Estimating the changing population of the 'oldest old'

The population of England and Wales is becoming older. This poses an increasing demand for detailed data on the size an trends of the population at the oldes ages. Using the recently released Offic for National Statistics estimates of th population aged 90 and over in England and Wales, this article shows trends in the population of the oldest old and demographic causes of the rapid increase in centenarians during the twentieth century. It also presents further validation of the ON estimates of the oldest old with estimat from other data sources.     

The demographic characteristics of the oldest old in the United Kingdom

Those aged 85 and over (the oldest old) are the fastest growing age group in the population of many developed countries. However it is still uncommon to find statistics and analysis of this age group in current reporting. This article draws together demographic characteristics of people aged 85 and over from various different national data sources to provide an up-to-date picture of the oldest old.     

The demographic characteristics and economic activity patterns of carers over 50: evidence from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing

Studies on informal care provision have often focused on the provision of care for persons with a long term physical or mental ill-health or disability, or problems related to old age. However, the provision of care and support more broadly, for example in the form of childcare for grandchildren, can also impact on various aspects of a carer's life, such as their employment (if under the state retirement age), lifetime earnings and, by extension, pension income in later life. This article uses data from Wave 3 of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA) to explore the demographic characteristics, caring patterns, health status and economic activity patterns of carers aged over 50 in England. The results suggest that the nature of care provision differs across age groups, and that caring can be quite a different experience for older men and women. This article also sheds light on the characteristics of 'round-the-clock' carers, a relatively under-researched group which makes up just over one fifth of all carers aged 50 and over.     

基于多普勒频率变化率的无源定位算法研究

针对新型无源探测系统的要求,在原有多普勒频率变化率无源定位算法的基础上,为提高定位精度和收敛速度,提出了增加多普勒频率作为观测量,同时引入EKF算法对原始定位结果进行了处理。计算机仿真结果表明,改进后的算法能够满足新型无源探测系统的技术要求。     

Fragmented life courses: the changing profile of Britain's ethnic populations

This article describes the potential of the Longitudinal Study to analyse different ethnic groups by broad period of entry. This is illustrated with the use of one variable (childlessness), but could be the basis for further analytical work on other variables. Each group has a unique demographic profile, which is largely explained by its migration history. Migration influences important life course transitions. Differences between more established residents (present in 1981 and 1991) and less established residents (present in 1991 only) imply that generalisations for the entire ethnic group or future generations should not be made.     

The changing demography of mid-life, from the 1980s to the 2000s

This article examines changes between 1984 and 2007 in the demographic and socio-economic circumstances of British men and women in mid-life. Changing living arrangements in mid-life reflect historical changes in the occurrence and timing of life events such as marriage and parenthood, as well as increased longevity. In order to place mid-life in this wider demographic context, the article first reviews changes over time in kin availability across the adult life course using the British Household Panel Survey (2001) and Understanding Society (2009). The article goes on to use data from the General Household Survey (1984-2007) to document shifts over time in living arrangements for those aged 20- 79. In the final part of the article we focus specifically on those aged between 45 and 64 and examine how their characteristics in terms of marital status, educational attainment, activity status and housing tenure have changed over the past quarter century.     

Use of Systems Methodologies in the UK and Spain: A Sample Survey

The emergence and the use of the so-called Management Sciences Methodologies has been one of the major recent developments in the field of Management Practice. The issues of the cultural dimensions of a particular country and its relevance in managerial practices have attracted substantial attention over recent years. This paper attempts to compare the usage of management sciences methods from the Hard and Soft spectrum in two countries that have quite distinctive managerial and cultural traditions: the UK and Spain. It reports on the results of a mail questionnaire administered to MBA graduates working in management consultancy in both countries.     

耕地结构性质量变化模式研究

耕地保护是关系到我国经济和社会可持续发展的全局性战略问题，在我国，由于耕地数量减少而导致的耕地质量损失是十分严重的。以江苏省为例，采用耕地产出模型，由分区域的耕地基本产量计算得出区域综合平均基本产量，从而定量揭示该省13个城市耕地数量的动态变化所导致的耕地结构性质量变化程度，以期为政府部门的决策提供参考。     

An international comparative study on the use of the Cohort Component Method for estimating national populations

This comparative study explores the use of the Cohort Component Method (CCM) to produce national level population estimates. This method is used annually to calculate mid-year population estimates for England and Wales by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). Initially the article considers recent population change in England and Wales, with particular emphasis on the growing importance and challenges faced by migration estimation. Comparisons are then made between how population estimates are produced in England and Wales and other countries, with a particular focus on differences in the way the CCM is applied. Recent changes in methods used to estimate population are then reviewed along with a discussion of alternative approaches such as those described in academic literature.     

Analysis of the diversity of population and convergence of genetic algorithms based on Negentropy

1.INTRODUCTION Thediversityandconvergenceofgeneticalgorithms havegainedmoreattentionbymanyspecialistsinre centyears,althoughGAhasbeenwidelyusedin manyfieldsandobtainedsomesuccess,therestill isn’tasetofcompletetheorytoexplaintheprinciple ofGA,tosomeextent,itsdevelopmentisrestricted, evenmakingsomeonedoubtfulaboutit. Holland’smodeltheoremisthemaintheoryof GA,butitjustdisclosestheaveragechangeinthe evolutionarypopulation,notsuggestinganyinforma tionofindividualdistributionwithintheevo…     

软件工程视域下的软件复杂性研究

从软件工程的视角对软件复杂性进行了初步研究,讨论了软件复杂性的基本定义,分析了软件复杂性产生的原因及软件度量方法,最后提出了未来适应软件复杂性的几种技术解决方案.     

企业以往绩效对企业纵向一体化程度的影响

选取2005～2010年的制造业上市公司为研究样本,通过分位数回归方法初步探讨了企业以往绩效与其纵向一体化程度的关系。结果表明,企业以往绩效对企业纵向一体化程度有显著的正向影响,即以往绩效越高,企业的纵向一体化程度也越高。同时在实证研究中,我们也发现企业规模和企业可用资源也在不同的程度上影响着企业纵向一体化,其中企业规模与纵向一体化程度负相关,而企业可用资源与纵向一体化程度正相关。     

The State of the State: Introduction

Systemic Practice and Action Research -     

Hubbert曲线系统动力学模型预测能力分析——以美国石油产量数据为例

Hubbert曲线的研究方法逐渐成为能源供给问题研究的热点,Hubbert曲线的系统动力学模型建立了动态模拟平台,讨论中国石油产量高峰和高峰年份,但对模型的预测能力并未进行检验.针对经典Hubbert曲线采用的1960年之前美国48州石油产量数据,预测1961～2006年美国石油年产量,并与经典模型、实际石油产量进行比较和检验,给出线形回归和离差平方和的检验结果.结果表明Hubbert曲线的系统动力学模型对石油最终可采储量的取值比较敏感,如果最终可采储量选取适宜则可以给出比较接近实际产量的预测结果.     

最小报价单位对我国股票市场流动性影响--基于高频数据的实证研究

最小报价单位是影响证券市场流动性的重要因素之一。利用上海证券交易所分笔交易数据，从价差、深度以及交易金额三个方面考察了最小报价单位对股票市场流动性的影响。实证结果表明，从总体上看．最小报价单位的变化将导致股票市场平均价差、深度和交易金额同向变化。按照股价大小将股票分组后发现：最小报价单位增加将导致低价股的价差和深度变大，交易金额减少；最小报价单位增大对高价股的价差没有显著影响，但会增大深度和交易金额，从而改善高价股的流动性。最后刺用“分改厘”后基金流动性的变化验证所得结论。     

The Nonprofit Response to the Migration Crisis: Systems-Theoretic Reflections on the Austrian and Slovak Experiences

The present paper discusses the response of the Austrian and Slovak nonprofits to the recent migration crisis. In both countries, nonprofits delivered crucial problem-solving contributions but faced serious challenges related to scaling up, capacity building, and improving coordination. Drawing on the Luhmannian systems-theoretic approach, the paper argues that these challenges gave a boost to the systemic identity of nonprofits. Triggered by the substantial inflows of public money, the systemic identity explains why nonprofits can successfully operate in the polarized societal environment and develop unique expertise which is valuable to the public sector. At the same time, the systemic identity lowers the responsiveness of nonprofits to the societal environment. The major policy implication is that this responsiveness has to be continually improved through rational discourses and stakeholder dialogues.     

"全球化"的复杂性反思

全球化是一个动态的、内在地充满矛盾的过程，它包含着使我们人类既有可能发展，也有可能退化的普遍复杂性和矛盾；它只有通过对世界各个民族、国家和地区经济、政治、化的互相适应、互相趋同，通过对一系列矛盾的协调和消解才能顺利实现。中国对经济全球化要采取理智实在的态度，要对“接轨”和“赶超战略”等重大战略问题进行总体反思，以真正做到从国情出发、自主地制定和实施现代化战略；当然这也不排斥向任何一种值得借鉴的发展模式学习；更为重要的是，在当今复杂多变的时代情势下，无论是进行独立选择还是借鉴学习，都应该是一个及时更新的动态过程，是一个不断探索的过程。     

The theory of the firm: An epistemological analysis

Is the theory of the firm equipped to answer questions about contemporary society? By a systemic examination of the nature of laws and facts assumed in the theory of the firm, we find that while the theory of the firm has found its Descartes and its Hume, it is not yet clear whether it has found its Kant. We speculate that a pragmatism-inspired theory of the firm, which incorporates the science of ethical management, is needed for the theory to become relevant for contemporary society.