基于数据爬虫与动态社会网络的公众环保行为演化研究

本文运用数据爬虫技术与社会网络分析方法对一个豆瓣公众环境保护小组的信息交互及相应的动态社会网络演化过程进行刻画,并在基于计划行为理论的绿色出行行为意愿模型的基础上:对嵌入在动态社会网络中的公众环保行为演化规律进行了研究.结果表明:在公众环境保护小组的社会网络形成过程中,社会网络的拓扑结构由最初的小世界网络特征迅速演变成为无标度网络特征;降低社会网络中行为主体的信息交互阈值、公众环保信息的差异程度、行为主体的易受影响程度将有利于公众环保豆瓣小组社会网络中信息的有效传播,行为主体对于公众环保信息的掌握与认知将能演化达到更加理想的状态,也将有利于促进公众环保行为的推广.     

基于消费者信任关系的在线口碑信息传播模型

在社会化媒体环境下，研究信任关系对在线口碑传播过程的影响，有助于企业制定合理的营销策略控制口碑传播。以社会关系强度刻画消费者之间的信任度，考虑社会强化现象及消费者兴趣转移现象；以SIR传染病模型为基础，构建基于信任关系的连续时间马尔科夫在线口碑传播模型。通过数值实验，分析了不同网络结构下信任关系对在线口碑传播的影响。实验结果显示：信任度的提升可显著促进在线口碑传播，当社区存在交叠时，社区信任度的促进作用增强，而社会信任度作用则减弱；另外，相比于社区内部信任，提升陌生人之间的信任促进作用更强，尤其是当网络社区结构一般或较弱时，且此时高影响力用户可在控制口碑传播过程中发挥更大作用。     

时序网络视角下网络舆情的演化模型研究

随着对社交媒体的研究深入,平台用户之间的社会关系网络为动态的时序网络逐步得到认同。为了对比并分析时序网络下舆情扩散的过程和结果,采用计算机仿真的分析方法,通过构建时序网络,并采用SIR模型作为舆情扩散的信息扩散模型。多智能体仿真结果表明,舆情扩散结果的不确定性一方面来自于时序网络的复杂网络结构和信息扩散模型,而另一方面则是源于将用户之间的社会关系网络看作是静态网络。通过参数分析确定了提高舆情扩散的思路和方向。     

Orientation in social networks

Stanley Milgram’s small world experiment presents “six degrees of separation” of our world. One phenomenon of the experiment still puzzling us is that how individuals operating with the social network information with their characteristics can be very adept at finding the short chains. The previous works on this issue focus whether on the methods of navigation in a given network structure, or on the effects of additional information to the searching process. In this paper, the authors emphasize that the growth and shape of network architecture is tightly related to the individuals’ attributes. The authors introduce a method to reconstruct nodes’ intimacy degree based on local interaction. Then we provide an intimacy based approach for orientation in networks. The authors find that the basic reason of efficient search in social networks is that the degree of “intimacy” of each pair of nodes decays with the length of their shortest path exponentially. Meanwhile, the model can explain the hubs limitation which was observed in real-world experiment.     

双层社会网络上的舆情传播动力学分析

本文构建了由线上社交网络和线下物理接触网络构成的双层社会网络模型,通过理论分析计算出稳态时的舆情传播者比例,得到双层社会网络上的舆情传播阈值大于单层线上网络舆情传播阈值,而小于单层线下网络舆情传播阈值.仿真实验结果表明,在线社交网络能够扩大舆情传播范围、加快舆情传播速度.各层子网的传播率对另一层网络中传播者比例几乎没有影响.此外,来自于线下网络的传播者转移率对舆情传播过程的影响作用小于来自于线上网络的传播者转移率.     

The Vanguard Method as Applied to the Design and Management of English and Welsh Children’s Services Departments

This paper follows several case studies where the children’s services departments of English and Welsh local authorities have fundamentally redesigned the way they worked following the application of the Vanguard Method (Seddon, Systems thinking in the public sector, 2008), a particular form of systems thinking. After first studying the way the children’s social care service worked as a system, the social workers in these authorities were able to demonstrate the way that government-prescribed IT and performance measures were restricting the way they could do what was shown to matter to the children in their care. The paper will document how, after being granted ministerial permission to suspend the use of their old performance measures and IT, a new set of operating principles was developed and employed. The redesigned system has shown encouraging early results. Evidence from these case studies (following Yin 2009) is presented in the form of recorded operational improvements and statements from participants. The paper will be of topical relevance to all involved in social care in the light of the government-commissioned Munro Review (Munro, The Munro Review of child protection: final report, 2011). The issues discussed will also be germane to the many other public sector partner agencies involved in the delivery of social care services (e.g. police, health, housing associations).     

基于区域毁伤的基础设施网络抗毁性评估模型

基础设施网络对国家经济、人民生活和社会安全具有重要意义,为了能够准确迅速地评估基础设施网络面对物理攻击或自然灾害时的抗毁性,提出了基于区域毁伤的基础设施网络抗毁性评估模型。该模型将网络的边均分成虚拟节点,提出加权聚类算法寻找关键区域,使用归一化方法平衡网络规模和网络地理覆盖范围对评估结果的影响,算法复杂度低,运算量小,模型应用范围广,便于多个网络之间或同一网络不同规划方案的抗毁性比较。以智利电力输送网络为例,设计多组实验对评估模型进行检验,并给出可视化结果和分析。     

一种复杂网络中社团划分的新算法

为了寻找复杂网络中的社团结构,本文基于社团的核的定义和一些定量条件,提出一种新的寻找复杂网络中社团结构的算法。该算法的基本思想是首先构建社团的核心,然后寻找它的邻居的集合,把满足定量条件的邻居节点添加到该核心中,直到没有节点满足定量条件。重复这个过程找出网络中其它所有的社团。最后,通过Zachary和Dolphin social network两个经典网络验证了该算法的有效性。     

Agent-Based Simulation of Rumor Propagation on Social Network Based on Active Immune Mechanism

To simulate the rumor propagation process on online social network during emergency, a new rumor propagation model was built based on active immune mechanism. The rumor propagation mechanisms were analyzed and corresponding parameters were defined. BA scale free network and NW small world network that can be used for representing the online social network structure were constructed and their characteristics were compared. Agent-based simulations were conducted on both networks and results show that BA scale free network is more conductive to spreading rumors and it can facilitate the rumor refutation process at the same time. Rumors paid attention to by more people is likely to spread quicker and broader but for which the rumor refutation process will be more effective. The model provides a useful tool for understanding and predicting the rumor propagation process on online social network during emergency, providing useful instructions for rumor propagation intervention.     

多层同步网络在舆情仿真研究中的应用

为统筹考虑线上社交网络与线下社交网络在舆情传播中的作用,首次提出了一种包含"媒体层-线上层-线下层"的多层同步网络模型,并在此基础上搭建了舆情仿真系统框架.基于对人类社交网络拓扑结构的已有研究成果,给出了多层同步网络的缺省设定.通过案例仿真,分析了线上网络与线下网络之间的相互影响,对比了舆情事件目击者数量在多媒体传播、自媒体传播这两种舆论传播模式中的作用差异.最后,讨论了多层同步网络模型的兼容性与可扩展性,并指出了该模型改进的方向.     

社会网络环境下基于群体一致性的概率语言多属性大群体决策方法

针对社会网络环境下,决策者的偏好表达为概率语言信息的多属性大群体决策问题,提出一种新的、基于群体一致性的概率语言多属性大群体决策方法。首先,针对现实决策中存在决策者隶属于多个社区集群参与决策的情况,提出社区子模块隶属度的概念并对其进行预处理;其次,通过改进Louvain社区探测算法对群体决策者进行聚类分析;然后,将最大共识序列挖掘算法拓展至概率语言多属性群决策领域,提出一种基于群体一致性的共识测度方法及共识达成模型;最后,通过算例验证本文方法的有效性,并进行对比分析说明本文方法的合理性及优势。     

基于网络闭包理论的交易型社区网络演化研究

随着社会化商务时代的到来,交易型社区的发展越来越成为解决社会化商务中经济性与社会性矛盾的关键.但交易型社区与传统社交社区在成员角色和动机上的差异性也导致其网络演化的特殊性.本研究以国内最大的交易型网站(淘宝网)为平台,选取其中最活跃的圈子社区之一(共7902名会员,有效样本为6195名会员)为研究对象,分析交易型社区网络闭包机制相对于传统社交网络闭包机制的差异性.研究结果表明:(1)由于互惠关系的形成可能需要较高的交互成本并带来关系依赖和关系无效率的风险,交易型社区中成员会回避互惠关系的形成;(2)在一个主要由陌生人组成的交易型社区的模糊情境下,信息性社会影响起着主要作用,信息源的传播路径越多一方面加强了信息源的传染性,但另一方面也降低了该信息源的必要性而不利于其他成员与其构建关系;(3)交易型社区网络闭包(关系构建)的主要动力来源于成员间的相似性(选择性影响),具体表现在共同的社区好友和共同参与的社区活动上.     

A New K-Shell Decomposition Method for Identifying Influential Spreaders of Epidemics on Community Networks

An efficient method for the identification of influential spreaders that could be used to control epidemics within populations would be of considerable importance. Generally, populations are characterized by its community structures and by the heterogeneous distributions of out-leaving links among nodes bridging over communities. A new method for community networks capable of identifying influential spreaders that accelerate the spread of disease is here proposed. In this method, influential spreaders serve as target nodes. This is based on the idea that, in k-shell decomposition method,out-leaving links and inner links are processed separately. The method was used on empirical networks constructed from online social networks, and results indicated that this method is more accurate. Its effectiveness stems from the patterns of connectivity among neighbors, and it successfully identified the important nodes. In addition, the performance of the method remained robust even when there were errors in the structure of the network.     

Exploring on-line societal risk perception for harmonious society measurement

The nearly 30-year economic growth miracle brings the consequent tremendous poor-rich gap leading strong drives for social transformation in current China. Chinese top leaders have realized to increase the peoples＇ income, improve quality of life and construct a ＂harmonious society＂ as key missions especially in recent 10 years. How to measure a harmonious society is one important topic as different measures may lead to different development policies. This paper outlines over 10 indices relevant to measure a harmonious society. Some are global indicators, while some are contributed by domestic researchers and arouse debates. Most of those indicators require conducting surveys on social attitudes under micro levels, which is always time consuming with problem of data quality. As Internet technology advances provide ways to record and disseminate fresh community ideas and thoughts conveniently, detecting topics or emotions from on-line public opinions is becoming a trend or one supplement way to overcome those data acquisition problems. This paper discusses one approach to on-line societal risk perception using hot search words and BBS posts. Such a trial aims to provide another way to societal risk perception different from those in traditional socio psychology studies. Challenges are also indicated.     

基于用户相对权重的在线社交网络舆情传播控制模型

在线社交网络(online social networks,OSN)中舆情传播干预时机的选择对网络舆情的管控具有重要意义.通过分析用户的网络地位、社会强化效应与用户感知价值等影响网络舆情传播控制的关键因素,以研究舆情管控的合理干预时机为目的,构建了基于用户相对权重的网络舆情传播控制模型.基于该模型,针对两类OSN开展仿真研究.研究发现,网络舆情传播与信息初始传播源的网络地位密切相关;在开放式OSN中,存在与干预时机选择关系密切的关键相变点;用户活跃度随社会强化效应强度的增大而下降,随干预时机的提前而降低,并存在有效干预时机区间;"悖民意"成本是干预时机选择的重要衡量指标.并据此,提出了相应现实干预时机选择的对策建议.     

金融危机对中国证券网络影响的实证研究

以金融危机前和金融危机下两个不同时期对中国证券网络影响进行了实证研究。结果表明:沪深300证券网络权重分布在危机前后并没有太大变化,但在后金融危机时期,股价波动相关系数主要分布在弱相关区域。影响因子的分布是由危机前的普遍偏大变为危机后的普遍偏小。利用最大生成树所构建的中国证券网络和美国S&P500证券网络在金融危机时期网络层次均变得紧凑;度分布涌现出个别度值很大的Hub节点。沪深300相关性网络的最大社团中行业覆盖面较广,一些有利害关系的产业出现在同一社团中;且危机后的最大社团形态与S&P 500经济平稳时较为相似。     

Intersections of Critical Systems Thinking and Community Based Participatory Research: A Learning Organization Example with the Autistic Community

Critical systems thinking (CST) and community based participatory research (CBPR) are distinct approaches to inquiry which share a primary commitment to holism and human emancipation, as well as common grounding in critical theory and emancipatory and pragmatic philosophy. This paper explores their intersections and complements on a historical, philosophical, and theoretical level, and then proposes a hybrid approach achieved by applying CBPR’s principles and considerations for operationalizing emancipatory practice to traditional systems thinking frameworks and practices. This hybrid approach is illustrated in practice with examples drawn from of the implementation of the learning organization model in an action research setting with the Autistic community. Our experience of being able to actively attend to, and continuously equalize, power relations within an organizational framework that otherwise has great potential for reinforcing power inequity suggests CBPR’s principles and considerations for operationalizing emancipatory practice could be useful in CST settings, and CST’s vocabulary, methods, and clarity around systems thinking concepts could be valuable to CBPR practitioners.     

You are Seldom Born with a Drum Kit in Your Hands: Music Teachers’ Conceptualizations of Knowledge and Learning Within Music Education as an Assessment Practice

Due to an increased demand for evaluation and accountability, the focus on assessment in public education has become stronger. Already leading to teachers’ deprofessionalization, another risk is assessment leading to criteria compliance and becoming a tool for measuring teaching quality. Those whose learning is affected are thereby not only students, but also teachers. One major factor to restore professionalism and focus assessment on learning is to change practitioners’ ways of thinking and not only their behaviour. Therefore, a group of seven music teachers and a researcher in music education have carried out a research and development project using participatory action research as approach as well as method. This article explores and presents these upper secondary school music teachers’ conceptualizations of musical knowledge, learning and educational communication working with peers. Using Deweyan pragmatism as a lens to interpret the qualitative data, the results show that while a professional language does exist, the music teachers’ conceptualizations of musical knowledge and learning and educational approaches differ. A key aspect for the teachers to develop their professional language, concepts and assessment practices is the teachers’ opportunities to communicate—both factual as well as perceived.     

面向体系贡献率的装备体系评估方法研究综述

面向体系贡献率,总结了武器装备体系贡献率评估的研究现状并分析了研究的技术难点,对基于作战环、复杂网络、证据推理、灰靶理论、贝叶斯网络、结构方程模型、探索性分析等目前用于评估武器装备体系贡献率的方法进行了综述,对比分析了不同评估方法的优缺点。从装备体系构成及贡献率评估特点出发,采用基于作战环和复杂网络的武器装备体系评估方法,能够全面反映装备在体系作战中的各类关系,支持从体系的角度对武器装备的贡献率进行多维度评估,更能贴近评估装备对于体系贡献的衡量。