PERSPECTIVES ON URBAN WATER INFRASTRUCTURE IN CHINA FOR THE 21~(ST) CENTURY: SDMUWEIC MODEL

Based on system dynamics approach, SDMUWEIC model is developed in order to evaluate future dynamics of urban water infrastructure development in China. Firstly, this paper presents the basic structure and characteristics of the model, focusing on water infrastructure's dynamic relationships with population increase, economic development, water resources shortage and water conservation practices. Secondly, model veracity and robustness tests based on behavior reproduction and uncertainty analyses are illustrated. Thirdly, based on the model, future patterns of China's urban water infrastructure investment requirements are simulated, and effectiveness of two different policy scenarios are evaluated. Finally, conclusions and policy implications are drawn, allowing insights into China's sustainable water infrastructure policies and managements.     

THE RATE OF RETURN ON CAPITAL FOR PENSION SYSTEM IN CHINA

1. Introduction As far as the foundation of pension is concerned, China is far from maturity. As matter of fact, the imbalance between income and expenditure on pension has been aggravating over past several years. As statistics shows, there were 5 cities suffering from the imbalance between income and expenditure in 1997, but the number skyrocketed to 21 in 1998, and 25 in 1999 (Ministry of Labor and Social Security, PRC. 2001). Contribution rate for pension in China went up rapidly from …     

ADVANCES IN DECISION ANALYSIS AND SYSTEMS ENGINEERING FOR MANAGING LARGE-SCALE ENTERPRISES IN A VOLATILE WORLD： INTEGRATING BENEFITS, OPPORTUNITIES, COSTS AND RISKS （BOCR） WITH THE BUSINESS MOTIVATION MODEL （BMM）

1. Introduction Recent advances in Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) have occurred in a number of areas includinginformation quality (Chutimaskul and Wangpipatwong 2004), strategy (Sha, Hung and Lin 2004) organization (Crowne 2004), technological change (Mitchell 2004), and utility1. Introduction Recent advances in Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) have occurred in a number of areas includinginformation quality (Chutimaskul and Wangpipatwong 2004), strateg…     

基于SD模型的水生态承载力模拟优化与例证

提出了系统动力学和投影寻踪法的水生态承载力模拟和优选方法,以常州市为例进行实证研究. 采用情景分析法,从节水和污染控制方面,设计了零方案,节水方案,污染控制低方案,污染控制中方案和污染控制高方案等5个情景方案. 通过Vensim DSS软件建立SD （system dynamics）模型和模拟仿真平台,模拟了2020年常州市水生态承载力,得到5种情景方案的模拟结果. 采用遗传投影寻踪法,对5种情景方案进行优选,推荐方案为污染控制高方案,在该方案下,2020年常州市可承载的人口数量为481万人,GDP总量可达到6094亿元,相应的水资源开发利用率为48.8%,最大水环境容量利用率为100%,要达到以上水生态承载力目标,必须提高水资源利用效率,降低重点污染行业增长速度,增加污水治理投资金额,提高污水处理率等. 研究结果为评估水生态承载力提供了理论依据,为研究区水生态环境保护和经济社会发展提供了决策参考.     

中部农村规模养殖生态系统管理策略的系统动力学仿真分析

农村规模养殖生态系统是一个由养殖业、种植业、能源、环境和管理构成的复杂系统,对养殖废弃物的有效管理是该系统安全与可持续发展的保障.以地处中国中部的江西省萍乡地区兰坡村规模养殖生态系统为例,基于系统动力学反馈仿真分析理论,运用相应的主导基模,分别对2002~2015年系统实施沼气能源利用、沼液与灌溉水分流、冬闲田与旱地沼液蔬菜种植三项策略工程后的系统状况进行情景仿真,定量论证实施三项策略工程的必要性及其产生的经济、生态效益.模拟结果同时揭示出系统内土地等自然资源的有限,导致以循环利用为前提的养殖废弃物污染治理能力有限,因此建议农村规模养殖控制适度的发展规模.三项策略工程已付诸实施,对系统内规模养殖二次污染的治理已见成效.     

PART 2: Critical Systemic Praxis to Address Fixed and Fluid Identity and Politics<Superscript>1</Superscript> at the Local,National and International Level

This paper argues for a model of systemic governance that can take account of diverse identities and political positions (Deleuze and Guattari in Bogue, 1989). Participatory Action Research can assist in working with diverse viewpoints when managing and making policy decisions across many organizations locally, nationally and internationally. Understanding the point of view of ‘the other’ and the recursive nature of identity and politics is the first step towards sustainable governance. Enabling multiple viewpoints to be heard is both an idealistic and sustainable end and a means to manage risk. Accountability needs to ‘sweep in’ and ‘unfold’ (Churchman, 1979a,b, 1982) social, cultural, economic and environmental factors (adapting Elkington, 1997, drawing on Banathy, 1996, 2000; Laszlo, 1991; Laszlo, and Laszlo, 2004). Participatory governance needs to address questions about fixed and fluid politics and identity. These questions address cultural norms, bonds and boundaries (Elias and Lichterman, 2003) to guide reflection on cases that strive to achieve accountability. Experiential learning through participatory action research with the most marginalised in society and listening to significant others (whose systemic praxis) is the basis for the theory on systemic governance.¹Paper is drawn from forthcoming book entitled: “Systemic Governance: Working and re-working the conceptual and geographical boundaries of governance and international relations” (2005) and parts of the paper were presented at the 49th Annual Conference of the International Systems Sciences Asilomar 2004. A more detailed version of the case study on the hijab has been submitted for consideration as a publication on human rights and governance to Systems Research and Behavioural Science October 2004. References to Churchman’s work have also been made in Critical Systemic Praxis for Social and Environmental Justice (2003)Kluwer.     

强化学习在基于多主体模型决策支持系统中的应用 ——以湖泊水环境决策支持系统为例

利用研究复杂系统和多主体(multi-agent)建模的相关知识与方法, 将湖泊水环境中的各种实体, 如政府、排污企业以及各种水生生物等抽象为具有一定智能的主体, 建立湖泊水环境智能决策支持系统. 并将强化学习方法应用到智能决策支持系统中, 实现湖泊水污染的智能预测与预警. 最后, 以太湖流域为应用背景, 进行了初步的仿真实验, 实验结果验证了该方法的有效性.     

基于SD方法的水资源有偿使用制度生态经济效应仿真研究——以浙江省为例

文章引入SD方法,以水资源有偿使用制度为例,构建了水资源制度的生态经济效应仿真模型.模型分为五大子系统:人口子系统、经济子系统、水资源自然子系统、水生态环境子系统、水资源制度子系统,包括60多个变量和30多个系统方程.以浙江省2009年为启动年份,模拟了2009到2013的结果,进行了模型验证,然后设置了现状方案及水资源有偿使用三种方案,进行了水资源有偿使用制度仿真模拟研究;结果发现生活用水量、工业用水量、污水排放量、工业万元GDP用水量、工业单方水产出等生态经济效应指标都随着方案的不同有所变化,农村和农业征收水资源费将会推进农村生活用水减少和农业节水,第三产业和工业增加水资源费将会提高水资源经济效应,同时在相同产值情况下会减少污水排放量.     

基于城市金融竞争力评价的我国多层次金融中心体系

为了对我国的多层级金融中心体系进行研究, 论文设计了一套系统的评价方法. 在评价过程中, 首先建立了评价各城市金融竞争力的指标体系, 接着采用熵权法、灰色关联分析法、主成分分析法等对我国21个大中城市的金融竞争力进行了评价, 再运用Kendall协同系数检验法对三种方法评价结果的一致性进行了检验并进行组合评价, 给出了各城市金融竞争力的排名, 最后还运用K-均值聚类分析法将21个城市划分了层级. 根据评价的结果以及区域经济发展的特点和各城市的优势和差异, 对我国多层次金融中心体系格局的构建给出了政策建议.     

Reflection-in-and-on-Action in Participatory Action Research: Toward Assessment <Emphasis Type=Italic>for </Emphasis>Learning

This article is about the use of oral assessment for learning and was based on a reflection-in-and-on-action approach within a participatory action research framework. The purpose of this paper was to argue for the incorporation of oral assessment in tertiary science as a fair, reliable and valid approach to assessment. This study found that the interactive nature of the oral assessments led to improved learning of content for learners from their peers and assessors. Assessors too learnt about their students as individuals, their study habits and critiqued their teaching from the oral assessments. They also learned from their co-assessors. Valuable lessons were learned for collaborative team teaching and assessing for the benefit of assessors and learners alike. This study also found that action research afforded the assessors a new way of doing things empowering them to conduct research in their own classrooms, with their colleagues and their learners.     

我国航空客运量需求预测模型:基于随机前沿预测模型和模型平均

针对多数研究以产品或服务的历史消费量来代替不可观测的需求量而导致的需求预测出现实质性偏差的问题，本文将包含技术无效率项的随机前沿预测模型应用于航空客运量需求的预测，从而有效解决实质性偏差的问题.同时我们在此基础上引入一种模型平均权重确定方法，即通过最小化M折交叉验证准则（CV_M）确定候选模型权重.本文证明了该方法在理论上的最优性.由于模型中技术无效项的存在，我们可以同时预测航空客运量的实际产生量和需求量，实证研究也表明，相比其他常用的预测方法，该方法在预测航空客运量中长期的实际产生量上更具优势.     

气候变化下适应性治理的学习模式研究——以哈密地区水权转让为例

适应性治理是应对社会生态系统复杂性和不确定性的新途径. 它从“学习”能力的角度考察个体行为决策特征和治理路径. 本文基于Experience Weighted Attraction (EWA) 理论和系统动力学分析影响人类行动选择和决策的因素,并融合社会学习和行为博弈理论设计水资源适应性治理下多回路、多层面的EWA演化学习模式,以应对气候变化等不确定性因素的影响. 同时结合哈密地区水权转让实例,通过仿真分析模拟适应性治理下行动主体(工业和农业)在水权转让中的行动选择规律,发掘促进主体行动概率改善的影响因素,形成水资源适应性治理的学习规则,并在学习规则指导下进行的适应性的政策调整,更好地促进水权转让实现和持续.