The Complexity and Application Research of Several Attractors About Economic System Time Series

In this paper, time series with stable convergence, saddles, Hopf bifurcations and chaotic points in one kind of complicated systems have been studied in respects of： fractal characteristic and fractal dimension. By using phase space reconstruction technology of chaotic time series, work of reconstruction has been done respectively on these four different conditions and further by applying wavelet network models, work of modeling and prediction have been done accordingly. The results indicate： treatment of zero mean value in the identification of the chaotic models has no obvious influence on precision and length of predictions, while the treatment by Fourier Filter can damage effectiveness of prediction.     

The Grid Algorithm of the Development Coefficient and the Combination Coefficient of Background Value in GM（1,1） Model

This article gives the algorithm of the sector in which the development coefficient is, and the steps to simultaneously calculate the development coefficient and combination coefficient of background value. Unifying the development coefficient and the background value＇s coefficient of combination to optimize the model together, avoiding the malpractice to separate the two in traditional method, and avoiding the error brought out by matrix multiplication because of matrix＇s illness and so on in the traditional way, therefore increases the precision of the model.     

Estimation of Parameter in the Case of Zero-Failure Data

l IntroductionFrom the article [l] presenting, the zero-failure data research has been twenty years longand more attention is paid by researchers all over the world. We have got someachievements already. The devclopment of these researches can be found in article L2j'In article [3j, a method dealing with zero-failure data, that is, distribution curvesmethod, is given and has more values. The basic thought is: at first estimation the failureprobability pi = p {Twtt. } at moment l,, then appro…     

Industrial Chain： Industrial Vertical Definition

Like value chain and supply chain, “industrial chain” becomes the focus of attention. The implication of “industrial chain” has gained a large range of extension. It not only expresses the industrial “chain” structure and relationship of “back and forward”in order or “up and down” in direction, but also it represents a cluster of large scale of firms in an area or colony. It is a network, or a community. Consequently, we conclude that “industrial chain” is a synthesis of industrial chain, industrial cluster, or industrial network.In this article, firstly we will distinguish industry chain from industry. An industry is the collection of firms that have the same attribute, so an industry can be defined by firm collection of certain attribute. We indicate that industrial chain is a kind of vertical and orderly industrial link. It is defined according to a series of specific product or service created. Secondly we analyze the vertical orderly defiinition process from the aspects of social division of labor and requirement division, self-organization system, and value analysis.Non-symmetry and depending on system or community of large scale of industrial units lead to entire industry to “orderly” structure. On the other hand, the draught of diversity and complexity of requirement simultaneously lead to entire industry to be more “orderly”. Along with processes of self-organization, industrial will appi‘oach the state of more orderly and steady, and constantly make industrial chain upgrade. Each firm or unit, who will gain the value, has to establish channels of value, which we called “industrial value chain”. Lastly,we discuss the consequence of vertical and orderly definition, which is exhibited by a certain relationship body. The typical forms of industrial chain include industrial cluster, strategy alliance and vertical integration etc.     

The Synthetic Evaluation of Warhead Overall Efficiency

Abstract: The evaluation system of smart ammunition warhead overall efficiency has been established in this paper. Allkinds of evaluation methods have been analyzed. Having led the concept of hierarchical structure into technique for orderpreference by similarity to ideal solution (TOPSIS) method, we put forward the step TOPSIS method which is suitable forevaluating the overall efficiency of smart ammunition warheads. In the calculation of index weight, the graded weight cal-culus is put forward which hardly relies on the subjectivity of decision-makers and can reflect the sensitivity and compatibili-ty of the index. In the graded weight calculation, the proportional-arithmetic weight value calculus and sensitivity-compati-bility weight value calculus are given respectively.     

SERVICE VALUE NETWORKS： INTO PRACTICE

Modeling a business to match its customer perceived （and customer desired） outcomes, remains an on-going task. This paper considers shows how a service value networks （SVNs） approach may be engaged to model, and deliver, understanding of the front-end business and its direct engagement with its immediate （or front-end） customers. These front-end customers may be either： （1） its off-line, in-store customers - engaging directly with the business sales staff （or representative）, or-（2） its on-line, virtual customers - engaging with the business via internet or remote access. In this situation, both the business, and the customer draw upon their respective viewpoints, and both sides influence the interaction. External to these business and customer influences are additional factors that capture the immediate and broader global effects - termed environmental effects. These three business-customer engagement areas of influence are captured by a SVN SEM approach.
Without a business-customer encounter of some kind the likelihood of a services business, and a prospecting customer, successfully engaging in an exchange process is reduced. This exchange may be a physical, and/or services exchange, and/or an information and/or ideas exchange. To the business, this encounter is, in effect, a trade, and as a result, the business targets acquiring an economic exchange that will ultimately deliver a net positive economic outcome. To the customer, external and internal information feeds, servicing, perceived value, and satisfaction, are key encounter drivers. SVNs offers a new way to understand the business-customer encounter, and to then utilize this acquired knowledge to either： （1） build a strategic management model, or （2） reengineer its business networks, and to then create a re-positioned, more customer-aligned business operation - one that is capable of delivering win - win, competitive business-customer solutions.     

Combined model based on optimized multi-variable grey model and multiple linear regression

The construction method of background value is improved in the original multi-variable grey model (MGM(1,m)) from its source of construction errors.The MGM(1,m) with optimized background value is used to eliminate the random fluctuations or errors of the observational data of all variables,and the combined prediction model together with the multiple linear regression is established in order to improve the simulation and prediction accuracy of the combined model.Finally,a combined model of the MGM(1,2) with optimized background value and the binary linear regression is constructed by an example.The results show that the model has good effects for simulation and prediction.     

CUSTOMER EQUITY： MAKING MARKETING STRATEGY FINANCIALLY ACCOUNTABLE

1. Introduction The long-term value of a firm is largelydetermined by the value of the company’scustomer relationships, which result in thefirm’s ‘customer equity’ (Blattberg andDeighton 1996), defined by Rust, Lemon andZeithaml (2000, p.4…     

LIMIT BEHMIOUR OF SOLUTIONS TO EQUIVALUED SURFACE BOUNDARY VALUE PROBLEM FOR PARABOLIC EQUATIONS

IIntroduction and Main Resultsu厄 discuss the limit behaviour ofsolutlons to equlvalued sur珐ce boundaryary value problemsfor parabolic equation when the space dimension of*theion domain Is two or more、The practl－caf applications and physical backgyound for the pajrabollc ho。dary va。problems with theequl、ined surface boundary condition m的 be found in[1],[2]．历r the c。es ofN二 2;3,thelimit beh。tours ofsolutions h。been discussed In[3],[4]．Inttus paper,we discuss the casewhere the sP…     

利益相关者价值状态、合作关系与价值网络绩效

首先分析从价值链到价值网络转变的复杂性,然后以网络结点的利润期望测度网络绩效,采用模型构建、模拟分析方法,研究了利益相关者价值状态、合作关系对网络绩效的影响.主要结论为:高利润合作者数量与网络绩效正相关,低利润合作者数量与网络绩效负相关.合作关系增强,可使网络绩效上升、不变或下降,但不会无限上升或下降,最终趋于稳定.在相同价值状态组合下,垂直合作者对网络绩效的影响大于水平合作者,但变化范围也大.     

SERVICE VALUE NETWORKS： VALUE, PERFORMANCE AND STRATEGY FOR THE SERVICES INDUSTRY

1. Introduction The services industry provides services notgoods (Hughes and Mitchell et al., 1993). Thisindustry is moving towards globalization(Kathawala and Abdou, 2003). In 1870 theservice sector employed slightly more than 20%of the U.S.…     

基于CVM的建筑废弃物回收利用非市场价值评估

本研究以建筑废弃物为研究对象,通过问卷形式调查绵阳市居民对建筑废弃物回收利用非市场价值的认知以及支付意愿,在此基础上采用条件价值法(contingent value method,CVM)对建筑废弃物回收利用的非市场价值进行核算和评估,并分析影响居民支付意愿的因素.结果显示:2015年绵阳建筑废弃物回收利用非市场价值为8.29亿元,占2015年绵阳市建筑业总产值的2.19%;城市,农村居民的平均支付意愿分别为584.88元/(户每年)和208.08元/(户每年),分别占家庭年平均收入的0.91%和0.55%.由此可知,建筑废弃物回收利用非市场价值巨大,但平均支付意愿在家庭年平均收入中所占比例较低,说明居民对建筑废弃物回收利用非市场价值支付意愿还很低.研究发现,居民对建筑废弃物价值的认知程度和政府对建筑废弃物回收利用经费的透明化管理是影响城乡居民支付意愿的主要因素.因此,加强建筑废弃物回收利用宣传教育和经费透明化管理,是提高居民支付意愿,改善建筑废弃物回收利用现状的有效手段.     

基于背景值和边值修正的GM(1,1)模型优化

针对灰色GM(1,1)预测模型提高精度的问题, 提出了新的背景值优化公式代替传统的背景值优化公式, 再进行边值修正的方法. 该方法采用新的背景值优化公式求出紧邻均值生成序列, 并使用均方误差和最小准则, 针对原始序列和生成序列进行边值的修正. 通过对优化后的模型实证测算, 验证了修正后的模型在提高预测精度上的可行性和有效性.     

中国工业增加值的半月预报:基于宏观月度数据

工业增加值是衡量实体经济成效的重要指标,随着中国经济不确定性加剧,更及时地预报其增速显得尤为重要.本文首先建立前沿的混频结构向量自回归模型,再从中导出预报数学表达式并给出向前滚动预测形式,并将预报模型化为状态空间结构,采用Bootstrap重要性抽样步骤实现模型的稳健性检验.基于1996年1月至2016年3月的相关月度数据,实证研究表明:预报模型合理、参数估计具有收敛性和稳健性;除工业增加值自身惯性影响外,货币政策M2和消费方面社会消费品零售总额滞后1～2期对工业增加值增速半月频率具有显著正向冲击影响;全样本预报、部分样本预报和预见性外推预报合理可行,半月预报能有效预警工业增加值波动规律.最后,针对性地提出相关政策启示和展望.     

单位根检验中的Wald检验量研究：Bootstrap法VS临界值法

针对Wald临界值检验方法存在检验水平扭曲和功效低下的不足,提出了Wald检验量的Bootstrap检验方法,并从理论上证明了该方法的有效性;借助于蒙特卡罗模拟技术对两种检验方法进行对比.结果表明：在无漂移项数据生成过程中,两种方法的实际覆盖率分别为100%和72.9%,精确程度之比为33：15;在有漂移项的数据生成过程中,实际覆盖率分别为94.4%和77.8%,精确程度之比为20：15;在检验功效方面,Bootstrap方法较临界值检验具有明显的优势,尤其是在小样本下;由标准正态分布得到的临界值对其它误差分布类型缺乏稳健性.实证分析也表明由Bootstrap检验方法得到的模型更符合实际情况.因此,Bootstrap方法可以替代临界值方法进行单位根的Wald检验.     

Technical Notes ：STUDIES ON THE VALUE OF SECONDARY MARKET TO THE SUPPLY CHAIN

This paper investigates the impact of a secondary market, where retailers can buy and sell excessinventories, on the supply chain. We develop a two-period model with a single manufacturer and tworetailers. At the beginning of the first period the retailers order and receive products from themanufacturer, but at the beginning of the second period, they can trade surplus products betweenthemselves in the secondary market. We investigate the impact of the correlated dependence ofretailers' demand on both the quantity effect and the allocation effect under the secondary market.Lastly,we study potential strategies for the manufacturer to increase sales with the existence of thesecondary market.     

供应链中共享信息价值的量化:基于Agent的仿真研究

对于供应链管理来说，量化的信息价值有助于供应链成员之间的协调和信息共享战略的实施．为此，考虑一个面临非线性需求AR(1)的三层供应链系统，利用Agent对其进行建模，同时讨论了系统中Agent的结构、Agent之间的交互与决策以及基于Agent的供应链系统的运作过程．在此基础上，对供应链中共享信息的价值进行了仿真研究．在仿真实例中，分析了共享信息对整个供应链系统成本以及各供应链成员成本的影响，讨论了信息共享的价值在供应链成员中的分布及对分销商成本结构的影响．