A demographic statistics service for the 21st century

This article provides a summary of a review of the uses made of population and household statistics across government in England and Wales, setting out the policy and statistical impacts of demographic change. It looks at the broad span of government uses of population and household statistics--and what these uses imply for the qualities inherent in these statistics. The article considers alternative population definitions and refers to several ongoing projects that are aiming to enhance demographic statistics in England and Wales. Following an analysis of the key issues relating to the implementation of an improved statistical service, a series of action points for ONS emerging from the review is set out.     

人口政策对老龄化的影响预测--基于出生侧和死亡侧模型分析

人口老龄化是当前我国面临的关键性问题之一,本文在增长理论的框架下研究了人口老龄化对经济增长以及人力资本积累的影响.通过引入人力资本,本文建立老龄经济模型并分别从"出生侧"和"死亡侧"的角度对人口规模和人口结构变化的内在机制进行研究,并对老龄化以及三种政策的影响进行了数值模拟预测.理论分析和数值模拟预测的结果显示:新生人口增长率的下降以及代表性个体的预期寿命延长都将导致或加深人口老龄化问题;开放二胎等鼓励生育政策虽在短期内能够缓解人口老龄化问题,但对人均产出可能存在负面影响,从长期来说将不利于人力资本的积累;延迟退休政策在长期内将增加经济体的人力资本积累、人均产出及人均消费,提高教育质量亦存在积极的长期效应.     

Perceptions of Pediatric Nurses on Ethical Decision Making Processes

The purpose of this study was to determine how pediatric nurses decide on ethical issues in sample cases and how they evaluate those issues in terms of ethical principles, as well as to determine the problem-solving approaches that they recommend in this regard. Qualitative methods were used in this study and the data was collected from 100 pediatric nurses using a demographic data form and an open-ended questionnaire. The demographic data form included questions about the characteristics of nurses and their participation in decisions made about ethical issues. Whereas the open-ended questionnaire consisted of questions regarding sample cases, which were developed by the investigators using current literature. Forty-four percent of the pediatric nurses reported an attempt to solve ethical issues that they encountered through their professional experiences using personal values. On the other hand, 53 % of the pediatric nurses stated that their decisions were sometimes taken into consideration in the treatment plan of their own patients, while 49 % reported that they could not participate in decision-making regarding patients’ discharge. Seventy-six percent of the pediatric nurses did not define the ethical issues in the three sample cases. However, in other cases, most of the nurses evaluated ethical issues correctly and recommended correct approaches. No statistically significant difference was found between their educational backgrounds, professional experiences, the ethical issues that they evaluated, and the approaches recommended for problem solving. It is recommended that nurses receive more undergraduate and in-service ethics training in order to develop appropriate approaches toward the ethical issues they will encounter during their professional lives.     

The changing demographic picture of the UK: national statistician's annual article on the population

The population of the UK is currently growing at its fastest rate since the 1960s, increasing by two and a half per cent between mid-2001 and mid-2006. While life expectancy continues to increase, fertility rates have also been increasing in the last five years and are currently at their highest level since 1980. In addition, international migration has led to the UK population growing by an average of 500 people per day over the last five years. The population is also becoming increasingly diverse and mobile, and these factors make it increasingly challenging to measure population change accurately. This is the first of a series of annual reports on the population of the UK; these reports will provide an overview of the latest statistics on the population and will also focus on one specific topic - for this report the topic is fertility and, in particular, the impact of migration on fertility, but different topics will be covered in future years. The reports will also highlight the key strands of work being taken forward within the National Statistics Centre for Demography in order to improve UK population statistics. More detailed information on the populations of Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland are available in the annual demographic reports produced by the respective devolved administrations.'     

Demographic issues in 1975 and 2000

This article explores the demographic subjects which were topical 25 years ago and compares them with those of current interest, as reflected not only by the articles published in the early, and most recent issues of Population Trends, but also by papers of the period in other demographic journals.     

Key issues in the quality assurance of the One Number Census

As part of the 2001 Census, the One Number Census project estimated and adjusted the Census database for underenumeration. As a result of the highly innovative One Number Census and the Quality Assurance process it encompassed, it was also ensured that robust results could be obtained for each local authority area. This article examines some of the issues and analyses that were undertaken as part of that assessment of the 2001 Census population counts for England and Wales. The article firstly highlights the key issues surrounding the implementation of the 2001 Census fieldwork. The article then explores the 2001 Census results through a series of demographic analyses to illustrate the sorts of issues investigated during the One Number Census Quality Assurance process itself. These analyses look at the patterns contained within the results, and comparisons with key alternative sources of population counts. Overall, these in-depth analyses and investigations provide further credence to the plausibility of the One Number Census results.     

Demographic data for Europe--a review of sources

Population Trends had provided an overview of European and world demographic issues since its inception in 1975. This article covers the abundant sources of demographic data on all European countries with information on their availability in printed and electronic formats.     

基于合理膳食结构的2020-2050年我国食物用粮需求测算

测算我国未来粮食需求量是制定我国粮食安全相关政策措施的基础.目前我国城镇化水平加快,老龄化问题突出,完全二孩生育政策刚刚实施,正处于人口结构转型的关键期,而人口结构变动直接影响食物用粮需求.本文从满足居民营养健康标准的食物需求视角下,考虑人口年龄、性别和城乡结构,采用标准人消费系数法,测算了单独二孩政策、完全二孩政策和完全放开生育政策情景下2020-2050年我国食物用粮（包括口粮与饲料粮）的需求,并进行对比分析.结果表明：在完全二孩政策情景下,我国食物用粮需求将在2030年达到峰值39263.1万吨,比通常采用人均方法的计算结果低10061.0万吨;因城镇化率的提高将使2020、2030与2050年食物用粮需求分别增加约406.7万吨、1142.5万吨与1553.8万吨;生育政策调整所带来的人口规模与结构变化并不是2020-2050年我国粮食安全的主要影响因素.建议积极引导和鼓励生育,在适当时间进一步完全放开生育;同时采取有效措施将粮食损耗与浪费降到最低.     

Immigration, emigration and the ageing of the overseas-born population in the United Kingdom

This article uses data from the 1971 and 2001 Censuses, the 1999-2003 Labour Force Survey and the 1977 to 2002 International Passenger Survey to investigate the migration processes contributing to the age structure and ageing of the UK's overseas-born population. Overall almost half of recent decades' immigrants to the UK emigrate again within five years of arrival, but with large variation by overseas country of birth. Between half and two thirds of the immigrants born in the continental European Union, North America and Oceania emigrate again within five years, while 15 per cent of those born in the Indian subcontinent do so. Significant cumulative emigration more than five years after arrival is seen among earlier immigrants from the Indian subcontinent, the Caribbean Commonwealth and Europe. Large country-of-origin variations in the ratio of pension-age population to working-age population primarily reflect the country composition of immigration streams 30 or more years before.     

No vote--no census: an account of some of the events of 1910-1911

The 2011 Census on the 27 March will be the latest in a series spanning over two centuries and covering vast demographic changes in the British population. Although the underlying aim of each census since 1801 has been to obtain an accurate enumeration of the population, successive censuses have adapted to changing social and technological circumstances, asking appropriate questions and using the best available technology to compile results. A century ago, the 1911 Census represented a shift from earlier censuses in its use of machine tabulation. Despite this innovation, however, what is perhaps most interesting about 1911 is the social and political circumstances: the 1911 Census took place against the background of a threatened boycott by the suffragette movement. The article demonstrates how, though times change and technology moves on, a successful census was conducted despite the deeply sensitive political times.     

Long-term Energy Demand and CO_2 Problem in the PRC

The long-term energy demand in China and the-Chinese share in global CO2 emission are forecasted on the basis of scenarios of population growth and economy development up to 2050 proposed in view of the interaction of energy, economy, environment and social development. The total energy demand in 2050 will reach 4.4~ 5.4 billion tce. It is shown in energy supply analysis that coal is China's major energy in primary energy supply. The share of CO2 emission in the future Chinese energy system will be out of proportion to its energy consumption share because of the high persentage of coal to be consumed. It will reach about 27%. The nuclear option which would replace 30.7% of coal in the total primary energy supply will reduce the share by 9.8%. So the policy considerations on the future Chinese energy system is of great importance to the global CO2 issues.     

不完备信息下生态补偿中主客体的两阶段动态博弈

由于环境问题的突出和经济发展的不平衡, 对环境质量要求较高的区域(补偿方)就会对环境质量较差的区域(被补偿方)提供一定的援助, 期望被补偿方改善环境质量. 但是由于环境资源能够给其带来收益以及策略性获取更多补偿金额动机的存在, 就会导致许多的补偿项目不会取得预期的效果甚至失败. 从动态博弈的角度出发, 首先建立了完全信息下补偿方和被补偿方的静态贝叶斯博弈模型, 分析了博弈双方在完全信息下的占优策略选择; 然后假设被补偿方执行环境政策和标准的力度(分为强硬型和软弱型)为其私有信息, 建立了不完全信息下两阶段动态博弈模型, 分析了两个区域的策略选择以及不完全信息如何影响补偿大小和环境质量.     

基于agent-based model的住房市场演化问题研究

在房地产市场中,多个具有一定量财富的个体依据其不同需求产生具有差异性的住房选择行为,在宏观上会呈现某些特定的规律.本文从这一角度出发,运用agent-based model,在居民家庭财富增长和房屋价格双重因素的考虑下,依据房地产市场中个体的实际行为规律,设定出相应的运行规则,对房地产市场中个体迁移图景进行了计算机模拟.以基尼系数作为衡量经济不平等程度的标准,空间差异指数作为经济分割的度量指标,改变模型初始条件和各参数取值,从多角度分析,最终得出,在现有住房规律之下,随着居民家庭财富的不断增长,会导致城市居民出现居住空间上的隔离并进一步拉大贫富差距,形成空间经济分割的现象.     

人口老龄化对居民消费水平的影响研究——基于最优增长模型的理论分析与实证检验

本文放松效用贴现因子不变假设,认为人口老龄化可以通过改变效用贴现因子来对经济系统的平衡增长路径产生影响.如果不考虑技术进步,随着人口老龄化程度加重,代表性消费者对未来的重视程度将会降低,导致稳态消费水平降低.如果考虑技术进步,老龄化虽然可以通过效用贴现因子减低消费水平,但也可能提高技术进步,进而提高人均消费水平.基于CHARLS 2013年度的全国调研数据,实证结果表明家庭财务状况与消费水平正相关,较高的收入和资产可以提高消费的水平,这一关系在分组稳健性检验和个人资产、攀比效应稳健性检验中均成立.年龄与消费水平负相关,但在高龄老人中这一关系可能不显著.身体越健康的老人消费水平越低,受教育程度较高的居民和老龄居民均有相对较高的消费水平.     

Action Research for Sustainable Water Futures in Western Sydney: Reaching Beyond Traditional Stakeholder Engagement to Understand Community Stakeholder Language and Its Implications for Action

Action on issues of ecological significance often requires changes in personal behaviour and political consensus on technologies to support these changes. Unfortunately, many consultation processes only engage a narrow range of stakeholders, usually those professionally engaged or already active on a range of community issues. This paper illustrates how people who are ‘hard to reach’ or seen as ‘apathetic’ might be engaged using ‘action-conversations’ that explore the social climate for action and how scientific/technical messages can be framed in the language of the community.     

The Measure Method of Complaint Theme Influence in View of Netizens' Emotional Resonance

On the social network platform, complaints about the public policy formulation and implementation issues arise largely. Through the information aggregation, frequent interaction, word-of-mouth and emotional resonance on online social network, these information will lead to the outbreak of the network complaints. It brings difficulties and challenges in public management. China is under a period of social transformation, and there are various problems and contradictions. Emergency can easily arouse group complaints on online network, and it will lead to network public opinion through inducing social emotional resonance, which is harmful to social security and stability. This paper has built the evaluation index system from four dimensions with complaint text's quality, transmission timeliness, user interaction degree and emotional resonance excited by emergency. Then, we establish the dynamic influence measure model of online netizens complaint theme based on an entropy weight model. The measure model is proved to be reasonable and effective by the empirical research of Sina Weibo data. The model can effectively solve the measure problem of group complaints influence when the emergencies arouse social emotional resonance. It has important theoretical significance and practical value for public policy decision-maker on listening to online group complaints, understanding public opinion, and making public policy.     

Sugeno测度下的征信用户聚类研究

征信系统是典型的大数据客户系统,如何对征信用户进行合理归类,进而从类别特征中分析用户的特点,是对征信系统进行深入挖掘的焦点问题之一.在征信系统中存在着大量的频数字段,这些变量的距离不能使用欧氏距离来刻画,Sugeno积分提供了一种考虑集合序的测度框架.本研究通过使用Sugeno测度下的部分序积分,构造了两集合的Sugeno距离差,进而在此基础上,重构Kmeans动态聚类算法,通过截集阈值来控制类的合并,从而更准确地对征信用户进行归类,并初步讨论了部分类用户的画像特征.     

Environmental Education: Enhancing Learning and Awareness Through Assessment

Environmental issues are rapidly gaining momentum globally as humans try to find sustainable solutions to the effects of climate change, carbon emissions, and the actions of human-kind (see Olver, Blacklist those who ‘greenwash’. Companies must walk the talk regarding climate. The Times, 2011a; The weather warriors’ war. Real change will come when a few good men and women say ‘enough is enough’. The Times, 2011b). To enhance learning and awareness of environmental issues among Environmental Education students and the community at large, this study situated assessments within communities of practice around the university. Using action engagement within action research students had to work with insiders from the community to identify, formulate action or intervention plans and find solutions to problem situations in the community. Using action engagement within action research in this study definitely enhanced student’s knowledge of their community’s problems. Their personal involvement and the cyclical approach adopted, enhanced students’ emotional understanding and gave them an insider perspective into the situations and problems that required intervention; and trust was built between the students and members of the community as they worked together to accomplish a common goal.     

Who reports address changes through the healthcare system? The characteristics of laggers and non-reporters using the Northern Ireland Longitudinal Study

Address information from health service professionals is already important for the delivery of health care and population monitoring and screening. It is also important for statistical purposes such as the estimation of migration and small area populations and its importance could increase as the decade progresses and alternatives are sought to the traditional census. Because of this, it is important to understand more about the accuracy of address information provided through the health care system.This article considers the characteristics of 'laggers' - those who delay in reporting address changes - and 'non-reporters' - those who on occasion fail to report their addresses.The article finds that, as might be expected, laggers and non-reporters tend to be male and resident in urban and deprived areas. However, less expectedly, older people tend to be laggers, as are owner occupiers, those who are not ill, those who have some educational qualifications, and those who are self-employed. Some non-reporters are also more likely to be employed in professional jobs and to be unmarried (for example single, remarried and divorced). This suggests that poor address information is not just a problem associated with the socially deprived and the young but also with some more affluent groups such as those not experiencing limiting long-term illness. The article concludes by arguing that the checking of patients' address information should be collected under the Quality and Outcomes Framework (QOF) as a performance indicator.