海冰微辐射特征的研究

本文给出了海冰介电常数的理论模型和海冰分层辐射理论模型，并用计算机编程计算了两种理论模型。从实验角度，本文给出了测量数据的曲线拟合方法，并着手建立了海冰测厚的计算机自动监测系统。     

鄂东南水稻产量模型与制约因素分析

本文根据国内外近期研究进展结合鄂东南的具体资料，给出了鄂东南水稻产量的理论模型，从理论模型与实际产量的差异入手，探讨了该区域生态环境对水稻产量形成的影响．     

低温下晶体管击穿电压的温度特性与分析

本文给出了从２００Ｋ到１０Ｋ低温下，硅双极晶体管击穿电压随温度而变化的实验结果，建立了理论模型，并对实验结果作出合理解释     

移动Agent技术及实现方法

本文给出了移动Agent的实体模型、理论模型和协作模型并详细阐述了实现移动Agent技术所要解决的问题及方法，为移动Agent的应用提供了新的思路。     

控温法海冰冻融固态脱盐技术研究

针对我国环渤海地区淡水资源严重缺乏，而渤海海冰资源丰富的状况，本文利用温室效应原理，设计了一套海冰控温冻融固态脱盐装置，并进行了现场脱盐试验和室内海冰盐分运动示踪观测．研究结果表明：海冰冰体液一固两相共生的混合体结构特征构成本技术的基础，海冰中卤水在重力和冰晶微融水的淋洗作用下总体上沿盐水通道向下快速迁移而排出；气温为2-6℃，冰温为-1．5—2℃时，经过5-7d控温脱盐，海冰盐度可降到1‰以下；出水率可以达到60％以上；单体设施年冰期产水可达381．6m^3；出水水质完全可以达到农业灌溉水标准；海冰淡化水吨水试验成本约为4．47元／m^3．     

发射光谱仪深度剖面分析的理论机制

本文主要论述了发射光谱仪深度剖面的理论依据和其定量深度剖面分析的理论机制 ,并根据有关理论系统地给出了实现发射光谱仪深度剖面分析的理论模型 ,并指明了理论模型尚待弥补的不足及发展前景。     

H-PDLC体光栅透射谱特性及其应用的模拟研究

通过对理论模型进行数值计算,给出H-PDLC体光栅的透射谱形状特性随参数的变化情况.其次,根据透射谱特性,提出一种新颖的EDFA动态增益均衡器的设计思想,并给出了计算机模拟动态增益均衡器的方法.模拟结果显示动态增益均衡器能够保持较好的工作状态.     

基于海洋石油平台的海冰监测系统

【目的】有效监测渤海辽东湾海冰状况,指导破冰船破冰,保障冬季冰期海洋石油平台的安全生产。【方法】在辽东湾石油平台上构建海冰测量系统,利用视频测冰技术、视频冰速测量技术及气象观测多种手段,在2011—2015年度连续4年冬季冰期观测平台周边海冰形貌、范围、运动轨迹,并对监测数据进行分析,给出24h海冰预报。【结果】基于海洋石油平台的海冰监测系统对海冰冰量、冰厚、冰速、冰类型监测数据准确,通过数据分析可以对海冰实施年、月、周、24h预报,短期预报与实际情况基本相符合,其中24h预报准确率在95%以上。【结论】基于海洋石油平台的海冰监测系统是一套运行可靠的监测系统,能准确地观测海冰的运行趋势,为冬季渤海辽东湾的抗冰活动提供指导。     

复杂环境条件下土壤非饱和区热湿迁移的研究

本文通过对土壤非饱和区热迟迁移机理的分析，根据质量守恒和能量守恒定律，导出了非饱和区含湿量方程和能量方程，给出了一维非稳态热湿迁移的定解条件，从而建立了复杂环境条件下土壤非饱和区热湿迁移的理论模型．     

渤海海冰作用特征参数确定方法

将海冰的生成，运移及其与结构相互作用的过程中存在的不确定性作为随机事件或随机过程研究，提出旨在建立设计条件的海冰作用多参数概率分析法，对海冰作用静，动力特征参数的规定与选择问题了探讨，对今后的研究方向提出了建议。     

High interannual variability of sea ice thickness in the Arctic region

Possible future changes in Arctic sea ice cover and thickness, and consequent changes in the ice-albedo feedback, represent one of the largest uncertainties in the prediction of future temperature rise. Knowledge of the natural variability of sea ice thickness is therefore critical for its representation in global climate models. Numerical simulations suggest that Arctic ice thickness varies primarily on decadal timescales owing to changes in wind and ocean stresses on the ice, but observations have been unable to provide a synoptic view of sea ice thickness, which is required to validate the model results. Here we use an eight-year time-series of Arctic ice thickness, derived from satellite altimeter measurements of ice freeboard, to determine the mean thickness field and its variability from 65 degrees N to 81.5 degrees N. Our data reveal a high-frequency interannual variability in mean Arctic ice thickness that is dominated by changes in the amount of summer melt, rather than by changes in circulation. Our results suggest that a continued increase in melt season length would lead to further thinning of Arctic sea ice.     

基于SPH方法的渤海海冰动力学数值模拟

简要介绍了光滑质点流体动力学 (smoothed particle hydrodynamics,简称SPH) 方法的基本原理,并将此方法应用到渤海海冰动力学数值模拟中. 在对海冰动力学方程和粘弹塑性本构方程进行SPH处理的基础上,对渤海海冰的动力演化过程进行了48 h的数值模拟,得到了海冰厚度、密集度、速度和主应力的演化过程及分布规律,同时对模拟的海冰厚度等值线分布与卫星遥感图像进行了对比分析. 数值模拟结果表明,SPH能够精确地模拟海冰分布规律以及冰缘线的位置,具有很高的计算精度和稳定性,是一种有效的海冰动力学数值模拟方法.     

Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years

Arctic sea ice extent is now more than two million square kilometres less than it was in the late twentieth century, with important consequences for the climate, the ocean and traditional lifestyles in the Arctic. Although observations show a more or less continuous decline for the past four or five decades, there are few long-term records with which to assess natural sea ice variability. Until now, the question of whether or not current trends are potentially anomalous has therefore remained unanswerable. Here we use a network of high-resolution terrestrial proxies from the circum-Arctic region to reconstruct past extents of summer sea ice, and show that-although extensive uncertainties remain, especially before the sixteenth century-both the duration and magnitude of the current decline in sea ice seem to be unprecedented for the past 1,450 years. Enhanced advection of warm Atlantic water to the Arctic seems to be the main factor driving the decline of sea ice extent on multidecadal timescales, and may result from nonlinear feedbacks between sea ice and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. These results reinforce the assertion that sea ice is an active component of Arctic climate variability and that the recent decrease in summer Arctic sea ice is consistent with anthropogenically forced warming.     

Relationship between Hadley circulation and sea ice extent in the Bering Sea

The linkage between Hadley circulation （HC） and sea ice extent in the Bering Sea during March-April is investigated through an analysis of observed data in this research. It is found that HC is negatively correlated to the sea ice extent in the Bering Sea, namely, strong （weak） HC is corresponding to less （more） sea ice in the Bering Sea. The present study also addresses the large-scale atmospheric general circulation changes underlying the relationship between HC and sea ice in the Bering Sea. It follows that a positive phase of HC corresponds to westward located Aleutian low, anomalous southerlies over the eastern North Pacific and higher temperature in the Bering Sea, providing unfavorable atmospheric and thermal conditions for the sea ice forming, and thus sea ice extent in the Bering Sea is decreased, and vice versa. In addition, it is further identified that East Asian-North Pacific-North America teleconnection may play an important role in linking HC and changes of atmospheric circulations as well as sea ice in the Bering Sea.     

冬季北极海冰面积异常与中国气温变化之间的年际关系

利用1957-2001年冬季的北极海冰资料、中国160站气温资料以及NCEP再分析的大气环流资料分析了冬季北极海冰面积异常与中国气温变化之间的年际关系.过去44年来,北极海冰面积总体上具有减小趋势(鄂霍次克海是例外,那里海冰面积有增加趋势),相应地北极涛动趋于增强,我国大部分地区趋于增暖.叠加这种趋势变化之上的是年际变化.在年际时间尺度上,冬季海冰变化的主要空间型表现为格陵兰海和白令海的海冰异常总是和鄂霍次克海、巴伦支海东部、喀拉海(新地岛附近)以及哈得孙湾的海冰异常符号相反,并且与500 hPa高度场上的EU和WP型遥相关对应.当冬季格陵兰海和白令海的海冰异常偏少,而鄂霍次克海、巴伦支海东部、喀拉海(新地岛附近)以及哈得孙湾的海冰异常偏多时,西伯利亚高压和阿留申低压都偏弱,冬季风减弱,东亚西风增强,我国冬季大部分地区温度升高;反之亦然.     

海冰厚度测量方法及仪器的应用研究

为更好地在辽东湾开展雷达海冰监测、预报技术服务,专门研制出雷达冰厚测量记录仪来测量海冰厚度.通过现场实时的海冰厚度测量试验,对雷达冰厚测量记录仪的可靠性和应用性做出了分析和校正.实验结果表明,雷达冰厚测量记录仪样机整体性能良好,现场标定雷达冰厚测量准确率大于87.5%,样机填补了国内空白.     

浅水区斜坡人工岛海冰危害及减灾措施

为减轻海冰对斜坡人工岛的灾害性影响,经过现场调查和分析,揭示了由于大面积冰盘的能量使其一部分与斜坡人工岛发生作用而产生爬坡、破坏和堆积现象,确定了斜坡人工岛前海冰堆积体的形状.现场调查和物理模型试验结果表明,采用曲面破冰结构诱导海冰在斜坡人工岛前形成堆积体,可以增加海冰接触人工岛的能量消耗,降低海冰对斜坡人工岛的危害.     

Low sea level rise projections from mountain glaciers and icecaps under global warming

The mean sea level has been projected to rise in the 21st century as a result of global warming. Such projections of sea level change depend on estimated future greenhouse emissions and on differing models, but model-average results from a mid-range scenario (A1B) suggests a 0.387-m rise by 2100 (refs 1, 2). The largest contributions to sea level rise are estimated to come from thermal expansion (0.288 m) and the melting of mountain glaciers and icecaps (0.106 m), with smaller inputs from Greenland (0.024 m) and Antarctica (- 0.074 m). Here we apply a melt model and a geometric volume model to our lower estimate of ice volume and assess the contribution of glaciers to sea level rise, excluding those in Greenland and Antarctica. We provide the first separate assessment of melt contributions from mountain glaciers and icecaps, as well as an improved treatment of volume shrinkage. We find that icecaps melt more slowly than mountain glaciers, whose area declines rapidly in the 21st century, making glaciers a limiting source for ice melt. Using two climate models, we project sea level rise due to melting of mountain glaciers and icecaps to be 0.046 and 0.051 m by 2100, about half that of previous projections.