Earthquake triggering by seismic waves following the Landers and Hector Mine earthquakes

The proximity and similarity of the 1992, magnitude 7.3 Landers and 1999, magnitude 7.1 Hector Mine earthquakes in California permit testing of earthquake triggering hypotheses not previously possible. The Hector Mine earthquake confirmed inferences that transient, oscillatory 'dynamic' deformations radiated as seismic waves can trigger seismicity rate increases, as proposed for the Landers earthquake. Here we quantify the spatial and temporal patterns of the seismicity rate changes. The seismicity rate increase was to the north for the Landers earthquake and primarily to the south for the Hector Mine earthquake. We suggest that rupture directivity results in elevated dynamic deformations north and south of the Landers and Hector Mine faults, respectively, as evident in the asymmetry of the recorded seismic velocity fields. Both dynamic and static stress changes seem important for triggering in the near field with dynamic stress changes dominating at greater distances. Peak seismic velocities recorded for each earthquake suggest the existence of, and place bounds on, dynamic triggering thresholds. These thresholds vary from a few tenths to a few MPa in most places, depend on local conditions, and exceed inferred static thresholds by more than an order of magnitude. At some sites, the onset of triggering was delayed until after the dynamic deformations subsided. Physical mechanisms consistent with all these observations may be similar to those that give rise to liquefaction or cyclic fatigue.     

Earthquake nucleation by transient deformations caused by the M = 7.9 Denali, Alaska, earthquake

The permanent and dynamic (transient) stress changes inferred to trigger earthquakes are usually orders of magnitude smaller than the stresses relaxed by the earthquakes themselves, implying that triggering occurs on critically stressed faults. Triggered seismicity rate increases may therefore be most likely to occur in areas where loading rates are highest and elevated pore pressures, perhaps facilitated by high-temperature fluids, reduce frictional stresses and promote failure. Here we show that the 2002 magnitude M = 7.9 Denali, Alaska, earthquake triggered widespread seismicity rate increases throughout British Columbia and into the western United States. Dynamic triggering by seismic waves should be enhanced in directions where rupture directivity focuses radiated energy, and we verify this using seismic and new high-sample GPS recordings of the Denali mainshock. These observations are comparable in scale only to the triggering caused by the 1992 M = 7.4 Landers, California, earthquake, and demonstrate that Landers triggering did not reflect some peculiarity of the region or the earthquake. However, the rate increases triggered by the Denali earthquake occurred in areas not obviously tectonically active, implying that even in areas of low ambient stressing rates, faults may still be critically stressed and that dynamic triggering may be ubiquitous and unpredictable.     

Evidence from the AD 2000 Izu islands earthquake swarm that stressing rate governs seismicity

Magma intrusions and eruptions commonly produce abrupt changes in seismicity far from magma conduits that cannot be associated with the diffusion of pore fluids or heat. Such 'swarm' seismicity also migrates with time, and often exhibits a 'dog-bone'-shaped distribution. The largest earthquakes in swarms produce aftershocks that obey an Omori-type (exponential) temporal decay, but the duration of the aftershock sequences is drastically reduced, relative to normal earthquake activity. Here we use one of the most energetic swarms ever recorded to study the dependence of these properties on the stress imparted by a magma intrusion. A 1,000-fold increase in seismicity rate and a 1,000-fold decrease in aftershock duration occurred during the two-month-long dyke intrusion. We find that the seismicity rate is proportional to the calculated stressing rate, and that the duration of aftershock sequences is inversely proportional to the stressing rate. This behaviour is in accord with a laboratory-based rate/state constitutive law, suggesting an explanation for the occurrence of earthquake swarms. Any sustained increase in stressing rate--whether due to an intrusion, extrusion or creep event--should produce such seismological behaviour.     

Earthquakes as beacons of stress change

Aftershocks occurring on faults in the far-field of a large earthquake rupture can generally be accounted for by changes in static stress on these faults caused by the rupture. This implies that faults interact, and that the timing of an earthquake can be affected by previous nearby ruptures. Here we explore the potential of small earthquakes to act as 'beacons' for the mechanical state of the crust. We investigate the static-stress changes resulting from the 1992 Landers earthquake in southern California which occurred in an area of high seismic activity stemming from many faults. We first gauge the response of the regional seismicity to the Landers event with a new technique, and then apply the same method to the inverse problem of determining the slip distribution on the main rupture from the seismicity. Assuming justifiable parameters, we derive credible matches to slip profiles obtained directly from the Landers mainshock. Our results provide a way to monitor mechanical conditions in the upper crust, and to investigate processes leading to fault failure.     

Decay of aftershock density with distance indicates triggering by dynamic stress

The majority of earthquakes are aftershocks, yet aftershock physics is not well understood. Many studies suggest that static stress changes trigger aftershocks, but recent work suggests that shaking (dynamic stresses) may also play a role. Here we measure the decay of aftershocks as a function of distance from magnitude 2-6 mainshocks in order to clarify the aftershock triggering process. We find that for short times after the mainshock, when low background seismicity rates allow for good aftershock detection, the decay is well fitted by a single inverse power law over distances of 0.2-50 km. The consistency of the trend indicates that the same triggering mechanism is working over the entire range. As static stress changes at the more distant aftershocks are negligible, this suggests that dynamic stresses may be triggering all of these aftershocks. We infer that the observed aftershock density is consistent with the probability of triggering aftershocks being nearly proportional to seismic wave amplitude. The data are not fitted well by models that combine static stress change with the evolution of frictionally locked faults.     

Annual modulation of triggered seismicity following the 1992 Landers earthquake in California

The mechanism responsible for the triggering of earthquakes remains one of the least-understood aspects of the earthquake process. The magnitude-7.3 Landers, California earthquake of 28 June 1992 was followed for several weeks by triggered seismic activity over a large area, encompassing much of the western United States. Here we show that this triggered seismicity marked the beginning of a five-year trend, consisting of an elevated microearthquake rate that was modulated by an annual cycle, decaying with time. The annual cycle is mainly associated with several hydrothermal or volcanic regions where short-term triggering was also observed. These data indicate that the Landers earthquake produced long-term physical changes in these areas, and that an environmental source of stress--plausibly barometric pressure--might be responsible for the annual variation.     

从汶川地震震前现象认识其发震动力应具有的大尺度与深层次性

认为汶川地震发震动力具有大尺度与深层次性,并就汶川地震的震前地震活动性进行了分析研究;大小环圆的交切,全球尺度条带的交会,深部地震活动的加强这几项地震活动性图像是汶川地震震前现象的重要特征,这些特征图像在1976年的唐山地震前也有所显示;条带交会,环圆交会,带圆交会处质点运动各异,相互闭锁,质点运动不易解耦,形成应力集中,常常可成为强震发生的场所;深部闭锁活动的特色,在地表观测中易于失察,成为巨大地震更不易预察的一种原因。鉴于巨大地震灾害的严重性,今后在地震预测监测中应加强对大尺度与深层次信息的监测、收集与分析研究。     

Space geodetic evidence for rapid strain rates in the New Madrid seismic zone of central USA

In the winter of 1811-1812, near the town of New Madrid in the central United States and more than 2,000 km from the nearest plate boundary, three earthquakes within three months shook the entire eastern half of the country and liquefied the ground over distances far greater than any historic earthquake in North America. The origin and modern significance of these earthquakes, however, is highly contentious. Geological evidence demonstrates that liquefaction due to strong ground shaking, similar in scale to that generated by the New Madrid earthquakes, has occurred at least three and possibly four times in the past 2,000 years (refs 4-6), consistent with recurrence statistics derived from regional seismicity. Here we show direct evidence for rapid strain rates in the area determined from a continuously operated global positioning system (GPS) network. Rates of strain are of the order of 10(-7) per year, comparable in magnitude to those across active plate boundaries, and are consistent with known active faults within the region. These results have significant implications for the definition of seismic hazard and for processes that drive intraplate seismicity.     

基于时空影响域的地震网络动力学演化特征分析

为了研究地震网络的动力学行为,基于时空影响域的地震网络,分析以大地震发生时间为基点的网络的拓扑特征演化.结果发现:大地震发生前网络的规模和熵值较小,模块度较大;大地震发生后网络的规模变大,熵值跳变到相对大的值,模块度值达到极小值.同时分析了1992年地震网络的多参数拓扑特征演化,结果表明地震网络表现出一种内在的网络动力学行为.此外,发现从大地震发生前100 d开始网络模块度振荡出现极大值,熵值振荡出现极小值,并呈现很好的负相关性.     

A simplified approach to the global seismic hazard assessment

Some earthquakes in recent years (such as Tangshan earthquake (1976, China), North Ridge earthquake (1994, USA), Kobe earthquake (1995, Japan)) did not occur in known faults; moreover, the detailed data of geology, earthquake, crust deformation, etc. needed by the fault model are very difficult to obtain in many regions of the world. A simplified method of global seismic hazard analysis is developed, based on an area source model and by using seismicity data, and the global seismic hazard map is compiled. To evaluate the effectiveness and credibility of the new method, comparison study of this map with the existing national maps has been performed, which implies that it is considerably valuable to apply this method to practical use.     

气象奇点与云南最大震级预报研究

根据地震活动与气象要素之间的密切关系,采用大量气象资料选取预报因子,将气象统计理论应用于地震预报,开创了地震预报的数值预报新方法,并对中国云南5个地震分区,分上下半年做出了最大震级预报,其置信度达到特别显著水平。这对提高地震预报水平将具有深远意义。     

Slip rate along the Lijiang-Ninglang fault zone estimated from repeating microearthquakes

Seismicity and slip rates along the Lijiang-Ninglang fault zone between 1999 and 2006 were investigated with the waveform data recorded by the Yunnan digital Seismic Network. The relocated seismicity by the double difference method clearly exhibits different features between the northern and southern segments. More than 76% earthquakes occurred in the southern segment of the fault near the Lijiang area. The relocated seismicity appears to reflect the crustal velocity structure of the study area. Using cross-correlation analysis, we identified a total of 92 doublets and 70 multiplets that show high waveform similarity. Most of these sequences are aperiodic with recurrence intervals varying from a few minutes to hundreds of days. Using two sequences that occurred regularly over the study period, we obtained a fault slip rate of approximately 5 mm/a at ∼23 km, in good agreement with geologic and surface GPS measurement. Supported by National Basic Research Program of China (Grant No. 2004CB418405) and National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 40174014)     

Earthquake Resistant Engineering and Application of Seismic Zonation Map of ChinaTechnicalInnovations

1Introduction　Chinaisacountrywithhighearthquakedisaster.Thego vernmentalwayskeepsaneyeonseismicresistantbuilding.Thepublishedseismiczonationmapprovidestheruleforcon structionseismicresistantfortification .Fortheconvenientuse ,theseismicresistantfortificationruleofseismiczonationmapandbasiccontentandmeaningisbrieflyintroduced .Forthosekeyprojectsofsuperhighorsuperlongconstruction ,forexample ,largedam ,nuclearpowerplant,largepetrochemi calplantetc .,duetohighinvestmentandhighsocietyinf luence…     

基于MATLAB的BP神经网络模型在地震预报中的应用

根据人工神经网络模型,运用MATLAB的神经网络工具箱建立BP神经网络预测模型,以地震变化率作为神经网络的输入,对台湾地区和四川地区地震数据时间序列进行分析对大地震的发生时间进行预测.实验证明该模型用于地震预报的有效性和可行性,具有良好的应用价值.     

Seismic hazard in the Marmara Sea region following the 17 August 1999 Izmit earthquake

On 17 August 1999, a destructive magnitude 7.4 earthquake occurred 100 km east of Istanbul, near the city of Izmit, on the North Anatolian fault. This 1,600-km-long plate boundary slips at an average rate of 2-3 cm yr(-1), and historically has been the site of many devastating earthquakes. This century alone it has ruptured over 900 km of its length. Models of earthquake-induced stress change combined with active fault maps had been used to forecast that the epicentral area of the 1999 Izmit event was indeed a likely location for the occurrence of a large earthquake. Here we show that the 1999 event itself significantly modifies the stress distribution resulting from previous fault interactions. Our new stress models take into account all events in the region with magnitudes greater than 6 having occurred since 1700 as well as secular interseismic stress change, constrained by GPS data. These models provide a consistent picture of the long term spatio-temporal behaviour of the North Anatolian fault and indicate that two events of magnitude equal to, or greater than, the Izmit earthquake are likely to occur within the next decades beneath the Marmara Sea, south of Istanbul.     

变速率加载下有侧压混凝土强度和变形特性

利用大连理工大学海岸和近海工程国家重点实验室最新研制和改造的大型混凝土静、动三轴试验系统 ,进行了 6 4块普通混凝土试块在 4种常定侧应力等级和 4个数量级加载速率的混凝土双轴压试验 .系统地探讨了有侧应力作用时 ,混凝土在不同加载速率下的受压变形和强度特性 .在此基础上 ,建立了以应变和八面体应力空间表示的有恒定侧压混凝土在不同加载速率下的破坏准则 ,为地震区的混凝土结构、海上混凝土采油平台和核防御壳等结构受动态双轴压组合荷载作用的分析奠定了可靠的基础 .     

基于AETA的电磁扰动与地震的相关性分析

基于多分量地震监测预测系统(AETA)进行电磁扰动观测(EMD), 通过观测数据特征分析和异常识别判定, 并结合地震事件进行相关性分析。结果表明, AETA电磁扰动观测数据与已知的环境噪声和人文噪声特征不符。基于磁传感器原理和麦克斯韦方程组推导, 提出信号可能来自近地表的自由电荷变化和运动。以九寨沟Ms 7.0级地震和宜宾长宁Ms 6.0级地震为例, 发现AETA电磁扰动均值异常与地震具有前兆相关性。其中, 日周期特性的SRSS波和电磁扰动超低频成分的出现与周边地区或龙门山断裂带以及鲜水河断裂带的强震风险相关。通过讨论信号源产生的物理机理, 认为日周期特性的SRSS波可能与来自地幔的熔融物质中带电粒子溢出至地壳有关, 在地球自转和公转综合作用下, 在震源附近或相关区域会产生与日升日落同步的日周期波动。     

Influence of the March 11, 2011 M w 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake on regional volcanic activities

Two days after the March 11,2011,Mw 9.0 Tohoku-oki earthquake,Shinmoedake volcano,located on the Japanese island of Honshu,erupted.Was this eruption triggered by the Tohoku-oki earthquake?Could Mount Fuji and Changbaishan volcanoes also be triggered to erupt?By calculating changes in the regional stress-strain field that resulted from the earthquake,we find that Mount Fuji,Shinmoedake and Changbaishan volcanoes are all located in regions of volumetric expansion.The volumetric expan-sions at a depth of 10 km are up to～220 nano-strain,～8 nano-strain,and～14 nano-strain,respectively,for the three volcanoes. The strain changes inferred from GPS co-seismic displacements also suggest that these three volcanoes are located in regions with surface areal expansion.Considering that the expansional stress may cause the opening of magma channels,exsolution of CO2 gases stored in magma,and a series of positive feedback effects,the Tohoku-oki earthquake may result in an increase in the activ-ity of these volcanoes.Attention should be paid to potential triggering of volcanic eruptions by stress changes induced by the Tohoku-oki earthquake.     

Widespread active detachment faulting and core complex formation near 13 degrees N on the Mid-Atlantic Ridge

Oceanic core complexes are massifs in which lower-crustal and upper-mantle rocks are exposed at the sea floor. They form at mid-ocean ridges through slip on detachment faults rooted below the spreading axis. To date, most studies of core complexes have been based on isolated inactive massifs that have spread away from ridge axes. Here we present a survey of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge near 13 degrees N containing a segment in which a number of linked detachment faults extend for 75 km along one flank of the spreading axis. The detachment faults are apparently all currently active and at various stages of development. A field of extinct core complexes extends away from the axis for at least 100 km. Our observations reveal the topographic characteristics of actively forming core complexes and their evolution from initiation within the axial valley floor to maturity and eventual inactivity. Within the surrounding region there is a strong correlation between detachment fault morphology at the ridge axis and high rates of hydroacoustically recorded earthquake seismicity. Preliminary examination of seismicity and seafloor morphology farther north along the Mid-Atlantic Ridge suggests that active detachment faulting is occurring in many segments and that detachment faulting is more important in the generation of ocean crust at this slow-spreading ridge than previously suspected.