duality and gauge/gravity duality, this means taking such features as the radius of a compact dimension, and the dimensionality of spacetime, to be ‘gauge’.The second point (4 Gauge/gravity duality, 5 Some complications for gauge invariance, 6 Galileo׳s ship, (Local)) is much more specific. We give a result about gauge/gravity duality that shows its relation to gauge symmetries (in the physical sense of symmetry transformations that are spacetime-dependent) to be subtler than you might expect. For gauge theories, you might expect that the duality bijections relate only gauge-invariant quantities and states, in the sense that gauge symmetries in one theory will be unrelated to any symmetries in the other theory. This may be so in general; and indeed, it is suggested by discussions of Polchinski and Horowitz. But we show that in gauge/gravity duality, each of a certain class of gauge symmetries in the gravity/bulk theory, viz. diffeomorphisms, is related by the duality to a position-dependent symmetry of the gauge/boundary theory.     

Local to unity,long‐horizon forecasting thresholds for model selection in the AR(1)

This article introduces a novel framework for analysing long‐horizon forecasting of the near non‐stationary AR(1) model. Using the local to unity specification of the autoregressive parameter, I derive the asymptotic distributions of long‐horizon forecast errors both for the unrestricted AR(1), estimated using an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression, and for the random walk (RW). I then identify functions, relating local to unity ‘drift’ to forecast horizon, such that OLS and RW forecasts share the same expected square error. OLS forecasts are preferred on one side of these ‘forecasting thresholds’, while RW forecasts are preferred on the other. In addition to explaining the relative performance of forecasts from these two models, these thresholds prove useful in developing model selection criteria that help a forecaster reduce error. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Histories of molecules: Reconciling the past

Molecular data and methods have become centrally important to evolutionary analysis, largely because they have enabled global phylogenetic reconstructions of the relationships between organisms in the tree of life. Often, however, molecular stories conflict dramatically with morphology-based histories of lineages. The evolutionary origin of animal groups provides one such case. In other instances, different molecular analyses have so far proved irreconcilable. The ancient and major divergence of eukaryotes from prokaryotic ancestors is an example of this sort of problem. Efforts to overcome these conflicts highlight the role models play in phylogenetic reconstruction. One crucial model is the molecular clock; another is that of ‘simple-to-complex’ modification. I will examine animal and eukaryote evolution against a backdrop of increasing methodological sophistication in molecular phylogeny, and conclude with some reflections on the nature of historical science in the molecular era of phylogeny.     

Spacetime without Reference Frames: An Application to the Velocity Addition Paradox

Much conceptualisation in contemporary physics is bogged down by unnecessary assumptions concerning a specific choice of coordinates which often leads to misunderstandings and paradoxes. Considering an absolute (coordinate-free) formulation of special relativistic spacetime, we show clearly that the velocity addition paradox emerged because the use of coordinates obscures that the space of relativistic observers is ‘more relative’ than the space of non-relativistic observers.     

From forecasting to ‘la prospective’ a new way of looking at futures

Although‘La Prospective’is not well known in the Anglo-Saxon forecasting literature, it has been for many years widely used in France and other Latin countries with considerable success. Lately, because of the inaccuracy of forecasting and the large forecasting errors that have been experienced, it is suggested that the Prospective approach can be used as a way of dealing with these problems. The main characteristics of‘La Prospective’are that it does not look at the future as a continuation of the past but rather as the outcome of the wishes of various actors and the constraints imposed on them by the environment. Its purpose is to assist in creating alternative futures and then select some alternative that allows for maximum freedom of action.     

Strategic bias and professional affiliations of macroeconomic forecasters

This paper investigates strategic motives of macroeconomic forecasters and the effect of their professional affiliations. The ‘wishful expectations hypothesis’ suggests that a forecaster predicts what his employer wishes. The ‘publicity hypothesis’ argues that forecasters are evaluated by both accuracy and ability to generate publicity, and that forecasters in industries that emphasize publicity most will make most extreme and least accurate predictions. The ‘signaling hypothesis’ asserts that an extreme forecast signals confidence in own ability, because incompetent forecasters would mimic others to avoid public notice. Empirical evidence from a 26‐year panel of annual GDP forecasts is con‐sistent with the publicity hypothesis. This indicates that conventional tests of rationality are biased toward rejecting the rational expectations hypothesis. Copyright ? 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.