新安江模型与衰减记忆最小二乘法耦合洪水模型的应用

利用新安江模型进行流域产流计算,采用扩散波方程推得的汇流状态方程描述流域汇流过程,由衰减记忆递推最小二乘法实现参数估计实时化,从而使新安江模型与衰减记忆递推最小二乘法耦合,实现洪水实时预报。利用耦合模型对矶头水库76场入库洪水进行模拟,模拟结果表明,耦合模型适合中小水库入库洪水实时预报,预报精度比独立使用新安江模型得到了大大的提高。     

长湖水库对英德洪水的影响

英德站区域洪水主要来自北江,长湖水库泄洪对英德洪水影响较小,汛后水库水位可以提高,并使长湖水电厂获得更多的经济效益。     

考虑水库泄水影响的逐网格汇流演算方法

为将网格新安江(Grid-XAJ)模型更好地应用于受水库泄水影响地区的洪水模拟及预报,以横排头流域为研究区域,基于水库真实地理位置,利用分段马斯京根(MK)法、逐网格MK法、逐网格Muskingum-Cunge-Todini(MCT)法对比分析水库泄水对模型汇流计算的影响。结果表明:3种方法对洪峰的模拟情况均较好,率定期与验证期全部洪水的平均合格率均为100%;逐网格MK法与分段MK法全部洪水的平均径流深合格率均为76.9%,小于逐网格MCT法(84.6%);与分段MK法相比,逐网格MCT法与逐网格MK法可以反映上游水库泄水对汇流过程中流量在流域中时空分布的影响;逐网格MCT法在逐网格MK法的基础上进一步考虑了下垫面河道的真实情况;总体而言,逐网格MCT法对于受水库泄水影响流域的洪水预报具有较强的适应性和可靠性。     

三水源新安江模型在黄龙带水库洪水预报中的应用

新安江模型是河海大学赵人俊等人提出的,广泛应用于我国潮湿与半潮湿地区,本文分析黄龙带水库的水文特征,重点介绍了新安江三水源模型在黄龙带水库洪水预报中的应用。     

飞来峡水库入库洪水计算模型探讨

在分析北江流域暴雨洪水特性的基础上,针对飞来峡水库流域洪水的特点和复杂性,采用水文学和水力学相结合的方法,构建了飞来峡水库入库洪水计算的耦合模型,整个模型由区间洪水计算的流域水文模型和河网水力学数学模型组成,模型的计算结果表明,洪水模拟与实测过程拟合较好,精度较高.其成果可作为飞来峡水库入库洪水分析和水库动库调洪计算的基础,为水库防洪调度的设计提供依据.在流域洪水模拟的过程中,采用了移用邻近参证流域资料进行水文参数率定和降雨径流模拟,取得了满意的结果,对无资料区间的洪水计算进行了有益的尝试.     

基于栅格的新安江模型的构建和应用

根据分布式模型和新安江模型的最新理论,建立了基于栅格的分布式新安江水文模型,该模型能够考虑网格之间的水量交换.将建立的模型用于钱塘江支流密赛流域的洪水模拟计算,并与新安江模型的计算结果进行比较,可以看出,基于栅格的分布式新安江水文模型可以很好地应用于该流域进行洪水模拟,其模拟精度于原新安江模型的精度相当.     

水库洪水资源化调度初探

洪水资源化具有鲜明的时代特征,其利用矛盾的对立统一性原理,可有效地实现由控制洪水向洪水管理的转变.水库具有洪水资源化能力,优化水库防洪参数和规则,进行水库洪水资源化调度是一种直接、经济的非工程措施,可高效地利用雨洪资源、变汛期水为非汛期水.本文提出,水库洪水资源化调度的主要内容包括汛限水位设计和汛末蓄水研究,其中汛限水位研究包括分期汛限水位和汛限水位动态控制方法,汛末蓄水研究包括蓄水时间选定和相应的蓄水方式,并指出水库洪水资源化调度中尚存在设计洪水的不确定性、设计洪水过程线的频率意义不明晰、设计洪水与设计暴雨的频率不一致、气候变化和人类活动影响条件下的水文频率分析、分期设计洪水与年设计洪水关系、分期防洪标准的确定、预报误差规律分析以及动态控制的安全性、水库洪水资源化调度的管理机制等理论问题,并指出了研究方向.     

基于分布式水文模型的山洪预警临界雨量计算

以抚河流域3个山丘小流域为例,采用分布式新安江模型对小流域暴雨洪水进行精细化模拟,利用率定后的分布式新安江模型进行临界雨量试算,得出各流域不同初始土壤含水量、不同预警时段组合条件下临界雨量。将计算所得临界雨量与实测暴雨洪水过程和设计暴雨进行比较验证,结果表明临界雨量计算结果较为合理,说明分布式新安江模型可应用于抚河流域山洪预警临界雨量确定,并为抚河流域山洪预警工作的开展提供参考方法。     

抗差修正在白水坑水库实时洪水预报中的应用

在水库洪水预报中,由实测库水位、出库流量、水位库容曲线反推后得到的水库入库流量曲线多呈现"锯齿"状,带有波动误差,这种是不服从正态分布的粗差,因此无法通过分析其分布情况对预报值进行修正,给水库预报系统造成了不良影响.为此,尝试将抗差理论引入水库入库洪水预报实时校正中.本文以浙江白水坑水库为例,选择三水源新安江模型、马斯京根河道汇流模型,对白水坑水库入库洪水进行模拟,对实测入库洪水抗差修正后再进行实时校正.结果表明,抗差能够有效阻止非正常信息进入预报系统,从而提高洪水预报精度.     

五强溪水库近坝区洪水预报方法研究

针对五强溪水库近坝区洪水预报难度大、预报精度难以满足实际需求的现状,基于历史暴雨中心分布与流域产汇流特征划分单元流域,采用三水源新安江模型构建入库洪水预报新方案进行参数率定和历史洪水模拟,并综合剖析了洪水预报误差的主要原因。研究结果表明,构建的洪水预报新方案能够取得较高的洪水预报精度,在2021年实时洪水预报作业中取得了良好的应用效果。流域内水利工程泄洪资料的缺失是目前造成洪量及洪峰模拟误差的主要原因。     

砂岩储层可压裂性评价方法研究

通过研究砂岩储层压裂裂缝起裂、扩展规律以及期望的裂缝形态,提出了砂岩储层可压裂性具体含义。分析KGD模型中各因素对压裂裂缝的影响规律,借助成熟的有限元方法对上述规律进行验证及补充,建立了砂岩储层可压裂性与储层岩石弹性模量和最小水平地应力之间的关系,绘制了可压裂性指标的变化规律,即弹性模量越高,最小水平地应力越小,砂岩储层的可压裂性越高。根据地震资料可以绘制砂岩储层的三维可压裂性分布图,可以为压裂选井选层提供参考。     

裂缝性砂岩油藏的水驱动态规律

从裂缝性砂岩油藏与常规油藏相渗曲线的差异入手,推导出了裂缝性油藏的水驱特征曲线的解析表达式,并绘制了理论曲线形状,从而发现了裂缝性砂岩油藏特有的水驱动态规律.与常规砂岩油藏具有明显不同,裂缝性砂岩油藏的水驱曲线在高含水期不再保持为一条直线而是出现“尾端上翘”现象.这一结论在现场实际和油藏数值模拟中得到了验证.对这类水驱曲线在裂缝性油藏动态预测中的有关问题进行了讨论.     

火成岩储层研究

从商 741地区测井资料及试油试采资料入手 ,结合钻井取心、测井资料及地震资料等相关资料 ,根据有关公式计算出了裂缝的产状和张开度及储层特征 ,对储层裂缝系统中裂缝的产状、张开度和储层的孔隙度、渗透率、饱和度进行了室内研究 ,并对火成岩成因油藏进行了分析 ,找出了一种适合该区火成岩储层的评价方法 .通过储层评价 ,确定了 4类储集层并划分出了储层的有效裂缝带 ,从而确定了该区原油分布的主要规律 ,以期指导该区的开发方案设计 .     

Potential methane reservoirs beneath Antarctica

Once thought to be devoid of life, the ice-covered parts of Antarctica are now known to be a reservoir of metabolically active microbial cells and organic carbon. The potential for methanogenic archaea to support the degradation of organic carbon to methane beneath the ice, however, has not yet been evaluated. Large sedimentary basins containing marine sequences up to 14?kilometres thick and an estimated 21,000 petagrams (1?Pg equals 10(15)?g) of organic carbon are buried beneath the Antarctic Ice Sheet. No data exist for rates of methanogenesis in sub-Antarctic marine sediments. Here we present experimental data from other subglacial environments that demonstrate the potential for overridden organic matter beneath glacial systems to produce methane. We also numerically simulate the accumulation of methane in Antarctic sedimentary basins using an established one-dimensional hydrate model and show that pressure/temperature conditions favour methane hydrate formation down to sediment depths of about 300?metres in West Antarctica and 700?metres in East Antarctica. Our results demonstrate the potential for methane hydrate accumulation in Antarctic sedimentary basins, where the total inventory depends on rates of organic carbon degradation and conditions at the ice-sheet bed. We calculate that the sub-Antarctic hydrate inventory could be of the same order of magnitude as that of recent estimates made for Arctic permafrost. Our findings suggest that the Antarctic Ice Sheet may be a neglected but important component of the global methane budget, with the potential to act as a positive feedback on climate warming during ice-sheet wastage.     

Fruit bats as reservoirs of Ebola virus

The first recorded human outbreak of Ebola virus was in 1976, but the wild reservoir of this virus is still unknown. Here we test for Ebola in more than a thousand small vertebrates that were collected during Ebola outbreaks in humans and great apes between 2001 and 2003 in Gabon and the Republic of the Congo. We find evidence of asymptomatic infection by Ebola virus in three species of fruit bat, indicating that these animals may be acting as a reservoir for this deadly virus.     

Exploration on ecological regulation of the reservoirs

Reservoir regulation process in the Yangtze River basin is mainly divided into two types of flood regulation and initiating benefit regulation. The present reservoir management system and operation mode are mainly for dealing with or coordinating of flood control and benefit initiation as well as benefit distribution among various beneficial functions. From the view point of river ecosystem protection, the current regulation mode has two kinds of problems ： firstly, most of the reservoir regulation plans do not consider ecosystem protection at downstream of dams and needs of environment protection in reservoir areas; secondly, integrated regulation or management of water resources is ignored. It is very necessary to improve reservoir regulation mode, bearing problems faced by regulation of the Three Gorges reservoir and issues related to cascade development and regulation in Tuojiang and Minjiang River basins in mind. In accordance with the concept of scientific development, and the philosophy of ＂ensuring a healthy Yangtze River and promoting the harmony between human and water＂, taking flood control, benefit initiation and eco-system as a whole, this paper put forward the basic consideration to improve reservoir regulation as follows ： on the basis of requirements of ecosystem protection at downstream of dams and needs of environment protection in reservoir areas, we should bring the functions of reservoir such as flood control and benefit initiation into full play, control the negative influence to the ecosystem at downstream of dams and the environment in reservoir areas in an endurable scope, and restore the ecosystem and the environment step by step. This paper put forward the relevant regulation process aiming at the idiographic problems such as protection of ecosystem at downstream of dams and environment in reservoir areas, protection of aquatic wildlife species and fish species, regulation of sediment and protection of wetland.     

潘庄井田煤储层渗透率预测

为提高煤层开采水平,通过分析地应力、埋深、煤储层压力等对渗透率的影响,分别构建煤储层渗透率与其影响因素之间的拟合关系,利用定量关系对潘庄井田煤储层的渗透率进行了系统预测.预测结果显示:潘庄井田上主煤层3煤的渗透率大约在0.3×10-3～2.1×10-3μm2,下主煤层15煤的渗透率大约在0.4×10-3～0.8×10-3μm2.