季节性变动影响下的上海港集装箱吞吐量预测

港口吞吐量精准预测对于每一个港口的成功经营和有效决策都十分重要.季节性波动经常会影响港口吞吐量,为了更为准确地预测上海港口集装箱吞吐量,本文选取2007年至2012年上海港母港集装箱吞吐量的月度数据,并对于港口集装箱吞吐量的月度数据中出现的季节性波动进行了处理,采用季节时间序列模型对其进行预测.为了说明方法的有效性,以同样的数据,使用整自回归移动平均模型对上海港集装箱吞吐量进行预测.两种方法预测结果进行对比发现,利用季节时间序列模型对港口集装箱吞吐量季节性进行处理,能够提高港口集装箱吞吐量的预测精度.     

改进型BP神经网络的港口吞吐量预测

为了提高港口吞吐量预测模型的适用性,满足港口决策的需求,对传统时间序列BP神经网络预测模型进行改进,将未来三年的吞吐量作为输出层参数,以tansig函数和logsig函数为传递函数,建立了改进型时间序列BP神经网络预测模型,利用trainlm函数训练神经网络,预测未来三年的港口吞吐量。对深圳港集装箱吞吐量进行了预测,结果表明,改进型时间序列BP神经网络模型泛化能力更强,拟合精度更高,且避免了传统预测模型循环预测产生的误差叠加,具有较好的适用性。     

集装箱港口吞吐量线性回归模型

讨论了我国集装箱港口吞吐量与我国国民生产总值、对外贸易额、港口固定资产投资及利率之间的关系．其相关性研究是基于线性回归模型的建立，搜集、整理了过去16年各观测值，用SPSS软件计算得出的．结果说明，集装箱港口吞吐量与对外贸易额、港口固定资产投资正相关，与国民生产总值、利率负相关，和国际上流行的集装箱港口吞吐量发展理论相悖．这一发现对我国集装箱港口建设提供了理论决策依据．     

2014 年全球Top20 集装箱港口预测

海上运输承担着全球80% 以上的货物贸易运输,而集装箱化是大势所趋.因此,集装箱运输业的景气程度是世界经济与贸易发展的晴雨表,集装箱运输业的吞吐量增长情况直接体现着世界贸易的繁荣与发展.集装箱吞吐量预测可以支持政策制定者把握世界经济走势,跟踪经济波动的传导.同时,可以帮助管理部门和企业了解港口发展周期,把握港口发展趋势,科学制定港口发展战略,合理分配港口建设资源,促进当地经济社会发展.本研究基于TEI@I 方法论,对2014 年全球Top20 港口集装箱吞吐量进行了预测,进一步得到相关结论,并分析了2014 年全球各区域港口集装箱吞吐量的增长特点.     

长江外贸集装箱运量预测和码头装卸工艺优选

本文利用新陈代谢ＧＭ（１，１）模型、二次指数滑动平均法、计量经济学模型３种预测模型对上海港进行了外贸集装箱吞吐量的预测，并结合考虑长江各主要港口在共同航线上的运量分配及航线运量占该港吞吐量的比重，对各港口进行了外贸集装箱吞吐量和主要航线运量预测。然后，运用多目标决策理论中的线性分配法与层次分析法，分析了不同运量水平下港口装卸工艺系统的优选问题，并利用外贸集装箱的预测结果，得到了这些港口装卸工艺的优     

基于遗传规划方法的集装箱吞吐量预测

在对现有各种预测方法进行简要回顾的基础上，对遗传规划方法进行了研究，提出了应用于集装箱吞吐量预测的计算模型和相关参数的确定方法，并完成了算法设计和编程工作。在此基础上，以宁波港集装箱吞吐量的历史数据为样本，开展了预测计算试验，找到了能够反映宁波港目前集装箱吞吐量发展规律的样本集，并对宁波港未来九年的集装箱吞吐量进行了预报。结果表明，本算法合理、改良自动化程度高，为解决集装箱吞吐量等非线性系统预测提供了一条新的途径。     

船公司在新港口上的空箱分配策略

针对航运公司在新开发港口的集装箱空箱的分配问题进行研究,基于与新港口运输情况相似的已有港口的历年吞吐量,采用数据回归分析方法建立了新港口集装箱预测分配模型,利用MATLAB线性规划求解方法对模型进行求解分析,预测新港口未来的集装箱吞吐量,最后基于预测量与分析结果设计新港口的空箱分配策略。模型计算表明航运公司应在新港口自购箱126 210 TEU,长租箱10 090 TEU,且一次租赁10年,才能使得花费在新港口集装箱上的费用最小。通过分析发现在融资能力允许的情况下,自购箱是航运公司第一首选,但结合现实情况,自购箱和租箱混合才是基本策略。所提出的空箱分配策略及预测分配模型可供从事集装箱运输的航运公司参考。     

THE PATTERN, FUNCTION AND DEVELOPMENT OF THE LOWER CHANGJIANG RIVER CONTAINER PORT SYSTEM

旨在探讨长江下游集装箱港口体系的基本格局、功能结构与发展特征．文章首先阐述了全球集装箱运输的基本格局和长江下游集装箱港口体系的发展现状;然后通过对该集装箱港口体系的流量、流向结构分析,认为现阶段该港口体系仍属东亚一些大型远洋集装箱枢纽港口的支线港群,体系内部的职能分工机制开始发育,但尚不完善;最后采用系统动力学模型对长江下游集装箱港口体系的集装箱吞吐量进行了预测,预测结果表明,该集装箱港口体系的发展现状远不适应形势发展的需要,未来该港口体系将形成以上海港为中心枢纽港、江苏四港为干线喂给港的相互协调、功能互补的远洋集装箱枢纽港群     

基于灰靶模型的港口效率评价

选取泊位长度、码头面积、码头CFS、吊桥数量以及集装箱吞吐量5个集装箱港口绩效指标,选择中国实力相当的6个集装箱港口进行灰理论的靶心度分析,并以此进行评价排序.该方法有效解决以往研究中无法有效评价小样本、多指标的港口效率评价问题,而且该方法具有计算简便的优良特性.为港口在短时间内了解自身处境、制定发展战略提供依据.     

基于数据包络分析的集装箱港口绩效评价

从经济学的角度,提出了集装箱港口效率的内涵及其重要性,通过引入数据包络分析(DEA)模型并加以改进,选取集装箱港口的泊位长度、桥吊数量、集装箱吞吐量等作为输入／输出指标,从定量的角度研究集装箱港口的效率,以我国主要集装箱港口为例进行实证分析,测算出8大集装箱港口的相对效率,在对结果进行初步分析的基础上,提出了大连港集装箱发展的建议．     

Markedness and its Interpretation in Language Use

Language markedness is a common phenomenon in languages, and is reflected from hearing, vision and sense, i.e. the variation in the three aspects such as phonology, morphology and semantics. This paper focuses on the interpretation of markedness in language use following the three perspectives, i.e. pragmatic interpretation, psychological interpretation and cognitive interpretation, with an aim to define the function of markedness.     

Features of Women's language

Language is a means of verbal communication. People use language to communicate with each other. In the society, no two speakers are exactly alike in the way of speaking. Some differences are due to age, gender, statue and personality. Above all, gender is one of the obvious reasons. The writer of this paper tries to describe the features of women＇s language from these perspectives： pronunciation, intonation, diction, subjects, grammar and discourse. From the discussion of the features of women＇s language, more attention should be paid to language use in social context. What＇s more, the linguistic phenomena in a speaking community can be understood more thoroughly.     

低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度研究

理论推导与室内实验相结合,建立了低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度确定方法。首先借助油藏流场与电场相似的原理,推导了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度计算公式。其次基于稳定流实验方法,建立了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度测试方法。结果表明:低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的启动压力梯度确定遵循两个等效原则。平面非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各级渗透率段的启动压力梯度关于长度的加权平均;纵向非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各渗透率层的启动压力梯度关于渗透率与渗流面积乘积的加权平均。研究成果可用于有效指导低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的合理井距确定,促进该类油藏的高效开发。     

On Tragic Consciousness In The Works By Ernest Hemingway

As an American modern novelist who were famous in the literary world, Hemingway was not a person who always followed the trend but a sharp observer. At the same time, he was a tragedy maestro, he paid great attention on existence, fate and end-result. The dramatis personae's tragedy of his works was an extreme limit by all means tragedy on the meaning of fearless challenge that failed. The beauty of tragedy was not produced on the destruction of life, but now this kind of value was in the impact activity. They performed for the reader about the tragedy on challenging for the limit and the death.     

Achieving Unusual States of Matter Under High Pressure

正The periodicity of the elements and the non-reactivity of the inner-shell electrons are two related principles of chemistry,rooted in the atomic shell structure.Within compounds,Group I elements,for example,invariably assume the+1 oxidation state,and their chemical properties differ completely from those of the p-block elements.These general rules govern our understanding of chemical structures and reactions.Using first principles calcula-     

Exchange-Correlation and Electronic Excitation Energies from Pairing Matrix Fluctuations

We have developed an adiabatic connection to formulate the ground-state exchange-correlation energy in terms of pairing matrix linear fluctuations.This formulation of the exchange-correlation energy opens a new channel for density functional approximations based on the many-body perturbation theory.We illustrate the potential of such approaches with an approximation based on the particle-particle Random Phase Approximation(pp-RPA).This re-     

Density Functional Theory for the Response of Periodic Systems to Electric Fields Based on the Vector Potential Approach

正The electronic and nuclear(structural/vibrational)response of 1D-3D nanoscale systems to electric fields gives rise to a host of optical,mechanical,spectral,etc.properties that are of high theoretical and applied interest.Due to the computational difficulty of treating such large systems it is convenient to model them as infinite and periodic(at least,in first approximation).The fundamental theoretical/computational problem in doing so is that     

On the Thermodynamic Limit for Responses to Static Electromagnetic Fields

For molecular systems,the quantum-mechanical treatment of their responses to static electromagnetic fields usually employs a scalar-potential treatment of the electric field and a vector-potential treatment of the magnetic field.Although the potential for each field separately is associated with the choice of an(unphysical)origin,the precise choice of the origin for the electrostatic field has little consequences for the results.This is different for the     

Call for Papers

<正>"The Journal of Shanghai Normal University:Mathematics"is published by Shanghai Normal University as regular issues of The Journal of Shanghai Normal University each year from 2014 in English.The editors-in-chief of the issues are professors Yuhao Cong and Maoan Han.The Journal of Shanghai Normal University was started in 1958 with     

Journal of Donghua University ( English Edition) Contents of Volume 31

正~~