Speciation along environmental gradients

Traditional discussions of speciation are based on geographical patterns of species ranges. In allopatric speciation, long-term geographical isolation generates reproductively isolated and spatially segregated descendant species. In the absence of geographical barriers, diversification is hindered by gene flow. Yet a growing body of phylogenetic and experimental data suggests that closely related species often occur in sympatry or have adjacent ranges in regions over which environmental changes are gradual and do not prevent gene flow. Theory has identified a variety of evolutionary processes that can result in speciation under sympatric conditions, with some recent advances concentrating on the phenomenon of evolutionary branching. Here we establish a link between geographical patterns and ecological processes of speciation by studying evolutionary branching in spatially structured populations. We show that along an environmental gradient, evolutionary branching can occur much more easily than in non-spatial models. This facilitation is most pronounced for gradients of intermediate slope. Moreover, spatial evolutionary branching readily generates patterns of spatial segregation and abutment between the emerging species. Our results highlight the importance of local processes of adaptive divergence for geographical patterns of speciation, and caution against pitfalls of inferring past speciation processes from present biogeographical patterns.     

Pressure gradient evolution in the near-Earth magnetotail at the arrival of BBFs

Using in situ observations from THEMIS A, D and E during the 2008-2011 tail season, we present a statistical study of the evolution of pressure gradients in the near-Earth tail during bursty bulk flow （BBF） convection. We identified 138 substorm BBFs and 2,197 non-substorm BBFs for this study. We found that both the pressure and the Bz component of the magnetic field were enhanced at the arrival of BBFs at the spacecraft locations. We suggest that the increase of Bz during non-substorm BBFs is associated with flux pile-up. However, the much stronger enhancement of Bz during substorm BBFs implies the occurrence of magnetic field dipolarization which is caused by both the flux pile-up process and near-Earth current disruption. Furthermore, a bow-wave-like high pressure appears to be formed at the arrival of substorm BBFs, which is responsible for the formation of region-1-sense FACs. The azimuthal pressure gradient associated with the arrival of substorm BBFs lasts for about 5 min. The enhanced pressure gradient associated with the bow wave is caused by the braking and diversion of the Earthward flow in the inner plasma sheet. The results from this statistical study suggest that the braking and azimuthal diversion of BBFs may commonly create azimuthal pressure gradients, which are related to the forrnation of the FAC of the substorm current wedge.     

Effects of tectonic stress field and Poisson’s ratio on stress state within the San Andreas Fault zone

We used a mechanics conceptual model to provide another perspective to understand the mechanical environment of the San Andreas Fault(SAF),and a possible mechanism that the principal stress state in the SAF is not only affected by remote tectonic stress but also by Poisson’s ratio.For a strike-slip fault like the SAF,we found that in the fault zone with Poisson’s ratio of[0.25,effective friction coefficient and the stress ratio(minimum principal stress/maximum principal stress)are less than 0.1and 0.8–1.0,respectively,corresponding to remote tectonic stress ratio of 0.36–1.0,and that the higher the Poisson’s ratio,the greater the principal stress rotates.For hydrostatic pore pressure and a received tectonic stress ratio of 0.5around the SAF,the model predicts that the SAF has a very high Poisson’s ratio(*0.45),which accommodates extremely low effective friction coefficient(0.09)and large stress ratio(0.84)or smaller shear stress(17 MPa).     

轴瓦合金层应力的有限元分析

建立了合金屋、钢背和轴承座的三层圆筒模型,利用ANSYS软件对轴瓦应力,尤其是合金层应力进行了计算,计算过程中考虑应力沿合金厚度方向的变化,结果显示,轴瓦周向应力分布取决于油膜压力的梯度,最大拉应力位于压力梯度最大处,而周向压应力的峰值则位于压力梯度方向改变处,径向应力的分布与滑膜压力的分布相同,压应力存在于油膜压力区域,径向应力与周向应力的最大值位于轴瓦合金层内表面,剪应力存在于压力峰值周围,并有一个转向过程,且剪应力的峰值位于轴瓦中截面合金层与钢背的结合处,理论计算证实,轴瓦合金层愈薄,疲劳强度愈高。     

基于电子邮件网络的人类动力学

研究了国内某高校电子邮件网络所反映的该高校人员收发电子邮件的行为规律.结果表明，已有的2种人类动力学模型——优先级队列模型和连贯非齐次泊松过程模型均不能较好地刻画该电子邮件网络的动力学行为.鉴于优先级队列模型对用户间统一行为模式的假设并不成立，连贯非齐次泊松过程也不能体现个体行为的无规则间断和动态演变特性，提出了基于时间序列聚类分析的分段连贯非齐次泊松过程模型，得到了较好的预测效果.     

随机意义下的古诺模型

把经济学中的古诺模型推广为随机需求———总需求为一个齐次Poisson过程 ,进而由需求函数构造随机价格 ,最后利用期望的概念给出了利润最大化的条件、厂商的反应函数和均衡解。而且还给出了厂商达到均衡的时间。     

一种新的多因素压裂水平井产能评价方法

水平井压裂是致密砂岩气井重要的开发手段,且裂缝之间存在干扰,渗流规律复杂,因此准确的产能预测尤为重要。本文研究在充分考虑气-水两相流在地层和裂缝中不同渗流规律及裂缝间相互干扰,并同时考虑在滑脱效应、启动压力梯度、应力敏感和高速非达西等因素条件下,建立了强适用性的压裂水平井气-水同产产能预测模型。此外,还对气-水两相流中地层应力敏感、气体滑脱因子、启动压力梯度、裂缝各项参数及水气比等因素进行了分析,结果表明：水气比、裂缝导流能力和裂缝半长与产能呈正相关;裂缝应力敏感与产能呈负相关;地层压力敏感、气体滑脱效应和启动压力梯度对产能影响相对较小。研究结果为致密砂岩压裂水平井产能评价提供了理论依据。     

压力容器接管区裂纹尖端应力强度因子的测定

针对压力容器接管区处于高应变梯度区的特征,用与压力容器接管的应变分布相类似的异形板来模拟接管,对不同孔径的异形板进行应力应变场的光弹性分析,给出高应变梯度区的应力分布状态,同时利用权函数理论,对裂纹尖端附近的应力强度因子进行测定,为裂纹疲劳扩展分析提供依据     

伽马-滤过复合Poisson过程模型结构可靠性分析

讨论结构在设计基准期[0,T]内应力变动规律,考虑应力为滤过复合Poisson过程、强度服从伽马分布的半随机过程模型,给出应力随机过程的样本函数的最大值分布,并获得其相应的模型结构可靠性设计与估计.     

考虑启动压力梯度的低渗透油藏污染井压裂增产新模型

根据单一启动压力梯度的低渗透油藏直井产能公式,分别考虑污染区与未污染区压裂后的渗透率和相应的启动压力梯度变化,建立分区考虑启动压力梯度的低渗透油藏污染井压裂增产新模型。结果表明:污染区内外的启动压力梯度差别较大,考虑污染区内外不同启动压力梯度的低渗透油藏污染井产能预测模型更符合实际情况;考虑污染区内外不同启动压力梯度所计算的产能比没有考虑启动压力梯度的产能要小得多,对于压裂井,启动压力梯度的影响较小。     

Spatial and Temporal Response of Equatorial Ionization Anomaly to the 17 March 2015 Storm from Global Ionosphere Map

The responses of Equatorial Ionosphere Anomaly (EIA) to the storm occurred on 17 March 2015 were studied using Global Ionosphere Map (GIM). The variations of Total Electron Content (TEC), latitudinal TEC gradients and the rate of latitudinal TEC gradients in EIA regions were investigated in 75°E, 110°E and -60°E longitudinal sectors. The results from the GIM data showed that the distributions of the latitudinal gradient of TEC became monotonous in three longitudes on 18 March (the first day of the recovery phase), but the variations were different. On 18 March, the magnitudes of latitudinal gradients decreased in spatial and temporal in 75°E and 110°E, which means the EIA was suppressed during the recovery phase of the storm, especially in 110°E. The magnitudes of latitudinal TEC gradients showed an obvious increase in spatial and temporal in -60°E. The SAMI2 reproduced the suppression of EIA with a disturbance dynamo electric field, which indicated that the physical process controlled the behaviors of the plasma during the recovery phase of the storm.     

基于ESDA的省域旅游综合竞争力的区域差异空间分析

基于统计软件SPSS13．0,采用多指标综合评价的主成分分析法,对中国大陆31个省、市、区旅游综合竞争力进行了综合评价;在GeoDA,Arcview等空间统计分析软件的支持下,利用ESDA全局和局部空间自相关理论,探测了省域旅游综合竞争力空间自相关和空间异质性．结果表明：各省市旅游综合竞争力的空间分布表现出相似的观测值趋于空间集聚;较强旅游综合竞争力的邻接省域趋于空间聚集,并主要集中在以上海为核心的长江三角洲地区及东部沿海地区;旅游综合竞争力较弱的邻接省域则主要集中在西北内陆省区;四川省是一个旅游综合竞争力显著高值被低值包围的区域．     

簇生点过程模型及其破产概率

本文讨论多车辆相撞的汽车保险的理赔问题。将经典的复合泊松过程模型推广，建立起簇生点过程模型，并求得了在（0，t]内理赔额的均值和方差以及其破产概率的扩散近似，同时基于鞅理论证明了新模型下的Lundberg不等式．     

珍贵乡土树种与桉树混交对生态系统生物量和碳储量的影响

阐明珍贵乡土树种与桉树混交对生态系统生物量和碳储量的影响是精准评估人工林碳源/汇性质和提升人工林质量的重要基础。本研究以6年生的桉树纯林(EP)、桉树×红锥混交林(MEC)、桉树×望天树混交林(MEP)为对象,探讨珍贵乡土树种与桉树混交对生态系统生物量和碳储量的影响及作用机制。结果表明,EP、MEC、MEP的生态系统生物量和碳储量分别是135.78,154.75,155.24t/hm~2和197.89,225.45,227.37t/hm~2。方差分析表明,珍贵乡土树种红锥和望天树与桉树混交显著提高了人工林生态系统的生物量和碳储量,混交林生态系统生物量比纯林提高13.97%—14.33%,而碳储量比纯林提高13.93%—14.89%。说明红锥和望天树与桉树混交属于促进(Facilitation)或竞争减弱(Competitive reduction)的种间相互作用关系,种间竞争小于种内竞争,资源的有效性和利用率提高,因而促进林分生态系统生物量和碳储量的提高。红锥和望天树与桉树混交可以实现桉树木材生产与其他生态服务的平衡,是一种较好的经营模式。     

结构应力S（t）的复合Poisson更新过程模型

讨论结构在设计基准期［０，Ｔ］内应力出现的规律。考虑应力出现时间间隔是一串独立同服从Ｐｏｉｓｓｏｎ分布的随机变量序列，建立Ｐｏｉｓｓｏｎ更新过程模型，获得结构应力在设计基准期［０，Ｔ］内的最大值概率分布以及结构可靠度和结构当量正态设计表达式。     

某PC单箱三室箱梁温度梯度效应研究

以某高速铁路单箱三室箱梁桥为背景,通过对国内外几种典型的温度梯度及不同的温度梯度在相同的温度特征值下的温度效应进行比较,重点分析了在不同的温度梯度下箱梁的温度应力及位移的变化规律.结果表明:纵向位移最大值在箱梁两端,呈线性变化,竖向位移最大值处于中跨跨中,呈抛物线变化;应力与位移的关系表现为下缘应力与位移呈对应关系,下缘应力大对应的位移也大;温度梯度将会引起很大的温度应力,且不同的温度梯度引起的应力和位移相差较大.因此,在设计时选择合理的温度梯度是非常重要的.     

区域创新下地方政府竞争压力对包容性绿色增长的空间效应研究

本研究采用熵权-TOPSIS法测算了中国2009~2019年省级行政区的包容性绿色增长指数,研究了地方政府竞争压力对包容性绿色增长的影响及传导机制,建立包含区域创新的中介效应模型,并利用空间滞后模型对地方政府竞争压力影响的空间效应进行检验,结果表明：地方政府竞争压力对包容性绿色增长的抑制作用会通过区域创新的渠道传递;在地方政府竞争压力影响下,包容性绿色增长存在负向空间溢出效应,区域创新的中介作用会增加这种负向溢出;虽然政府竞争压力影响只持续2年,但包容性绿色增长的负向溢出效应持续存在。本研究有助于厘清地方政府竞争压力、区域创新和包容性绿色增长三者之间的关系,为推动区域创新,实现可持续发展提供了重要的理论价值。     

岸线形态与近岸底泥元素分布特征的相关性分析

【目的】岸线形态影响近岸水体的水动力状况、沉积过程、微生境及植被特征,对近岸沉积物的物理与化学特征有直接影响,研究其与近岸底泥元素空间分布的相互关系,用以指导滨岸带的生态修复。【方法】以太湖北部贡湖湾退圩还湖修复项目区为研究对象,分别在项目区选取凹形、凸形和平直形3种岸线形态,按浅滩区、浅水区和深水区3个水深梯度采集样品,分析了不同微生境条件下底泥的粒级结构特征和总磷(TP)、总氮(TN)、有机碳(OC)的含量。【结果】①凹形、凸形岸线形态段不同水深梯度带间底泥粒级结构的差异均较大,而平直岸线段底泥粒级结构在水深梯度上的变化幅度相对较小,且不同岸线形态段间随水深的变化趋势不同,近岸底泥平均粒径在凸形岸线段随水深增加而增加,在凹形岸线段随水深增加而下降; ②滨岸带近岸表层底泥中TN、TP、OC含量在凹形、凸形岸线形态段随水深的变化总体上大于平直岸线段,凹形和凸形岸线段近岸深水区TN、有机碳含量最高,TP在凸岸线段浅水区最低; ③冗余分析发现,岸线形态与植被状况(植被类型、水深、植被盖度)是影响近岸底泥中TN、TP和有机碳含量的主要影响因子,而底泥的粒级结构特征与底泥中TN、TP和OC含量的相关性相对较小。【结论】与平直岸线相比,相对曲折的岸线形态更有利于增加不同水深梯度带底泥的异质性,对底泥元素的空间分布格局有显著影响。在湖滨带生态修复时,通过构建相对曲折的岸线形态,可有效促进不同水深底泥TN、TP、有机碳的再分配。     

基于族效应的波浪和砰击诱导应力的随机组合

为了考查砰击的族效应对波浪和砰击诱导组合应力极值的影响，定义了泊松砰击族过程。利用Hansen的结果，确定平均族间距以及砰击族发生率。当确定了相继两族砰击之间的组合极值后，可按传统的泊松砰击模型确定组合极值。数值分析表明，对于弱阻尼结构，考虑族效应会导致组合极值升高；对于强阻尼结构，考虑族效应会导致组合极值下降。     

致密砂岩油藏拟稳态流动产能分析

同时考虑应力敏感与启动压力梯度的影响,推导出拟稳态流动阶段致密砂岩油井产能公式;并在研究井底脱气基础上,对产能方程进行了修正。实例计算结果表明:在相同的生产压差下,生产井产能向压力轴弯曲,产能低于常规Vogel方程;且应力敏感系数越大,产能曲线弯曲度越大。当井底存在脱气现象时,油井存在一个极限生产压差,并当极限生产压差低于实际生产压差时,油井产量随着生产压差增大反而下降;应力敏感系数越大,产能曲线弯曲越早且弯曲度越大,极限生产压差减小。受到启动压力梯度影响,生产井极限生产压差变大,而受到应力敏感效应影响,极限生产压差减小。在实际生产过程中需要合理优化生产压差。地层压力下降后,生产井受到应力敏感效应影响减弱,受到启动压力梯度影响增强。