国外气候变化与人口迁移研究

 通过对国外学术界关于气候变化与人口迁移的相关研究进行梳理发现，人口迁移不仅是气候变化应对机制，更是一系列国家背景、社会、政治和经济环境相互碰撞的复杂结果。针对气候变化问题，提出了各国应加强收集、共享与气候有关迁移的可靠数据，对移民相关政策制定应着力于改善目的地移民安置和生计问题。通过介绍气候变化和人口迁移方向现有国际研究趋势，展望了其未来的研究趋势。     

Climate change and population declines in a long-distance migratory bird

Phenological responses to climate change differ across trophic levels, which may lead to birds failing to breed at the time of maximal food abundance. Here we investigate the population consequences of such mistiming in the migratory pied flycatcher, Ficedula hypoleuca. In a comparison of nine Dutch populations, we find that populations have declined by about 90% over the past two decades in areas where the food for provisioning nestlings peaks early in the season and the birds are currently mistimed. In areas with a late food peak, early-breeding birds still breed at the right time, and there is, at most, a weak population decline. If food phenology advances further, we also predict population declines in areas with a late food peak, as in these areas adjustment to an advanced food peak is insufficient. Mistiming as a result of climate change is probably a widespread phenomenon, and here we provide evidence that it can lead to population declines.     

不同生态区蚕豆品种的光合特性研究

通过对不同生态区蚕豆品种的生育进程、叶绿素含量、净光合速率、光合速率日变化以及产量构成因素等特性研究，表明攀西地区蚕豆与云南蚕豆的生态类型比较接近，生育期、产量及产量构成因素相近，攀西地区的蚕豆的叶绿素含量及净光合速率较云南蚕豆高，更能充分利用强光；阿坝、甘孜州蚕豆的生态类型与攀西地区蚕豆相差较大，偏向于春性品种，南移后生育期长，植株高大，结实性差，叶片叶绿素含量及光合速率较高；成都地区的蚕豆表现为冬性较强，南移后，虽能正常结实，但产量较低，对高原亚热气候区生态条件适应力较差。     

中国适应气候变化的政策及行动

 为理清中国适应气候变化的发展变化历程,梳理了中国适应气候变化制度的建设过程,国家、部门及地方等不同层面适应气候变化政策的发展脉络,以及重点脆弱领域农业农村地区适应政策的发展现状;针对不同领域适应气候变化行动,从农业、水资源、陆地生态系统、海岸带、人体健康等不同角度总结了国内所开展的具体适应行动及其成效,并重点分析了农业农村地区适应行动;根据中国适应气候变化政策与行动的发展特征,提出了适应政策行动的未来发展建议。     

Archaeological records of Dadiwan in the past 60 ka and the origin of millet agriculture

This paper reports the recent excavation of Unit Dadiwan06 at the Dadiwan site in Qin’an County, Gansu.A 65 ka chronological framework is established for Dadiwan06 on the basis of absolute dating (AMS 14C and OSL), stratigraphy, climate change events and archaeology.Artifact distributions reveal patterns of human behavioral variation and adaptation over the past 60 ka, from primitive hunting and gathering to advanced hunting and gathering, to primitive Neolithic agriculture, and finally to advanced Neolithi...     

Responses of desertification to variations in wind activity over the past five decades in arid and semiarid areas in China

There have been significant variations in wind activity over the past five decades in arid and semiarid areas in China. High wind activity occurred from the 1960s to the 1970s, but wind activity has decreased continuously from the 1980s to the present; as a result, the potential sand transport during the latter period was only 20%-50% of the values during the 1960s and 1970s. Phases of high wind activity were highly consistent with the trends in desertification over the past five decades in arid and semiarid areas in China, but spring precipitation was also a significant factor： rapid desertification during the 1960s and 1970s was due to high wind activity, generally combining with low spring precipitation; subsequent rehabilitation since the 1980s has resulted from the combined effects of low wind activity and higher spring precipitation. Therefore, although modern desertification and rehabilitation processes are being more or less affected by human activities, both processes appear to be more strongly controlled by climate change.     

内蒙古包头地区候鸟迁徙状况的研究

包头地区具有大面积的黄灌水系，山地、草原、生态环境复杂，故为众多候鸟繁殖和旅居的适宜地区。对研究中国西部候鸟迁徙具有重要价值．从１９９０年至１９９７年对候鸟迁徙状况的初步观察研究．     

Impacts of climate warming on plants phenophases in China for the last 40 years

Based on plant phenology data from 26 stations of the Chinese Phenology Observation Network of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and the climate data, the change of plant phenophase in spring and the impact of climate warming on the plant phenophase in China for the last 40 years are analyzed. Furthermore, the geographical distribution models of phenophase in every decade are reconstructed, and the impact of climate warming on geographical distribution model of phenophase is studied as well. The results show that (ⅰ) the response of phenophase advance or delay to temperature change is nonlinear. Since the 1980s, at the same amplitude of temperature change, phenophase delay amplitude caused by temperature decrease is greater than phenophase advance amplitude caused by temperature increase; the rate of phenophase advance days decreases with temperature increase amplitude, and the rate of phenophase delay days increases with temperature decrease amplitude. (ⅱ) The geographical distribution model between phenophase and geographical location is unstable. Since the 1980s, with the spring temperature increasing in the most of China and decreasing in the south of Qinling Mountains, phenophases have advanced in northeastern China, North China and the lower reaches of the Changjiang River, and have delayed in the eastern part of southwestern China and the middle reaches of the Changjiang River; while the rate of the phenophase difference with latitude becomes smaller.     

Extended leaf phenology and the autumn niche in deciduous forest invasions

The phenology of growth in temperate deciduous forests, including the timing of leaf emergence and senescence, has strong control over ecosystem properties such as productivity and nutrient cycling, and has an important role in the carbon economy of understory plants. Extended leaf phenology, whereby understory species assimilate carbon in early spring before canopy closure or in late autumn after canopy fall, has been identified as a key feature of many forest species invasions, but it remains unclear whether there are systematic differences in the growth phenology of native and invasive forest species or whether invaders are more responsive to warming trends that have lengthened the duration of spring or autumn growth. Here, in a 3-year monitoring study of 43 native and 30 non-native shrub and liana species common to deciduous forests in the eastern United States, I show that extended autumn leaf phenology is a common attribute of eastern US forest invasions, where non-native species are extending the autumn growing season by an average of 4?weeks compared with natives. In contrast, there was no consistent evidence that non-natives as a group show earlier spring growth phenology, and non-natives were not better able to track interannual variation in spring temperatures. Seasonal leaf production and photosynthetic data suggest that most non-native species capture a significant proportion of their annual carbon assimilate after canopy leaf fall, a behaviour that was virtually absent in natives and consistent across five phylogenetic groups. Pronounced differences in how native and non-native understory species use pre- and post-canopy environments suggest eastern US invaders are driving a seasonal redistribution of forest productivity that may rival climate change in its impact on forest processes.     

Variety distribution pattern and climatic potential productivity of spring maize in Northeast China under climate change

This study was based on the daily meteorological data of 101 meteorological stations from 1971 to 2000 and the 0.25°×0.25° grid data from 1951 to 2100 simulated by RegCM3 under the future A1B climatic scenario published by National Climate Center,in combination with the demand of climatic condition for maize growth in Northeast China.The trajectory of agricultural climatic resources and the effects of climate change on variety distribution and climatic potential productivity of spring maize in Northeast China under future climate change were analyzed.The main agro-climatic resource factors include:the initial date daily average temperature stably passing 10℃(≥10℃),the first frost date,the days of growing period,the ≥10℃ accumulated temperature,and the total radiation and precipitation in the growing period.The results showed that:(1) in the coming 100 years,the first date of ≥10℃ would be significantly advanced,and the first frost date would be delayed.The days of growing period would be extended,the ≥10℃ accumulated temperature and the total radiation would be significantly increased.However,no significant change was found in precipitation.(2) Due to the climate change,the early-maturing varieties will be gradually replaced by late-maturing varieties in Northeast China,and the planting boundaries of several maize varieties would be extended northward and eastward.(3) There would be a significant change in the climatic potential productivity of maize in Northeast China with the high-value gradually moving towards northeast.(4) It was an effective way to increase the climatic potential productivity of maize by appropriate adjustment of sowing date.     

东北地区农业适应气候变化技术体系框架研究

 随着气候变化及其所带来的影响日益显著,目前适应气候变化越来越成为全球关注的热点问题。东北地区是中国重要的粮食生产基地,气候变化影响下东北农业生产变化将直接引起中国粮食安全问题。从气候变化角度着手,梳理了气候变化对东北农业影响的关键问题,分析指出近年来气候变化对东北地区农业4个最突出的影响：热量资源呈现增加趋势,旱涝灾害频次与强度增大,极端低温冷害事件下降,农业病虫害损失显著加重。针对这4个关键问题,从作物抗逆品种选育、作物应变耕作栽培、农田基本建设、种植结构调整、病虫害防治、农业保险等不同方面形成东北农业适应技术体系框架。     

A test of Snowmelt Runoff Model （SRM） for the Gongnaisi River basin in the western Tianshan Mountains, China

The Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) is one of a very few models in the world today that requires remote sensing derived snow cover as model input. Owing to its simple data requirements and use of remote sensing to provide snow cover information, SRM is ideal for use in data sparse regions, particularly in remote and inaccessible high mountain watersheds. In order to verify the applicability of SRM in an environment of continental climate, a test of SRM is performed for the Gongnaisi River basin in the western Tianshan Mountains, the results show that two SRM average goodness-of-fit statistics for simulations, Nash-Sutcliff coeffident (R2) and volume difference (Dv), are 0.87 and 0.90%,respectively. As compared with the application results over 80 basins in 25 different countries around the world, SRM performs well in the Gongnaisi River basin. The results also show that SRM can be a validated snowmelt runoff model capable of being applied in the western Tianshan Mountains.On the basis of snowmelt runoff simulation, together with a set of simplified hypothetical climate scenarios, SRM is also used to simulate the effects of climate change on snow cover and the consecutive snowmelt runoff. For a given hypothetical temperature increase of 4℃, the snow coverage and snowmelt season shift towards earlier dates, and the snowmelt runoff, as a result, is changed significantly at the same time. The simulation results show that the snow cover is sensitive to changes of climate, especially to the increase of temperature, the major effect of climate change will be a time shifting of snowmelt runoff to early spring months, resulting in a redistribution of seasonally runoff throughout the whole snowmelt season.     

气候变化对沿海重工业的影响

为了研究气候变化对沿海重工业供应系统的影响,介绍了重工业为何分布在沿海地区、气候变化的现状、可持续供应链及可持续供应链管理的定义和发展;指出了气候变化对重工企业可持续供应链的影响;阐释了为对抗气候变化而形成的监管制度,研究了重工业对监管环境变化的适应性及其承担的风险;论述了企业面对气候变化所作的回应,以及对抗气候变化的必要性和对抗战略的可行性。     

Climatic changes in the Twenty-four Solar Terms during 1960–2008

The temperature thresholds and timings of the 24 climatic Solar Terms in China are determined from a homogenized dataset of the surface air temperature recorded at 549 meteorological stations for the period 1960?C2008 employing the ensemble empirical mode decomposition method. Changes in the mean temperature and timing of the climatic solar terms are illustrated. The results show that in terms of the mean situation over China, the number of cold days such as those of Slight Cold and Great Cold has decreased, especially by 56.8% for Great Cold in the last 10 years (1998?C2007) compared with in the 1960s. The number of hot days like those of Great Heat has increased by 81.4% in the last 10 years compared with in the 1960s. The timings of the climatic Solar Terms during the warming period (around spring) in the seasonal cycle have advanced significantly by more than 6 d, especially by 15 d for Rain Water, while those during the cooling period (around autumn) have delayed significantly by 5?C6 d. These characteristics are mainly due to a warming shift of the whole seasonal cycle under global warming. However, the warming shift affects the different Solar Terms to various extents, more prominently in the spring than in the autumn. The warming tendencies for Rain Water, the Beginning of Spring, and the Waking of Insects are the largest, 2.43°C, 2.37°C, and 2.21°C, respectively, for the period 1961?C2007 in China as a whole. Four particular phenology-related climatic Solar Terms, namely the Waking of Insects, Pure Brightness, Grain Full, and Grain in Ear, are found to have advanced almost everywhere. In semi-arid zones in northern China, advances of the timings of these four climatic Solar Terms are significant, 12?C16, 4?C8, 4?C8, and 8?C12 d, respectively, for the period 1961?C2007. These quantitative results provide a scientific base for climate change adaptation, especially in terms of agricultural planning and energy-saving management throughout a year.     

Influence of mean climate change on climate variability from a 155-year tropical Pacific coral record

Today, the El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) system is the primary driver of interannual variability in global climate, but its long-term behaviour is poorly understood. Instrumental observations reveal a shift in 1976 towards warmer and wetter conditions in the tropical Pacific, with widespread climatic and ecological consequences. This shift, unique over the past century, has prompted debate over the influence of increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases on ENSO variability. Here we present a 155-year ENSO reconstruction from a central tropical Pacific coral that provides new evidence for long-term changes in the regional mean climate and its variability. A gradual transition in the early twentieth century and the abrupt change in 1976, both towards warmer and wetter conditions, co-occur with changes in variability. In the mid-late nineteenth century, cooler and drier background conditions coincided with prominent decadal variability; in the early twentieth century, shorter-period (approximately 2.9 years) variability intensified. After 1920, variability weakens and becomes focused at interannual timescales; with the shift in 1976, variability with a period of about 4 years becomes prominent. Our results suggest that variability in the tropical Pacific is linked to the region's mean climate, and that changes in both have occurred during periods of natural as well as anthropogenic climate forcing.     

适应气候变化技术识别标准研究

 适应气候变化是现阶段应对气候变化行动的重要举措。适应气候变化技术的识别标准是编制适应气候变化清单的基础, 是适应气候变化方法学的重要组成部分。本研究通过对气候变化及其影响进行分析, 明确人类所面对的气候变化问题的内涵;结合适应技术定义, 确立适应气候变化技术核心识别标准是气候变化问题的针对性, 其关键在于将技术的适应方面与常规方面区分开来。另一方面, 对比分析适应技术与减缓技术, 明确有效区分技术的减缓效果与适应效果是适应气候变化技术识别的重要标准。依托识别标准, 不但可以对不同领域、不同地域已有的适应技术进行识别筛选, 也可为未来适应气候变化技术研发提供指导, 为适应气候变化技术体系构建奠定基础。     

Atmospheric CO2 forces abrupt vegetation shifts locally, but not globally

It is possible that anthropogenic climate change will drive the Earth system into a qualitatively different state. Although different types of uncertainty limit our capacity to assess this risk, Earth system scientists are particularly concerned about tipping elements, large-scale components of the Earth system that can be switched into qualitatively different states by small perturbations. Despite growing evidence that tipping elements exist in the climate system, whether large-scale vegetation systems can tip into alternative states is poorly understood. Here we show that tropical grassland, savanna and forest ecosystems, areas large enough to have powerful impacts on the Earth system, are likely to shift to alternative states. Specifically, we show that increasing atmospheric CO2 concentration will force transitions to vegetation states characterized by higher biomass and/or woody-plant dominance. The timing of these critical transitions varies as a result of between-site variance in the rate of temperature increase, as well as a dependence on stochastic variation in fire severity and rainfall. We further show that the locations of bistable vegetation zones (zones where alternative vegetation states can exist) will shift as climate changes. We conclude that even though large-scale directional regime shifts in terrestrial ecosystems are likely, asynchrony in the timing of these shifts may serve to dampen, but not nullify, the shock that these changes may represent to the Earth system.     

从预防到适应：气候变化与民族地区生态建设的战略选择

对气候变化及生态风险的全面认识和多角度分析，构成了对民族地区气候变化及其生态建设的理论认识基础。气候变化是民族地区生态发展的双刃剑,民族地区生态建设的基本理念是在适应气候变化的基础上，积极寻找和创造条件，走出一条生态建设和社会发展的双赢之路。     

长青自然保护区及其周边地区鸟类新纪录

自2008年至今,采用固定样线和不固定样线法、专家鉴定法、鸟类招引法、红外线自动触发相机监测法对长青自然保护区及其周边地区的鸟类进行了观察。结果发现:44种属于新分布新纪录鸟类,其中留鸟14种、候鸟18种、冬候鸟8种、过境鸟3种和不详1种;长青自然保护区鸟类由251种增加到295种。初步分析了人工水体、气候变化、观鸟活动、生境恢复因素对鸟类生态分布和鸟类编目的影响,提出了加强关键鸟类研究和生境保护管理建议。     

闽中沿海雷暴初终日变化特征分析

本文应用福建省莆田、仙游、福清和崇武四站1960-2012年地面气象观测资料,统计了福建中部沿海雷暴初终日的气候变化特征,结果表明福建中部沿海初雷有明显的旬月际、年际和年代际分布,初雷最多出现在3月中旬。近50年莆田、仙游和崇武初雷经历了上个世纪60至70年代末的偏晚期和80年代至本世纪初的偏早期,近6年来出现了向偏晚期转换的趋势。终雷日期有明显的候分布,主要集中在9月1候、9月5候和10月1候,终雷的3个集中时期与西太平洋副高的第一次回跳、秋分及副高第二次回跳时间相对应。