Analysis and forecasting of income statement account balances the dynamic interdependency and ARIMA approaches

This paper develops a dynamic simultaneous-equations model for analyzing and forecasting the account balances in the income statement of a firm. In the model, the income statement accounts play the role of the dependent variables that are jointly determined and explained by three types of exogenous variables: non-controllable, performance, and controllable. The model is estimated by the three-stage least-squares method using annual series of data for six firms during the period from 1936 or 1950 to 1981. The immediate, delayed, and cumulated impacts of an exogenous shock on the income accounts are analyzed and the implications for managerial decisions and strategies discussed. To run as a standard of comparison for the dynamic interdependency model, the Box-Jenkins approach is also used to develop an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for each of the accounts. Assessing the forecasting performance of the dynamic model against a naive model and the ARIMA and Elliott-Uphoff models for the 1982-4 period beyond the estimation period, we conclude that the dynamic model is a better representation of income statement accounts of the firm and increases forecasting accuracy.     

Nonlinearities in the CAPM: Evidence from Developed and Emerging Markets

This paper examines the forecasting ability of the nonlinear specifications of the market model. We propose a conditional two‐moment market model with a time‐varying systematic covariance (beta) risk in the form of a mean reverting process of the state‐space model via the Kalman filter algorithm. In addition, we account for the systematic component of co‐skewness and co‐kurtosis by considering higher moments. The analysis is implemented using data from the stock indices of several developed and emerging stock markets. The empirical findings favour the time‐varying market model approaches, which outperform linear model specifications both in terms of model fit and predictability. Precisely, higher moments are necessary for datasets that involve structural changes and/or market inefficiencies which are common in most of the emerging stock markets. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

芬兰经济技术的跨越式发展及其启迪

本文通过对芬兰的实地考察和长期跟踪研究。比较深入地分析了芬兰经济技术实现跨越式发展的过程，研究总结了芬兰实行的经济政策和技术政策，指出了芬兰经济技术实现跨越式发展的模式，以及对后进国家发展经济技术的一些的启迪。     

Possible biological effects of electric and magnetic parameters in the environment

The features and intensities of electric and magnetic fields in the environment are described. Natural as well as technical constant and variable fields are considered in the light of their possible biological effects. The upper limits of the various fields are discussed. Results of laboratory measurements and also of epidemiological investigations are presented. The question is raised whether atmospheric small ions can cause a biological effect.     

高校产学研一体化发展的实践与前瞻

本文探讨我国高校产学研一体化发展的必要性、可行性及其前景。从人类社会发展的历史特点入手，并借鉴了美国硅谷发展的经验和我国改革开放推进社会主义市场发展的需求，对高校产学研一体化发展的道路作了论述。针对目前高校产学研一体化中存在的问题，作者提出了加速高校产学研一体化发展的四条建议：1，高校产学研一体化发展必须转变观念，积极参与社会大循环；2，推进高校产学研一体化要有过硬的产品和准确的市场定位；3，高校产学研一体化发展要依托高科技园区，切实解决经费投入问题；4，高校产学研一体化发展要突出以人为本的思想，努力造就发明家和企业家。     

Limited proteolysis of lactate dehydrogenase from procine heart with trypsin: Characterization and reactivation of the fragments

Summary The ternary complex formed by native lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) from porcine heart, NAD⁺ and sulfite, was digested with trypsin over a period of 12–16 h³. After removal of the ligands and residual native lactate dehydrogenase by ion exchange chromatography dimers were obtained which were almost inactive. The dimers were lacking a hexapeptide at the N-terminus; however, the secondary structure was the same as that of native lactate dehydrogenase. The circular dichroism spectra showed a dependence on temperature which suggested an equilibrium of two different structural states.The reaction of antibodies against native porcine heart LDH with the dimers restored the catalytic activity, and subsequently the dimers behaved similarly to the native enzyme. Addition of 1 M phosphate or NAD-sulfite to the dimers restored 80–90% of the catalytic activity. It could be demonstrated that the behaviour of the reactivated dimers, in contrast to that of the inactive dimers, was similar to the behaviour of native lactate dehydrogenase. For instance, ultracentrifugal analysis showed that dimers reactivated with NAD–SO₃ ^– were associated to give tetramers.The reaction of antibodies against native LDH with the dimers reactivated with NAD–SO ₃ ^– demonstrated that the native LDH and the dimers have the same surface determinants.     

A comparative evaluation of objective and subjective weather forecasts in the united states

This paper is concerned primarily with the evaluation and comparison of objective and subjective weather forecasts. Operational forecasts of three weather elements are considered: (1) probability forecasts of precipitation occurrence, (2) categorical (i.e. non-probabilistic) forecasts of maximum and minimum temperatures and (3) categorical forecasts of cloud amount. The objective forecasts are prepared by numerical-statistical procedures, whereas the subjective forecasts are based on the judgements of individual forecasters. In formulating the latter, the forecasters consult information from a variety of sources, including the objective forecasts themselves. The precipitation probability forecasts are found to be both reliable and skilful, and evaluation of the temperature/cloud amount forecasts reveals that they are quite accurate/skilful. Comparison of the objective and subjective forecasts of precipitation occurrence indicates that the latter are generally more skilful than the former for shorter lead times (e.g. 12–24 hours), whereas the two types of forecasts are of approximately equal skill for longer lead times (e.g. 36–48 hours). Similar results are obtained for the maximum and minimum temperature forecasts. Objective cloud amount forecasts are more skilful than subjective cloud amount forecasts for all lead times. Examination of trends in performance over the last decade reveals that both types of forecasts for all three elements increased in skill (or accuracy) over the period, with improvements in objective forecasts equalling or exceeding improvements in subjective forecasts. The role and impact of the objective forecasts in the subjective weather forecasting process are discussed in some detail. The need to conduct controlled experiments and other studies of this process, with particular reference to the assimilation of information from different sources, is emphasized. Important characteristics of the forecasting system in meteorology are identified, and they are used to describe similarities and differences between weather forecasting and forecasting in other fields. Acquisition of some of these characteristics may be beneficial to other forecasting systems.     

台湾地区SCI论文数在世界中所处的位置及统计分析

台湾的科技发展得到了世界越来越多的关注,本文通过SCI收录台湾地区的科技论文,从发表机构、学科、参考文献以及台湾地区科技论文的被引用等情况,介绍台湾地区的科技论文产出情况,以便了解台湾地区在世界科技中的地位和影响。     

Arresting the mitotic oscillator and the control of cell proliferation: insights from a cascade model for cdc2 kinase activation

We consider a minimal cascade model previously proposed¹¹ for the mitotic oscillator driving the embryonic cell division cycle. The model is based on a bicyclic phosphorylation-dephosphorylation cascade involving cyclin and cdc2 kinase. By constructing stability diagrams showing domains of periodic behavior as a function of the maximum rates of the kinases and phosphatases involved in the two cycles of the cascade, we investigate the role of these converter enzymes in the oscillatory mechanism. Oscillations occur when the balance of kinase and phosphatase rates in each cycle is in a range bounded by two critical values. The results suggest ways to arrest the mitotic oscillator by altering the maximum rates of the converter enzymes. These results bear on the control of cell proliferation.