区间删失复发事件数据混合效应模型

通过向一般速率模型中引入随机效应项来研究区间删失复发事件数据的个体异质性,允许协变量对含有区间删失的复发事件数据产生影响。在给定随机因子和协变量的条件下建立基于区间删失复发事件数据的混合效应模型。利用极大似然方法估计此模型中所感兴趣的参数,证明此混合效应模型中参数估计的相合性与渐近正态性。通过大量的数值模拟试验研究混合效应模型和参数估计方法的有限样本性质,对一组真实膀胱癌数据的分析表明服用三胺硫磷可以降低膀胱癌的复发率。     

Weibull分布线性回归模型的统计诊断

研究了Weibull分布线性回归模型的参数估计和统计诊断问题.首先给出参数估计的迭代算法,分析了统计诊断中数据删除模型(CDM)和均值漂移模型(MSOM)的等价性问题,最后进行了数据模拟和实例分析.     

基于项目反应理论的教育测量模拟软件-WinGen

WinGen是一种基于Windows系统下的项目参数、被试以及作答数据的模拟软件,该软件不仅支持众多的单维项目反应模型,也支持多维项目反应模型。研究通过使用WinGen实现被试、项目和作答的蒙特卡罗模拟,并用Bilog对作答数据进行了参数估计,最后通过计算参数估计的各个评价指标,结果表明使用WinGen模拟的数据质量优良,与模型的拟合性较好,可以满足广大测量研究者在不同条件下数据的模拟,研究者可以在模拟数据的基础进行进一步的分析和研究。     

基于ARMA-TS-GARCH有限混合模型的交通数据分析

基于对时间序列数据进行研究时不仅需要对它们的自回归性和周期性进行分析,而且需要对序列的方差与长期性无规则波动进行分析等问题,提出基于ARMA模型和APARCH模型的ARMA-TS-GARCH模型,并且对该模型的构造进行分析,针对洛杉矶长滩地区交通量数据进行模型参数估计和诊断检验,将此模型与GARCH和ARMA-GARCH模型进行比较。研究结果表明:ARMA-TS-GARCH模型对数据的拟合要优于ARMA模型和APARCH模型;用ARMA-TS-GARCH模型对数据集进行预测,所得结果较理想。     

一种涵道无人直升机模型参数辨识试验策略

针对样例涵道无人直升机,考虑机体振动等环境因素对输出数据的污染,提出一种样例无人直升机悬停模态下模型参数辨识方法．针对带角速率反馈的广义直升机参数辨识模型．利用直升机角速率、线加速度和操纵量依次独立辨识纵向通道模型参数Iy,Ib和Cr．首先根据传感器输出噪声方差先验信息筛选观测数据,有效剔除由此产生的部分野值样本．然后进一步采用低通滤波器对观测数据进行滤波．通过最小二乘法进行二次辨识．试验结果表明．该方法可显著提高模型参数辨识精度并降低参数估计的标准差．     

考虑稳态和动态数据的S-型生化系统参数估计方法

针对具有稳态实验数据和动态实验数据的一类S-型生化系统的参数估计问题,以浓度误差、斜率误差与稳态误差之和为极小化目标,构建了一种参数估计优化模型。为了求解参数估计问题,利用四阶龙格库塔离散化格式,将优化问题中的微分方程转化为代数方程,同时将所构建的优化模型转化为稳态约束条件下的非线性规划问题。为了求解上述非线性规划问题,应用样条插值估计实验值的速率。为了说明算法的有效性可行性,将建立的优化模型与求解方法应用到已有的S-型生化系统中,并绘制了仿真结果的图像。与已有方法比较,数值结果表明,加入稳态误差优化与稳态约束后,可获得更为精确的参数估计结果。     

乙酸光氯化制备氯乙酸的反应动力学

在环流反应器中实测了在光照下，不同氯化温度时乙酸、氯乙酸和二氯乙酸的浓度随反应时间的变化关系。建立了乙酸光氯化连串反应动力学模型（Ⅰ）和平行－连串反应动力学模型（Ⅱ），得到了模型的解析解，通过参数估计，求得了一有观反应速率常数。经模型检验，发现模型（Ⅱ）与实验数据的吻合程度较好，计算了实验温度下的氯气在乙酸－氯乙酸混合液中的溶解度数据，结合表观反应速率常数，计算得到了本征反应速率常数。     

语音识别中ARMA模型的研究

在用线性时间序列模型拟合语音数据时(例如用AR模型拟合),模型阶数越高,参数个数越多,统计计算时误差越大.本文在理论上对ARMA(1,q)模型的参数估计进行了推导,在数值计算上,得到了ARMA(1,0)模型的参数估计并对模型进行拟合,解决了用AR模型拟合语音数据时,统计计算时误差较大的问题.     

随机微分方程的非参数估计 及其在股票指数中的应用 3

建立了股票指数的随机微分方程模型,采用非参数估计方法对其进行估计,并给出了相应的非参数估计表达式,接着给出了具体的非参数估计算法,最后利用上证指数的收盘价数据进行实证分析,实证表明该模型能较好的刻画股票指数的许多统计特征,非参数估计方法也切实有效,模拟效果较好,能较好的预测股票指数的未来趋势。     

指数族非线性随机效应模型的参数估计及其性质

对指数族非线性随机效应模型进行了较详细的讨论，给出了参数估计的方法，证明了参数估计的相合性与渐近正态性，最后人出一个具体实例。     

Markedness and its Interpretation in Language Use

Language markedness is a common phenomenon in languages, and is reflected from hearing, vision and sense, i.e. the variation in the three aspects such as phonology, morphology and semantics. This paper focuses on the interpretation of markedness in language use following the three perspectives, i.e. pragmatic interpretation, psychological interpretation and cognitive interpretation, with an aim to define the function of markedness.     

Characterization of Ordovician carbonate reservoirs, southeastern Saskatchewan, Canada

The discovery of the prolific Ordovician Red River reservoirs in 1995 in southeastern Saskatchewan was the catalyst for extensive exploration activity which resulted in the discovery of more than 15 new Red River pools. The best yields of Red River production to date have been from dolomite reservoirs. Understanding the processes of dolomitization is, therefore, crucial for the prediction of the connectivity, spatial distribution and heterogeneity of dolomite reservoirs.The Red River reservoirs in the Midale area consist of 3～4 thin dolomitized zones, with a total thickness of about 20 m, which occur at the top of the Yeoman Formation. Two types of replacement dolomite were recognized in the Red River reservoir: dolomitized burrow infills and dolomitized host matrix. The spatial distribution of dolomite suggests that burrowing organisms played an important role in facilitating the fluid flow in the backfilled sediments. This resulted in penecontemporaneous dolomitization of burrow infills by normal seawater. The dolomite in the host matrix is interpreted as having occurred at shallow burial by evaporitic seawater during precipitation of Lake Almar anhydrite that immediately overlies the Yeoman Formation. However, the low δ18O values of dolomited burrow infills (-5.9‰～ -7.8‰, PDB) and matrix dolomites (-6.6‰～ -8.1‰, avg. -7.4‰ PDB) compared to the estimated values for the late Ordovician marine dolomite could be attributed to modification and alteration of dolomite at higher temperatures during deeper burial, which could also be responsible for its 87Sr/86Sr ratios (0.7084～0.7088) that are higher than suggested for the late Ordovician seawaters (0.7078～0.7080). The trace amounts of saddle dolomite cement in the Red River carbonates are probably related to "cannibalization" of earlier replacement dolomite during the chemical compaction.     

Features of Women's language

Language is a means of verbal communication. People use language to communicate with each other. In the society, no two speakers are exactly alike in the way of speaking. Some differences are due to age, gender, statue and personality. Above all, gender is one of the obvious reasons. The writer of this paper tries to describe the features of women＇s language from these perspectives： pronunciation, intonation, diction, subjects, grammar and discourse. From the discussion of the features of women＇s language, more attention should be paid to language use in social context. What＇s more, the linguistic phenomena in a speaking community can be understood more thoroughly.     

A computer generator for randomly layered structures

AcomputergeneratorforrandomlylayeredstructuresYUJia shun1,2,HEZhen hua2(1.TheInstituteofGeologicalandNuclearSciences,NewZealand;2.StateKeyLaboratoryofOilandGasReservoirGeologyandExploitation,ChengduUniversityofTechnology,China)Abstract:Analgorithmisintrod…     

低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度研究

理论推导与室内实验相结合,建立了低渗透非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度确定方法。首先借助油藏流场与电场相似的原理,推导了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度计算公式。其次基于稳定流实验方法,建立了非均质砂岩油藏启动压力梯度测试方法。结果表明:低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的启动压力梯度确定遵循两个等效原则。平面非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各级渗透率段的启动压力梯度关于长度的加权平均;纵向非均质油藏的启动压力梯度等于各渗透率层的启动压力梯度关于渗透率与渗流面积乘积的加权平均。研究成果可用于有效指导低渗透非均质砂岩油藏的合理井距确定,促进该类油藏的高效开发。     

On Tragic Consciousness In The Works By Ernest Hemingway

As an American modern novelist who were famous in the literary world, Hemingway was not a person who always followed the trend but a sharp observer. At the same time, he was a tragedy maestro, he paid great attention on existence, fate and end-result. The dramatis personae's tragedy of his works was an extreme limit by all means tragedy on the meaning of fearless challenge that failed. The beauty of tragedy was not produced on the destruction of life, but now this kind of value was in the impact activity. They performed for the reader about the tragedy on challenging for the limit and the death.     

海南岛地体及其毗邻陆缘晚中生代—新生代古地磁研究和构造演化

本文叙述了对海南岛及其毗邻大陆边缘白垩纪到第四纪地层岩石进行古地磁研究的全部工作过程。通过分析岩石中剩余磁矢量的磁偏角及磁倾角的变化,提出海南岛白垩纪以来经历的构造演化模式如下:早期伴随顺时针旋转而向南迁移,后期伴随逆时针转动并向北运移。联系该地区及邻区的地质、地球物理资料,对海南岛上述的构造地体运动提出以下认识:北部湾内早期有一拉张作用,主要是该作用使湾内地壳显著伸长减薄,形成北部湾盆地。从而导致了海南岛的早期构造运动,而海南岛后期的构造运动则主要是受南海海底扩张的影响。海南地体运动规律的阐明对于了解北部湾油气盆地的形成演化有重要的理论和实际意义。     

An Index mechanism for multi-scale view in spatial databases

There are numerous geometric objects stored in the spatial databases. An importance function in a spatial database is that users can browse the geometric objects as a map efficiently. Thus the spatial database should display the geometric objects users concern about swiftly onto the display window. This process includes two operations:retrieve data from database and then draw them onto screen. Accordingly, to improve the efficiency, we should try to reduce time of both retrieving object and displaying them. The former can be achieved with the aid of spatial index such as R-tree, the latter require to simplify the objects. Simplification means that objects are shown with sufficient but not with unnecessary detail which depend on the scale of browse. So the major problem is how to retrieve data at different detail level efficiently. This paper introduces the implementation of a multi-scale index in the spatial database SISP (Spatial Information Shared Platform) which is generalized from R-tree. The difference between the generalization and the R-tree lies on two facets: One is that every node and geometric object in the generalization is assigned with a importance value which denote the importance of them, and every vertex in the objects are assigned with a importance value,too. The importance value can be use to decide which data should be retrieve from disk in a query. The other difference is that geometric objects in the generalization are divided into one or more sub-blocks, and vertexes are total ordered by their importance value. With the help of the generalized R-tree, one can easily retrieve data at different detail levels.Some experiments are performed on real-life data to evaluate the performance of solutions that separately use normal spatial index and multi-scale spatial index. The results show that the solution using multi-scale index in SISP is satisfying.     

《Chinese Science Bulletin》SUBJECT INDEX TO VOLUME 59(2014)

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Achieving Unusual States of Matter Under High Pressure

The elongation method,originally proposed by Imamura was further developed for many years in our group.As a method towards O(N)with high efficiency and high accuracy for any dimensional systems.This treatment designed for one-dimensional(ID)polymers is now available for three-dimensional(3D)systems,but geometry optimization is now possible only for 1D-systems.As an approach toward post-Hartree-Fock,it was also extended to