考虑估值不确定和搜索成本的预售决策研究

研究了预售环境下,存在消费者估值不确定和消费者搜索成本时,销售商的最优定价和配给决策.建立一个两阶段模型,考虑一个销售商出售单一新产品给若干具有战略行为的消费者,消费者根据自身效用最大化原则选择最佳购买时机,销售商则考虑消费者的战略行为,决策最优的两期价格和预售期配给量.研究结果表明,预售期的配给量取决于单位产品的采购成本.当且仅当单位产品的采购成本介于特定范围内时,销售商应采用预售策略,此时折扣预售策略总是销售商的最佳选择.否则销售商应采用正常销售策略.研究还表明,当消费者的风险成本系数较低时,消费者的搜索成本越高,销售商的预售价格和总利润越低.否则,消费者的搜索成本越高,销售商的预售价格和总利润越高.     

企业流动资金集成管理模型及优化策略

论文基于现实企业常用的缓解流动资金短缺的两种手段展开分析, 即, 通过销售环节增加资金的流入(如, 加快资产周转、预售等), 或通过采购环节减少资金流出(如, 延期付款、期权采购等). 在考虑流动资金流出(采购)和流入(销售)平衡的基础上, 构建了缓解流动资金短缺的利润最大化集成模型, 并进行了最优解的分析和比较. 分析得出, 企业的期望利润函数是关于实物产品和期权采购量的联合凹函数, 且证明了在销售期需求服从正态分布的条件下存在唯一的最优预售折扣. 运用集成优化的方法, 研究发现同时采用期权采购和预售策略能够显著缓解企业流动资金的短缺程度, 实现企业流动资金管理效率的提升. 最后运用数值算例进行了结果分析和验证.     

考虑策略型消费者损失厌恶下的新产品预售与退货策略研究

新产品通常面临较大的市场不确定性,如何保证产品的供应与市场需求的匹配性对于企业来说尤为重要,企业通过预售提前获取需求信息有助于实现这一目标.本文在考虑策略型消费者损失厌恶下研究了零售商的预售及退货策略,首先基于策略型与短视型消费者的行为特点构建预售与正常销售两阶段模型,对允许退货与不允许退货两种预售策略展开对比研究,接着通过构建两种策略下零售商的收益模型得出相应的最优预售价格和最优退货价格,并给出退货价格的取值范围.研究发现,由于策略型消费者的损失厌恶,零售商不得不降低预售期产品的价格.当预售期结束后的退货价格不高于某一特定的值时,退货策略的实施能够使零售商获得更优收益,并且存在一个最优的退货价格,使得退货模式下零售商的期望利润达到最大值.     

Centralized Decisions for a Two-Stage Supply Chain with Price-Discount Dependent Demand

In this paper,we study a centralized supply chain for a two-stage with selling price discount.This supply chain consists of a supplier and a retailer. Based on the feature that the product's selling season is short and the supply chain faces great demand uncertainty. We consider a two-stage scenario where,at the beginning of stage 1,the supplier reserves production capacity based on historic data in advance,stage 2 comes to us after some leadtime,both the supplier and the retailer update the demand information,the retailer then places an order not exceeding the reserved capacity based on the selling-pricing discount dependent demand. We make optimal decisions on the reserved capacity in stage 1,selling price discount and order quantity in stage 2. In this supply chain,the pattern in stage2 is figured out first,and then stage 1 is cleared as well. Then we present a numerical example to give some insights. Finally we get some conclusions.     

考虑参照价格效应及异质性消费者的预售决策

参照价格效应对消费者的购买行为产生显著的影响,将其纳入零售商的预售决策中,并考虑消费者对参照价格效应偏好的异质性,给出了最优预售和定价策略.研究结果表明,零售商的产能和消费者群体的结构决定了不预售,折扣预售和溢价预售的最优可行域;且参照价格效应的变化影响零售商跨期价格歧视的弹性,预售策略的利润以及各销售策略的可行域.由此,零售商应正视该消费群体的诉求,根据不同可行域和自身产能情况制定科学的决策以获得最佳收益.     

TWO-STAGE ORDERING DECISION FOR A SHORT-LIFE-CYCLE PRODUCT

1. Introduction Recent years have seen scores of retail and manufacturing companies exploring innovative ordering or production modes in an effort to improve their operations and ultimately the bottom lines. So, more and more scholars and managers have investigated stochastic inventory problems. Uncertain demand is the cause of higher inventory costs for short-life-cycle products, such as style fashions, perishable products, and even IT-type products. For short-life-cycle products, most schol…     

A RISK-AVERSE NEWSVENDOR MODEL WITH LIMITED CAPACITY AND OUTSOURCING UNDER THE CVAR CRITERION

For seasonal products,the retailers usually launch various marketing efforts,like advertising and promotion,to promote them in a selling season.While facing large demand from the customers,one should take the capacity constraint and outsourcing into consideration.Considering the shorten life cycles of most products,in this paper we adopt the traditional newsvendor model to investigate the optimal marketing effort along with optimal order quantity.We address the risk aversion issue and characterize the influence of the sellers’ risk propensity with CVaR criterion,and we develop an effective algorithm to obtain the optimal strategy.The impact of sellers’ risk propensity on the performance of the system is illustrated via numerical examples.The innovation of this paper is threefold.First,the optimal joint strategy of the marketing effort and order quantity is investigated and an efficient algorithm to find the optimal strategy is developed.Second,the capacity constraint option and an outsourcing strategy are studied jointly for excess products.Finally,the risk propensity of the seller and its influence are investigated by using the CVaR criterion,through which we obtain some new managerial insights.     

Stochastic comparisons in a price-quantity setting firm with uncertain demand and emergency procurement

We consider a newsvendor problem with price-dependent demand, in either additive or multiplicative format. The newsvendor has two modes of purchasing： regular ordering at the beginning of the selling season and emergency ordering （if the realized demand exceeds the initial order quantity） at the end of the selling season. By stochastic comparisons, we systematically investigate the effects of demand magnitude and demand randomness on pricing and ordering quantity decisions as well as expected profit of the newsvendor, under both usual stochastic order （first order stochastic dominance） and convex order （less variable）. Our key findings include： （i） in contrary to the case where price is exogenous, a stochastically larger demand shock may even lead to a lower order quantity; （ii） a stochastically larger demand shock leads to a higher price for the additive demand case, but may lead to a lower price for the multiplicative demand case; （iii） a stochastically larger demand shock leads to a higher expected profit for both demand models; （iv） in general, a less variable demand leads to a higher expected profit for both demand models; and furthermore, a less variable demand shock has no effect on price for the additive demand model, but leads to a higher price for the multiplicative demand model. The implications of all these findings for pricing and order quantity are discussed in detail.     

基于策略消费者的差异化产品推出及定价研究

考虑一个同时存在策略型消费者和短视型消费者的市场,研究企业的纵向差异化产品推出策略选择问题.考虑质量递增序贯推出,质量递减序贯推出和同时推出三种策略,分别构建两阶段的动态定价模型,研究企业的产品推出策略与策略消费者行为之间的相互影响.研究发现,企业的产品推出策略选择取决于策略消费者的影响程度(市场规模、耐心程度)以及产品质量成本比率(即两产品质量差异与成本差异的比率),而递增策略由于较高的竞食影响和较低的细分优势,不会成为企业的最佳选择.在质量成本比率较低的情况下,当策略消费者行为的影响增强时,企业通过递减策略缓解策略消费者行为的效果要优于同时策略;而在质量成本比率较高的情况下,当策略消费者行为的影响适中时,较高的细分市场优势使得同时策略缓解策略消费者行为的效果更佳.     

失望厌恶对报童零售商最优库存决策的影响

研究了同时存在短视型和策略型消费者且策略型消费者具有失望厌恶时,零售商在两时期销售单一产品的库存决策问题.分别分析了失望厌恶水平和策略型消费者比例对零售商的库存决策和利润的影响.此外,还考虑了零售商在清货期提高清货价的情形.结果表明:对于高利润产品,只有当失望厌恶水平高于临界值时,失望厌恶才能抑制消费者的策略性购买行为,提高零售商的库存和利润.对于低利润产品,只要策略型消费者具有失望厌恶,失望厌恶总是能够缓解消费者的策略性购买行为,提高零售商的库存和利润.此外,当失望厌恶水平较低且策略型消费者比例较高时,零售商提高清货价能够增加利润;当失望厌恶水平较高时,零售商提高清货价总是遭受着利润损失.算例分析发现,当失望厌恶水平为1.7至2.1时,分别对于高低利润产品,当策略型消费者比例为0.2时,零售商的利润提高百分比最高可分别达到12.5%和10.6%,而当策略型消费者比例为0.8时,零售商的利润提高百分比最高可分别达到200%和61.8%.     

无理由退货政策下的概率销售策略

本文研究了无理由退货政策下,零售商是否应该提供概率产品,以及概率产品和传统产品应该如何定价的问题.由于消费者会根据对不同产品的期望满意度决定是否购买,零售商需要考虑如何提供最优的概率产品与传统产品的产品组合.本文同时考虑了零售商的销售策略和产品定价决策,发现消费者满意度对零售商的决策有十分重要的影响.特别地,随着消费者满意度的上升,零售商的利润反而有可能会降低.数值分析显示概率产品的随机性和消费者满意率对零售商的概率销售决策和利润有显著影响.     

竞争环境下季节性产品网上直销动态定价模型

以同一大型网站中提供同一季节性产品的两个厂商为对象,研究竞争环境下厂商的动态定价策略.模型中,厂商通过网上渠道直接将产品销售给顾客,并通过动态定价最大化自身的收益,同时还要考虑顾客退货对动态价格体系的影响.通过建立的模型,探讨了收益函数的相关性质,并分析了厂商在销售期初和期末的价格均衡.研究表明:两厂商均会在销售期初和期末采用最低价.最后应用算例分析展现了模型的实际应用过程.     

关于概率销售的动态演化博弈研究

在异质产品市场的国内外双寡头销售商垄断销售背景下,本文借助Hotelling模型研究了概率销售和传统销售策略作为决策变量的动态博弈演化过程,系统演化的结果表明零售商策略的选择受消费者对概率销售的认同程度以及产品差异程度的双重影响,同时兼顾不同类型消费者群体的需求:当消费者对概率产品的认同度足以弥补产品差异的损失时,消费者会选择概率产品,否则消费者会选择传统销售产品;对于一些不确定群体以及对概率销售完全不消费群体等特殊群体的消费者采用传统销售和概率销售相结合的灵活销售策略.本文的结果对概率销售理论研究具有一定的指导意义,并为概率销售实践提供了理论依据.     

具有两阶段生产模式的一类短生命周期产品的供应链协调

研究了由单一制造商、单一分销商和单一产品组成的供应链契约中的订货和生产行为.该产品生命周期短,且市场需求不确定.分销商除了在销售季节开始之前订货,还会根据实际需求量的大小在销售季节的尾声再订一次货.因两次订货有着不同的要求,制造商相应会提供两种不同的生产模式来进行生产,第一阶段的生产相对较便宜但需要一段较长的提前期,而第二阶段的生产尽管会更加昂贵但可以很快就生产完毕.如果制造商和分销商共享产品的需求信息,制造商可通过适当提高第一阶段的生产量在使得自己利润达到最优的同时,也使得供应链整体利润达到最优.并与整个过程中只采用其中一种生产模式的情形相比较,说明将两种不同的生产模式结合起来,供应链及其成员都有望获得更高的期望利润.     

Pricing Strategies in a Supply Chain with Multi-Manufacturer and a Common Retailer Under Online Reviews

Online reviews play an important role in consumer purchasing behavior when shopping online, and in turn affect pricing strategies of sellers. We consider a supply chain consisting of three competitive manufacturers and an e-tailer, which sells multiple substitutable products procured from different manufacturers. Considering reviews in terms of quality information and fit information, we study the effect of online reviews on consumers’ purchasing decisions as well as pricing strategies of manufacturers and the e-retailer. Through modelling customer choice with online reviews based on neo-Hoteling model and solving Stackelberg game composed by manufacturers and e-tailer, we obtain the optimal equilibrium prices of manufacturers and the e-tailer. And we distinguish two kinds of effect from online reviews: effect of the opinion bias in product quality and effect of the match informativeness. Furthermore, compared to the case without online reviews, we find online reviews improve a manufacturer’s optimal wholesale price, profit as well as the retailer’s optimal retailing price, when the adjusted quality revealed by reviews is high; however, online reviews can improve the e-tailer’s optimal profit, only when the standard deviation of products’ quality revealed by reviews is large enough. Last, we get that the increase of competing manufacturers’ quantity would change the dominance between two kinds of effect from reviews on supply chain members.     

消费者碳敏感情形下的竞争性低碳采购策略

在消费者碳敏感情形下,研究了竞争制造商的采购策略选择问题.建立了两个制造商分别选择生产策略或低碳采购策略的四种模型,得到了最优零售价格,批发价格以及供应链各方的最优利润.研究发现:较低的消费者碳敏感度会促使制造商均选择生产模式,使双方陷入囚徒困境.当消费者碳敏感度适中且碳减排差异较大时,制造商均选择低碳采购并实现Pareto改进.然而,当消费者碳敏感度较高且碳减排差异较小时,均衡策略为制造商选择差异化的生产模式,     

Coordination of a fashion and textile supply chain with demand variations

Owing to the changing fashion trends and a volatile market situation,demand in fashion and textile (FT) industry is unpredictable and could vary and change completely in a short time,which makes it more difficult to coordinate a FT supply chain.A change in product preference due to fashion trends is the main reason why the demand of FT industry shows more variations than other industries.In this paper,we use a well known contract,the all-unit quantity discount policy(AQDP),to coordinate a FT supply chain with certain demand,and we further consider it under the demand variations scenario to investigate whether it can still coordinate the supply chain.In detail,before the selling season,an AQDP is provided by the manufacturer to the retailer,and under which the FT supply chain coordination achieved with a certain demand.During the selling season,demand variation is realized after an abrupt changing of fashion trends,therefore,the manufacturer may need to revise the original AQDP to insure the supply chain is still coordinated.Utilizing the mechanism design theory,we prove that:(i) while the traditional AQDP can coordinate the supply chain when no demand variations,it cannot always coordinate the supply chain after the demand variations;(ii) when the AQDP fails,we can use the proposed capacitated linear pricing policy(CLPP) to achieve a new coordination;(iii) a more dominant decision maker,who can set a higher profit goal,is favorable to stabilization of the supply chain system under demand variations.Numerical examples are proposed also to show our results.     

The Jointed Decision Model on a Newsboy-type Ordering and Pricing for Retailer

This paper deals with the jointed decision question on ordering and pricing for a short-life-cycle product under stochastic multiplicative demand depended selling price. According to the marketing practices, which retailers sell their products in different periods with the different marketing policies, we depict the jointed decision question with a stochastic dynamic programming model from the view of the centralized system. Then, we prove that the expected profit function are concave on decision vectors respectively, and develop the decision method for ordering and pricing. Lastly, we design the iterative search arithmetic to find the optimal decision vectors.     

现货流动性不对等环境下多渠道供应链均衡决策

阐述了中国电子交易市场现货买卖流动性不对等的特点. 基于固定合约、电子交易市场的期权交易和现货交易三种交易方式，研究了单一生产商、单一零售商和第三方电子交易市场组成的多渠道供应链均衡决策问题，讨论了生产商的固定合约最优定价策略和零售商的多渠道最优采购策略，分析了不对等的现货流动性对供应链均衡策略的影响，并通过数值算例分别讨论了现货买入流动性和现货卖出流动性对参与者行为的影响. 结论表明，现货流动性的提高可以带来供应链整体效益的提升；零售商更偏好现货买入流动性好的市场，并随之减少合约订购量和期初总预定量；而现货卖出 流动性好的市场则对生产商更为有利，会同时抬高生产商的固定合约定价和零售商的合约订购量.     

存在策略消费者的动态定价策略

在线零售商能够方便地提供历史价格和未来价格预期以供消费者参考,但这种为消费者提供的便利同时给零售商的动 态定价带来困难,聪明的消费者会根据未来产品的价格以及历史参考价格做出购买与否的判断,给零售商的利润带来很大的 影响. 论文将消费者的策略性行为和参考价格效应结合,准确地描述消费者在历史和预期价格影响下零售商的动态定价策略,建立了多阶段动态定价策略模型,并针对两阶段简化为正常价和清仓价的模型,给出两种不同的价格策略以及实施的前提条件,讨论了两阶段最优价格和期望最大利润跟消费者效用折扣因子、策略性消费者所占比例、消费者对历史价格的依赖程度的关系,结论表明忽视消费者策略行为以及价格参考效应会给零售商带来较大的负面影响.