The Role of Financial Variables in predicting economic activity

Previous research found that the US business cycle leads the European one by a few quarters, and can therefore be useful in predicting euro area gross domestic product (GDP). In this paper we investigate whether additional predictive power can be gained by adding selected financial variables belonging to either the USA or the euro area. We use vector autoregressions (VARs) that include the US and euro area GDPs as well as growth in the Rest of the World and selected combinations of financial variables. Out‐of‐sample root mean square forecast errors (RMSEs) evidence that adding financial variables produces a slightly smaller error in forecasting US economic activity. This weak macro‐financial linkage is even weaker in the euro area, where financial indicators do not improve short‐ and medium‐term GDP forecasts even when their timely availability relative to GDP is exploited. It can be conjectured that neither US nor European financial variables help predict euro area GDP as the US GDP has already embodied this information. However, we show that the finding that financial variables have no predictive power for future activity in the euro area relates to the unconditional nature of the RMSE metric. When forecasting ability is assessed as if in real time (i.e. conditionally on the information available at the time when forecasts are made), we find that models using financial variables would have been preferred in several episodes and in particular between 1999 and 2002. Copyright 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.     

It starts at home? Climate policies targeting household consumption and behavioral decisions are key to low-carbon futures

Through their consumption behavior, households are responsible for 72% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Thus, they are key actors in reaching the 1.5 °C goal under the Paris Agreement. However, the possible contribution and position of households in climate policies is neither well understood, nor do households receive sufficiently high priority in current climate policy strategies. This paper investigates how behavioral change can achieve a substantial reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in European high-income countries. It uses theoretical thinking and some core results from the HOPE research project, which investigated household preferences for reducing emissions in four European cities in France, Germany, Norway and Sweden. The paper makes five major points: First, car and plane mobility, meat and dairy consumption, as well as heating are the most dominant components of household footprints. Second, household living situations (demographics, size of home) greatly influence the household potential to reduce their footprint, even more than country or city location. Third, household decisions can be sequential and temporally dynamic, shifting through different phases such as childhood, adulthood, and illness. Fourth, short term voluntary efforts will not be sufficient by themselves to reach the drastic reductions needed to achieve the 1.5 °C goal; instead, households need a regulatory framework supporting their behavioral changes. Fifth, there is a mismatch between the roles and responsibilities conveyed by current climate policies and household perceptions of responsibility. We then conclude with further recommendations for research and policy.     

ECB Projections as a Tool for Understanding Policy Decisions

The European Central Bank publishes inflation projections quarterly and we aim to establish empirically whether they influence private inflation forecasts and whether they may be considered as an enhanced means of implementing policy decisions by facilitating private agents’ information processing. We provide original evidence that ECB inflation projections do influence private inflation expectations positively, and that ECB projections convey signals about future ECB rate movements. This paper suggests that ECB projections enable private agents to correctly interpret and predict policy decisions. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The COVID-19 pandemic and global environmental change: Emerging research needs

The outbreak of COVID-19 raised numerous questions on the interactions between the occurrence of new infections, the environment, climate and health. The European Union requested the H2020 HERA project which aims at setting priorities in research on environment, climate and health, to identify relevant research needs regarding Covid-19. The emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 appears to be related to urbanization, habitat destruction, live animal trade, intensive livestock farming and global travel. The contribution of climate and air pollution requires additional studies. Importantly, the severity of COVID-19 depends on the interactions between the viral infection, ageing and chronic diseases such as metabolic, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and obesity which are themselves influenced by environmental stressors. The mechanisms of these interactions deserve additional scrutiny. Both the pandemic and the social response to the disease have elicited an array of behavioural and societal changes that may remain long after the pandemic and that may have long term health effects including on mental health. Recovery plans are currently being discussed or implemented and the environmental and health impacts of those plans are not clearly foreseen. Clearly, COVID-19 will have a long-lasting impact on the environmental health field and will open new research perspectives and policy needs.     

The COVID-19 pandemic and global environmental change: Emerging research needs

The outbreak of COVID-19 raised numerous questions on the interactions between the occurrence of new infections, the environment, climate and health. The European Union requested the H2020 HERA project which aims at setting priorities in research on environment, climate and health, to identify relevant research needs regarding Covid-19. The emergence and spread of SARS-CoV-2 appears to be related to urbanization, habitat destruction, live animal trade, intensive livestock farming and global travel. The contribution of climate and air pollution requires additional studies. Importantly, the severity of COVID-19 depends on the interactions between the viral infection, ageing and chronic diseases such as metabolic, respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and obesity which are themselves influenced by environmental stressors. The mechanisms of these interactions deserve additional scrutiny. Both the pandemic and the social response to the disease have elicited an array of behavioural and societal changes that may remain long after the pandemic and that may have long term health effects including on mental health. Recovery plans are currently being discussed or implemented and the environmental and health impacts of those plans are not clearly foreseen. Clearly, COVID-19 will have a long-lasting impact on the environmental health field and will open new research perspectives and policy needs.     

Forward Rates,Monetary Policy and the Economic Cycle

The short end of the yield curve incorporates essential information to forecast central banks' decisions, but in a biased manner. This article proposes a new method to forecast the Fed and the European Central Bank's decision rate by correcting the swap rates for their cyclical economic premium, using an affine term structure model. The corrected yields offer a higher out‐of‐sample forecasting power than the yields themselves. They also deliver forecasts that are either comparable or better than those obtained with a factor‐augmented vector autoregressive model, underlining the fact that yields are likely to contain at least as much information regarding monetary policy as a dataset composed of economic data series. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Monetary policy,composite leading economic indicators and predicting the 2001 recession

On 26 November 2001, the National Bureau of Economic Research announced that the US economy had officially entered into a recession in March 2001. This decision was a surprise and did not end all the conflicting opinions expressed by economists. This matter was finally settled in July 2002 after a revision to the 2001 real gross domestic product showed negative growth rates for its first three quarters. A series of political and economic events in the years 2000–01 have increased the amount of uncertainty in the state of the economy, which in turn has resulted in the production of less reliable economic indicators and forecasts. This paper evaluates the performance of two very reliable methodologies for predicting a downturn in the US economy using composite leading economic indicators (CLI) for the years 2000–01. It explores the impact of the monetary policy on CLI and on the overall economy and shows how the gradualness and uncertainty of this impact on the overall economy have affected the forecasts of these methodologies. It suggests that the overexposure of the CLI to the monetary policy tools and a strong, but less effective, expansionary money policy have been the major factors in deteriorating the predictions of these methodologies. To improve these forecasts, it has explored the inclusion of the CLI diffusion index as a prior in the Bayesian methodology. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The semantic conception and the structuralist view of theories: A critique of Suppe’s criticisms

Different conceptions of scientific theories, such as the state spaces approach of Bas van Fraassen, the phase spaces approach of Frederick Suppe, the set-theoretical approach of Patrick Suppes, and the structuralist view of Joseph Sneed et al. are usually put together into one big family. In addition, the definite article is normally used, and thus we speak of the semantic conception (view or approach) of theories and of its different approaches (variants or versions). However, in The Semantic Conception of Theories and Scientific Realism (Urban and Chicago: University of Illinois Press, 1989), starting from certain remarks already made in “Theory Structure” (in P. Asquith and H. Kyburg (Eds.), Current Research in Philosophy of Science, East Lansing: Philosophy of Science Association, 1979, pp. 317–338), Frederick Suppe excludes the structuralist view as well as other “European” versions from the semantic conception of theories. In this paper I will critically examine the reasons put forward by Suppe for this decision and, later, I will provide a general characterization of the semantic family and of the structuralist view of theories in such a way as to justify the inclusion of the structuralist view (as well as other “European” versions) as a member of this family.     

Aristotle, Copernicus, Bruno: centrality, the principle of movement and the extension of the Universe

This paper¹ studies the different conceptions of both centrality and the principle or starting point of motion in the Universe held by Aristotle and later on by Copernicanism until Kepler and Bruno. According to Aristotle, the true centre of the Universe is the sphere of the fixed stars. This is also the starting point of motion. From this point of view, the diurnal motion is the fundamental one. Our analysis gives pride of place to De caelo II, 10, a chapter of Aristotle’s text which curiously allows an ‘Alpetragian’ reading of the transmission of motion.In Copernicus and the Copernicans, natural centrality is identified with the geometrical centre and, therefore, the Sun is acknowledged as the body through which the Deity acts on the world and it also plays the role of the principle and starting point of cosmic motion. This motion, however, is no longer diurnal motion, but the annual periodical motion of the planets. Within this context, we pose the question of to what extent it is possible to think that, before Kepler, there is a tacit attribution of a dynamic or motive role to the Sun by Copernicus, Rheticus, and Digges.For Bruno, since the Universe is infinite and homogeneous and the relationship of the Deity with it is one of indifferent presence everywhere, the Universe has no absolute centre, for any point is a centre. By the same token, there is no place that enjoys the prerogative of being—as being the seat of God—the motionless principle and starting point of motion.     

Modeling and forecasting municipal solid waste generation in the US energy supply

This paper describes an economic and statistical approach to modeling and forecasting municipal solid waste generation in the US energy supply. It begins with a discussion of the historical developments in the waste to energy industry over the last 25 years. Then a model is developed to provide energy policy makers with an analytical framework for understanding the relationships between the solid waste industry and the waste to energy industry. The model is tested empirically using data at the national level. The model's forecasts are compared with projections made by the US Environmental Protection Agency     

模糊测试技术研究

随着人们对软件安全问题关注度的不断提升,漏洞挖掘技术逐渐成为业内热点的研究内容.但传统的漏洞挖掘技术耗时长耗工大,更重要的是不能全面的探测出软件中的漏洞,因此一种简单高效的漏洞挖掘技术,即模糊测试技术,逐渐成为了研究者们关注的重点.本文首先重点介绍了模糊测试技术的相关理论知识及研究进展情况,并对比了传统漏洞挖掘技术与模糊测试技术进而说明模糊测试技术具有传统漏洞挖掘方法无可比拟的优势.之后,研究了目前模糊测试技术在各个领域内的应用情况,并比较了现有模糊测试工具的优缺点.最后列举出模糊测试技术的局限性,并阐述了模糊测试技术未来的发展方向.     

Forecasting economic indicators using a consumer sentiment index: Survey‐based versus text‐based data

Given the confirmed effectiveness of the survey‐based consumer sentiment index (CSI) as a leading indicator of real economic conditions, the CSI is actively used in making policy judgments and decisions in many countries. However, although the CSI offers qualitative information for presenting current conditions and predicting a household's future economic activity, the survey‐based method has several limitations. In this context, we extracted sentiment information from online economic news articles and demonstrated that the Korean cases are a good illustration of applying a text mining technique when generating a CSI using sentiment analysis. By applying a simple sentiment analysis based on the lexicon approach, this paper confirmed that news articles can be an effective source for generating an economic indicator in Korea. Even though cross‐national comparative research results are suited better than national‐level data to generalize and verify the method used in this study, international comparisons are quite challenging to draw due to the necessary linguistic preprocessing. We hope to encourage further cross‐national comparative research to apply the approach proposed in this study.     

Unified science as political philosophy: positivism, pluralism and liberalism

Logical positivism is widely associated with an illiberal technocratic view of politics. This view is a caricature. Some members of the left Vienna circle were explicit in their criticism of this conception of politics. In particular, Neurath’s work attempted to link the internal epistemological pluralism and tolerance of logical empiricism with political pluralism and the rejection of a technocratic politics. This paper examines the role that unified science played in Neurath’s defence of political and social pluralism. Neurath’s project of unified science addressed problems that lie at the centre of recent debates around liberalism concerning the possibility of social co-operation in conditions of pluralism. His response is distinctive in calling upon an empiricist tradition that differs from Kantian proceduralist approaches that have predominated in recent liberalism. While Neurath’s position has problems, it deserves reconsideration, especially in so far as it questions the Kantian assumption that a thin language of abstract rights provides the best basis for the cosmopolital lingua franca required by conditions of social pluralism. An investigation of the role that unified science plays in Neurath’s politics also gives reasons for revising common misconceptions about the nature of the unity of science programme itself.     

Autophagy and lysosomal proteolysis in the liver

Autophagy is defined as any process whereby cellular macromolecules destined for degradation gain access to the lysosomes. A review is presented on the physiological significance, mechanisms and regulation of autophagy in hepatocytes, concentrating on the issue of regulation. The article ends by discussing techniques available for future research.     

Pursuing frequency standards and control: the invention of quartz clock technologies

The quartz clock, the first to replace the pendulum as the time standard and later a ubiquitous and highly influential technology, originated in research on means for determining frequency for the needs of telecommunication and the interests of its users. This article shows that a few groups in the US, Britain, Italy and the Netherlands developed technologies that enabled the construction of the new clock in 1927–28. To coordinate complex and large communication networks, the monopolistic American Telephone and Telegraph Company, and national laboratories needed to determine and maintain a common ‘standard’ frequency measurement unit. Exploiting novel piezoelectric quartz methods and valve electronics techniques, researchers in these organizations constructed a new crystal-based frequency standard. To ensure its accuracy they compared it to an accepted absolute standard - an astronomical clock, constructing thereby the first quartz clock. Other groups, however, had different, though connected, technological aims, which originated from the diverse interests of the industrial, governmental and academic institutes to which they belonged, and for which they needed to measure, control and manipulate with frequencies of electric oscillations. The present article suggests a comparative examination of the research and development paths of these groups on their incentives, the technological and scientific resources they utilized, and the kind of research carried out in the various institutional settings.     

Autophagy and lysosomal proteolysis in the liver

Summary Autophagy is defined as any process whereby cellular macromolecules destined for degradation gain access to the lysosomes. A review is presented on the physiological significance, mechanisms and regulation of autophagy in hepatocytes, concentrating on the issue of regulation. The article ends by discussing techniques available for future research.     

信息可视化和可视分析：挑战与机遇——北戴河信息可视化战略研讨会总结报告

由天津大学软件学院发起并召集,东北大学秦皇岛分校和燕山大学承办的信息可视化战略研讨会于2012年6月9-10日在北戴河成功举行．本文总结了此次会议的讨论内容和达成的共识,对当前信息可视化和可视分析领域的挑战和国际上这方面的研究方向做了大致的分析,并对今后信息可视化和可视分析的大方向提出一些建议,以及对具体行动提出一系列倡议．     

Isoelectric focusing of mosquito esterases in the presence of Triton X-100

Summary Triton X-100 improves nonspecific esterase solubilization from mosquito samples and also leads to increased resolution in an isoelectric focusing electrophoresis.Acknowledgments. This research was supported by a US Army contract/grant DAMD 17-77-C-7018, US Army Medical Research and Development Command, Washington, DC and by the Office of Naval Research.     

The evolution of X chromosome inactivation in mammals: the demise of Ohno’s hypothesis?

Ohno’s hypothesis states that dosage compensation in mammals evolved in two steps: a twofold hyperactivation of the X chromosome in both sexes to compensate for gene losses on the Y chromosome, and silencing of one X (X-chromosome inactivation, XCI) in females to restore optimal dosage. Recent tests of this hypothesis have returned contradictory results. In this review, we explain this ongoing controversy and argue that a novel view on dosage compensation evolution in mammals is starting to emerge. Ohno’s hypothesis may be true for a few, dosage-sensitive genes only. If so few genes are compensated, then why has XCI evolved as a chromosome-wide mechanism? This and several other questions raised by the new data in mammals are discussed, and future research directions are proposed.