轨道不平顺条件下板式轨道动力分析

国内外对于有碴轨道的动力学研究已比较成熟,己经步入轮轨相互作用的系统动力学研究阶段。无碴轨道结构作为近几年发展起来的新型轨道结构,对于它的设计和研究仍限于静力学分析和一些简化的动力学分析,对于无碴轨道和高速车辆的系统动力学研究还比较少,本文运用通用有限元计算软件ANSYS,建立土质路基板式轨道系统非线性力学模型并施加列车移动载荷,分析在不同波深轨道竖向谐波不平顺工况下,板式轨道各部分,轨道板、CA砂浆、混凝土基座及基床的竖向沉降、竖向振动加速度及横向、纵向与竖向的三向应力状况及时程曲线。     

Genetic changes of pupa weight inTribolium castaneum under domestication

Summary The evolution of the genetic and phenotypic parameters of pupa weight in 6 wild populations ofTribolium castaneum under domestication was studied. A gradual increase of the phenotypic and additive genetic variances of the populations was detected accompanied by small or non-significant changes of the mean. These results are interpreted as short-term consequences of the relaxation of centripetal (stabilizing) selection forces under laboratory conditions.We wish to thank Prof. F.J. Ayala for useful discussions in the preparation of this paper.     

采煤机扭矩轴离合器参数化设计

基于有限元分析软件ANSYS和大型数学计算软件MATLAB对某煤机公司设计的采煤机扭矩轴进行了可靠性分析,获取了同等奈件下U型、V型和二次曲线型卸荷槽对扭矩轴的应力变化规律;对二次曲线型卸荷槽进行了参数化设计,根据项目参数,优化了扭矩轴结构.同时结合由机械系统运动学和动力学自动分析软件ADAMS仿真生成的扭矩轴所受峰值时刻的动载荷验证了改进后的扭矩轴的可靠性和合理性.     

13C NMR-study of flexibilide,an anti-inflammatory agent from a soft cora

Summary The use of¹³C spin-lattice relaxation measurements as a probe of structure in solution is illustrated for flexibilide. Analysis of quaternary carbon relaxation behaviour indicates that the structure in solution differs from the crystal structure. The effects of lanthanide shift and relaxation reagents on¹³C spectral parameters are also reported.Acknowledgment. We thank R.J. Wells, RRIMP, for helpful discussions.     

Diagnosis of the presence of meconium in amniotic fluid by dispersion curves of the longitudinal relaxations of protons]

Dispersion curves of the longitudinal relaxation T1 of protons in healthy amniotic fluid in a meconium solution are distinct at low Larmor frequencies (V0 less than 100 kHz). We are thus able to distinguish these fluids by T1 measurements in this range.     

Yield Curve Forecasting with the Burg Model

We introduce a versatile and robust model that may help policymakers, bond portfolio managers and financial institutions to gain insight into the future shape of the yield curve. The Burg model forecasts a 20‐day yield curve, which fits a pth‐order autoregressive (AR) model to the input signal by minimizing (least squares) the forward and backward prediction errors while constraining the autoregressive parameters to satisfy the Levinson–Durbin recursion. Then, it uses an infinite impulse response prediction error filter. Results are striking when the Burg model is compared to the Diebold and Li model: the model not only significantly improves accuracy, but also its forecast yield curves stick to the shape of observed yield curves, whether normal, humped, flat or inverted. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecasting the Term Structure when Short‐Term Rates are Near Zero

This paper compares the experience of forecasting the UK government bond yield curve before and after the dramatic lowering of short‐term interest rates from October 2008. Out‐of‐sample forecasts for 1, 6 and 12 months are generated from each of a dynamic Nelson–Siegel model, autoregressive models for both yields and the principal components extracted from those yields, a slope regression and a random walk model. At short forecasting horizons, there is little difference in the performance of the models both prior to and after 2008. However, for medium‐ to longer‐term horizons, the slope regression provided the best forecasts prior to 2008, while the recent experience of near‐zero short interest rates coincides with a period of forecasting superiority for the autoregressive and dynamic Nelson–Siegel models. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The physical state of alkali ions in a Halobacterium: Some NMR results

Summary Nuclear magnetic relaxation measurements of the ions Na⁺, Rb⁺ and Cs⁺ in a Halobacterium sp. are described. The results support a theoretical model which involves the binding of intracellular alkali ions.We wish to thank the European Molecular Biology Organization (EMBO) and the Nederlandse Stichting voor Zuiver Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (ZWO) for the financial support that made our stay in Groningen possible.     

Photoperiod-induced changes in temperature-metabolism curve,shivering threshold and body temperature in the pigeon

Summary A short photphase combined with cold-acclimation changed the shivering threshold of the pigeon from 21 to 14 °C. The change of critical temperature was also found in the temperature-metabolism curve. A long photophase both alone and combined with warm-acclimation induced a reduction of body temperature to a lower level (about 2°C) at all ambient temperatures, ranging from 5 40°C.     

Do professional forecasters believe in the Phillips curve? evidence from the G7 countries

This paper uses monthly survey data for the G7 countries for the time period 1989–2007 to explore the link between expectations on nominal wages, prices and unemployment rates as suggested by the wage and price Phillips curves. Four major findings stand out. First, we find that survey participants trust in both types of Phillips curve relationships. Second, we find evidence in favor of nonlinearities in the price Phillips curve. Third, we take into account a kink in the price Phillips curve to indicate that the slope of the Phillips curve differs during the business cycle. We find strong evidence of this feature in the data which confirms recent theoretical discussions. Fourth, we employ our data to the expectations‐augmented Phillips curve model. The results suggest that professional forecasters adopt this model when forecasting macroeconomic variables. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Forecast covariances in the linear multiregression dynamic model

The linear multiregression dynamic model (LMDM) is a Bayesian dynamic model which preserves any conditional independence and causal structure across a multivariate time series. The conditional independence structure is used to model the multivariate series by separate (conditional) univariate dynamic linear models, where each series has contemporaneous variables as regressors in its model. Calculating the forecast covariance matrix (which is required for calculating forecast variances in the LMDM) is not always straightforward in its current formulation. In this paper we introduce a simple algebraic form for calculating LMDM forecast covariances. Calculation of the covariance between model regression components can also be useful and we shall present a simple algebraic method for calculating these component covariances. In the LMDM formulation, certain pairs of series are constrained to have zero forecast covariance. We shall also introduce a possible method to relax this restriction. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

地震荷载下露天矿边坡动力稳定性模拟分析

以某风积土边坡为研究对象,通过对模型进行简化,研究了静荷载和动荷载荷载作用引起风积土的边坡静力安全系数、边坡动力安全系数、屈服地震系数以及破坏类型和动力稳定性判别,探讨了该边坡在地震荷载作用下产生的动力稳定性问题.研究结果表明,地震荷载作用下此类边坡会因风积土液化而产生流滑破坏.应用 ADINA软件对此边坡在地震荷载作用情况下进行了模拟,获得了动荷载作用前后的位移与应力变化关系和此边坡的动力动力安全系数.据此判别出该边坡在 EICentro波动荷载作用下会因风积土液化而产生流滑破坏.该研究结果对风积土边坡的动力稳定研究具有重要的参考价值     

Endothelium-dependent relaxation induced by sodium fluoride in the rabbit ear artery

Summary Sodium fluoride (NaF) produced concentration-dependent relaxation of isolated rabbit ear artery precontracted with norepinephrine. In contrast, an arterial preparation with the endothelium rubbed off did not relax, but contracted in response to NaF. NaF-induced relaxation was not influenced by indomethacin but was inhibited by methylene blue or N^G-monomethyl-L-arginine. The results indicate that NaF relaxes the artery by releasing a so-called EDRF.     

Zur Diskussion über die Homogenität des Erdinnern

Summary According to considerations put forwards byW. Kuhn andA. Rittmann some years ago, it follows that the chemical composition of the interior of the earth must be rather homogeneous; the well-known discontinuity which occurs at 2900 km with respect to the propagation of longitudinal and transverse waves should not be due to a discontinuity of the material composition (not to an iron core). It is due to a continous decrease of the viscosity and thereby of the relaxation time; transverse waves of a period of e.g. 30 seconds will no more be propagated in a material whose relaxation time for tangential stress is below 30 seconds, while the longitudinal waves will suffer a decrease of the velocity at the same time.A criticism put forward byA. Eucken consists in the argument that a material in which the time of relaxation for tangential stress becomes equal to the period of the vibration will exhibit a considerable absorption coefficient for longitudinal waves too. It is now shown that the distance on which the period of vibration and the relaxation time are approximately equal is small compared with the wave length of the seismic waves in question, from which it follows that the resulting absorption of the longitudinal waves too will only be small.A further consideration shows that a mixture of 99 atomic % hydrogen and 1 atomic % of iron is most probably supercritical at a temperature of 5000° abs.A survey of the solubilities in question shows further that the hydrogen present in a mixture of 90% hydrogen and 10% iron should on the strength of the absorption coefficient be completely absorbed by the iron at 5000° abs. and at a total pressure of 2.10⁶ atmospheres.The main argument why the assumption of an iron core inside the earth must be dismissed remains the fact that the present state must be the result of an asymptotic processus which at least in its final phase has occurred under conditions similar to the present conditions of temperature, pressure and viscosity; these latter conditions are far from permitting the processus of sedimentation etc. which would be required.     

On assessing the relative performance of default predictions

We compare the accuracy of default predictions as, for instance, produced by professional rating agencies. We extend previous results on partial orderings to nonidentical sets of obligors and show that the calibration requirement virtually rules out the possibility of some partial orderings and that the partial ordering based on the ROC curve is most easily achieved in practice. As an example, we show for more than 5,000 firms rated by Moody's and S&P that these ratings cannot be ranked according to their grade distributions given default or nondefault, but that Moody's dominate S&P with respect to the ROC criterion and the Gini curve.     

高温变形过程中的动态再结晶类型识别

通过分析高温变形过程中伴随再结晶晶粒长大的内部位错密度变化,判别不同变形条件下动态再结晶过程的进行形式,研究动态再结晶形式对变形参数的依赖规律,发现：低温大应变速率下,高温变形过程中的再结晶形式以连续性动态再结晶为主;高温低应变速率下,以周期性动态再结晶为主.根据动态再结晶软化与加工硬化平衡,得到反映稳态流动时钛合金流动应力对变形参数的响应,建立具有实际物理意义描述钛合金稳态流动本构关系的Arrhenius型方程.通过热模拟压缩实验得到800~900℃,0.0005~10 s-1条件下的TC18钛合金高温变形流动应力应变曲线,验证动态再结晶形式的判据模型,并通过DMM耗散效率分布图分析模型的适用性.通过显微组织分析,研究不同变形参数下的高温变形过程中,不同动态再结晶形式对应的再结晶晶粒粗化/细化的特点.通过各变形条件下真应变？=0.8时的稳态应力验证得到的本构模型,并分析应变速率敏感系数的变化规律.     

Term Structure Forecasting: No‐Arbitrage Restrictions versus Large Information Set

This paper addresses the issue of forecasting term structure. We provide a unified state‐space modeling framework that encompasses different existing discrete‐time yield curve models. Within such a framework we analyze the impact of two modeling choices, namely the imposition of no‐arbitrage restrictions and the size of the information set used to extract factors, on forecasting performance. Using US yield curve data, we find that both no‐arbitrage and large information sets help in forecasting but no model uniformly dominates the other. No‐arbitrage models are more useful at shorter horizons for shorter maturities. Large information sets are more useful at longer horizons and longer maturities. We also find evidence for a significant feedback from yield curve models to macroeconomic variables that could be exploited for macroeconomic forecasting. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Factor forecasts for the UK

Data are now readily available for a very large number of macroeconomic variables that are potentially useful when forecasting. We argue that recent developments in the theory of dynamic factor models enable such large data sets to be summarized by relatively few estimated factors, which can then be used to improve forecast accuracy. In this paper we construct a large macroeconomic data set for the UK, with about 80 variables, model it using a dynamic factor model, and compare the resulting forecasts with those from a set of standard time‐series models. We find that just six factors are sufficient to explain 50% of the variability of all the variables in the data set. These factors, which can be shown to be related to key variables in the economy, and their use leads to considerable improvements upon standard time‐series benchmarks in terms of forecasting performance. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An ensemble of LSTM neural networks for high‐frequency stock market classification

We propose an ensemble of long–short‐term memory (LSTM) neural networks for intraday stock predictions, using a large variety of technical analysis indicators as network inputs. The proposed ensemble operates in an online way, weighting the individual models proportionally to their recent performance, which allows us to deal with possible nonstationarities in an innovative way. The performance of the models is measured by area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic. We evaluate the predictive power of our model on several US large‐cap stocks and benchmark it against lasso and ridge logistic classifiers. The proposed model is found to perform better than the benchmark models or equally weighted ensembles.     

Effect of potassium on isolated bovine facial and human saphenous veins

Summary A moderate elevation of external (K ₀ ⁺ ) (5–10 mM) induces relaxation in bovine facial and human saphenous veins. A further increase of (K ₀ ⁺ ) leads to biphasic reactions (relaxation followed by contraction). Concentrations of (K ₀ ⁺ ) higher than about 15 mM cause contractions only. The potassium-induced relaxation may be explained by the stimulation of an electrogenic sodium pump.