The 2007 Census Test: evaluation of key objectives

The Office for National Statistics conducted a major census field test in May and June 2007 as part of the planning and preparation for the next census of population and housing in England and Wales in 2011. The 2007 Census Test was a large scale test covering approximately 100,000 household in five local authorities (LAs) selected to reflect a range of geographic conditions and social characteristics. Within England the Test covered parts of Bath and North East Somerset, Camden, Liverpool and Stoke on Trent. In Wales the Test took place in Carmarthenshire. The selected LAs were chosen to provide a varied cross section of the population and types of housing that would be covered in a full census. This article summarises the evaluation results and, where decided, decisions for 2011 on four key aspects of the Test: delivery method - post-out compared with hand delivery; inclusion of an income question; outsourcing recruitment, training and pay; and liaison with LAs.     

The 2011 Census: a proposed design for England and Wales

This article sets out the proposed design for a 2011 Census in England and Wales, as part of the ONS's proposed future population statistics system. The design draws on experiences from the 2001 Census and changes in available technology, and takes account of the many comments received from respondents to a Discussion Paper published in October 2003 and of views expressed at a joint ONS/RSS Conference on 11-12 November 2003. The article highlights the statistical and operational strategic aims for the 2011 Census, the major changes proposed from the 2001 approach, and gives an indication of the benefits and risks. It is important to note that this design remains a proposal at present, the elements of which will be subject to further research building on comments received during consultation and a detailed testing programme over the coming years.     

Population bases and the 2011 Census

In an increasingly complex society there are a number of different population definitions that can be relevant for users, beyond the standard definition used in counting the population. This article describes the enumeration base for the 2011 Census and how alternative population outputs may be produced. It provides a background as to how the questions on the questionnaire were decided upon and how population bases can be constructed from the Census. Similarities and differences between the information collected across the three UK Censuses (England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland) are discussed. Finally, issues around estimating the population on alternative bases are presented.     

2011 Census Field design: getting the numbers right

A labour force of over 30,000 temporary field staff has been employed to carry out the Census. This article summarises the role of the field staff in collecting census questionnaires from households and communal establishments for the March 2011 enumeration. Building on the lessons learned from the 2001 Census, and taking account of changes in society and technology since 2001, the article provides a summary of the planned field staff structures and processes intended to deal with returned questionnaires and non-responders.     

Quality assuring the 2011 Census population estimates

The 2011 Census is a once in a decade opportunity to gain an accurate picture of the population. Quality assurance of the census population estimates is vital to ensure data robustness and that users have confidence in the results. This article provides a detailed summary of the methods being used to achieve this quality assurance, including the processes and adjustments.     

Covering all bases: early thoughts for population bases for the 2011 Census

This article discusses early thinking on the options for the population bases to be used in the 2011 Census. It describes some of the work being conducted to enable a decision about bases to be reached, including historic and international reviews of censuses. It also discusses the implications that our rapidly changing society has for census planning.     

系统科学视角下的经济系统运行架构初探

中国改革开放30余年,经济发展取得了长足的进步,经济理论的体系性反思与总结是必不可少的.从西方的主要经济学学派和宏观、微观经济学体系中去体会经济系统的运作架构,进而在这个系统架构中嵌入诺贝尔经济学奖获奖者的主要成果领域,并提出一些初步的系统理解,希望能打开系统科学视角下研究经济系统运行规律的综合集成之窗.     

中小企业融资结构影响因素的实证研究

以长沙市中小企业为样本，检验影响中小企业融资结构的影响因素。通过样本数据的统计分析，发现中小企业的“强制优序融资”现象比较明显，与有关理论相符。财务管理中的“黄金法则”——资产/债务应相匹配也在中小企业融资结构中得到体现。通过与湖南省的调查数据比较和自身样本数据的回归分析，发现民间金融与经济发展水平、销售收入有显著相关性。国外的实证检验一般将企业人数作为企业规模的一项指标，对融资结构有显著性影响。而本文的检验显示人数与融资结构无关，这应是国内劳动密集型企业多所致。     

光电对抗仿真测试系统综述

光电对抗仿真测试系统主要用于全面检验光电对抗装备的战术技术性能,是光电对抗装备研制定型的必要手段。主要讨论了采用仿真手段建设光电对抗仿真系统的目的和意义,阐述了光电对抗装备武器仿真技术现状和发展趋势,介绍了光电对抗仿真系统的一般组成,并简要地给出了各组成部分的功能和组成,最后就其涉及到的关键技术进行了探讨。     

基于长记忆视角的Granger因果检验

基于ARFIMA和FIGARCH模型,以地产股指数和银行股指数为例,提供了一种分解长记忆时间序列短记忆特征的思路,研究了时间序列长记忆性对Granger因果检验的影响.案例研究表明,银行指数收益率波动对地产指数收益率波动有更强的因果引致关系,且银行指数收益率波动的长记忆特征在一定程度上影响到其短时相依关系对地产指数收益率波动的解释力.     

大股东控制下的内部资本转移与利益冲突

构建了大股东控制下的企业集团内部资本转移优化模型,定量地推导了三种情景下的均衡结果、参与各方福利和影响因素,以此对大股东控制下的内部资本交易行为进行研究.研究发现,理想型内部资本交易实现了资本配置的最优化和社会福利的最大化,形成参与各方"共赢"的局面,实现了集团公司财务目标;附加冲突成本的内部资本交易存在资本转移不足行为,资本交易仍可以持续维持,基本实现集团公司财务目标;侵害型内部资本交易存在过度转移资本行为,资本交易不可持续,实现的财务目标只能是在损害利益相关者的前提下,追求控股股东财富最大化.     

The sufficient and necessary condition of the major stochastic preference rule in group decision making

Group decision making problem with stochastic preference is investigated.The authors present four rational conditions for testing group stochastic preference rule,and prove that the combination of these four rational conditions is the sufficient and necessary condition of major stochastic preference rule for group stochastic preference rule.     

中国能源强度的影响因素分析——基于协整检验和因素分解

中国能源强度自改革开放以来一直呈下降趋势,但在2002～2005年却反常上升。本文从产业结构、技术进步、对外开放程度三个方面分别选择了第三产业比重、RD技术知识存量、GDP与GNP之差三个变量,用协整分析方法对中国能源强度和三个变量之间的长期均衡关系进行研究,得出中国能源强度的协整分析模型和误差修正模型并进行脉冲响应函数分析和方差分解。在此基础上本文进一步将1985～2006年中国能源强度变化分解为受产业结构影响的结构份额和受技术进步和对外开放程度等因素影响的效率份额。为有效完成十一五单位GDP能耗降低20%目标,本文建议要努力提高第三产业比重以及通过研发、推广节能技术和扩大净要素流入引进先进技术和管理来持续提高我国能源利用效率。     

结构化模型中违约概率的比较静态分析及实证

由于违约概率估计在金融机构中风险测度与风险管理的重要性，基于信用风险管理的结构化方法，应用Black-Scholes-Merton的结构化模型计算客观违约概率，分析客观违约概率的比较静态特征，实证结果表明，比较静态特征在信用风险管理中起到有重要的作用。     

Older workers' withdrawal from the labour market 1991 to 2007: impact of socio-demographic characteristics, health and household circumstances

This article presents an analysis of the withdrawal from the labour market of older workers in England and Wales between 1991 and 1995 and in England between 2002/03 and 2006/07. It examines the relationship between withdrawal from the labour market and demographic and socio-economic characteristics of older workers, their labour market status, health status, housing, household circumstances and caring commitments at the start of each period being considered.     

企业知识基础网络结构与技术创新绩效的关系——基于中国电子信息行业的实证分析

企业知识基础是其技术创新的起点,提高中国企业的自主创新能力已成为管理学界和企业关注的焦点问题之一。为了明确企业知识基础网络结构与技术创新绩效间的关系,以中国电子信息行业31家企业的37 108发明专利数据为样本,以专利的国际技术分类为知识基础网络的节点,同属于2个技术分类的专利数量为节点间边的权重,构建了企业的知识基础网络。通过对中国电子信息行业中企业的知识基础网络结构特征和技术创新绩效关系的实证分析,发现企业知识基础网络密度和分解性与技术创新绩效之间存在倒U型关系,而中心性与技术创新绩效之间的曲线关系未得到实证支持。     

中国开放式基金业绩排序稳定性的Kendall检验

主要利用中国开放式基金的历史数据考察基金收益率、总风险、系统风险、非系统风险和特雷诺指数五项基本指标,用Kendall协同系数法对各项指标在多个时间段排序关系的稳定性进行检验。结果表明,基金的三项风险指标在各时间段的排序都具有十分显著的稳定性,而收益率和特雷诺指数无显著的排序稳定性。分析显示,基金风险指标表现出“风格效应”,其排序关系可以从基金的风格得到合理解释。本文的研究成果有助于加深了解中国开放式基金市场的特征,可为基金业绩的评估与预测提供参考信息。     

Dealing with a Differentiated Whole: The Philosophy of the WSR Approach

This paper seeks to explore a philosophical ground for the formulation and practice of an Oriental systems methodology, the wuli–shili–renli approach (WSR). Drawing insights from ancient Chinese thought, WSR contends that, in sociotechnical systems design/management, we should investigate and follow wuli, shili, and renli, which constitute a differentiable, dynamic whole. Wuli, shili, and renli condition and determine the fate of our projects, meaning different methods are needed to deal with each differentiable aspect. It also points out that, to deal with wuli, shili, and renli properly, we need to engage in encounters with the "dark side" of Confucianism and with the contemporary tendency of scientism.     

财务困境概率贝叶斯估计

通过财务困境概率估计模型建立一套企业财务风险预测系统,具有降低企业经营风险、投资风险以及防范金融危机的重要意义。现有的预测模型主要有:多元识别分析模型、Logit和Probit等统计回归模型以及人工神经网络预测模型。但以上模型均忽略了决策者个人经验、智慧以及信息优势对财务困境预测的重要作用。本文利用贝叶斯分析方法建立的概率估计模型,可以较好地解决这个问题,提高预测的针对性和准确性。