Modelled atmospheric temperatures and global sea levels over the past million years

Marine records of sediment oxygen isotope compositions show that the Earth's climate has gone through a succession of glacial and interglacial periods during the past million years. But the interpretation of the oxygen isotope records is complicated because both isotope storage in ice sheets and deep-water temperature affect the recorded isotopic composition. Separating these two effects would require long records of either sea level or deep-ocean temperature, which are currently not available. Here we use a coupled model of the Northern Hemisphere ice sheets and ocean temperatures, forced to match an oxygen isotope record for the past million years compiled from 57 globally distributed sediment cores, to quantify both contributions simultaneously. We find that the ice-sheet contribution to the variability in oxygen isotope composition varied from ten per cent in the beginning of glacial periods to sixty per cent at glacial maxima, suggesting that strong ocean cooling preceded slow ice-sheet build-up. The model yields mutually consistent time series of continental mean surface temperatures between 40 and 80 degrees N, ice volume and global sea level. We find that during extreme glacial stages, air temperatures were 17 +/- 1.8 degrees C lower than present, with a 120 +/- 10 m sea level equivalent of continental ice present.     

Stable sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific warm pool over the past 1.75 million years

About 850,000 years ago, the period of the glacial cycles changed from 41,000 to 100,000 years. This mid-Pleistocene climate transition has been attributed to global cooling, possibly caused by a decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. However, evidence for such cooling is currently restricted to the cool upwelling regions in the eastern equatorial oceans, although the tropical warm pools on the western side of the ocean basins are particularly sensitive to changes in radiative forcing. Here we present high-resolution records of sea surface temperatures spanning the past 1.75 million years, obtained from oxygen isotopes and Mg/Ca ratios in planktonic foraminifera from the western Pacific warm pool. In contrast with the eastern equatorial regions, sea surface temperatures in the western Pacific warm pool are relatively stable throughout the Pleistocene epoch, implying little long-term change in the tropical net radiation budget. Our results challenge the hypothesis of a gradual decrease in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations as a dominant trigger of the longer glacial cycles since 850,000 years ago. Instead, we infer that the temperature contrast across the equatorial Pacific Ocean increased, which might have had a significant influence on the mid-Pleistocene climate transition.     

Geological constraints on tidal dissipation and dynamical ellipticity of the Earth over the past three million years

The evolution of the Solar System has been shown to be chaotic, which limits our ability to retrace the orbital and precessional motion of the Earth over more than 35-50 Myr (ref. 2). Moreover, the precession, obliquity and insolation parameters can also be influenced by secular variations in the tidal dissipation and dynamical ellipticity of the Earth induced by glacial cyclicity and mantle convection. Here we determine the average values of these dissipative effects over the past three million years. We have computed the optimal fit between an exceptional palaeoclimate record from the eastern Mediterranean Sea and a model of the astronomical and insolation history by testing a number of values for the tidal dissipation and dynamical ellipticity parameters. We find that the combined effects of dynamical ellipticity and tidal dissipation were, on average, significantly lower over the past three million years, compared to their present-day values (determined from artificial satellite data and lunar ranging). This secular variation associated with the Plio-Pleistocene ice load history has caused an average acceleration in the Earth's rotation over the past 3 Myr, which needs to be considered in the construction of astronomical timescales and in research into the stationarity of phase relations in the ocean-climate system through time.     

Woody cover and hominin environments in the past 6 million years

The role of African savannahs in the evolution of early hominins has been debated for nearly a century. Resolution of this issue has been hindered by difficulty in quantifying the fraction of woody cover in the fossil record. Here we show that the fraction of woody cover in tropical ecosystems can be quantified using stable carbon isotopes in soils. Furthermore, we use fossil soils from hominin sites in the Awash and Omo-Turkana basins in eastern Africa to reconstruct the fraction of woody cover since the Late Miocene epoch (about 7 million years ago). (13)C/(12)C ratio data from 1,300 palaeosols at or adjacent to hominin sites dating to at least 6 million years ago show that woody cover was predominantly less than ～40% at most sites. These data point to the prevalence of open environments at the majority of hominin fossil sites in eastern Africa over the past 6 million years.     

Southern Ocean dust-climate coupling over the past four million years

Dust has the potential to modify global climate by influencing the radiative balance of the atmosphere and by supplying iron and other essential limiting micronutrients to the ocean. Indeed, dust supply to the Southern Ocean increases during ice ages, and 'iron fertilization' of the subantarctic zone may have contributed up to 40?parts per million by volume (p.p.m.v.) of the decrease (80-100 p.p.m.v.) in atmospheric carbon dioxide observed during late Pleistocene glacial cycles. So far, however, the magnitude of Southern Ocean dust deposition in earlier times and its role in the development and evolution of Pleistocene glacial cycles have remained unclear. Here we report a high-resolution record of dust and iron supply to the Southern Ocean over the past four million years, derived from the analysis of marine sediments from ODP Site 1090, located in the Atlantic sector of the subantarctic zone. The close correspondence of our dust and iron deposition records with Antarctic ice core reconstructions of dust flux covering the past 800,000 years (refs 8, 9) indicates that both of these archives record large-scale deposition changes that should apply to most of the Southern Ocean, validating previous interpretations of the ice core data. The extension of the record beyond the interval covered by the Antarctic ice cores reveals that, in contrast to the relatively gradual intensification of glacial cycles over the past three million years, Southern Ocean dust and iron flux rose sharply at the Mid-Pleistocene climatic transition around 1.25 million years ago. This finding complements previous observations over late Pleistocene glacial cycles, providing new evidence of a tight connection between high dust input to the Southern Ocean and the emergence of the deep glaciations that characterize the past one million years of Earth history.     

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 60 million years

Knowledge of the evolution of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations throughout the Earth's history is important for a reconstruction of the links between climate and radiative forcing of the Earth's surface temperatures. Although atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations in the early Cenozoic era (about 60 Myr ago) are widely believed to have been higher than at present, there is disagreement regarding the exact carbon dioxide levels, the timing of the decline and the mechanisms that are most important for the control of CO2 concentrations over geological timescales. Here we use the boron-isotope ratios of ancient planktonic foraminifer shells to estimate the pH of surface-layer sea water throughout the past 60 million years, which can be used to reconstruct atmospheric CO2 concentrations. We estimate CO2 concentrations of more than 2,000 p.p.m. for the late Palaeocene and earliest Eocene periods (from about 60 to 52 Myr ago), and find an erratic decline between 55 and 40 Myr ago that may have been caused by reduced CO2 outgassing from ocean ridges, volcanoes and metamorphic belts and increased carbon burial. Since the early Miocene (about 24 Myr ago), atmospheric CO2 concentrations appear to have remained below 500 p.p.m. and were more stable than before, although transient intervals of CO2 reduction may have occurred during periods of rapid cooling approximately 15 and 3 Myr ago.     

Ocean circulation and climate during the past 120,000 years

Oceans cover more than two-thirds of our blue planet. The waters move in a global circulation system, driven by subtle density differences and transporting huge amounts of heat. Ocean circulation is thus an active and highly nonlinear player in the global climate game. Increasingly clear evidence implicates ocean circulation in abrupt and dramatic climate shifts, such as sudden temperature changes in Greenland on the order of 5-10 degrees C and massive surges of icebergs into the North Atlantic Ocean --events that have occurred repeatedly during the last glacial cycle.     

Geomagnetic dipole strength and reversal rate over the past two million years

Independent records of relative magnetic palaeointensity from sediment cores in different areas of the world can be stacked together to extract the evolution of the geomagnetic dipole moment and thus provide information regarding the processes governing the geodynamo. So far, this procedure has been limited to the past 800,000 years (800 kyr; ref. 3), which does not include any geomagnetic reversals. Here we present a composite curve that shows the evolution of the dipole moment during the past two million years. This reconstruction is in good agreement with the absolute dipole moments derived from volcanic lavas, which were used for calibration. We show that, at least during this period, the time-averaged field was higher during periods without reversals but the amplitude of the short-term oscillations remained the same. As a consequence, few intervals of very low intensity, and thus fewer instabilities, are expected during periods with a strong average dipole moment, whereas more excursions and reversals are expected during periods of weak field intensity. We also observe that the axial dipole begins to decay 60-80 kyr before reversals, but rebuilds itself in the opposite direction in only a few thousand years.     

Constant elevation of southern Tibet over the past 15 million years

The uplift of the Tibetan plateau, an area that is 2,000 km wide, to an altitude of about 5,000 m has been shown to modify global climate and to influence monsoon intensity. Mechanical and thermal models for homogeneous thickening of the lithosphere make specific predictions about uplift rates of the Tibetan plateau, but the precise history of the uplift of the plateau has yet to be confirmed by observations. Here we present well-preserved fossil leaf assemblages from the Namling basin, southern Tibet, dated to approximately 15 Myr ago, which allow us to reconstruct the temperatures within the basin at that time. Using a numerical general circulation model to estimate moist static energy at the location of the fossil leaves, we reconstruct the elevation of the Namling basin 15 Myr ago to be 4,689 +/- 895 m or 4,638 +/- 847 m, depending on the reference data used. This is comparable to the present-day altitude of 4,600 m. We conclude that the elevation of the southern Tibetan plateau probably has remained unchanged for the past 15 Myr.     

Climate sensitivity constrained by CO2 concentrations over the past 420 million years

A firm understanding of the relationship between atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration and temperature is critical for interpreting past climate change and for predicting future climate change. A recent synthesis suggests that the increase in global-mean surface temperature in response to a doubling of the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, termed 'climate sensitivity', is between 1.5 and 6.2 degrees C (5-95 per cent likelihood range), but some evidence is inconsistent with this range. Moreover, most estimates of climate sensitivity are based on records of climate change over the past few decades to thousands of years, when carbon dioxide concentrations and global temperatures were similar to or lower than today, so such calculations tend to underestimate the magnitude of large climate-change events and may not be applicable to climate change under warmer conditions in the future. Here we estimate long-term equilibrium climate sensitivity by modelling carbon dioxide concentrations over the past 420 million years and comparing our calculations with a proxy record. Our estimates are broadly consistent with estimates based on short-term climate records, and indicate that a weak radiative forcing by carbon dioxide is highly unlikely on multi-million-year timescales. We conclude that a climate sensitivity greater than 1.5 degrees C has probably been a robust feature of the Earth's climate system over the past 420 million years, regardless of temporal scaling.     

Reconstructed changes in Arctic sea ice over the past 1,450 years

Arctic sea ice extent is now more than two million square kilometres less than it was in the late twentieth century, with important consequences for the climate, the ocean and traditional lifestyles in the Arctic. Although observations show a more or less continuous decline for the past four or five decades, there are few long-term records with which to assess natural sea ice variability. Until now, the question of whether or not current trends are potentially anomalous has therefore remained unanswerable. Here we use a network of high-resolution terrestrial proxies from the circum-Arctic region to reconstruct past extents of summer sea ice, and show that-although extensive uncertainties remain, especially before the sixteenth century-both the duration and magnitude of the current decline in sea ice seem to be unprecedented for the past 1,450 years. Enhanced advection of warm Atlantic water to the Arctic seems to be the main factor driving the decline of sea ice extent on multidecadal timescales, and may result from nonlinear feedbacks between sea ice and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation. These results reinforce the assertion that sea ice is an active component of Arctic climate variability and that the recent decrease in summer Arctic sea ice is consistent with anthropogenically forced warming.     

Homogeneous climate variability across East Antarctica over the past three glacial cycles

Recent ice core studies have raised the disturbing possibility that glacial-interglacial climate changes may be non-uniform across Antarctica. These findings have been confined to records from the Ross Sea sector of the continent, but significant deviations in other areas would call into question the widely assumed validity of the climate record obtained from Vostok, East Antarctica, on large spatial scales. Here we present an isotopic profile from a core drilled at Dome Fuji, situated 1,500 km from Vostok in a different sector of East Antarctica. The two records show remarkable similarities over the past three glacial cycles (the extent of the Dome Fuji record) in both large-amplitude changes, such as terminations, interglacials and interstadials and more subtle glacial events, even when the origin of precipitation is accounted for. Our results indicate that Antarctic climate is essentially homogeneous at the scale of the East Antarctic Plateau, possibly as a consequence of the symmetry of the plateau and the adjacent ocean.     

拉萨市近36年气候变化特征分析

目的利用1978-2013年拉萨市所属4个气象站点(当雄、尼木、拉萨、墨竹工卡)的气温和降水资料,研究拉萨市4个气象站点近36年的气候变化特征,为当地4个县区人们的日常生活和社会经济发展提供科学指导。方法采用趋势系数法研究其气候变化趋势,用曼-肯德尔(Mann-Kendall)法,对气象数据进行时间序列的趋势分析及突变检验,并对各站点的气候特征进行比较分析。结果与结论(1)4个站点年平均气温呈波动上升趋势,增温最快的是拉萨站,速率为0.66℃/10a,速率最慢的尼木站为0.34℃/10a;(2)各站点的降水表现为缓慢地波动上升趋势,均表现为夏季降水量远远多于其它季节,冬季降水量呈减少趋势;(3)除拉萨和墨竹工卡站气温未发生突变,其它2个站点气温突变显著,4个站点的降水突变显著。     

河套灌区近50年气候变化特征及趋势分析

以河套灌区为研究区,收集、整理和分析了河套灌区由西向东的磴口、杭后、临河、五原、前旗5个区域近50年的气候资料:包括降水量、气温、日照总时数、无霜期、平均风速、蒸发量等,分别运用线性趋势法、Mann-Kendell法和小波分析等手段,研究了该地区不同时段、不同区域的气象因子的趋势性、突变性和周期性.结果显示:近50年来灌区年平均气温呈逐年上升的趋势,并且通过了M-K显著性检验.50年间增温幅度约为2℃,各月极端气温差约为41℃,且各月气温呈明显的升高趋势,突变点为1990年;灌区年降水量在波动中呈微弱增加的线性趋势,增加总量不足10mm;而灌区年蒸发量自2000年以来呈现出明显的增加趋势,增加的蒸发量体现在春季的2、3、4月份;灌区年平均风速有明显的降低趋势,突变点为2000年;年日照总时数有变短、年无霜期有增加趋势,但二者变化趋势并不明显.     

杭州市近50年气候舒适度变化

目的分析杭州市气候舒适度的多年变化特征。方法运用气候舒适度分析方法,选用国家气象局规定的统一标准,计算分析了杭州市气候舒适度指数的变化情况。结果杭州市50年来平均温度呈上升趋势,平均相对湿度呈下降趋势,平均风速变化不明显。气候舒适度总体呈上升趋势;从不同等级气候舒适度天数变化来看,总体上表现为人体感觉冷不舒服的天数为减少的趋势;而人体感觉热不舒服的天数变化不明显;人体感觉舒服的天数也表现为增加趋势。结论气候变化对杭州的气候舒适度发展总体有利。     

Conceptual model of the Bahamian Platform for the last 135 million years

The subsidence history of the Bahamian Platform points to a non-uniform rate of sea-floor spreading since the beginning of the Cretaceous. Lower Cretaceous rates of perhaps 5 cm/yr led to an active trench system at the boundary between the American and Caribbean lithosphere plates, and the rapid subsidence of the continental margin produced graben faults on the Bahamian Platform and normal faults in Cuba.     

过去1 300年南海东岛生态环境对气候变化的响应

东岛牛塘为目前在西沙群岛少见的淡水型湖泊,其中保存完好的粪土沉积物记录了距今1 300年来东岛生态环境演化历史.对DY4粪土沉积柱的研究结果表明,在1 400 AD前,东岛海鸟数量较多,牛塘湖岸周围植被生长较为繁盛,而在1 400~1 850 AD期间,东岛海鸟数量和植被生长都处于低谷.通过综合对比研究区、中国乃至北半球降雨量、温度变化记录,发现1 400 AD前岛屿生物量较高的时期对应于暖干的中世纪温暖期,而低生物量时期与凉湿的小冰期一致,证明南海热带孤立岛屿生态系统对区域乃至全球气候环境变化响应非常灵敏.     

North Pacific seasonality and the glaciation of North America 2.7 million years ago

In the context of gradual Cenozoic cooling, the timing of the onset of significant Northern Hemisphere glaciation 2.7 million years ago is consistent with Milankovitch's orbital theory, which posited that ice sheets grow when polar summertime insolation and temperature are low. However, the role of moisture supply in the initiation of large Northern Hemisphere ice sheets has remained unclear. The subarctic Pacific Ocean represents a significant source of water vapour to boreal North America, but it has been largely overlooked in efforts to explain Northern Hemisphere glaciation. Here we present alkenone unsaturation ratios and diatom oxygen isotope ratios from a sediment core in the western subarctic Pacific Ocean, indicating that 2.7 million years ago late-summer sea surface temperatures in this ocean region rose in response to an increase in stratification. At the same time, winter sea surface temperatures cooled, winter floating ice became more abundant and global climate descended into glacial conditions. We suggest that the observed summer warming extended into the autumn, providing water vapour to northern North America, where it precipitated and accumulated as snow, and thus allowed the initiation of Northern Hemisphere glaciation.     

Reorganization of the western Himalayan river system after five million years ago

Uplift of mountains driven by tectonic forces can influence regional climate as well as regional drainage patterns, which in turn control the discharge of eroded sediment to the ocean. But the nature of the interactions between tectonic forces, climate and drainage evolution remains contested. Here we reconstruct the erosional discharge from the Indus river over the past 30 million years using seismic reflection data obtained from drill core samples from the Arabian Sea and neodymium isotope data. We find that the source of the Indus sediments was dominated by erosion within and north of the Indus suture zone until five million years ago; after that, the river began to receive more erosional products from Himalayan sources. We propose that this change in the erosional pattern is caused by a rerouting of the major rivers of the Punjab into the Indus, which flowed east into the Ganges river before that time. Seismic reflection profiles from the Indus fan suggest high mass accumulation rates during the Pleistocene epoch partly driven by increased drainage to the Indus river after five million years ago and partly by faster erosion linked to a stronger monsoon over the past four million years. Our isotope stratigraphy for the Indus fan provides strong evidence for a significant change in the geometry of western Himalayan river systems in the recent geologic past.     

Rapid evolution of the most luminous galaxies during the first 900 million years

The first 900 million years (Myr) to redshift z approximately 6 (the first seven per cent of the age of the Universe) remains largely unexplored for the formation of galaxies. Large samples of galaxies have been found at z approximately 6 (refs 1-4) but detections at earlier times are uncertain and unreliable. It is not at all clear how galaxies built up from the first stars when the Universe was about 300 Myr old (z approximately 12-15) to z approximately 6, just 600 Myr later. Here we report the results of a search for galaxies at z approximately 7-8, about 700 Myr after the Big Bang, using the deepest near-infrared and optical images ever taken. Under conservative selection criteria we find only one candidate galaxy at z approximately 7-8, where ten would be expected if there were no evolution in the galaxy population between z approximately 7-8 and z approximately 6. Using less conservative criteria, there are four candidates, where 17 would be expected with no evolution. This demonstrates that very luminous galaxies are quite rare 700 Myr after the Big Bang. The simplest explanation is that the Universe is just too young to have built up many luminous galaxies at z approximately 7-8 by the hierarchical merging of small galaxies.