Response of monsoon variability in Himalayas to global warming

Reconstructed annual net accumulation from the Dasuopu ice core recovered in Himalayas, with a good correlation to Indian monsoon, reflects a major precipitation trend in central Himalayas. The Dasuopu accumulation (DSP An) also shows a strong correlation to the Northern Hemispheric temperature. Generally, as the Northern Hemispheric temperature increases by 0.1 K, the accumulation decreases by about 90 mm and vise versa. Under the condition of global warming, especially since 1920, the Northern Hemispheric mean temperature has increased by about 0.5 K, whereas accumulation in Dasuopu ice core has decreased by about 450 mm. According to the relationship between accumulation and temperature, a scenario prediction of monsoon rainfall in central Himalayas is made.     

Events of abrupt change of Indian monsoon recorded in Dasuopu ice core from Himalayas

Three ice cores distributed across Dasuopu glacier in Himalayas were recovered. A 400-year net annual accumulation record reconstructed from one of the cores reflects the major precipitation trend in the central Himalayas. This record is related closely to the Indian monsoon precipitation. Wavelet and moving T-test were applied to the 400-year-long Dasuopu accumulation record, and significant staggered variability and abrupt change of the record on interannual to centennial time scales are identified. Finally the possible reason for abrupt change of the accumulation record is discussed.     

Precipitation variability in central Himalayas and its relation to Northern Hemisphere temperature

Agriculture, industry and hydroelectric power in south Asia are heavily dependent on the performance of the summer (June to September) monsoon rainfall, which provides 75—90% of the annual rainwater over most parts of the area. A weak monsoon year generally corresponds to low crop yields. And strong monsoon usually produces abundant crops, although too much rainfall may produce devastating floods. However, modeling efforts to forecast the monsoon have met with only moderate success[1]. Prev…     

Recent change of the ice core accumulation rates on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Three ice cores recovered from the Himalayas (i.e. the East Rongbuk Glacier and the Far East Rongbuk Glacier at Mt. Qomolangma (Everest), and the Dasuopu Glacier at Xixiabangma) show a sharp decline in the accumulation rates since the 1950s, which is consistent with the precipitation fluctuation over India and the low northern latitude zone (5°-35°N). Correspondingly, an increasing trend is observed for the ice core accumulations from the central and northern Qingh ai-Tibetan Plateau (i.e. the Xiao Dongkemadi Glacier in the central Tanggula Mountains, the Guliya Ice Cap in the western Kunlun Mountains, and the Dunde Ice Cap in the Qilian Mountains) since the 1950s, which is consistent with the precipi tation fluctuation over the middle-high northern latitude zone (35°-70°N). However, the variation magnitude of the high-elevation ice core accumulations is more significant than that of precipitation at the low-eleva- tion places, suggesti ng its extra sensitivity of high-elevation areas to climatic change. The inter-d ecadal abrupt change of the African-Asian summer monsoon in the1960s may attribute to the recent ice core accumulation change during the recent decades.     

Increasing atmospheric pollution revealed by Pb record of a 7 000-m ice core

Concentrations of Pb in Dasuopu ice core in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau have been directly measured by ICP-MS at pg/g level. The Pb profile shows a very significant increase in modern times due to anthropogenic input. The use of leaded gasoline in the South Asian countries may be a main source of Pb in this region. The input of Pb to the Dasuopu Glacier is mainly supplied by Indian summer monsoon moisture which traverses the pass at the head of the Dasuopu Glacier.     

A new type of ice formation zone found in the Himalayas

Ice formation was studied on the Dasuopu Glacier located in the Mount Xixabangma (28°23′ N, 85°43'E) in the Himalayas. Snow pits and shallow ice cores are analyzed to reveal ice formation process. The results show that the ice formation process, or in other words, the process of densitifica-tion, on the col (7 000 m a.s. I.) of the Dasuopu Glacier is a stable, slow and gradual process. The snow-ice transformation on the glacier is estimated to be 30-40 m below the surface. The temperature on the Dasuopu Glacier is very low (～ - 14℃ at 10 m) and similar to that in polar type ice cap. We, therefore, speculate that the process of snow-ice transformation is undertaken under snow pressure, and that there is a percolation zone on the Dasuopu Glacier. The high altitude of the col and monsoon snow fall accompnied by heavy cloud and high albedo favorite the percolation zone formation.     

Westerly moisture transport to the middle of Himalayas revealed from the high deuterium excess

Previous studies found extremely high d-excess in both ice core and glacial melt water in Dasuopu glacier, Xixiabangma, middle of Himalayas. These values are much higher than the global average and those measured in southwest monsoon precipitation. The d-excess variation in over one year at Nyalam station will clarify this phenomenon. Studies show that the high d-excess is related to the seasonal variation of moisture transport to this region. The d-excess values are low during the southwest monsoon active periods, when moisture originated from the humid ocean surface. The d-excess values are higher in non-monsoon months, when moisture is derived from westerly transport. Winter and spring precipitation accounts for a substantial portion of the annual precipitation, resulting in higher d-excess in the yearly precipitation in the middle of Himalayas than other parts of the southern Tibetan Plateau. This finding reveals that the precipitation in the middle of Himalayas is not purely from southwest monsoon, but a large portion from the westerly transport, which is very important for ice core study in this area.     

Possible solar forcing of climate variability in the past 4000 years inferred from a proxy record at the southern margin of Tarim Basin

A ca. 4000a decadal-resolution climate proxy record of the mean grain-size from a lake (or mash) sediment at the southern margin of the Tarim Basin, correlates visually with the atmospheric 14C record from tree ring (residual △^14C, solar proxy) and the GISP2 ice core δ^18O record (temperature proxy). In general, △^14C maxima (solar minima) are coincident with cold (wet) periods in the study area and cold periods in the Greenland ice core. Power spectrum analysis revealed statistically significant periodicities of 196a, 121a, 97a, 62a, 45a and 33--30a, which are similar to those principal solar-oscillation periods as inferred from the atmospheric radiocarbon and other proxy records. Possible solar forcing is addressed to be the main driving forcing of climate change in the southern margin of Tarim Basin.     

Precipitation variations recorded in Guliya ice core in the past 400 years

Based on the Guliya ice core records, the precipitation in the past 400 years was retrieved. Its rela tions with other regions were also analyzed. The results demonstrated that there were two high-precipitation periods and two low-precipitation periods in Guliya ice core since 1571 AD. The average precipitation in the two high-precipitation periods was 42 mm (21%) higher than that in the two low-precipitation periods. The precipitation recorded in the Guliya ice core was consistent with that in Dunde ice core. The variation trends of precipitation in the Guliya ice core and the northern hemisphere are similar. During the extremely wet years in the northern hemisphere, the precipitation recorded in the Guliya ice core was two times the long-term average. However, the annual precipitation was 38% less than that of the long-term average in extremely dry years.     

Temperature variations in the past 6000 years inferred from δ18O of peat cellulose from Hongyuan, China

Trends of the temperature variations recorded in δ18O in Hongyuan peat cellulose are similar to those recorded in δ 18O of Jinchuan peat cellulose and inδ18O of Dunde ice core. Climate events have been identified to be globallyhomogeneous. Two notable climate transition periods have been detected in the past 6000 years, namely 4000 aBP with climate shifting from cold to warm and 1500aBP with climate shifting from warm to relatively cold. Power spectrum analysiswas performed to investigate the periodical signals in the δ18O time series. Typical periodicities of 1200-1087 a, 752 a, 444 a, 325 a, 213 a, 127-123 a, 88a, 79 a were discovered, indicating an integrated influence on Hongyuan climatefrom solar, monsoon and ocean activities. Solar forcing has been addressed to be the main driving forcing of Hongyuan climate.     

Precipitation variations recorded in Guliya ice core in the past 400 years

Based on the Guliya ice core records, the precipitation in the past 400 years was retrieved. Its rela tions with other regions were also analyzed. The results demonstrated that there were two high-precipitation periods and two low-precipitation periods in Guliya ice core since 1571 AD. The average precipitation in the two high-precipitation periods was 42 mm (21%) higher than that in the two low-precipitation periods. The precipitation recorded in the Guliya ice core was consistent with that in Dunde ice core. The variation trends of precipitation in the Guliya ice core and the northern hemisphere are similar. During the extremely wet years in the northern hemisphere, the precipitation recorded in the Guliya ice core was two times the long-term average. However, the annual precipitation was 38% less than that of the long-term average in extremely dry years.     

Carbonaceous particles in Muztagh Ata ice core,West Kunlun Mountains,China

Carbonaceous particles concentrations of OC and EC are determined using a two-step gas chroma- tography system in Muztagh Ata ice core covering the time period of 1955--2000. Over the period represented by the core, OC and EC concentrations appear to have changed significantly, varied in the range of 17.7--216.7 and 6.5--124.6, and averaged 61.8, 32.9 ng·g^-1, respectively. The average concentration of EC in Muztagh Ata ice core is much lower than that in an Alpine ice core record （100--300 ng·g^-1） during the same period, but it is a factor of 14 in Greenland ice core （2.3 ng·g^-1）, this may induce a strong impact on the snow albedo in the last 46 years in our study area. Observations indicate two periods with obviously high deposition concentrations （1955--1965 and 1974--1989） and two periods with low concentrations （1966--1973 and 1990--1995）, as well as a recent increasing trend. By comparing EC and SO4^2- concentration variations and deciphering OC/EC ratios recorded in the same ice core, we can judge roughly that the carbonaceous particles deposited in Muztagh Ata ice core were attributed to fossil fuel combustion sources.     

Long-term variations of solar activity

Using the Lomb-Scargle periodogram we analyzed two sunspot series: the one over the past 11000 years at the 10-year interval based upon the survey data of 14C concentration in tree-rings, recon- structed by Solanki et al.; and the sunspot number over the past 7000 years, derived from geomagnetic variations by Usoskin et al. We found the periods and quasi-periods in solar activity, such as about 225, 352, 441, 522 and 561 a, and near 1000 and 2000 a. An approach of wavelet transform was applied to check the two sunspot time series, with emphasis on investigating time-varying characteristics in the long-term fluctuations of solar activity. The results show that the lengths and amplitudes of the periods have changed with time, and large variations have taken place during some periods.     

Decadal-centennial-scale change in Asian-Pacific summer thermal contrast and solar activity

To study the temporally varying features of summer thermal contrast between the Asian continent and the adjacent ocean on decadal-centennial time scales and the links between thermal contrast and solar irradiance, we used a time series of the reconstructed Asian-Pacific oscillation index and solar irradiance over the past millennium. The results showed that thermal contrast in the Asian monsoon region has quasi-90-year, 10?C13-year, and 3?C7-year periods. On the centennial time scale, thermal contrast showed three abrupt changes, occurring in 1305?C1315, 1420?C1430, and 1625?C1635. There is a significant positive correlation between thermal contrast and solar irradiance, which is particularly strong at 250-year, 120?C160-year, 60?C70-year, and quasi-15-year periods. The three abrupt changes in thermal contrast corresponded to a significantly weakening or strengthening of solar irradiance, lagging 12?C22 years behind the solar irradiance, which possibly reflects an effect of solar irradiance on the abrupt change in Asian monsoon climate on the centennial time scale. On the decadal time scale, the abrupt change in the thermal contrast was not closely associated with solar irradiance, which implies that solar activity may not be a major factor affecting the decadal abrupt change in Asian-Pacific thermal contrast. Relative to thermal contrast, the decadal abrupt change in Northern Hemispheric annual mean surface temperature is more closely associated with solar activity, while its centennial abrupt change has a weaker relationship with solar activity.     

Lons-term variations of solar activity

Using the Lomb-Scargle periodogram we analyzed two sunspot series： the one over the past 11000 years at the 10-year interval based upon the survey data of ^14C concentration in tree-rings, reconstructed by Solanki et al.; and the sunspot number over the past 7000 years, derived from geomagnetic variations by Usoskin et al. We found the periods and quasi-periods in solar activity, such as about 225, 352, 441,522 and 561 a, and near 1000 and 2000 a. An approach of wavelet transform was applied to check the two sunspot time series, with emphasis on investigating time-varying characteristics in the long-term fluctuations of solar activity. The results show that the lengths and amplitudes of the periods have changed with time, and large variations have taken place during some periods.     

A 780-year record of explosive volcanism from DT263 ice core in east Antarctica

Ice cores recovered from polar ice sheet received and preserved sulfuric acid fallout from explosive volcanic eruptions. DT263 ice core was retrieved from an east Antarctic location. The ice core is dated using a combination of annual layer counting and volcanic time stratigraphic horizon as 780 years (1215-1996 A.D.). The ice core record demonstrates that during the period of approximately 1460-1800 A.D., the accumulation is sharply lower than the levels prior to and after this period. This period coincides with the most recent neoglacial climatic episode, the "Little Ice Age (LIA)", that has been found in numerous Northern Hemisphere proxy and historic records. The non-sea-salt SO42- concentrations indicate seventeen volcanic events in DT263 ice core. Compared with those from previous Antarctic ice cores, significant discrepancies are found between these records in relative volcanic flux of several well-known events. The discrepancies among these records may be explained by the differences in surface topography, accumulation rate, snow drift and distribution which highlight the potential impact of local glaci-ology on ice core volcanic records, analytical techniques used for sulfate measurement, etc. Volcanic eruptions in middle and high southern latitudes affect volcanic records in Antarctic snow more intensively than those in the low latitudes.     

Concentration of nitrate in the Guliya ice core from the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau and the solar activity

The variations of NO\+-\-3 concentration in the Guliya ice core are reconstructed for recent about 1 000 a. Spectrum analysis of NO\+-\-3 indicates significant periodicities in the variations of NO\+-\-3 concentration, which coincide with the periodicities of the solar activity. Therefore, a positive correlation between the variations of NO\+-\-3 concentration and the solar activity is found.     

Late Holocene methane rise caused by orbitally controlled increase in tropical sources

Considerable debate surrounds the source of the apparently 'anomalous' increase of atmospheric methane concentrations since the mid-Holocene (5,000?years ago) compared to previous interglacial periods as recorded in polar ice core records. Proposed mechanisms for the rise in methane concentrations relate either to methane emissions from anthropogenic early rice cultivation or an increase in natural wetland emissions from tropical or boreal sources. Here we show that our climate and wetland simulations of the global methane cycle over the last glacial cycle (the past 130,000?years) recreate the ice core record and capture the late Holocene increase in methane concentrations. Our analyses indicate that the late Holocene increase results from natural changes in the Earth's orbital configuration, with enhanced emissions in the Southern Hemisphere tropics linked to precession-induced modification of seasonal precipitation. Critically, our simulations capture the declining trend in methane concentrations at the end of the last interglacial period (115,000-130,000?years ago) that was used to diagnose the Holocene methane rise as unique. The difference between the two time periods results from differences in the size and rate of regional insolation changes and the lack of glacial inception in the Holocene. Our findings also suggest that no early agricultural sources are required to account for the increase in methane concentrations in the 5,000?years before the industrial era.     

Relationship between calcium and atmospheric dust recorded in Guliya ice core

By the analyses of Guliya ice core on the Tibetan Plateau, it was found that the calcium (Ca^2 ) originated from the terrestrial source is the main cation of soluble aerosol and a good proxy of the atmospheric component and environment in the mountain ice core located in the mid-low latitude arid regions. Evident variation of Ca^2 concentration has been found in the Guliya ice core since the Last lnterglaciation with two relatively strong increase periods and two weak increase periods. These variations are generally related to climatic changes: high Ca^2 concentration periods coincide with cold periods and low Ca^2 concentration periods coincide with warm periods. However, Ca^2 concentration does not always decrease (increase) with climate warming (cooling). The magnitude and phase of Ca^2 concentration does not always match temperature either. The changes of atmospheric circulation, land surface condition and atmospheric humidity might be important factors which influence Ca^2 concentration besides temperature.     

A signature of cosmic-ray increase in AD 774-775 from tree rings in Japan

Increases in (14)C concentrations in tree rings could be attributed to cosmic-ray events, as have increases in (10)Be and nitrate in ice cores. The record of the past 3,000 years in the IntCal09 data set, which is a time series at 5-year intervals describing the (14)C content of trees over a period of approximately 10,000 years, shows three periods during which (14)C increased at a rate greater than 3‰ over 10 years. Two of these periods have been measured at high time resolution, but neither showed increases on a timescale of about 1 year (refs 11 and 12). Here we report (14)C measurements in annual rings of Japanese cedar trees from ad 750 to ad 820 (the remaining period), with 1- and 2-year resolution. We find a rapid increase of about 12‰ in the (14)C content from ad 774 to 775, which is about 20 times larger than the change attributed to ordinary solar modulation. When averaged over 10 years, the data are consistent with the decadal IntCal (14)C data from North American and European trees. We argue that neither a solar flare nor a local supernova is likely to have been responsible.