Model instability in predictive exchange rate regressions

In this paper we aim to improve existing empirical exchange rate models by accounting for uncertainty with respect to the underlying structural representation. Within a flexible Bayesian framework, our modeling approach assumes that different regimes are characterized by commonly used structural exchange rate models, with transitions across regimes being driven by a Markov process. We assume a time-varying transition probability matrix with transition probabilities depending on a measure of the monetary policy stance of the central bank at home and in the USA. We apply this model to a set of eight exchange rates against the US dollar. In a forecasting exercise, we show that model evidence varies over time, and a model approach that takes this empirical evidence seriously yields more accurate density forecasts for most currency pairs considered.     

Colitis-associated neoplasia: molecular basis and clinical translation

Crohn’s disease and ulcerative colitis are both associated with an increased risk of inflammation-associated colorectal carcinoma. Colitis-associated cancer (CAC) is one of the most important causes for morbidity and mortality in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD). Colitis-associated neoplasia distinctly differs from sporadic colorectal cancer in its biology and the underlying mechanisms. This review discusses the molecular mechanisms of CAC and summarizes the most important genetic alterations and signaling pathways involved in inflammatory carcinogenesis. Then, clinical translation is evaluated by discussing new endoscopic techniques and their contribution to surveillance and early detection of CAC. Last, we briefly address different types of concepts for prevention (i.e., anti-inflammatory therapeutics) and treatment (i.e., surgical intervention) of CAC and give an outlook on this important aspect of IBD.     

Microsatellite instability in gastric cancer: molecular bases,clinical perspectives,and new treatment approaches

Gastric cancer is one of the most aggressive malignancies, with limited treatment options in both locally advanced and metastatic setting, resulting in poor prognosis. Based on genomic characterization, stomach tumour has recently been described as a heterogeneous disease composed by different subtypes, each of them with peculiar molecular aspects and specific clinical behaviour. With an incidence of 22% among all western gastric tumour cases, stomach cancer with microsatellite instability was identified as one of these subgroups. Retrospective studies and limited prospective trials reported differences between gastric cancers with microsatellite stability and those with instability, mainly concerning clinical and pathological features, but also in regard to immunological microenvironment, correlation with prognostic value, and responses to treatment. In particular, gastric cancer with microsatellite instability constitutes a small but relevant subgroup associated with older age, female sex, distal stomach location, and lower number of lymph-node metastases. Emerging data attribute to microsatellite instability status a favourable prognostic meaning, whereas the poor outcomes reported after perioperative chemotherapy administration suggest a detrimental role of cytotoxic drugs in this gastric cancer subgroup. The strong immunogenicity and the widespread expression of immune-checkpoint ligands make microsatellite instability subtype more vulnerable to immunotherapeutic approach, e.g., with anti-PD-L1 and anti-CTLA4 antibodies. Since gastric cancer with microsatellite instability shows specific features and clinical behaviour not overlapping with microsatellite stable disease, microsatellite instability test might be suitable for inclusion in a diagnostic setting for all tumour stages to guarantee the most targeted and effective treatment to every patient.     

Stem cell transplantation for amyotrophic lateral sclerosis: therapeutic potential and perspectives on clinical translation

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurological disease characterized by degeneration of upper and lower motor neurons. There are currently no clinically impactful treatments for this disorder. Death occurs 3–5 years after diagnosis, usually due to respiratory failure. ALS pathogenesis seems to involve several pathological mechanisms (i.e., oxidative stress, inflammation, and loss of the glial neurotrophic support, glutamate toxicity) with different contributions from environmental and genetic factors. This multifaceted combination highlights the concept that an effective therapeutic approach should counteract simultaneously different aspects: stem cell therapies are able to maintain or rescue motor neuron function and modulate toxicity in the central nervous system (CNS) at the same time, eventually representing the most comprehensive therapeutic approach for ALS. To achieve an effective cell-mediated therapy suitable for clinical applications, several issues must be addressed, including the identification of the most performing cell source, a feasible administration protocol, and the definition of therapeutic mechanisms. The method of cell delivery represents a major issue in developing cell-mediated approaches since the cells, to be effective, need to be spread across the CNS, targeting both lower and upper motor neurons. On the other hand, there is the need to define a strategy that could provide a whole distribution without being too invasive or burdened by side effects. Here, we review the recent advances regarding the therapeutic potential of stem cells for ALS with a focus on the minimally invasive strategies that could facilitate an extensive translation to their clinical application.     

Chromosome instability and deregulated proliferation: an unavoidable duo

The concept that aneuploidy is a characteristic of malignant cells has long been known; however, the idea that aneuploidy is an active contributor to tumorigenesis, as opposed to being an associated phenotype, is more recent in its evolution. At the same time, we are seeing the emergence of novel roles for tumor suppressor genes and oncogenes in genome stability. These include the adenomatous polyposis coli gene (APC), p53, the retinoblastoma susceptibility gene (RB1), and Ras. Originally, many of these genes were thought to be tumor suppressive or oncogenic solely because of their role in proliferative control. Because of the frequency with which they are disrupted in cancer, chromosome instability caused by their dysfunction may be more central to tumorigenesis than previously thought. Therefore, this review will highlight how the proper function of cell cycle regulatory genes contributes to the maintenance of genome stability, and how their mutation in cancer obligatorily connects proliferation and chromosome instability.     

Knowledge translation: airway epithelial cell migration and respiratory diseases

Airway epithelial cell migration is essential for lung development and growth, as well as the maintenance of respiratory tissue integrity. This vital cellular process is also important for the repair and regeneration of damaged airway epithelium. More importantly, several lung diseases characterized by aberrant tissue remodeling result from the improper repair of damaged respiratory tissue. Epithelial cell migration relies upon extracellular matrix molecules and is further regulated by numerous local, neuronal, and hormonal factors. Under inflammatory conditions, cell migration can also be stimulated by certain cytokines and chemokines. Many well-known environmental factors involved in the pathogenesis of chronic lung diseases (e.g., cigarette smoking, air pollution, alcohol intake, inflammation, viral and bacterial infections) can inhibit airway epithelial cell migration. Further investigation of cellular and molecular mechanisms of cell migration with advanced techniques may provide knowledge that is relevant to physiological and pathological conditions. These studies may eventually lead to the development of therapeutic interventions to improve lung repair and regeneration and to prevent aberrant remodeling in the lung.     

The Dostoevsky Machine in Georgetown: scientific translation in the Cold War

SUMMARY

Machine Translation (MT) is now ubiquitous in discussions of translation. The roots of this phenomenon — first publicly unveiled in the so-called ‘Georgetown-IBM Experiment’ on 9 January 1954 — displayed not only the technological utopianism still associated with dreams of a universal computer translator, but was deeply enmeshed in the political pressures of the Cold War and a dominating conception of scientific writing as both the goal of machine translation as well as its method. Machine translation was created, in part, as a solution to a perceived crisis sparked by the massive expansion of Soviet science. Scientific prose was also perceived as linguistically simpler, and so served as the model for how to turn a language into a series of algorithms. This paper follows the rise of the Georgetown program — the largest single program in the world — from 1954 to the (as it turns out, temporary) collapse of MT in 1964.     

Genomic sources of regulatory variation in cis and in trans

Regulatory variation results from genetic changes with both cis and trans acting effects on gene expression. Here I describe the types of genetic variants that alter cis and trans regulation and discuss differences in the potential for cis and trans changes among different classes of genes. I argue that the molecular function of the protein encoded by each gene and how the gene is wired into the genomic regulatory network may influence its propensity for cis and trans regulatory changes.Received 15 February 2005; received after revision 12 April 2005; accepted 26 April 2005     

Prediction in context: On the comparative epistemic merit of predictive success

The considerations set out in the paper are intended to suggest that in practical contexts predictive power does not play the outstanding roles sometimes accredited to it in an epistemic framework. Rather, predictive power is part of a network of other merits and achievements. Predictive power needs to be judged differently according to the specific conditions that apply. First, predictions need to be part of an explanatory framework if they are supposed to guide actions reliably. Second, in scientific expertise, the demand for accurate predictions is replaced with the objective of specifying a robust corridor of estimates. Finally, it is highly uncertain to predict the success of research projects. The overall purpose of the paper is to enlarge the debate about predictions by addressing specifically the roles of predictions in application-oriented research.     

Quarterly GPPA earnings data: Time-series properties and predictive ability results in the airlines industry

This paper provides preliminary results regarding the impact of general purchasing power adjustments (GPPA) on quarterly earnings for 24 firms from the airlines industry. Findings indicated that GPPA transformations do not substantially alter the time-series properties of quarterly earnings data. Two Box-Jenkins models, (100) × (100) and (100) × (110) were identified as possible parsimonious models for the airlines industry. It is recommended that these structures be considered as viable candidates for earnings expectations models in market studies testing for informational content of GPPA earnings. The predictive findings demonstrated that predictions of historical cost quarterly earnings were significantly more accurate than GPPA predictions for four of the five horizons tested.     

CHFR: a key checkpoint component implicated in a wide range of cancers

CHFR (Checkpoint with Forkhead-associated and RING finger domains) has been implicated in a checkpoint regulating entry into mitosis. However, the details underlying its roles and regulation are unclear due to conflicting lines of evidence supporting different notions of its functions. We provide here an overview of how CHFR is thought to contribute towards regulating mitotic entry and present possible explanations for contradictory observations published on the functions and regulation of CHFR. Furthermore, we survey key data showing correlations between promoter hypermethylation or down-regulation of CHFR and cancers, with a view on the likely reasons why different extents of correlations have been reported. Lastly, we explore the possibilities of exploiting CHFR promoter hypermethylation status in diagnostics and therapeutics for cancer patients. With keen interest currently focused on the association between hypermethylation of CHFR and cancers, details of how CHFR functions require further study to reveal how its absence might possibly contribute to tumorigenesis.     

Genomic revelations of a mutualism: the pea aphid and its obligate bacterial symbiont

The symbiosis of the pea aphid Acyrthosphion pisum with the bacterium Buchnera aphidicola APS represents the best-studied insect obligate symbiosis. Here we present a refined picture of this symbiosis by linking pre-genomic observations to new genomic data that includes the complete genomes of the eukaryotic and prokaryotic symbiotic partners. In doing so, we address four issues central to understanding the patterns and processes operating at the A. pisum/Buchnera APS interface. These four issues include: (1) lateral gene transfer, (2) host immunity, (3) symbiotic metabolism, and (4) regulation.