基于专利的区块链技术发展现状与竞争态势分析

区块链作为国家核心技术自主创新重要突破口,分析区块链技术发展现状与竞争格局对国家科技创新发展具有重要意义。本文基于德温特数据库,首先对技术发展阶段、主要竞争国家/地区及主要专利权人进行识别,然后从技术关注热点、核心技术领域进行国际竞争态势分析,最后采用专利组合评价指标与国家层面确定主要竞争国家/地区综合竞争地位。研究发现:区块链技术处于快速发展阶段;我国在金融、管理等数据处理系统与数字信息传输热点技术领域具有竞争优势,但美国在主要核心技术领域实力较强,专利技术具有核心竞争力;我国与美国均处于技术领导者地位,我国专利活动最强,美国第二,但美国专利质量高于我国,我国在专利质量上存在短板。最后针对我国存在的问题提出对策建议。     

美国科学技术政策的历史沿革

美国目前是全世界的经济、军事超级大国，其经济和军事的发展，最根本、最重要的原因是科学和技术，是美国历届政府对科学和技术的重视和善用，是有一套适时调整的正确并有效的科技政策。美国的国家技术政策有着比较久远的历史根源。从美国独立到目前两百多年，美国国家科技政策经历了几次历史性的变革。分析美国国家科技政策的沿革、现行科技政策，对我国的科技决策的科学化和先进化具有十分重要的借鉴意义。     

基于专利分析的煤炭清洁高效转化技术发展态势分析

实现碳达峰碳中和目标要求加快推进能源绿色低碳转型与创新发展。本文围绕煤炭清洁高效转化技术及相关能源政策，从专利分布、技术来源地、领先专利申请人等方面分析了相关专利的整体发展趋势。专利布局情况分析结果表明，我国是煤炭清洁高效转化技术领域专利的主要研发力量和目标市场国家；中国煤炭清洁高效转化技术各领域的专利技术构成揭示了我国当前的重点研究领域；结合煤炭转化利用领域近年获得国家科技进步奖的项目中具有自主知识产权的关键核心技术来深入分析专利布局情况。在此基础上，提出煤炭转化关键专利技术应向生产力转化，抓住“一带一路”机遇以提升我国现代煤化工产业国际竞争力。     

中美云计算领域专利技术主题发展态势预测研究

云计算是人工智能时代竞争致胜的关键支撑产业，是中美两国必争之地。科学预测中美两国云计算相关技术主题发展态势，对于我国科学规划云计算发展策略、提高竞争实力具有重要意义。本文以中美云计算领域专利为样本数据，首先运用WI-LDA细粒度挖掘各技术主题，其次利用Prophet对各主题发展态势进行建模预测，最后创建主题趋势度和主题热度指标，绘制技术主题空间分布图，解读两国未来发展态势。分析发现：美国在云计算领域整体起步比较早，在故障检测与修复、云安全、混合存储控制装置、内存管理具有较大优势，中国虽起步较晚，但发展迅速，在数字计算中心、信号传输系统、软件模拟、云资源加密、图像数据识别后来居上，发展前景广阔。美国已在云计算大多技术主题占得先机，我国仍需持续建设良好的云计算发展环境，坚持自主可控的发展方向，培养核心竞争力。     

英国国家科技创新政策的战略规划

在世界新科技革命迅猛发展,经济全球化趋势日益增强的背景下,一个国家的科技政策愈来愈明显地表达出国家竞争战略的意志,可以说科技实力的竞争已演变成为国际竞争的焦点。时代主题的变换与新科技的冲击同样为英国的发展提供了机遇与挑战。英国科技创新战略应运而生,并在实践中取得显著效果,为英国构建国家创新体系奠定了坚实的基础。本文试图通过解读英国科技创新政策的战略规划,为我国制定科技政策提供借鉴与参考。     

两种办学体制的竞争定位模型分析

我国的民办教育经过20余年的发展，已经成长为整个教育事业的重要组成部分。目前，民办教育虽然在规模、结构等方面与公办教育相比还处于劣势，但民办教育在国家政策的大力支持下，在办学体制、专业设置和就业方向等方面已发挥出一定的竞争优势。本文拟采用系统动力模型来分析两种办学体制之间的竞争格局及其发展趋势，从而找到一种民办教育与公办教育协调发展的定位规律。     

洞见科技发展与竞争态势服务科技创新高质量发展

新一轮科技革命和产业变革深入发展,新冠肺炎世纪疫情叠加,加速科技创新步伐并加剧了竞争.全球科技呈现出突破性快速发展态势,国际科技创新环境与竞争格局加速调整,我国科技整体实力也迈向系统性提升新阶段.同时,我国正迈入高质量发展新阶段,科技自立自强成为国家发展的战略支撑,现代化建设对科技创新提出五大战略需求,即科技强国目标需...     

集成电路装备产业的全球竞争格局与我国竞争态势分析

在文献综述的基础上,通过产业竞争态势研究,分析全球及我国集成电路装备产业的竞争态势,并在此基础上,分析和提出我国集成电路装备产业的发展建议。研究表明,美国、日本、韩国和荷兰仍是集成电路装备产业发展的强国,且各国政府是推动产业发展的主导力量,但全球市场却趋于向东亚转移。我国集成电路装备产业已形成较为完善的产业链结构和产业配套体系,主要集中于上海与北京等地,已初步具备参与全球竞争的基础,但国家科技计划在部分领域仍有缺失。研究提出,我国应在加快形成龙头引领、强化科技布局等方面进一步发挥基础优势,紧跟国际发展步伐,提升产业竞争力。     

芬兰经济技术的跨越式发展及其启迪

本文通过对芬兰的实地考察和长期跟踪研究。比较深入地分析了芬兰经济技术实现跨越式发展的过程，研究总结了芬兰实行的经济政策和技术政策，指出了芬兰经济技术实现跨越式发展的模式，以及对后进国家发展经济技术的一些的启迪。     

国际山区发展政策与制度热点分析

在系统梳理国际上主要组织和机构、区域政治联盟和主要山区国家的有关发展政策与制度的基础上，分析了当前国际山区政策与制度的重点关注问题。同时，针对我国山区发展的现状，总结了未来我国山区发展的重点问题。     

国际科技合作新趋势对中国科技发展的挑战及其对策

随着国际科技合作新趋势的不断发展，其对我国政府的作用、国家科技体制和科研环境、国家科学研究、产业研发、国家安全、知识产权建设等提出了严峻的挑战。面对挑战，我们应该积极调整政府在国际科技合作中的作用；深化科研体制改革，全面推进科技体制创新；形成有层次的国际合作交流体系；积极调整企业国际科技合作；加强国家的安全建设和高度重视知识产权建设。     

基于MAXScript的三维海面动画生成研究

随着计算机技术的发展,三维动画影片已经逐步替代传统二维动画走上历史舞台。3DS MAX作为目前流行的三维动画制作软件被广泛使用在实际制作海面动画场景的过程中,人工手动调节该类动画场景工作量非常大,为了解决该问题,本文应用3DS MAX软件内置脚本语言(MAXScript)编写程序,结合3DS MAX内部波纹扭曲体函数来生成具有随机性海浪的海面并通过设置参数来制作海面动画。本文的开发结果直接应用在实际的动漫项目制作中,节省了场景制作的时间,而且系统设定的界面便于用户调用软件内部功能,为制作提高了效率。     

Non-Gaussian seasonal adjustment: X-12-ARIMA versus robust structural models

This study compares X-12-ARIMA and MING, two new seasonal adjustment methods designed to handle outliers and structural changes in a time series. X-12-ARIMA is a successor to the X-11-ARIMA seasonal adjustment method, and is being developed at the US Bureau of the Census. MING is a ‘Mixture based Non-Gaussian’ method for seasonal adjustment using time series structural models and is implemented as a function in the S-Plus language. The procedures are compared using 29 macroeconomic time series from the US Bureau of the Census. These series have both outliers and structural changes, providing a good testbed for comparing non-Gaussian methods. For the 29 series, the X-12-ARIMA decomposition consistently leads to smoother seasonal factors which are as or more ‘flexible’ than the MING seasonal component. On the other hand, MING is more stable, particularly in the way it handles outliers and level shifts. This study relies heavily on graphical tools for comparing seasonal adjustment methods.     

Model‐based forecast adjustment: With an illustration to inflation

This paper introduces the idea of adjusting forecasts from a linear time series model where the adjustment relies on the assumption that this linear model is an approximation of a nonlinear time series model. This way of creating forecasts could be convenient when inference for a nonlinear model is impossible, complicated or unreliable in small samples. The size of the forecast adjustment can be based on the estimation results for the linear model and on other data properties such as the first few moments or autocorrelations. An illustration is given for a first‐order diagonal bilinear time series model, which in certain properties can be approximated by a linear ARMA(1, 1) model. For this case, the forecast adjustment is easy to derive, which is convenient as the particular bilinear model is indeed cumbersome to analyze in practice. An application to a range of inflation series for low‐income countries shows that such adjustment can lead to some improved forecasts, although the gain is small for this particular bilinear time series model.     

Acid-base changes across the rat jejunum, in vitro (author's transl)]

Everted sacs of rat jejunum are able to adjust to near 6.5 any solution whose pH is situated between 5.5 and 9.5. Beyond these limits the adjustment becomes incomplete. Changes in PCO2 and total CO2 associated with changes in mucosal pH-values suggest that bicarbonate or CO2-movements toward the jejunal lumen involved in this adjustment process are predominant.     

The real exchange rate,fiscal policy and the role of wealth an analysis of equilibrium in a monetary union

This paper is concerned with the adjustment processes within a potential European monetary union and looks in particular at permanent asymmetric shocks that require an adjustment in a country's (or region's) real exchange rate. We first consider some of the implications of EMU and the question of asymmetries within the European economy. The presence of asymmetries and, in particular, different institutional structures in labour markets is a potential source of tension within a union and it could make a union difficult to sustain. However, automatic adjustment processes will be at work within a monetary union as a result of changes in relative price levels, which change real exchange rates, and also as a result of changes in wealth stocks. We use our econometric world model, NIGEM, to investigate the effects of asymmetric fiscal expansions and real exchange rate misalignments within a monetary union. In order to quantify the effects of such permanent asymmetric shocks we have introduced wealth into our model. Our simulations suggest that the principal impact of the fiscal expansion on both output and the price level will occur within the country in which the expansion occurs. Short-term gains are crowded out in the medium term, and while monetary union reduces crowding out in the short term, it increases the rate at which crowding out occurs thereafter. We also analyse the effects of real exchange rate misalignments and find that the processes of adjustment may be very protracted. This could cause strain on the union as adjustment costs are shared unequally.     

Forecasting with an econometric model: The issue of judgemental adjustment

The paper outlines the current state of forecasting with an econometric model. After briefly distinguishing econometric techniques from other statistical approaches and arguing the advantages of this approach the paper concentrates on the issue of judgemental adjustments to models for forecasting purposes. Two types of adjustment are distinguished and the conditions under which each is justified are stated. Guidance in the use of adjustment is offered through a review of considerations in an actual forecasting situation.     

Structural adjustment in the UK and Europe under the ERM

The paper has three main objectives; first, to explore in more detail the properties of the OEF world model; second, to examine within the context of that model the process of structural adjustment in Europe since the establishment of the ERM and, third, to ask whether there are differences between the UK and the rest of Europe that might make the adjustment process to ERM membership difficult for the former. Differences in the housing market are highlighted.     

Forecast performance of nonlinear error‐correction models with multiple regimes

In this paper we investigate the forecast performance of nonlinear error‐correction models with regime switching. In particular, we focus on threshold and Markov switching error‐correction models, where adjustment towards long‐run equilibrium is nonlinear and discontinuous. Our simulation study reveals that the gains from using a correctly specified nonlinear model can be considerable, especially if disequilibrium adjustment is strong and/or the magnitude of parameter changes is relatively large. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The anchor and adjustment heuristic in time-series forecasting

This paper explores the relevance of the anchor and adjustment heuristic in judgmental time-series extrapolation. Using a database of real time series it examines the proposition that people anchor on the last history value of the series and make insufficient adjustments from it in making their forecast. In contrast to studies in behavioral decision making, analysis shows that the anchor and adjustment heuristic does not describe the behavior of time-series forecasters. Adjustments from the anchor are often excessive, not insufficient. A number of possible explanations for this exceptional finding are explored.