共查询到20条相似文献，搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
In recent years the singular spectrum analysis (SSA) technique has been further developed and applied to many practical problems. The aim of this research is to extend and apply the SSA method, using the UK Industrial Production series. The performance of the SSA and multivariate SSA (MSSA) techniques was assessed by applying it to eight series measuring the monthly seasonally unadjusted industrial production for the main sectors of the UK economy. The results are compared with those obtained using the autoregressive integrated moving average and vector autoregressive models. We also develop the concept of causal relationship between two time series based on the SSA techniques. We introduce several criteria which characterize this causality. The criteria and tests are based on the forecasting accuracy and predictability of the direction of change. The proposed tests are then applied and examined using the UK industrial production series. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
2.
An underlying assumption in Multivariate Singular Spectrum Analysis (MSSA) is that the time series are governed by a linear recurrent continuation. However, in the presence of a structural break, multiple series can be transferred from one homogeneous state to another over a comparatively short time breaking this assumption. As a consequence, forecasting performance can degrade significantly. In this paper, we propose a state-dependent model to incorporate the movement of states in the linear recurrent formula called a State-Dependent Multivariate SSA (SD-MSSA) model. The proposed model is examined for its reliability in the presence of a structural break by conducting an empirical analysis covering both synthetic and real data. Comparison with standard MSSA, BVAR, VAR and VECM models shows the proposed model outperforms all three models significantly. 相似文献
3.
Maximo Camacho 《Journal of forecasting》2004,23(3):173-196
In this paper, I extend to a multiple‐equation context the linearity, model selection and model adequacy tests recently proposed for univariate smooth transition regression models. Using this result, I examine the nonlinear forecasting power of the Conference Board composite index of leading indicators to predict both output growth and the business‐cycle phases of the US economy in real time. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
4.
This paper applies a tightly parameterized pattern recognition algorithm, previously applied to earthquake prediction, to the problem of predicting recessions. Monthly data from 1962 to 1996 on six leading and coincident economic indicators for the USA are used. In the full sample, the model performs better than benchmark linear and non‐linear models with the same number of parameters. Subsample and recursive analysis indicates that the algorithm is stable and produces reasonably accurate forecasts even when estimated using a small number of recessions. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
5.
This paper concerns the cyclical evolution of the Italian economy and, in particular, the role of confidence indicators. In the first part of the paper various confidence indicators, computed according to the European Commission (EC) methodology, are investigated. In particular, the analysis concentrates on the dynamics of some business climate indicators referred to the supply side of the economy (i.e. manufacturing, retail and construction industries). In the second part of the analysis, new confidence indicators exploring the wide informative set characterizing the ISAE business surveys are computed. The ability of these indicators in predicting the short‐term evolution of GDP, here considered as a reference series, is compared with that of the previous EC confidence indicators. Finally, in the third part, some estimates of the relationship between the chosen business confidence indicator and some driving variables are presented. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
6.
We consider the use of indices of leading indicators in forecasting and macro-economic modelling. The procedures used to select the components and construct the indices are examined, noting that the composition of indicator systems gets altered frequently. Cointegration within the indices, and between their components and macro-economic variables are considered as well as the role of co-breaking to mitigate regime shifts. Issues of model choice and data-based restrictions are investigated. A framework is proposed for index analysis and selecting indices, and applied to the UK longer-leading indicator. The effects of adding leading indicators to macro models are considered theoretically and for UK data. 相似文献
7.
We present and apply singular spectrum analysis (SSA), a relatively new, non‐parametric and data‐driven method for signal extraction (trends, seasonal and business cycle components) and forecasting of UK tourism income. Our results show that SSA slightly outperforms SARIMA and time‐varying‐parameter state space models in terms of root mean square error, mean absolute error and mean absolute percentage error forecasting criteria. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
8.
Estimation of the value at risk (VaR) requires prediction of the future volatility. Whereas this is a simple task in ARCH and related models, it becomes much more complicated in stochastic volatility (SV) processes where the volatility is a function of a latent variable that is not observable. In-sample (present and past values) and out-of-sample (future values) predictions of that unobservable variable are thus necessary. This paper proposes singular spectrum analysis (SSA), which is a fully nonparametric technique that can be used for both purposes. A combination of traditional forecasting techniques and SSA is also considered to estimate the VaR. Their performance is assessed in an extensive Monte Carlo and with an application to a daily series of S&P500 returns. 相似文献
9.
Nenad Njegovan 《Journal of forecasting》2005,24(6):421-432
This paper uses the probit model to examine whether leading indicator information could be used for the purpose of predicting short‐term shifts in demand for business travel by air to and from the UK. Leading indicators considered include measures of business expectations, availability of funds for corporate travel and some well‐known macroeconomic indicators. The model performance is evaluated on in‐ and out‐of‐sample basis, as well as against a linear leading indicator model, which is used to mimic the current forecasting practice in the air transport industry. The estimated probit model is shown to provide timely predictions of the early 1980s and 1990s industry recessions and is shown to be more accurate than the benchmark linear model. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
10.
Mehdi Mostaghimi 《Journal of forecasting》2004,23(7):463-477
On 26 November 2001, the National Bureau of Economic Research announced that the US economy had officially entered into a recession in March 2001. This decision was a surprise and did not end all the conflicting opinions expressed by economists. This matter was finally settled in July 2002 after a revision to the 2001 real gross domestic product showed negative growth rates for its first three quarters. A series of political and economic events in the years 2000–01 have increased the amount of uncertainty in the state of the economy, which in turn has resulted in the production of less reliable economic indicators and forecasts. This paper evaluates the performance of two very reliable methodologies for predicting a downturn in the US economy using composite leading economic indicators (CLI) for the years 2000–01. It explores the impact of the monetary policy on CLI and on the overall economy and shows how the gradualness and uncertainty of this impact on the overall economy have affected the forecasts of these methodologies. It suggests that the overexposure of the CLI to the monetary policy tools and a strong, but less effective, expansionary money policy have been the major factors in deteriorating the predictions of these methodologies. To improve these forecasts, it has explored the inclusion of the CLI diffusion index as a prior in the Bayesian methodology. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
11.
This paper presents short‐ and long‐term composite leading indicators (CLIs) of underlying inflation for seven EU countries, namely Belgium, Germany, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Sweden and the UK. CLI and CPI reference series are calculated in terms of both growth rates and in deviations from its trend. The composite leading indicators are based on leading basic series, such as sources of inflation, series containing information on inflation expectations and prices of intermediate goods and services. Neftci's decision rule approach has been applied to transfer movements in the CLIs into a measure of the probability of a cyclical turning point, which enables the screening out of false turning point predictions. Finally, CLIs have been used to analyse the international coherence of price cycles. The forecast performance of CLIs of inflation over the past raises hope that this forecast instrument can be useful in predicting future price movements. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
12.
Singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is a powerful nonparametric method in the area of time series analysis that has shown its capability in different applications areas. SSA depends on two main choices: the window length L and the number of eigentriples used for grouping r. One of the most important issues when analyzing time series is the forecast of new observations. When using SSA for time series forecasting there are several alternative algorithms, the most widely used being the recurrent forecasting model, which assumes that a given observation can be written as a linear combination of the L?1 previous observations. However, when the window length L is large, the forecasting model is unlikely to be parsimonious. In this paper we propose a new parsimonious recurrent forecasting model that uses an optimal m(<L?1) coefficients in the linear combination of the recurrent SSA. Our results support the idea of using this new parsimonious recurrent forecasting model instead of the standard recurrent SSA forecasting model. 相似文献
13.
Michael McCrae Yan‐Xia Lin Daniel Pavlik Chandra M. Gulati 《Journal of forecasting》2002,21(5):355-380
Conventional wisdom holds that restrictions on low‐frequency dynamics among cointegrated variables should provide more accurate short‐ to medium‐term forecasts than univariate techniques that contain no such information; even though, on standard accuracy measures, the information may not improve long‐term forecasting. But inconclusive empirical evidence is complicated by confusion about an appropriate accuracy criterion and the role of integration and cointegration in forecasting accuracy. We evaluate the short‐ and medium‐term forecasting accuracy of univariate Box–Jenkins type ARIMA techniques that imply only integration against multivariate cointegration models that contain both integration and cointegration for a system of five cointegrated Asian exchange rate time series. We use a rolling‐window technique to make multiple out of sample forecasts from one to forty steps ahead. Relative forecasting accuracy for individual exchange rates appears to be sensitive to the behaviour of the exchange rate series and the forecast horizon length. Over short horizons, ARIMA model forecasts are more accurate for series with moving‐average terms of order >1. ECMs perform better over medium‐term time horizons for series with no moving average terms. The results suggest a need to distinguish between ‘sequential’ and ‘synchronous’ forecasting ability in such comparisons. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
14.
We investigate the prediction of italian industrial production and first specify a model based on electricity consumption showing that the cubic trend in such a model mostly captures the evolution over time of the electricity coefficient, which can be well approximated by a smooth transition model, with no gains in predictive power. We also analyse the performance of models based on data of two different business surveys. According to the standard statistics of forecasting accuracy, the linear energy‐based model is not outperformed by any other model, nor by a combination of forecasts. However, a more comprehensive set of evaluation criteria sheds light on the relative merit of each individual model. A modelling strategy which makes full use of all information available is proposed. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
15.
The paper proposes a simulation‐based approach to multistep probabilistic forecasting, applied for predicting the probability and duration of negative inflation. The essence of this approach is in counting runs simulated from a multivariate distribution representing the probabilistic forecasts, which enters the negative inflation regime. The marginal distributions of forecasts are estimated using the series of past forecast errors, and the joint distribution is obtained by a multivariate copula approach. This technique is applied for estimating the probability of negative inflation in China and its expected duration, with the marginal distributions computed by fitting weighted skew‐normal and two‐piece normal distributions to autoregressive moving average ex post forecast errors and using the multivariate Student t copula. 相似文献
16.
We analyse the nonlinear behaviour of the information content in the spread for future real economic activity. The spread linearly predicts one‐year‐ahead real growth in nine industrial production sectors of the USA and four of the UK over the last 40 years. However, recent investigations on the spread–real activity relation have questioned both its linear nature and its time‐invariant framework. Our in‐sample empirical evidence suggests that the spread–real activity relationship exhibits asymmetries that allow for different predictive power of the spread when past spread values were above or below some threshold value. We then measure the out‐of‐sample forecast performance of the nonlinear model using predictive accuracy tests. The results show that significant improvement in forecasting accuracy, at least for one‐step‐ahead forecasts, can be obtained over the linear model. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
17.
Barry R. Weller 《Journal of forecasting》1990,9(3):273-281
The purpose of this paper is to investigate the applicability of a contemporary time series forecasting technique, transfer function modeling, to the problem of forecasting sectoral employment levels in small regional economies. The specific sectoral employment levels to be forecast are manufacturing, durable manufacturing, non-durable manufacturing and non-manufacturing employment. Due to data constraints at the small region level, construction of traditional causal econometric models is often very difficult; thus time series approaches become particularly attractive. The results suggest that transfer function models using readily available national indicator series as drivers can provide more accurate forecasts of small region sectoral employment levels than univariate time series models. 相似文献
18.
Revealing the underlying preferences of a forecaster has always been at the core of much controversy. Herein, we build on the multivariate loss function concept and propose a flexible and multivariate family of likelihoods. This allows examining whether a vector of forecast errors, along with control variables, shapes a forecaster's preferences and, therefore, the underlying multivariate, nonseparable, loss function. We estimate the likelihood function using Bayesian exponentially tilted empirical likelihood, which reveals the shape of the parameter and the power of the multivariate loss function. In the empirical section, the reported evidence reveals that the EU Commission forecasts are predominantly asymmetric, leaning towards optimism in the year ahead, while a correction towards pessimism occurs in the current year forecast. There is some variability of this asymmetry across member states, with forecasts, i.e. gross domestic product growth, for large Member States exhibiting more optimism 相似文献
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20.
Marcos Bujosa Antonio García-Ferrer Aránzazu de Juan Antonio Martín-Arroyo 《Journal of forecasting》2020,39(1):1-17
We present a composite coincident indicator designed to capture the state of the Spanish economy. Our approach, based on smooth trends, guarantees that the resulting indicators are reasonably smooth and issue stable signals, reducing the uncertainty. The coincident indicator has been checked by comparing it with the one recently proposed by the Spanish Economic Association index. Both indexes show similar behavior and ours captures very well the beginning and end of the official recessions and expansion periods. Our coincident indicator also tracks very well alternative mass media indicators typically used in the political science literature. We also update our composite leading indicator (Bujosa et al., Journal of Forecasting, 2013, 32(6), 481–499). It systematically predicts the peaks and troughs of the new Spanish Economic Association index and provides significant aid in forecasting annual gross domestic product growth rates. Using only real data available at the beginning of each forecast period, our indicator one-step-ahead forecast shows improvements over other individual alternatives and different forecast combinations. 相似文献