Short‐term forecasting of industrial electricity consumption in Brazil

This paper presents short‐term forecasting methods applied to electricity consumption in Brazil. The focus is on comparing the results obtained after using two distinct approaches: dynamic non‐linear models and econometric models. The first method, that we propose, is based on structural statistical models for multiple time series analysis and forecasting. It involves non‐observable components of locally linear trends for each individual series and a shared multiplicative seasonal component described by dynamic harmonics. The second method, adopted by the electricity power utilities in Brazil, consists of extrapolation of the past data and is based on statistical relations of simple or multiple regression type. To illustrate the proposed methodology, a numerical application is considered with real data. The data represents the monthly industrial electricity consumption in Brazil from the three main power utilities: Eletropaulo, Cemig and Light, situated at the major energy‐consuming states, Sao Paulo, Rio de Janeiro and Minas Gerais, respectively, in the Brazilian Southeast region. The chosen time period, January 1990 to September 1994, corresponds to an economically unstable period just before the beginning of the Brazilian Privatization Program. Implementation of the algorithms considered in this work was made via the statistical software S‐PLUS. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Simultaneous equation estimates of electricity demand for the rural south: Revenue projection when prices are administered

Presented are estimates of demand equations and producer revenue projections for rural farm electricity consumers in the USA. Statistical tests include a Box-Cox comparison of functional form, a Koyck-distributed lag, and a contrast of average versus marginal prices. Producer revenue projections take account of the estimated demand equation and non-continuous rate schedules for each of the electricity distributors. Multiple price equilibria result from differences in administered price schedules between sellers. The ‘effective’ price elasticity based upon forecasts which take account of the market circumstances is lower than the simple demand point elasticity but higher than found in some previous studies.     

The effects of thermogenic agents on hindlimb oxygen consumption in the dog: ICI D7114 and noradrenaline

The thermogenic action of beta-adrenoceptor agonists may be due, in part, to increased metabolism in skeletal muscle. Previous results suggest that vasoconstriction is also necessary, and that the effect can be blocked by vasodilators. Both noradrenaline and the beta-3 agonist, ICI D7114, were studied using two dog hindlimb protocols. During constant perfusion conditions, ICI D7114 caused a significant increase in hindlimb oxygen consumption although it is a vasodilator. Noradrenaline resulted in a smaller rise in oxygen consumption, and produced a marked vasoconstriction. Both noradrenaline and ICI D7114 resulted in decreased oxygen consumption when the blood flow was allowed to vary in response to the drug treatment. The results suggest that changes in tissue oxygen consumption caused by beta-agonists are not related to vasomotion.     

Bilateral lesions of suprachiasmatic nucleus eliminate circadian rhythms of oxygen consumption and the respiratory quotient in rats

Summary Bilateral lesions of the suprachiasmatic nucleus of the hypothalamus of rats abolished circadian rhythms of oxygen consumption and of the respiratory quotient (RQ). The RQ remained constant at a level intermediate between the maximum (about 1.0) and minimum (about 0.9) values in control animals.     

Oxygen consumption and the evolution of order: negentropy criteria applied to the evolution of ants

Optimization of energy use by evolving organisms, predicted by theoretical extensions of the neo-Darwinian theory, i. contrasted with that of irreversible thermodynamics, which predicts an increase in orderliness and thus an increase in energy consumption per unit of biomass. We compared this index with estimates of social complexity among ant genera and species. Our results show that simple optimization models cannot explain experimental data, and that social complexity correlates differently with negentropy at different levels of analysis. Comparing the genera among Formicidae, workers (not colonies) from genera with highly social species are less negentropic than those of socially primitive ones. At the sub-generic level, social complexity correlated positively with negentropy among species, for major workers inAcromyrmex and for minor workers inAtta. The results illustrate the complexity of thermodynamic criteria in the study of evolution but also hint at their usefulness. In this case, they show that two different evolutionary routes to the complex Attini ant societies may exist.     

Central effects of 5-hydroxytryptamine and noradrenaline on body temperature and oxygen consumption in infant rats

Zusammenfassung Injektionen von 5-Hydroxytryptamin und Noradrenalin in die Gehirnventrikel junger Ratten verursachen einen verminderten Sauerstoffverbrauch und eine Hypothermie bereits am ersten Tag nach der Geburt Effekte, die mit dem Alter verstärkt, auftreten.     

Oxygen consumption and biosynthetic function in perfused liver from rats at different stages of development

Changes in mitochondrial function were studied in perfused liver from rats aged 24 – 365 days. Oxygen consumption together with the rates of gluconeogenesis, urea synthesis and ketogenesis were determined. Basal mitochondrial respiration as well as the ability of the liver to synthesize glucose, urea and ketone bodies declined from 24- to 365-day-old rats. On the other hand, on transition from 24 to 60 days the liver oxidation rate of hexanoate, sorbitol and glycerol is enhanced, but not of ketone bodies or palmitate. Our results show that the transition from weaning to middle age is accompanied by defined changes in hepatic substrate oxidation. From the observed time course of the decrease in basal and substrate-stimulated oxygen consumption, it is concluded that in rat liver cells a decline in respiratory chain function, long-chain fatty acid and ketone body metabolism, gluconeogenesis and ureogenesis occurs at a relatively early life stage. Received 19 June 1998; received after revision 11 September 1998; accepted 11 September 1998     

Cycles of juvenile hormone esterase activity during the juvenile hormone-driven cycles of oxygen consumption in pupal diapause of flesh flies

Summary During diapause O₂ consumption in fly pupae is a cyclic event (4-day periodicity at 25°C) driven by cycles of juvenile hormone activity. Levels of juvenile hormone esterase activity change systematically during the cycle, with highest activity observed at the nadir of the O₂ consumption cycle.Supported in part by grant 88-37153-3473 from the USDA Competitive Grants Office and grant 23-088 from the USDA Forest Service. Thanks to Dr Ming Tu Chang for her helpful advice.     

The effect of ouabain on water consumption in the rat

Résumé L'ouabain diminue la consommation d'eau, stimulée par l'injection d'une solution sallée hypertonique, chez les rats normaux ou néphrectomisés.     

Effect of consumption of green and black tea on the level of various enzymes in rats

Summary Drinking of both green and black tea as the only liquid ingested resulted in significant decreases in the activity of transketolase in whole blood of rats both before and after the in vitro addition, of thiamin diphosphate. Liver transketolase activity was decreased only by green tea. Mucosal transketolase activity was not affected by either type of tea. The activity of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) was not affected by either type of tea, while whole blood LDH was decreased by both green and black tea. Neither tea had any affect on mucosal alkaline phosphatase, but thiamin diphosphatase activity was decreased by both teas. An increase in liver total thiamin resulted from the drinking of both types of tea.     

Effect of consumption of green and black tea on the level of various enzymes in rats

Drinking of both green and black tea as the only liquid ingested resulted in significant decreases in the activity of transketolase in whole blood of rats both before and after the in vitro addition of thiamin diphosphate. Liver transketolase activity was decreased only by green tea. Mucosal transketolase activity was not affected by either type of tea. The activity of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) was not affected by either type of tea, while whole blood LDH was decreased by both green and black tea. Neither tea had any affect on mucosal alkaline phosphatase, but thiamin diphosphatase activity was decreased by both teas. An increase in liver total thiamin resulted from the drinking of both types of tea.     

Modelling the daily banknotes in circulation in the context of the liquidity management of the European Central Bank

The main focus of this paper is to model the daily series of banknotes in circulation. The series of banknotes in circulation displays very marked seasonal patterns. To the best of our knowledge the empirical performance of two competing approaches to model seasonality in daily time series, namely the ARIMA‐based approach and the Structural Time Series approach, has never been put to the test. The application presented in this paper provides valid intuition on the merits of each approach. The forecasting performance of the models is also assessed in the context of their impact on the liquidity management of the Eurosystem. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effect of temperature and light on the production of androgens in the maleRana esculenta

Summary The present data show that experimentally-controlled environmental variables (light and temperature) can alter circulating androgen levels in the male green frog,Rana esculenta, treated in different phases of the testicular cycle.Work done under the C.N.R.-financed project Biologia della Riproduzione     

燃煤发电与水泥生产联产技术可行性研究

本文基于解决我国以燃煤发电为主的电力工业的粉煤灰与SO2等酸性气体排放等难题的目的，从优化能源利用和洁净煤技术的角度出发，提出了燃煤发电与水泥生产联产技术。从原料代替、水泥煅烧工艺与掺杂热效应等方面和一系列实验证明了该联产技术的可行性，并就其前景作了分析。燃煤发电和水泥生产的合二为一，将会在我国的能源节约、环境保护与社会经济效益等方面产生深远而重大的意义，有效促进我国电力工业和水泥工业可持续发展。     

Changes in the topographical distribution of glycogen in the brain ofIguana iguana in dependence on the environmental temperature

Zusammenfassung Es wird über experimentelle Untersuchungen der topographischen Verteilung von Glykogen im Gehirn vonIguana iguana in Abhängigkeit von der Umgebungstemperatur berichtet.     

Effects of alpha- and beta-adrenergic blockers on the actions of noradrenaline on body temperature in the newborn guinea-pig

Summary The effect of NA injected into the lateral cerebral ventricle on T_c was blocked by alpha-adrenergic receptor blockers, but not by beta-receptor blockers, whereas the effect of systemically administered NA was blocked by i.p. administered beta-receptor blockers, but not by alpha-blockers.Acknowledgments. The author is indebted to Ciba-Geigy Ltd for generous gift of phentolamine, and to Imperial Chemical Industries Ltd, for supplying propranolol and practolol.     

The influence of incubation temperature on the rate of human lymphocyte proliferation in vitro

Summary Using the FPG staining technique we have confirmed that incubation temperature has a marked effect on the proliferation rate of cultured lymphocytes. With 48 h-cultures the proportion of 2nd-cycle cells increases linearly over the temperature range 36–39°C. However the absolute size of the increase exhibits interdonor variability.We would like to acknowledge the assistance of the Commission of the European Communities for their provision of a travel grant.     

Experimental study on the mechanical properties of rocks at high temperature

The mechanical properties of marble,limestone,and sandstone as well as the stress-strain curve,the varying characteristics of the peak strength,the peak strain and elastic modulus were studied by using the MTS810 Rock Mechanics Servo-controlled Testing System under the action of temperatures ranging from room temperature to 800℃.Results show that (1) the peak strength and elastic modulus of marble fluctuate at the temperature from normal to 400℃ ;and they decrease gradually over 400 ℃.(2) With the rise of t...