共查询到8条相似文献，搜索用时 0 毫秒
1.
Zidong An João Tovar Jalles Prakash Loungani Ricardo M. Sousa 《Journal of forecasting》2018,37(6):650-665
We used a panel of 29 advanced and emerging market countries to investigate whether the IMF's World Economic Outlook (WEO) fiscal forecasts add value in terms of forecast accuracy and information content, relative to private sector forecasts (from Consensus Economics). We find that: (i) WEO forecasts are not significantly less accurate than Consensus forecasts; (ii) WEO and Consensus forecasts tend to mutually encompass one another; and (iii) each source of forecasts appears to contain some information that is not embedded in the other source. 相似文献
2.
Susanna‐maria Paleologou 《Journal of forecasting》2005,24(5):311-324
We test the extent to which political manoeuvrings can be the sources of measurement errors in forecasts. Our objective is to examine the forecast error based on a simple model in which we attempt to explain deviations between the March budget forecast and the November forecast, and deviations between the outcome and the March budget forecast in the UK. The analysis is based on forecasts made by the general government. We use the forecasts of the variables as alternatives to the outcomes. We also test for political spins in the GDP forecast updates and the GDP forecast errors. We find evidence of partisan and electoral effects in forecast updates and forecast errors. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
3.
Fiscal transparency entails fiscal information disclosure, ensuring good quality of such information, public and parliamentary scrutiny, and the oversight of fiscal risks, while the concept of budget credibility involves an assessment of the extent of conformity of budgetary outturn to the planned forecasts. There are two main channels through which fiscal transparency can affect budget credibility: politicians' incentives to manipulate fiscal forecasts or deviate from the plans, and the uncertainty‐reducing effect in the light of fiscal risks. This study empirically examines the impact of the dimensions of fiscal transparency on deviations from budgetary forecasts, and hence budget credibility, in developing countries using regression analysis. The results show that an improvement in the oversight of fiscal risks arising from public sector entities plays a very significant role in decreasing the deviations from budgetary forecasts in developing countries. The study accords with the view that a relatively less important weight should be attached to the fiscal disclosure component in analyzing fiscal transparency, and it sheds light on the importance of ensuring good quality of disclosed information through more independence of audit bodies in developing countries in order to enhance the credibility of their budgets. 相似文献
4.
Florian Ielpo 《Journal of forecasting》2013,32(3):226-246
We question the ability of macroeconomic data to predict risk appetite and ‘flight‐to‐quality’ periods in the European credit market using a model inspired by the Markov switching literature. This model allows for a direct mapping of exogenous variables into state probabilities. We find that various surveys and transformed hard data have a forecasting power. We show that despite its depth, the 2008–2009 crisis should not be regarded as an unusual episode that would have to be modelled by an additional state. Finally, we show that our model outperforms a pure Markov switching model in terms of forecasting accuracy, thus clearly indicating that economic figures are helpful in forecasting the credit cycle. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
地下生态学过程是指陆地生态系统地下部分结构、功能的动态变化过程,它与地上过程高度关联,是全面理解生态系统结构和功能,特别是对全球气候变化响应和适应机理的关键.气候变暖和降水变化是气候变化的两个重要方面,它们对地下生态学过程各个方面的影响复杂且重要,然而目前在这方面的综述文章并不多见.本文综述了气候变暖和降水变化对土壤碳收支、氮循环、土壤生物以及植物细根的周转等方面的研究进展,并在此基础上分析了相关研究领域的主要瓶颈,提出了一些亟待解决的科学问题,期望促进气候变化背景下地下生态学的发展. 相似文献
6.
A Hidden Markov Model (HMM) is used to classify an out‐of‐sample observation vector into either of two regimes. This leads to a procedure for making probability forecasts for changes of regimes in a time series, i.e. for turning points. Instead of estimating past turning points using maximum likelihood, the model is estimated with respect to known past regimes. This makes it possible to perform feature extraction and estimation for different forecasting horizons. The inference aspect is emphasized by including a penalty for a wrong decision in the cost function. The method, here called a ‘Markov Bayesian Classifier (MBC)’, is tested by forecasting turning points in the Swedish and US economies, using leading data. Clear and early turning point signals are obtained, contrasting favourably with earlier HMM studies. Some theoretical arguments for this are given. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
7.
In this study, we investigate the connection between geopolitical risk (GPR) and global financial cycle (GFCy) as well as whether the former has predictive value for the out-of-sample predictability of the latter. We utilize both the historical and recent GPR data and their variants, namely, GPR act covering all “acts” that constitute GPR such as war, nuclear invasion and terrorism, and GPR threat, which represents threats of these acts. We construct a predictive model that accommodates the salient features of the predicted and predictor series while the forecast evaluation is conducted for both in-sample and out-of-sample periods. Our findings reveal that a rise in GPR discourages investments in risky assets and by implication worsens GFCy. The impact is more severe after the global financial crisis (gfc), and the GPR threat exerts more adverse effect on GFCy compared with GPR act regardless of whether historical GPR or recent GPR is used. Meanwhile, the predictive model of GFCy that accommodates the GPR data outperforms the benchmark model that ignores it both in the in-sample and out-of-sample estimates albeit with improved forecast performance during the post-gfc period and at a longer forecast horizon. However, the recent GPR data, which are broader in scope, offer better forecast accuracy than the historical GPR data. Additional analyses involving the vulnerability of global economic conditions reveal similar outcomes as GFCy. 相似文献
8.
浅析美国联邦政府科研经费管理 总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1
程如烟 《世界科技研究与发展》2011,33(4):733-736
作为财政研发投入最高的国家,美国在政府科研经费的管理方面建立了完善的管理制度。本文从政府科研经费管理的全过程——科技经费管理体制、研发预算编制、各部门研发经费管理、科技计划（项目）经费管理以及基于绩效的经费管理分析了美国政府科研经费的管理制度,从而为我国完善政府科技经费管理提供借鉴。 相似文献