CMIP5模拟的平流层21世纪温度变化趋势

21世纪平流层气候变化主要由两个因素所决定,一个是臭氧层恢复造成的变暖,另一个是温室气体增加造成的变冷。针对在这两种相反的辐射效应作用下,平流层气温如何变化这一重要问题, 使用CMIP5未来情景模拟试验的结果, 对2006-2100年间的平流层温度的变化趋势进行分析。结果表明, 臭氧恢复的增温效应在平流层低层起主导作用, 而温室气体增加的冷却效应在平流层高层起主导作用, 因此, 平流层低层(70 hPa 以下)呈变暖趋势, 而平流层中高层呈变冷趋势。通过对包含完整平流层的气候模式(高顶模式)和只包含部分平流层的气候模式(低顶模式)预估的温度趋势的差异进行分析, 发现高顶模式预估的变暖趋势大于低顶模式的结果, 这意味着模式是否包含完整平流层有可能对预估的平流层和对流层未来气候变化有重要影响。     

An influence of solar spectral variations on radiative forcing of climate

The thermal structure and composition of the atmosphere is determined fundamentally by the incoming solar irradiance. Radiation at ultraviolet wavelengths dissociates atmospheric molecules, initiating chains of chemical reactions-specifically those producing stratospheric ozone-and providing the major source of heating for the middle atmosphere, while radiation at visible and near-infrared wavelengths mainly reaches and warms the lower atmosphere and the Earth's surface. Thus the spectral composition of solar radiation is crucial in determining atmospheric structure, as well as surface temperature, and it follows that the response of the atmosphere to variations in solar irradiance depends on the spectrum. Daily measurements of the solar spectrum between 0.2?μm and 2.4?μm, made by the Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) instrument on the Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment (SORCE) satellite since April 2004, have revealed that over this declining phase of the solar cycle there was a four to six times larger decline in ultraviolet than would have been predicted on the basis of our previous understanding. This reduction was partially compensated in the total solar output by an increase in radiation at visible wavelengths. Here we show that these spectral changes appear to have led to a significant decline from 2004 to 2007 in stratospheric ozone below an altitude of 45?km, with an increase above this altitude. Our results, simulated with a radiative-photochemical model, are consistent with contemporaneous measurements of ozone from the Aura-MLS satellite, although the short time period makes precise attribution to solar effects difficult. We also show, using the SIM data, that solar radiative forcing of surface climate is out of phase with solar activity. Currently there is insufficient observational evidence to validate the spectral variations observed by SIM, or to fully characterize other solar cycles, but our findings raise the possibility that the effects of solar variability on temperature throughout the atmosphere may be contrary to current expectations.     

关于大气臭氧问题的主要研究进展

大气臭氧是非常重要的温室气体,其在全球的分布具有不均匀性,受到人类活动的显著影响,近几十年来由于对流层臭氧增加造成正的辐射强迫会增加大气温室效应,而平流臭氧减少会使其吸收的紫外线辐射减少,为负的辐射强迫,使得平流层大气降温。因此关于大气臭氧浓度变化及其对气候的影响是非常复杂的,一直是科学界研究的热点和难点问题。自从20世纪50年代末到70年代就发现臭氧浓度有减少的趋势。1985年英国南极考察队在南纬60°地区观测发现存在大气臭氧层空洞;自此开始,大气臭氧问题引起了世界各国的极大关注,并给予很多研究。目前,平流层和对流层臭氧浓度的观测仍然是研究的重点。鉴于对流层臭氧浓度持续升高和平流层臭氧浓度的不断下降,以及他们在对流层和平流层大气温度中所起的不同作用,本文将主要针对近五年来大气臭氧相关的研究进展进行简要的综述,包括对流层和平流层臭氧浓度及其观测研究,和人类活动的影响等方面进行分述。最后给出目前研究工作的不足和未来工作展望。     

南极高空臭氧含量减少对平流层温度场影响的数值模拟

目的对比研究南极大陆高空臭氧含量对全球平流层大气温度场的影响。方法应用改进后的CCM1(R15L12)模式,以国家气象中心1991年1月16日的全球客观分析资料为初始场,积分到1998年7月31日。结果平流层上、中、下部温度下降的趋势均较为明显,同时部分区域温度略有增高,这在北半球更为显著。结论整体而言臭氧减少可造成平流层各层的温度降低,从而影响到平流层的大气环流及输送过程。     

平流层极地臭氧损耗影响对流层气候的研究进展

大气平流层臭氧的严重损耗将导致到达地面的太阳紫外辐射增加已经是公共社会普遍关切的问题。最近几年,平流层臭氧损耗能否对对流层大气环流和气候产生重要影响也引起了广泛的重视,并且已成为大气科学的一个热点问题。观测研究表明近二三十年来在两极臭氧严重损耗的季节,地表气温有明显的变暖趋势,也就是欧亚大陆1—3月份和南极半岛12—5月份的地面温度呈现显著增温。这些增温趋势很可能是平流层两极的严重臭氧损耗造成的。当然,这些增温并非是由臭氧损耗的辐射效应直接造成的,而是通过波－流相互作用以及平流层－对流层相互作用等动力学过程实现的。大量的数值模拟工作也对此问题进行了研究,一些模拟结果与观测结果基本一致,另一些则发现平流层臭氧损耗的强迫作用较弱,也有模拟工作认为其他外界强迫如温室气体增加和热带海面温度升高也非常重要。作者综述了这一研究领域在近几年的最新研究进展,总结有关的观测分析和数值模拟结果,阐述平流层极地臭氧损耗可能影响地面温度的物理机制,以及澄清各种争论要点。     

亚印太交汇区低纬上空不同层次大气臭氧的时空变化分析

 利用ECMWF 195709~200208共45a的多层臭氧质量混合比月平均资料,详细分析了亚印太交汇区(AIPO)低纬地带上空平流层、对流层各层次上臭氧浓度的分布特征.结果表明:①区域上空对流层、平流层及臭氧总量大尺度特征均显著,纬度带分布特征明显;②对流层和平流层臭氧各个季节变化趋势相反,平流层臭氧和臭氧总量各个季节变化趋势一致;同一层次夏季臭氧浓度变化趋势与其他3个季节变化趋势相反;③区域上空20~3hPa是臭氧浓度的高值区,50~30hPa臭氧平均变化幅度最大;④对流层臭氧距平变化在整个高度上较为一致,正、负距平随季节绕赤道做南、北半球摆动,且存在季节性突变;⑤赤道上空有明显从平流层上层随季节逐渐往较低层传播的臭氧正负距平现象.     

Mechanism of stratospheric decadal abrupt cooling in the Early 1990s as influenced by the Pinatubo eruption

Studies have suggested that one volcanic eruption can influence seasonal to inter-annual climate variations.This study indicates that the Pinatubo eruption in 1991 may have actually induced the stratospheric decadal cooling recorded in the early 1990s.Using the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and TOMS/SBUV satellite data,a decadal abrupt cooling of stratospheric tropical air temperature was found to have occurred in the early 1990s during a long-term descending trend.We generated the spatio-temporal structures of the decadal abrupt changes(DACs) for the stratosphere,and explored the relationship between the Pinatubo volcano eruption in 1991 and stratospheric DACs in the early 1990s.Our results suggest that the eruption of Pinatubo prompted a decadal decrease of ozone by the activation of nitrate and sulfate volcanic aerosols on ClO free radicals.The stratospheric heat absorbed by ozone decreased over a decadal time scale.As a result,decadal abrupt cooling of stratospheric tropical air temperatures occurred in the early 1990s,and may be attributed to the Pinatubo eruption.The results therefore indicate that one strong volcanic eruption can induce stratospheric decadal climate variation.     

平流层CH4的时空变化特征及其与O3的关系

 利用1991年10月到2005年11月的HALO₃E卫星观测资料,对全球70°S～70°N范围内平流层100hPa到1 hPa的大气CH₄混合比进行了时空特征分析.结果表明:①CH₄混合比在平流层是随高度上升而逐渐减小的.平流层中上层CH₄变化存在年循环,而平流层中下层CH₄变化存在半年振荡(SAO₃),且南半球平流层CH₄的季节变化振幅要大于北半球,特别是平流层中上层.平流层各个高度上的CH₄基本呈纬向分布,但是不同高度上分布特征有所差异;②平流层CH₄混合比变化存在3个月,10个月,准25个月和准45个月左右时间尺度的周期,但是3个月的短期变化和10个月的年循环只在1996年之前明显;③不同高度上,CH₄和O₃变化的相关关系是不同的,CH₄对O₃的破坏作用并不是存在于整个平流层,似乎是在有的高度上相关关系明显,有的高度上相关关系不明显.     

Effect of climate change relative to ozone depletion on UV exposure in subarctic lakes

The effect of stratospheric ozone depletion on increases in ambient levels of solar ultraviolet (UV) radiation in high-latitude regions' has raised concerns about the response of northern ecosystems to environmental change. The concentration of coloured dissolved organic material, which is derived from terrestrial vegetation and acts as a screen for ultraviolet radiation, is low in high-latitude lakes. The underwater light environment in these lakes is therefore likely to be sensitive to small variations in the supply of this material, in addition to the effects of ozone depletion. Here we use fossil diatom assemblages in combination with bio-optical models to estimate the magnitude of past variations in the underwater light regime of a lake at the boreal tree line. We find large shifts in underwater UV-B, UV-A and photosynthetically available radiation associated with changes in the input of coloured dissolved organic material into subarctic lakes during the Holocene. The inferred changes in biological exposure to UV radiation were at least two orders of magnitude greater than those associated with moderate (30%) ozone depletion. Our findings indicate that freshwater ecosystems at present located across vegetation gradients will experience significant shifts in underwater spectral irradiance through the effects of climate change on catchment vegetation and the export of coloured dissolved organic material.     

Extreme climate of the global troposphere and stratosphere in 1940-42 related to El Niño

Although the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation phenomenon is the most prominent mode of climate variability and affects weather and climate in large parts of the world, its effects on Europe and the high-latitude stratosphere are controversial. Using historical observations and reconstruction techniques, we analyse the anomalous state of the troposphere and stratosphere in the Northern Hemisphere from 1940 to 1942 that occurred during a strong and long-lasting El Ni?o event. Exceptionally low surface temperatures in Europe and the north Pacific Ocean coincided with high temperatures in Alaska. In the lower stratosphere, our reconstructions show high temperatures over northern Eurasia and the north Pacific Ocean, and a weak polar vortex. In addition, there is observational evidence for frequent stratospheric warmings and high column ozone at Arctic and mid-latitude sites. We compare our historical data for the period 1940-42 with more recent data and a 650-year climate model simulation. We conclude that the observed anomalies constitute a recurring extreme state of the global troposphere-stratosphere system in northern winter that is related to strong El Ni?o events.     

东亚地区人为硫酸盐气溶胶辐射气候效应不同模拟方法的对比

 利用区域气候模式RegCM2与大气化学模式连接的模拟系统,研究了中国地区人为排放生成的硫酸盐气溶胶分布及其辐射气候效应,并与全球模式的结果进行了比较,同时对比了硫酸盐气溶胶辐射气候效应的在线、离线模拟方法所得结果差异的细致情况.通过以上工作表明:区域气候和大气化学耦合模式系统能在比大气环流模式更精细的尺度上获得硫酸盐分布规律和辐射气候效应;并且区域气候模式与大气化学模式的在线与离线连接方法得到的硫酸盐柱含量、有反馈和无反馈大气顶直接辐射强迫和地表温度响应在较小区域平均的尺度上存在较显著的差异,并且在全区域平均尺度上也不能被忽略;通过对气候响应的进一步分析发现:模拟结果显示了从硫酸盐含量到辐射强迫和地表温度响应逐渐加大的不确定性.     

Indirect radiative forcing of climate change through ozone effects on the land-carbon sink

The evolution of the Earth's climate over the twenty-first century depends on the rate at which anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions are removed from the atmosphere by the ocean and land carbon cycles. Coupled climate-carbon cycle models suggest that global warming will act to limit the land-carbon sink, but these first generation models neglected the impacts of changing atmospheric chemistry. Emissions associated with fossil fuel and biomass burning have acted to approximately double the global mean tropospheric ozone concentration, and further increases are expected over the twenty-first century. Tropospheric ozone is known to damage plants, reducing plant primary productivity and crop yields, yet increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations are thought to stimulate plant primary productivity. Increased carbon dioxide and ozone levels can both lead to stomatal closure, which reduces the uptake of either gas, and in turn limits the damaging effect of ozone and the carbon dioxide fertilization of photosynthesis. Here we estimate the impact of projected changes in ozone levels on the land-carbon sink, using a global land carbon cycle model modified to include the effect of ozone deposition on photosynthesis and to account for interactions between ozone and carbon dioxide through stomatal closure. For a range of sensitivity parameters based on manipulative field experiments, we find a significant suppression of the global land-carbon sink as increases in ozone concentrations affect plant productivity. In consequence, more carbon dioxide accumulates in the atmosphere. We suggest that the resulting indirect radiative forcing by ozone effects on plants could contribute more to global warming than the direct radiative forcing due to tropospheric ozone increases.     

考虑组分相互作用的飞艇蒙皮材料力学模型

平流层空间空气稀薄,昼夜温差变化剧烈,巡航状态的平流层飞艇需要承受较大的循环压差载荷。蒙皮作为平流层飞艇的主要承力结构,其材料力学性能直接影响着飞艇的使用性。针对蒙皮材料层压结构特点,构建其细观结构模型。通过研究拉伸过程中纤维纱束与基体和膜层的相互作用,指出承力方向纤维纱束的变形过程分为弯曲状态逐步拉直和产生伸长形变两个阶段。建立了蒙皮材料拉伸过程的非线性力学模型;并通过与准静态拉伸试验获得的材料应力-应变曲线进行对比分析,校验了模型的准确性并分析了模型参数的改变对材料力学性能的影响,为平流层飞艇蒙皮材料结构优化设计提供依据。     

Detection of bromine monoxide in a volcanic plume

The emission of volcanic gases usually precedes eruptive activity, providing both a warning signal and an indication of the nature of the lava soon to be erupted. Additionally, volcanic emissions are a significant source of gases and particles to the atmosphere, influencing tropospheric and stratospheric trace-gas budgets. Despite some halogen species having been measured in volcanic plumes (mainly HCl and HF), little is known about bromine compounds and, in particular, gas-phase reactive bromine species. Such species are especially important in the stratosphere, as reactive bromine-despite being two orders of magnitude less abundant than chlorine-accounts for about one-third of halogen-catalysed ozone depletion. In the troposphere, bromine-catalysed complete ozone destruction has been observed to occur regularly during spring in the polar boundary layers as well as in the troposphere above the Dead Sea basin. Here we report observations of BrO and SO2 abundances in the plume of the Soufrière Hills volcano (Montserrat) in May 2002 by ground-based multi-axis differential optical absorption spectroscopy. Our estimate of BrO emission leads us to conclude that local ozone depletion and small ozone 'holes' may occur in the vicinity of active volcanoes, and that the amount of bromine emitted from volcanoes might be sufficiently large to play a role not only in the stratosphere, but also in tropospheric chemistry.     

平流层各层温度变化的时空特征分析

利用欧洲中心的ECMWF月平均温度场再分析资料分析了平流层各个层次温度变化的空间分布特征,结果表明1958-2001年全球平流层不同高度温度的变化有一定的差异．在平流层上层2hPa,温度呈显著的下降趋势;平流层中层20hPa温度场低纬度地区和高纬度地区相反变化,低纬度地区呈显著的下降;平流层下层70hPa温度场除了南半球高纬度地区外也呈下降趋势．同时,分析了不同区域温度变化的趋势和周期特征,平流层不同层次温度变化周期有着一定的差异,温度下降区域和温度上升区域的突变时间也有着明显的不同．     

Detection of stratospheric ozone intrusions by windprofiler radars

Stratospheric ozone attenuates harmful ultraviolet radiation and protects the Earth's biosphere. Ozone is also of fundamental importance for the chemistry of the lowermost part of the atmosphere, the troposphere. At ground level, ozone is an important by-product of anthropogenic pollution, damaging forests and crops, and negatively affecting human health. Ozone is critical to the chemical and thermal balance of the troposphere because, via the formation of hydroxyl radicals, it controls the capacity of tropospheric air to oxidize and remove other pollutants. Moreover, ozone is an important greenhouse gas, particularly in the upper troposphere. Although photochemistry in the lower troposphere is the major source of tropospheric ozone, the stratosphere-troposphere transport of ozone is important to the overall climatology, budget and long-term trends of tropospheric ozone. Stratospheric intrusion events, however, are still poorly understood. Here we introduce the use of modern windprofiler radars to assist in such transport investigations. By hourly monitoring the radar-derived tropopause height in combination with a series of frequent ozonesonde balloon launches, we find numerous intrusions of ozone from the stratosphere into the troposphere in southeastern Canada. On some occasions, ozone is dispersed at altitudes of two to four kilometres, but on other occasions it reaches the ground, where it can dominate the ozone density variability. We observe rapid changes in radar tropopause height immediately preceding these intrusion events. Such changes therefore serve as a valuable diagnostic for the occurrence of ozone intrusion events. Our studies emphasize the impact that stratospheric ozone can have on tropospheric ozone, and show that windprofiler data can be used to infer the possibility of ozone intrusions, as well as better represent tropopause motions in association with stratosphere-troposphere transport.     

Ozone vertical variations during a typhoon derived from the OMI observations and reanalysis data

Typhoon is considered to play a key role in the dynamical exchange processes taking place between the troposphere and stratosphere. In this paper, the impact of typhoon on the ozone distribution in the upper troposphere and middle stratosphere is investigated using ozone profiles measured by Aura’s Ozone Monitoring Instrument and meteorological fields from reanalysis data. During the passage of Typhoon Hai-Tang in 2005 over the western North Pacific, low values of ozone column above 200 hPa and ozone mixing ratio between the upper troposphere and the middle stratosphere (from 200 to 50 hPa) are observed right above the typhoon’s track, a result due to the strong upward propagation of air associated with overshooting convection in typhoon. A comparative analysis of different stages of Hai-Tang suggests that in the region where typhoon has higher intensity the troposphere-to-stratosphere transport is enhanced. These results indicated that the typhoon has a significant impact on the ozone variation in the upper troposphere and the middle stratosphere.     

Removal of chlorofluorocarbons by increased mass exchange between the stratosphere and troposphere in a changing climate

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs), along with bromine compounds, have been unequivocally identified as being responsible for most of the anthropogenic destruction of stratospheric ozone. With curbs on emissions of these substances, the recovery of the ozone layer will depend on their removal from the atmosphere. As CFCs have no significant tropospheric removal process, but are rapidly photolysed above the lower stratosphere, the timescale for their removal is set mainly by the rate at which air is transported from the troposphere into the stratosphere. Using a global climate model we predict that, in response to the projected changes in greenhouse-gas concentrations during the first half of the twenty-first century, this rate of mass exchange will increase by 3% per decade. This increase is due to more vigorous extra-tropical planetary waves emanating from the troposphere. We estimate that this increase in mass exchange will accelerate the removal of CFCs to an extent that recovery to levels currently predicted for 2050 and 2080 will occur 5 and 10 years earlier, respectively.     

Enhancements in biologically effective ultraviolet radiation following volcanic eruptions.

Aerosols injected into the stratosphere by large volcanic eruptions may induce ozone destruction through processes including heterogeneous chemical reactions. The effect of ozone reductions on surface ultraviolet irradiation is not obvious, however, because aerosols also increase the reflection of sunlight. Here we use a radiative transfer model to estimate the changes in biologically effective ultraviolet radiation (UV-BE) at the Earth's surface produced by the El Chichón (1982) and Mount Pinatubo (1991) eruptions. We find that in both cases surface UV-BE intensity can increase because the effect of ozone depletion outweighs the increased scattering.     

Dust direct radiative effects on the earth-atmosphere system over east Asia: Early spring cooling and late spring warming

Focusing on three dust storms occurring in spring 2001,we developed a detailed aerosol parameterization scheme and integrated it in a radiative transfer model to characterize possible impacts of solar altitude angle on dust direct radiative effects over China desert regions and the North Pacific,using actual daily solar altitude angles.Increasing solar altitude angle from early spring (or winter) to late spring (or summer) leads to increase of positive clear sky radiative forcing,and decrease of negative radiative forcing due to dust aerosols at the top of the atmosphere.Because solar altitude angle increases from early to late spring,dust-clear sky radiative forcing may change from negative to positive at the top of atmosphere,showing a change from cooling to heating of the earth-atmosphere system over high-albedo deserts and nearby regions.Over low-albedo ocean negative clear sky radiative forcing by dust may decrease,suggesting a change from strong to weak cooling on the earth-atmosphere system.The impacts of solar altitude angle on cloudy sky radiative forcing due to dust are similar to those of clear sky.Impacts of low cloud on dust radiative forcing are the same as increasing surface albedo.This causes the transition of dust cooling effects into heating effects over deserts to occur earlier,and causes decrease of negative radiative forcing over the ocean and even cause a change from weak negative radiative forcing to weak positive forcing over local areas.Even in the same East Asian desert regions and nearby areas,the strength and sign of the radiative forcings depend on storm dates and thus solar altitude angle.The nearer to early spring (or winter) a dust storm occurs,the easier it leads to negative radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere,which indicates cooling effects on the earth-atmosphere system.In contrast,the nearer to late spring (or summer) a dust storm occurs,the easier it leads to positive radiative forcing at the top of atmosphere,showing heating effects.Over East Asian deserts and nearby regions,dust layers may be regarded as cooling sources in early spring (winter) and warming sources in late spring (summer).