美国约翰霍普金斯大学大流行模拟研究分析及启示与建议

为推动政府和公众关注潜在的传染病威胁,提升政府在大型传染病暴发时的应急管理能力,美国约翰霍普金斯大学健康安全中心已先后4次举办传染病演习模拟研究活动。本文详细分析这4次演习活动的背景、过程和政策成果,结合我国在应对新型冠状病毒肺炎工作中积累的经验和教训提出建议,包括:1)完善建设国家和地方各级疾病控制体系; 2)完善公共卫生事件大数据管理信息体系建设; 3)公共卫生领域的智库要加强前瞻性公共卫生战略与政策研究; 4)政府部门需要高度重视公共卫生领域各种传染病预警和应对策略研究; 5)建立应对重大突发公共卫生事件的医疗物资战略储备; 6)加强人口健康和公共卫生安全领域的科研创新; 7)积极在全球生物安全和公共卫生领域发挥中国影响力。     

应急系统中数据收集与库设计

介绍应急系统中数据库设计思想、方法;分析了应急系统中所需的数据信息以及开发该应急系统所应建立的数据库;同时,还研究了应急系统中各数据库的相应属性及数据库之间所存在的联系。其目的是为了更好的收集、整理、共享处理应急突发事件时所需的各种数据信息,并将其以库的形式存储起来,为应急指挥部提供准确、具体的信息,为快速响应、协调行动提供信息基础。     

环境污染应急系统中决策方案设计研究

环境污染已严重威胁着人民生命和财产的安全,制约了国家经济可持续发展能力.鉴于此问题,给出了环境污染应急系统的组织机构及其主要职责;详细分析了环境污染应急处理系统信息流向及其各环节中的信息处理事务;给出了环境污染的各种类型方式;探讨了应急系统中专家成员库、物资资源库、地理信息库、污染类型库及其它相关数据库的设计规范,解决了应急决策中数据支持问题;研究了影响制订工程抢险、人员调度、物资调度、污染治理、伤亡救助、交通线路选择、治安保卫等决策方案的各种因素,为形成正确的决策方案提供了理论上的支持,进一步地为应急系统提供了技术保障.     

对中美科技创新资源配置模式的比较与认识——基于美国智库主要观点的辨析

近期，美国智库通过横向比较中美科技进展，认为美国科技创新总体呈现弱化态势，并提出了相应建议。本文研究发现，与过去主要针对我国科技具体领域或个别政策跟踪的做法不同，美国智库近年越来越注重比较中美的科技创新资源配置方式，以制定针对中国优势的机制化策略。从美方实际政策动向以及智库的主要观点看，以“模式”应对“模式”正在成为中美科技创新博弈的重要动向。通过客观分析美国智库的主要观点以及中国在科技创新资源总体配置方面的进展与差距，建议强化国家战略科技力量，优化我国科技创新机制；调整研发投入与政策，培育世界顶尖级科技企业；优化国有创投基金运作机制；深化创新链合作治理，共建安全有序的国际数字空间共同体。     

从近年科技投入变化看美国科技政策的变化

美国能够成为世界头号科技大国，其科技政策功不可没。近年来，美国不断调整其科技政策以保证站在世界的最前列，这可以从美国在科技中投入的不断变化看出来。本文基于冷战结束至今美国在科技中投入的变化，分析了美国科技政策十几年来的变化特点。     

美国信息通信产业近20年发展态势分析及启示

随着全球新一轮产业迭代升级的推进,信息通信产业逐步成为决定技术演进趋势、影响前沿产业生态乃至国家核心竞争力和创新能力的关键因素。本文以典型科技强国美国为研究对象,对21世纪以来的近20年美国信息通信产业发展态势和趋势进行详细的定量梳理分析。研究结果表明,信息通信产业发展态势良好,国际贸易市场广阔,经济社会效益显著,细分行业发展差异较大,国家政策、科技创新对其发展具有重要驱动作用。未来产业发展将更加注重产业服务、个人互联网市场、量子安全通信、卫星互联网、产业互联网发展以及优势领域保护等。基于此,结合我国发展实际,从产业创新战略规划及创新政策、制造业与服务业融合发展、5G技术产品的终端应用、科技创新投入与产业核心技术、标准与品牌战略、产业国际循环等方面,提出了对中国信息通信产业发展的启示与建议,以推动网络强国建设。     

中美医学科学研究体系与管理分析

中关医学科学研究体系与管理有以下特点：(1)资助和管理的政府机构，我国主要有国家科学技术部、国家自然科学基金委员会和国家卫生部；美国主要是国立卫生院(National Institutes of Health，NIH)。(2)项目的资助模式上，我国为“3 2”计划体系，即三大项目体系(国家高技术研究发展项目计划，国家科技攻关计划和基础研究计划)和两大科技平台条件建设体系(研究开发条件建设计划和科技产业化环境建设计划)，不同基金资助基础到产业化研究的不同阶段和类别；NIH基金按疾病领域、经费和院内、外研究机构，从基础、应用基础和平台条件建设以及产业化整体系统资助。(3)管理和运行模式上，我国有两种模式，一是国家部委到地方科委再到高校和科研院所，二是国家部委直接到各高校和科研院所；NIH直接到高校和各科研院所。(4)基金的构成特点上，我国医学科学研究来自三大项目和两大条件计划体系的每个部分，申请项目必须根据项目研究的不同性质和阶段找准计划体系中不同计划的特定资助方向；NIH基金系统支持医学研究的各个领域和不同研究阶段。(5)经费的投入上，我国医学科研经费投入约占总科研经费投入的20％左右，历年投入总和只相当于NIH一年经费的几十分之一。(6)规划计划上，NIH宏观和微观相结合，研究领域和战略有机统一，将分子医学作为未来10年的方向，面向未来的人才建设和重铸临床研究作为研究战略，科学性和学术性强。     

浅析美国联邦政府科研经费管理

作为财政研发投入最高的国家,美国在政府科研经费的管理方面建立了完善的管理制度。本文从政府科研经费管理的全过程——科技经费管理体制、研发预算编制、各部门研发经费管理、科技计划（项目）经费管理以及基于绩效的经费管理分析了美国政府科研经费的管理制度,从而为我国完善政府科技经费管理提供借鉴。     

汶川特大地震灾后基础教育重建的系统分析

分析了汶川特大地震对灾区基础教育造成的严重破坏,提出了以构建“教育系统工程”的方式来重建灾区的基础教育。从战略和战术层面提出了基础教育重建思路,以WSR—Hall三维结构体系、投入产出模型和PERT网络技术为方法基础,分灾后基础教育重建准备和全面重建两个步骤进行。重建的内容包括了教育应急机制的建立、教育重建投入预测和全面重建框架的建立三个方面,并结合灾区重建的实倒进行了论证,以期为灾后基础教育提供系统工程的重建模式。     

全球转基因抗虫玉米专利布局及对我国的发展建议

转基因抗虫玉米在我国具有良好商业化应用前景，通过分析其全球专利布局，以厘清全球转基因抗虫玉米技术研发格局、洞悉技术发展趋势，明确我国该领域技术发展差距，为合理部署我国转基因抗虫玉米技术创新，有序推进其产业化发展、完善知识产权布局与保护，提供数据支撑。基于专利信息，采用文献计量法从时间、地域和研发主体等维度梳理全球转基因抗虫玉米技术研发格局，通过文本聚类和技术发展路线分析，明晰转基因抗虫玉米技术研发热点、发展历程及未来发展趋势。结果显示，当前全球转基因抗虫玉米技术研发趋于成熟，美国和中国是主要技术来源国，美国在专利规模、全球化布局和产业化发展方面优势显著，国际种业巨头专利储备丰富，布局地域广泛。表达载体构建是该领域的重点技术，多重抗虫基因组成的嵌合基因和多抗虫基因表达盒组合是其未来发展方向。我国在专利申请规模、全球化布局和产业化发展方面尚有差距，在表达载体构建和检测方法方面的专利布局仍有不足。建议我国以基因表达载体构建技术为重点优化技术研发布局、积极培育种企创新能力强化其创新主体地位，进一步提升知识产权保护水平及全球化布局战略意识。     

Biological weapons

In the last 2 decades, successive outbreaks caused by new, newly recognised and resurgent pathogens, and the risk that high-consequence pathogens might be used as bioterrorism agents amply demonstrated the need to enhance capacity in clinical and public health management of highly infectious diseases. In this article we review these recent and current threats to public health, whether naturally occurring or caused by accidental or intentional release. Moreover, we discuss some components of hospital preparedness for, and response to, infectious disease of the emergencies in developed countries. The issues of clinical awareness and education, initial investigation and management, surge capacity, communication, and caring for staff and others affected by the emergency are discussed. We also emphasise the importance of improving the everyday practice of infection control by healthcare professionals.     

The intriguing prion disorders

Prion diseases are among the most intriguing illnesses. Despite their rare incidence, they have captured enormous attention from the scientific community and general public. One of the most hotly debated issues in these diseases is the nature of the infectious material. In recent years increasing evidence has emerged supporting the protein-only hypothesis of prion transmission. In this model PrPSc (the pathological isoform of the prion protein, PrPC) represents the sole component of the infectious particle. However, uncertainties about possible additional factors involved in the conversion of PrPC into PrPSc remain despite extensive attempts to isolate and characterize these elusive components. In this article, we review recent developments concerning the protein-only hypothesis as well as the possible involvement of cellular factors in PrPC to PrPSc conformational change and their influence on the pathogenesis of prion diseases.     

Biological weapons

Adequate public health preparedness for bioterrorism includes the elaboration of an agreed list of biological and chemical agents that might be used in an attack or as threats of deliberate release. In the absence of counterterrorism intelligence information, public health authorities can also base their preparedness on the agents for which the national health structures would be most vulnerable. This article aims to describe a logical method and the characteristics of the variables to be brought in a weighing process to reach a priority list for preparedness. The European Union, in the aftermath of the anthrax events of October 2001 in the United States, set up a task force of experts from multiple member states to elaborate and implement a health security programme. One of the first tasks of this task force was to come up with a list of priority threats. The model, presented here, allows Web-based updates for newly identified agents and for the changes occurring in preventive measures for agents already listed. The same model also allows the identification of priority protection action areas.     

我国高铁社会效益指标体系研究

通过对中国北车等企业的实地调研,以及对国家发改委、铁道部、高校各专家的访谈,本文总结出高铁在带动相关产业发展、时间效益、节能环保、舒适性、安全性、满足多层次出行需求、提高应急运送能力、公众自豪感8个方面的社会效益,并且按照科学性、可比性、可操作性的原则,细化了高铁8个社会效益1级指标相应的2级衡量指标,构建了我国高铁社会效益评估的指标体系。     

Regulation of myelopoiesis by proinflammatory cytokines in infectious diseases

Hematopoiesis is hierarchically orchestrated by a very small population of hematopoietic stem cells (HSCs) that reside in the bone-marrow niche and are tightly regulated to maintain homeostatic blood production. HSCs are predominantly quiescent, but they enter the cell cycle in response to inflammatory signals evoked by severe systemic infection or injury. Thus, hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs) can be activated by pathogen recognition receptors and proinflammatory cytokines to induce emergency myelopoiesis during infection. This emergency myelopoiesis counterbalances the loss of cells and generates lineage-restricted hematopoietic progenitors, eventually replenishing mature myeloid cells to control the infection. Controlled generation of such signals effectively augments host defense, but dysregulated stimulation by these signals is harmful to HSPCs. Such hematopoietic failure often results in blood disorders including chronic inflammatory diseases and hematological malignancies. Recently, we found that interleukin (IL)-27, one of the IL-6/IL-12 family cytokines, has a unique ability to directly act on HSCs and promote their expansion and differentiation into myeloid progenitors. This process resulted in enhanced production of neutrophils by emergency myelopoiesis during the blood-stage mouse malaria infection. In this review, we summarize recent advances in the regulation of myelopoiesis by proinflammatory cytokines including type I and II interferons, IL-6, IL-27, granulocyte colony-stimulating factor, macrophage colony-stimulating factor, and IL-1 in infectious diseases.     

实用化光纤量子加密电话网络和高速数据传输系统——现场应用与安全管理

本文以如何应用量子通信技术满足现场应用和安全管理需求为出发点,以国内最近完成的一个在现场光纤网络上搭建的多节点量子加密电话网络和高速数据传输系统为实例,具体分析了为满足现场应用和安全管理的需求,实用化光纤量子通信系统所采用设计方案,并简单介绍了该系统实施和长期运行情况.该系统满足了重要事务对于不同应用形式及高安全等级通信的需求,并验证了实际应用环境下的可靠性和易用性,具有很好的代表性.本文也对量子通信系统应用于公共管理提出了建议.     

Yeast prions and human prion-like proteins: sequence features and prediction methods

Prions are self-propagating infectious protein isoforms. A growing number of prions have been identified in yeast, each resulting from the conversion of soluble proteins into an insoluble amyloid form. These yeast prions have served as a powerful model system for studying the causes and consequences of prion aggregation. Remarkably, a number of human proteins containing prion-like domains, defined as domains with compositional similarity to yeast prion domains, have recently been linked to various human degenerative diseases, including amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. This suggests that the lessons learned from yeast prions may help in understanding these human diseases. In this review, we examine what has been learned about the amino acid sequence basis for prion aggregation in yeast, and how this information has been used to develop methods to predict aggregation propensity. We then discuss how this information is being applied to understand human disease, and the challenges involved in applying yeast prediction methods to higher organisms.     

Forecasting with Micro Panels: The Case of Health Care Costs

Micro panels characterized by large numbers of individuals observed over a short time period provide a rich source of information, but as yet there is only limited experience in using such data for forecasting. Existing simulation evidence supports the use of a fixed‐effects approach when forecasting but it is not based on a truly micro panel set‐up. In this study, we exploit the linkage of a representative survey of more than 250,000 Australians aged 45 and over to 4 years of hospital, medical and pharmaceutical records. The availability of panel health cost data allows the use of predictors based on fixed‐effects estimates designed to guard against possible omitted variable biases associated with unobservable individual specific effects. We demonstrate the preference towards fixed‐effects‐based predictors is unlikely to hold in many practical situations, including our models of health care costs. Simulation evidence with a micro panel set‐up adds support and additional insights to the results obtained in the application. These results are supportive of the use of the ordinary least squares predictor in a wide range of circumstances. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Towards new β-lactam antibiotics

Antibiotics have had a profound impact on human health and belong to one of the largest-selling classes of drugs worldwide. Introduced into industrial production only some half century ago, these miracle drugs have been the main contributors to the recent increase in human life expectancy. However, the accelerated emergence of bacteria that are resistant to multiple antibiotic types now appears as the most serious threat to continuing success in the treatment of infectious diseases. Recent advances in our knowledge of the structures and mechanisms of enzymes in the biosynthetic pathways of penicillins and cephalosporins, amongst the most important antibiotics in current use, have identified a common structural core together with common iron- and cosubstrate-binding motifs. The diversity in the catalytic specificities of these oxygenases using very similar structural platforms suggests that altering the substrate and product specificities of these enzymes should be possible in the laboratory. This opens up new avenues for industrial production and medical utilisation.     

Biological role of major transplantation antigens in T cell self-recognition

Summary The proposal is made, illustrated and supported by experimental evidence that T cell-mediated immunopathology triggered initially by low- or non-cytopathic infectious agents may cause diseases, susceptibility to which is linked to the major histocompatibility gene complex.This summary is an updated version of the paper given on the occasion of the Paul Ehrlich Prize ceremonies in 1983; it was also presented at the meeting New Trends in Allergy II in München 1985, and is reproduced here with the permission of Springer Verlag, Heidelberg.