Drought sensitivity shapes species distribution patterns in tropical forests

Although patterns of tree species distributions along environmental gradients have been amply documented in tropical forests, mechanisms causing these patterns are seldom known. Efforts to evaluate proposed mechanisms have been hampered by a lack of comparative data on species' reactions to relevant axes of environmental variation. Here we show that differential drought sensitivity shapes plant distributions in tropical forests at both regional and local scales. Our analyses are based on experimental field assessments of drought sensitivity of 48 species of trees and shrubs, and on their local and regional distributions within a network of 122 inventory sites spanning a rainfall gradient across the Isthmus of Panama. Our results suggest that niche differentiation with respect to soil water availability is a direct determinant of both local- and regional-scale distributions of tropical trees. Changes in soil moisture availability caused by global climate change and forest fragmentation are therefore likely to alter tropical species distributions, community composition and diversity.     

降雨模式对树坪滑坡稳定性影响分析

降雨是诱发滑坡失稳的重要因素,依据饱和-非饱和及斜坡稳定性分析理论,基于等量的降雨量和降雨时间,按照实际库水位调度和降雨集中时间分为三种工况:工况一,稳定水位145 m;工况二,175 m水位线经150 d降到145 m水位线;工况三,145 m水位线经60 d升到175 m水位线,采用Geo-studio软件模拟三峡库区树坪滑坡在不同工况中减弱型、增强型、集中型、平均型4种降雨模式下的降雨入渗过程和稳定性。探讨了树坪滑坡孔隙水压力随时间的变化规律,以及树坪滑坡稳定系数与时间的变化关系。结果表明:降雨模式对树坪滑坡降雨入渗和稳定性有明显的影响,除工况二下水位继续降低作用外,其他二种工况下减弱型降雨模式水位线变化早于其他三种模式,库水位的变动能改变降雨模式对滑坡水位线的影响;降雨模式和库水位变动的双重作用下降雨入渗也发生了明显的变化;滑坡的初始安全系数都在1.2以上,而在工况二下滑坡的安全系数都降到1.2以下,尤其是减弱型模式下滑坡安全系数降幅最大。     

Coral reef diversity refutes the neutral theory of biodiversity

The global decline of coral reefs highlights the need to understand the mechanisms that regulate community structure and sustain biodiversity in these systems. The neutral theory, which assumes that individuals are demographically identical regardless of species, seeks to explain ubiquitous features of community structure and biodiversity patterns. Here we present a test of neutral-theory predictions with the use of an extensive species-level data set of Indo-Pacific coral communities. We show that coral assemblages differ markedly from neutral-model predictions for patterns of community similarity and the relative abundance of species. Within local communities, neutral models do not fit relative abundance distributions as well as the classical log-normal distribution. Relative abundances of species across local communities also differ markedly from neutral-theory predictions: coral communities exhibit community similarity values that are far more variable, and lower on average, than the neutral theory can produce. Empirical community similarities deviate from the neutral model in a direction opposite to that predicted in previous critiques of the neutral theory. Instead, our results support spatio-temporal environmental stochasticity as a major driver of diversity patterns on coral reefs.     

Local interactions predict large-scale pattern in empirically derived cellular automata.

An important unanswered question in ecology is whether processes such as species interactions that occur at a local scale can generate large-scale patterns seen in nature. Because of the complexity of natural ecosystems, developing an adequate theoretical framework to scale up local processes has been challenging. Models of complex systems can produce a wide array of outcomes; therefore, model parameter values must be constrained by empirical information to usefully narrow the range of predicted behaviour. Under some conditions, spatially explicit models of locally interacting objects (for example, cells, sand grains, car drivers, or organisms), variously termed cellular automata or interacting particle models, can self-organize to develop complex spatial and temporal patterning at larger scales in the absence of any externally imposed pattern. When these models are based on transition probabilities of moving between ecological states at a local level, relatively complex versions of these models can be linked readily to empirical information on ecosystem dynamics. Here, I show that an empirically derived cellular automaton model of a rocky intertidal mussel bed based on local interactions correctly predicts large-scale spatial patterns observed in nature.     

Optimizing the success of random searches.

We address the general question of what is the best statistical strategy to adapt in order to search efficiently for randomly located objects ('target sites'). It is often assumed in foraging theory that the flight lengths of a forager have a characteristic scale: from this assumption gaussian, Rayleigh and other classical distributions with well-defined variances have arisen. However, such theories cannot explain the long-tailed power-law distributions of flight lengths or flight times that are observed experimentally. Here we study how the search efficiency depends on the probability distribution of flight lengths taken by a forager that can detect target sites only in its limited vicinity. We show that, when the target sites are sparse and can be visited any number of times, an inverse square power-law distribution of flight lengths, corresponding to Lévy flight motion, is an optimal strategy. We test the theory by analysing experimental foraging data on selected insect, mammal and bird species, and find that they are consistent with the predicted inverse square power-law distributions.     

网络论坛人类行为动力学实证分析

从帖子和用户两个角度对网络论坛的人类行为动力学特征进行实证统计和分析.对帖子属性的统计分析发现,帖子的回复次数、吸引的不同用户数均服从幂律分布,而帖子的浏览次数分布没有明显的规律性;帖子的浏览次数和回复次数之间存在明显的正相关性,且二者的比值大于等于10.对用户发帖、回帖行为的统计分析发现,用户发帖数、回帖数、回复的不同主帖数均服从幂律分布,说明网络论坛用户行为具有很强的异质性,大多数用户很少发帖或回帖,关注范围也比较小,只有少数活跃用户经常发帖或回帖,关注面非常广;还发现单个用户单日回帖数以及单个用户针对单个主帖的回复数也均服从幂律分布,存在少数用户在个别日子里发表大量回帖和少数用户针对少量主帖发表大量回帖的现象.这些结论对于在线用户行为建模具有重要的指导意义,也为网络舆情监控和网络水军发现提供了新的思路.     

Soil pathogens and spatial patterns of seedling mortality in a temperate tree

The Janzen-Connell hypothesis proposes that host-specific, distance- and/or density-dependent predators and herbivores maintain high tree diversity in tropical forests. Negative feedback between plant and soil communities could be a more effective mechanism promoting species coexistence because soil pathogens can increase rapidly in the presence of their host, causing conditions unfavourable for local conspecific recruitment. Here we show that a soil pathogen leads to patterns of seedling mortality in a temperate tree (Prunus serotina) as predicted by the Janzen-Connell hypothesis. In the field, the mean distance to parent of seedling cohorts shifted away from maternal trees over a period of 3 years. Seedlings were grown in soil collected 0-5 m or 25-30 m from Prunus trees. Sterilization of soil collected beneath trees improved seedling survival relative to unsterilized soil, whereas sterilization of distant soil did not affect survival. Pythium spp., isolated from roots of dying seedlings and used to inoculate healthy seedlings, decreased survival by 65% relative to controls. Our results provide the most complete evidence that native pathogens influence tree distributions, as predicted by the Janzen-Connell hypothesis, and suggest that similar ecological mechanisms operate in tropical and temperate forests.     

Field parameterization and experimental test of the neutral theory of biodiversity

Ecologists would like to explain general patterns observed across multi-species communities, such as species-area and abundance-frequency relationships, in terms of the fundamental processes of birth, death and migration underlying the dynamics of all constituent species. The unified neutral theory of biodiversity and related theories based on these fundamental population processes have successfully recreated general species-abundance patterns without accounting for either the variation among species and individuals or resource-releasing processes such as predation and disturbance, long emphasized in ecological theory. If ecological communities can be described adequately without estimating variation in species and their interactions, our understanding of ecological community organization and the predicted consequences of reduced biodiversity and environmental change would shift markedly. Here, I introduce a strong method to test the neutral theory that combines field parameterization of the underlying population dynamics with a field experiment, and apply it to a rocky intertidal community. Although the observed abundance-frequency distribution of the system follows that predicted by the neutral theory, the neutral theory predicts poorly the field experimental results, indicating an essential role for variation in species interactions.     

Balance between facilitation and competition determines spatial patterns in a plant population

A considerable challenge in plant ecology is to understand how interactions,such as competition or facilitation,shape the spatial distribution of plants.The‘‘stress gradient hypothesis’’predicts that facilitation and competition will vary inversely across gradients of abiotic stress or consumer pressure.Surprisingly,few previous studies have explored how the balance between facilitation and competition affects spatial patterns along gradients of stress in a plant population based on field experiments.In order to investigate the effects of consumer pressure,facilitation,and competition on the spatial pattern of plant populations,we conducted a restoration succession series field experiment in the Inner Mongolian steppe in which sample sites of graded consumer pressure,specifically grazing stress,were established.We chose to examine the spatial patterns of Leymus chinensis,a dominant species in our experimental site.In order to test the‘‘stress gradient hypothesis,’’we applied the univariate O-ring statistic to analyze local neighborhood density at different spatial scales.We used the pair-correlation function to detect the characteristics of point patterns using complete spatial randomness,the Poisson cluster process,and the nested double-cluster process.We found that the local densities of L.chinensis were higher under high stress than lower stress environments.This demonstrated the‘‘stress gradient hypothesis’’in that facilitation and competition varied inversely across gradients of consumer pressure.However,we found nodifferences in the spatial patterns of L.chinensis based on complete spatial randomness when interactions shifted from facilitation to competition along gradients of consumer pressure.Furthermore,we detected the characteristics of point patterns using the Poisson cluster and nested doublecluster processes.The results showed the spatial patterns of L.chinensis to fit well with the nested double-cluster model under highly stressful conditions,while in lower stress environments they were best approximated by the Thomas process.Our results illustrate that a shift in interactions from facilitation to competition along gradients of consumer pressure can shape spatial patterns and that a combination of the Poisson cluster process and nested doublecluster process can detect spatial pattern characteristics which cannot be detected by complete spatial randomness.     

预应力混凝土斜拉桥主梁局部应力子模型分析及试验

为掌握预应力混凝土斜拉桥主梁在运营荷载作用下的受力情况,根据其构造特点,将结构划分为2个结构体系,分别建立整体结构尺度模型和局部构件尺度模型,并采用子模型法进行跨尺度模型的衔接.以五河口斜拉桥的预应力混凝土主梁为例,进行了车轮荷载作用下的主梁局部应力分析,与该桥成桥静载试验的测试结果对比表明,计算结果与试验结果吻合良好,说明该计算分析方法实用、可行,从而为进行预应力混凝土斜拉桥在运营荷载作用下的受力特性分析提供了一种便捷、可行的途径.     

幂律流体管内充分发展的对流换热分析

将非牛顿流体的动量方程、能量方程和幂律流体的本构方程相结合 ,建立了幂律流体管内流动和换热充分发展时的对流换热控制方程组 ,并在恒热流和恒壁温边界条件下分别对方程组进行了求解 ,得到了两种不同边界条件下的温度分布和无量纲对流换热系数 (Nu数 )的表达式。结果表明 ,幂律流体的流变指数对流体流动的影响要大于对换热的影响 ;在恒热流边界条件下 ,幂律流体的温度在管内沿轴向呈线性分布 ;而在恒壁温条件下 ,其截面平均温度沿轴向呈指数规律变化。幂律流体的无量纲对流换热系数与幂律流体的流变指数有关 ,并且在两种边界条件下 ,均随着流变指数的增加而减小     

Spatial vegetation patterns and imminent desertification in Mediterranean arid ecosystems

Humans and climate affect ecosystems and their services, which may involve continuous and discontinuous transitions from one stable state to another. Discontinuous transitions are abrupt, irreversible and among the most catastrophic changes of ecosystems identified. For terrestrial ecosystems, it has been hypothesized that vegetation patchiness could be used as a signature of imminent transitions. Here, we analyse how vegetation patchiness changes in arid ecosystems with different grazing pressures, using both field data and a modelling approach. In the modelling approach, we extrapolated our analysis to even higher grazing pressures to investigate the vegetation patchiness when desertification is imminent. In three arid Mediterranean ecosystems in Spain, Greece and Morocco, we found that the patch-size distribution of the vegetation follows a power law. Using a stochastic cellular automaton model, we show that local positive interactions among plants can explain such power-law distributions. Furthermore, with increasing grazing pressure, the field data revealed consistent deviations from power laws. Increased grazing pressure leads to similar deviations in the model. When grazing was further increased in the model, we found that these deviations always and only occurred close to transition to desert, independent of the type of transition, and regardless of the vegetation cover. Therefore, we propose that patch-size distributions may be a warning signal for the onset of desertification.     

基于Ising模型的股票价格统计特征及模拟

根据统计物理中的Ising模型和极限理论,研究证券市场中股票价格的统计规律.通过建立相应的金融收益模型,构造出股价的随机过程.再利用计算机模拟股票价格收益率的分布特征,模型很好的刻画了现实证券市场中股票收益率分布的宽尾现象、长记忆性,以及累积分布中尾部收益的指数递减现象.     

Reproductive pair correlations and the clustering of organisms.

Clustering of organisms can be a consequence of social behaviour, or of the response of individuals to chemical and physical cues. Environmental variability can also cause clustering: for example, marine turbulence transports plankton and produces chlorophyll concentration patterns in the upper ocean. Even in a homogeneous environment, nonlinear interactions between species can result in spontaneous pattern formation. Here we show that a population of independent, random-walking organisms ('brownian bugs'), reproducing by binary division and dying at constant rates, spontaneously aggregates. Using an individual-based model, we show that clusters form out of spatially homogeneous initial conditions without environmental variability, predator-prey interactions, kinesis or taxis. The clustering mechanism is reproductively driven-birth must always be adjacent to a living organism. This clustering can overwhelm diffusion and create non-poissonian correlations between pairs (parent and offspring) or organisms, leading to the emergence of patterns.     

基于Mike Farmer委托驱动模型的研究

Mike-Farmer微观模型是功能强大的委托驱动模型,能再现很多经典的统计规律.本文介绍了Mike-Farmer委托驱动模型的构建过程,Mike-Farmer委托驱动模型生成的收益率,发现收益率在不同时间尺度下遵循幂律分布,服从负三次方定律.以Mike-Farmer委托驱动模型为平台,进行收益率幂律分布和波动率聚簇效应的成因研究,发现收益率的幂律分布和市价订单委托价格的概率分布相关,而波动率的聚簇效应与订单委托价格时间序列的时间记忆性保持一致性.最后简要介绍了模型的应用前景.     

Variance in ecological consumer-resource interactions

Food-web models use the effect size of trophic interactions to predict consumer-resource dynamics. These models anticipate that strong effects of consumers increase spatial and temporal variability in abundance of species, whereas weak effects dampen fluctuations. Empirical evidence indicates that opposite patterns may occur in natural assemblages. Here I show that spatial variance in the distribution of resource populations is sensitive to changes in the variance of the trophic interaction, in addition to the mean effect of consumers, relative to other causes of spatial variability. Simulations indicate that both strong and weak direct effects of consumers can promote spatial variability in abundance of resources, but only trophic interactions with a large mean effect size can reduce variation. Predictions of the model agree with the results of repeated field experiments and are consistent with data from published consumer-resource interactions, proving to be robust across widely varying environmental conditions and species' life histories. Thus, food-web models that embody variance in trophic interactions may have increased capacity to explain the wide range of effects of consumers documented in empirical studies.     

Adaptation varies through space and time in a coevolving host-parasitoid interaction

One of the central challenges of evolutionary biology is to understand how coevolution organizes biodiversity over complex geographic landscapes. Most species are collections of genetically differentiated populations, and these populations have the potential to become adapted to their local environments in different ways. The geographic mosaic theory of coevolution incorporates this idea by proposing that spatial variation in natural selection and gene flow across a landscape can shape local coevolutionary dynamics. These effects may be particularly strong when populations differ across productivity gradients, where gene flow will often be asymmetric among populations. Conclusive empirical tests of this theory have been particularly difficult to perform because they require knowledge of patterns of gene flow, historical population relationships and local selection pressures. We have tested these predictions empirically using a model community of bacteria and bacteriophage (viral parasitoids of bacteria). We show that gene flow across a spatially structured landscape alters coevolution of parasitoids and their hosts and that the resulting patterns of adaptation can fluctuate in both space and time.     

兴安落叶松林降雨再分配及其穿透雨的空间异质性

【目的】探究大兴安岭北部兴安落叶松林对降雨的截留再分配及树冠下穿透雨空间分布规律,了解兴安落叶松林生态水文过程。【方法】通过长期定位观测研究的方法,获取了2013年兴安落叶松林19场降雨事件的林外降雨、穿透雨和树干径流的观测数据,采用相关分析,总结了兴安落叶松林降雨再分配规律,比较了树冠下不同位置处穿透雨的变异性。【结果】观测期内兴安落叶松林的林冠截留量、穿透雨量和树干径流量依次为35.14、148.61和0.250 7 mm,分别占大气降雨量的19.10%、80.77%和0.14%; 不同降雨事件中,树冠不同位置处的穿透雨具有空间异质性; 当降雨量、温度等气象因子一致时,3/4树冠半径处的穿透雨变异最小,树冠外缘(4/4树冠半径处)变异最大; 当冠层结构稳定时,穿透雨的变异程度均随降雨量的增加而减小,二者呈一定的负相关性(P<0.01)。【结论】穿透雨是兴安落叶松林降雨再分配的主要水文分量(约占降雨量的81%),选择变异最小、最接近林分穿透雨率(误差约1%)的3/4树冠半径处布设穿透雨收集装置,能够适当减少野外工作量,提高科研观测效率,可为落叶松林区森林水文模型的参数化提供依据。     

High-resolution subsurface water-ice distributions on Mars

Theoretical models indicate that water ice is stable in the shallow subsurface (depths of <1-2 m) of Mars at high latitudes. These models have been mainly supported by the observed presence of large concentrations of hydrogen detected by the Gamma Ray Spectrometer suite of instruments on the Mars Odyssey spacecraft. The models and measurements are consistent with a water-ice table that steadily increases in depth with decreasing latitude. More detailed modelling has predicted that the depth at which water ice is stable can be highly variable, owing to local surface heterogeneities such as rocks and slopes, and the thermal inertia of the ground cover. Measurements have, however, been limited to the footprint (several hundred kilometres) of the Gamma Ray Spectrometer suite, preventing the observations from documenting more detailed water-ice distributions. Here I show that by observing the seasonal temperature response of the martian surface with the Thermal Emission Imaging System on the Mars Odyssey spacecraft, it is possible to observe such heterogeneities at subkilometre scale. These observations show significant regional and local water-ice depth variability, and, in some cases, support distributions in the subsurface predicted by atmospheric exchange and vapour diffusion models. The presence of water ice where it follows the depth of stability under current climatic conditions implies an active martian water cycle that responds to orbit-driven climate cycles. Several regions also have apparent deviations from the theoretical stability level, indicating that additional factors influence the ice-table depth. The high-resolution measurements show that the depth to the water-ice table is highly variable within the potential Phoenix spacecraft landing ellipses, and is likely to be variable at scales that may be sampled by the spacecraft.     

Coral communities are regionally enriched along an oceanic biodiversity gradient

Ecological communities are influenced by processes operating at multiple scales. Thus, a better understanding of how broad- as well as local-scale processes affect species diversity and richness is increasingly becoming a central focus in modern community ecology. Here, in a study of unprecedented geographical scope, we show significant regional and local variation in the species richness of coral assemblages across an oceanic biodiversity gradient. The gradient that we sampled extends 10,000 km eastwards from the world's richest coral biodiversity hotspot in the central Indo-Pacific. Local richness and the size of regional species pools decline significantly across 15 islands spanning the gradient. In addition, richness declines across three adjacent habitats (reef slopes, crests and flats). In each habitat, a highly consistent linear relationship between local and regional species richness indicates strong regional enrichment. Thus, even on the most diverse coral reefs in the world, local coral assemblages are profoundly affected by regional-scale processes. Understanding these historical and biogeographical influences is essential for the effective management and preservation of these endangered communities.