企业战略变革过程中的冲突影响研究——基于认知的视角

本研究基于认知的视角,从理论上分析了企业战略变革过程中冲突的形成与影响,提出了战略变革知觉、战略变革响应与冲突关系假设模型,并开展了实证分析.研究表明,战略变革知觉与战略变革响应正相关,冲突在两者之间起到中介作用.     

STRATEGIC DECISION MAKING FOR IMPROVED ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY： COALITIONS AND ATTITUDES

The utilization of decision support systems which are flexible enough to handle information about cooperative behavior and stakeholder attitudes are useful for analyzing complex social conflicts. One such conflict which arose from the redevelopment of a private brownfield property in Kitchener, Ontario, Canada is examined using such a decision support tool. Specifically, a formal model referred to as COAT which allows for the examination of conflicts with both coalition and attitude properties is rigorously defined and then implemented within the framework of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution in order that insights may be gained on how the decision makers can reach win-win resolutions.     

Multi-Agent Decision Making in Large-Scale Systems

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The Cost effectiveness and Risk Analysis of Dynamic Conflict Decision Making

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Conflict analysis approaches for investigating attitudes and misperceptions in the War of 1812

Formal systems engineering approaches to modeling misperceptions and attitudes are employed within the framework of the graph model for conflict resolution to systematically study the War of 1812 between the United States of America and Great Britain in order to provide enhanced insights into the causes of the war. More specifically, relational definitions for preferences, movements and stability concepts are defined for describing the attitudes and associated behavior of decision makers involved in a conflict. To capture misperceptions of decision makers in the War of 1812, attitudes are studied within the structure of a hypergame. Combining attitudes and misperceptions within the paradigm of the graph model furnishes the flexible analytical tool which demonstrates that misunderstanding of attitudes by Great Britain and the United States may have contributed to the outbreak of this nasty war.     

Analyzing market competition between Airbus and Boeing using a duo hierarchical graph model for conflict resolution

A duo hierarchical graph model for conflict resolution is developed to investigate market competition between Airbus and Boeing over aircraft sales in the Asia Pacific region. The duo hierarchical graph model, a significant extension of the graph model for conflict resolution methodology, contains two common decision makers, who take part in two related subconflicts, as well as local decision makers, who participate in only one subconflict. New stability definitions are proposed to describe forms of sanction unique to the hierarchical model. The interrelationships between stabilities in the overall graph model and in the two local models are investigated. Then the duo hierarchical graph model is applied to the competition between Airbus and Boeing in both the wide and narrow body markets in the Asia-Pacific region. The two types of Asian airlines have different operating strategies, so that the two markets constitute sub-competitions that can be modelled naturally using the duo hierarchical graph model. The stability results indicate a resolution for all decision makers that implies marketing strategies for the aircraft manufacturers and guidelines for aircraft purchase by the airlines. Thus, this model provides decision makers with a comprehensive understanding of the dynamics of the competition and guidance in identifying beneficial actions.     

资源约束条件下任务调度算法研究

如何解决资源约束条件下的任务调度问题，保证在资源使用存在冲突情况下, 多个任务高效执行, 其中合理的任务调度和资源冲突消解是影响任务执行效果的关键因素。基于工作流图模型提出了一套资源约束条件下任务调度的框架, 并针对调度过程中产生的资源冲突, 提出了两种任务调度算法: 一种算法通过任务关键度确定优先级, 并基于贪心策略和调整工作流图拓扑结构的方法, 在任务开始前确定任务调度方案; 另一种算法采取弹性资源调度的方式, 使产生冲突的任务优先在资源不足的条件下开始执行, 任务调度和执行交替进行。最后, 通过地震救援案例验证了相关算法可行性, 与求解资源约束条件下任务调度问题的两类典型方法中具有代表性的算法进行对比实验, 分析了所提两种算法的优势与意义。仿真结果表明，所提算法具有适用地震救援资源紧缺特点的优势。     

科技创新团队成员有限理性下的过程冲突博弈研究

由于科技创新团队成员个体的差异性,团队成员对于任务以及团队目标认知差异容易产生团队过程冲突.基于适度的过程冲突对团队协作较大的促进作用,研究构建了科技创新团队成员自身利益为博弈核心的过程冲突进化博弈模型,并对策略的进化稳定性进行分析(既保持适度的过程冲突).研究结果表明:团队成员选择冲突的净收益大于选择合作的超额收益时,团队成员在长期进化学习的过程中,都会逐渐产生破坏性冲突(彼此不合作);团队成员选择冲突的净收益小于选择合作的超额收益时,在成员长期的进化学习过程中,由于团队成员的有限理性,也无法借助博弈方成员的学习能力达到百分百的彼此合作,但是,通过对进化博弈结果中影响团队成员策略选择关键参数的调节,可以逐渐产生建设性冲突,达到使团队成员保持彼此合作的目的.     

基于网络分析法的逆向物流外包或自营决策

为了解决制造业逆向物流外包或自营决策问题,以网络分析法(analytic network process,ANP)理论为基础,建立了影响制造业逆向物流外包或自营决策的网络图。以某汽车制造企业为例,通过SD软件进行仿真模拟和灵敏度分析,透视影响该汽车制造企业逆向物流外包或自营决策的因素权重,验证了该网络图的有效性;同时提供了一种解决逆向物流决策问题的定量化思路,期望对企业的逆向物流运作提供决策借鉴。     

Conflict measure model for large group decision based on interval intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy number and its application

The problem of measuring conflict in large-group decision making is examined with every decision preference expressed by multiple interval intuitionistic trapezoidal fuzzy numbers （IITFNs）. First, a distance measurement between two IITFNs is given and a function of conflict between two members of the large group is proposed. Second, members of the large group are clustered. A measurement model of group conflict, which is applied to aggregating large-group preferences, is then proposed by employing the conflict measure of clusters. Finally, a simulation example is presented to validate the models. These models can deal with the preference analysis and coordination of a large-group decision, and are thus applicable to emergency group decision making.     

协同任务规划中基于约束满足的资源冲突检测与消解

资源的有限性以及活动的并发执行导致协同任务中极易发生资源冲突,需施加时间约束以限定活动执行时间从而避免冲突的出现。在分析多机协同任务的基础上,将任务过程转化为带有多容量资源的任务调度模型,根据模型时间特性给出资源冲突定义及其判断准则。提出基于最小冲突集的资源冲突检测算法,其中利用时间交叠关系的特点,将资源冲突的检测与消解问题转化为连通图中闭团的检查与消除问题。进而从约束满足的角度研究了基于最小承诺策略的消解算法。实验结果表明方法的有效性。     

基于改进冲突度量的证据组合新规则

针对DS组合规则对证据之间冲突度量估计比较“保守”的问题,提出了一种新的证据组合规则。新组合规则充分考虑了证据之间所有可能的冲突,从而使得在组合过程中不一致的信息被抑制,而一致的信息则被放大。与DS组合规则相比,根据新组合规则得到的合成证据收敛性更好,因此更有利于下一步的识别判决。数值实验验证了新组合规则的有效性。     

LAMOST观测控制系统中的冲突消解策略

LAMOST观测控制系统协作多个子系统完成观测计划的过程涉及多个命令,观测过程要求符合观测逻辑,并需要消除硬件冲突。利用时槽环技术成功地消除了观测过程中的观测逻辑冲突和硬件冲突,这种控制策略也可以推广到需要消除业务逻辑冲突和硬件设备冲突的复杂控制系统中。     

大规模系统中冲突的协商解

本文分析了由多个子系统构成的大系统中的决策问题, 研究了各子系统之间目标出现冲突时的解及调解方法。文章采用文献[6]中的多人多目标冲突模型来描述大系统中的冲突决策问题, 提出了大系统中冲突的协商解的概念, 并研究了其协商解的求取方法。     

动态冲突决策建模理论与方法及其在证券投资交易中的应用

试图建立一套用于动态冲突决策分析的理论与方法，给出了描述动态冲突决策分析、选择的几类基本概念，得到了冲突状态转移的基本途径以及冲突状态转移的定量描述与相关结论，同时获得在证券投资交易中的应用.     

解决冲突的图形模型在谈判支持系统中的应用

首先介绍冲突图形模型的基本原理,在此基础上对这种模型进行改进并探讨用于谈判支持系统的可行性.     

Dominating attitudes in the graph model for conflict resolution

A formal methodology for analyzing the importance of weighing a decision maker’s attitudes in a conflict is introduced and applied to the problem of negotiating a fair transfer of a brownfield property. A decision maker’s attitudes are expressed in his consideration of his own preferences,as well as those of his opponents.Dominating attitudes are used to suggest that in a circumstance in which a decision maker takes into account multiple perspectives due to his attitudes,he may favor one perspective more heavily.The analysis of a brownfield acquisition conflict illustrates the types of insights that this methodology reveals.     

模糊多目标主从冲突决策模型

应用模糊测试理论和模糊规划理论 ,针对决策约束条件的不确定性和目标的不确定性 ,研究了不确定性 Stackeberg冲突决策的数学模型 ,探讨了模糊平衡解与 Mash平衡解 (或 Nash平衡结局 )的关系 ,给出了解的一致性分析。经过模拟分析验证了模型与方法的可行性 ,为综合效能风险决策提供了实用而有效的决策方法     

绿色再制造管理层次网络分析模型及应用

绿色再制造管理是对产品再制造加工各个环节进行管理的有效模式。针对目前绿色再制造实施过程环节多,影响因素复杂,再制造实施缺乏系统研究的现状,分析了绿色再制造战略实施的影响因素和控制要素,提出了一种集成绿色再制造各个环节的层次网络分析模型。基于ANP分析理论,用实例说明了采用ANP法进行绿色再制造管理战略决策的过程。     

A hierarchical multiple criteria model for eliciting relative preferences in conflict situations

A multiple criteria decision analysis(MCDA) approach is designed for capturing the relative preference information of a decision maker involved in a conflict.More specifically,an MCDA approach based on the outranking method,ELECTRE III,is employed for ranking states or possible scenarios in the conflict from most to least preferred,where ties are allowed,for a decision maker according to his or her value system.To demonstrate how this preference elicitation methodology can be conveniently implemented in practice within the framework of the Graph Model for Conflict Resolution,it is applied to a real world water supply crisis which occurred in the town of North Battleford,located in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan.