The UK population: how does it compare?

This is the fourth demographic report for the UK, providing an overview of the latest statistics on the population. This year's article compares the UK with other European countries and a range of nations from around the world. Statistical comparisons are made for fertility, mortality, ageing, migration and population density. The UK has an ageing population, but one that is not ageing as rapidly as some other countries such as Germany, Italy and Japan. Although life expectation in the UK is improving in line with most western European countries, relatively high levels of fertility ensure that the proportion of the population that is young remains high. Around one in ten residents of the UK are foreign born, a lower proportion than many developed countries. UK population density has increased steadily and is the fourth highest in the EU.     

Estimates of true birth order for Scotland, 1945-1999

Over the last three decades fertility in Scotland, as measured by the total fertility rate (TFR), has moved from being higher than in England and Wales, to being lower. The annual number of births in Scotland has declined so that in the mid-1990s low fertility became the main driver of the overall population decline that Scotland has been experiencing since 1974. Analysis of fertility by birth order is instrumental in gaining an understanding of past and future fertility trends. Until the rise in births outside marriage in the 1980s data from registration could be used as a proxy for true birth order. However, because birth order is not collected for births outside marriage true birth order now has to be estimated. This article presents the first official estimates of true birth order for Scotland. The construction of these estimates based on a modified version of the method used for England and Wales is discussed. This article also presents analysis relating births by true birth order estimate to the population of women by parity on a cohort basis, and makes comparisons with England and Wales.     

Variant population projections for the United Kingdom and its constituent countries

Interest has been growing steadily in understanding the impact of the inherent uncertainty in the national population projections. As a result, the Government Acturay's Department has recently produced the most extensive set of official variant projections ever published in the United Kingdom. These include 'standard' variants based on alternative high and low assumptions for future fertility, life expectancy and net migration and also a number of 'special case scenarios.' All of these variants have been produced at both UK and individual country level. This article describes the full range of variant projections available from the 2000-based national projections and summaries some of the key results for both the UK and the individual countries.     

Fertility assumptions for the 2006-based national population projections

Fertility is one of the key components of the national population projections, alongside mortality and migration. For the 2006-based population projections, long-term completed family size in the U.K. is assumed to be 1.84 children per woman. This represents an increase of 0.10 on the assumption of 1.74 children per woman used in the 2004-based round. Although the U.K's long-term fertilit assumption has been lowered several time in recent years, this is the first time it has been raised since the 1960s baby boom. This article outlines why ONS decided to raise the long-term fertility assumptio for all four U.K. countries in the 2006-based population projections     

Immigration, emigration and the ageing of the overseas-born population in the United Kingdom

This article uses data from the 1971 and 2001 Censuses, the 1999-2003 Labour Force Survey and the 1977 to 2002 International Passenger Survey to investigate the migration processes contributing to the age structure and ageing of the UK's overseas-born population. Overall almost half of recent decades' immigrants to the UK emigrate again within five years of arrival, but with large variation by overseas country of birth. Between half and two thirds of the immigrants born in the continental European Union, North America and Oceania emigrate again within five years, while 15 per cent of those born in the Indian subcontinent do so. Significant cumulative emigration more than five years after arrival is seen among earlier immigrants from the Indian subcontinent, the Caribbean Commonwealth and Europe. Large country-of-origin variations in the ratio of pension-age population to working-age population primarily reflect the country composition of immigration streams 30 or more years before.     

Fifty years of United Kingdom national population projections: how accurate have they been?

This article considers the accuracy of the official national population projections made for the UK over the last fifty years The findings take account of the revision to population estimates following the 2001 Census and are largely similar to the findings of a previous review carried out after the 1991 Census. The total population has been projected reasonably accurately but this is largely a chance result of compensating errors in the assumptions of fertility, mortality and net migration. The largest differences between projected and actual populations are for the very young and the very old, while projections of the working age population have been comparatively accurate. Fertility and mortality errors have reduced in more recent projections, while migration errors have grown. However, this may simply reflect the volatility or stability of the respective time-series at the time the projections are made. Changes in estimates of the past and current size of the population (highlighted by the revisions made to population estimates following the 2001 Census) are also shown to play a part in explaining projection error.     

Assumptions for the 2000-based national population projections

This article summarises the long-term assumptions of fertility, mortality and net migration which will underlie the forthcoming 2000-based national population projections. Compared with the current (1998-based) projections, the new projections will assume lower levels of fertility, but higher levels of inward net migration. There will be relatively little change to mortality assumptions. Results of the new projections will be available on 15 November 2001.     

The demographic situation in the European Union

This article is an update of a similar article published in Population Trends 104 and complements the article on European-wide issues in population statistics, published in Population Trends 118. The main areas of demography are covered, namely population change, population composition, fertility and mortality. Eurostat are currently working on a new set of population projections which should be available shortly, but were not completed when this article was drafted.     

2006-based national population projections for the U.K. and constituent countries

The 2006-based national population projections, carried out by the Office for National Statistics in consultation with the devolved administrations, show the population of the UK rising from 60.6 million in 2006, passing 65 million in 2016 and 70 million in 2028, to reach 71.1 million by 2031. In the longer-term, the projections suggest that the population will continue rising beyond 2031 for the full length of the projection period. The population will become older with the median age expected to rise from 39.0 years in 2006 to 41.8 years by 2031. Since the last projection round legislation has been passed to increase the state pension age from 65 to 66 for both sexes between 2024 and 2026. Despite this change, the number of people of working age for every person of state pensionable age will reduce from 3.32 in 2006 to 2.91 by 2031. The legislation includes further increases in the state pension age to 68 for both sexes by 2046.     

Intergenerational replacement and migration in the countries and regions of the United Kingdom, 1971-2009

This article uses a recently proposed measure, the overall replacement ratio or ORR, to assess the extent to which migration alters intergenerational replacement within the United Kingdom. The UK as a whole can be seen to experience 'replacement migration' as immigration compensates for fertility below the replacement level. However, the article shows that the impact of migration differs radically in the different regions of the country. South East England experiences very substantial immigration from both the rest of the UK and overseas, far more than is needed for intergenerational replacement, whereas most of the rest of the UK sees little or no net immigration and the ORR remains below the replacement level.     

Methodology used for producing ONS's small area population estimates

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has set up a project to investigate the feasibility of producing postcensal small area population estimates on a nationally consistent basis for England and Wales. Following on from earlier investigations to identify potential data sources and methods, ward and Super Output Area population estimates have been released as 'experimental statistics'. This article covers the methodology used to produce these estimates, feedback from user consultation with the initial estimates released at ward level, summary statistics on the population estimates for mid-2001 to mid-2003, and future developments for small area population estimates.     

UK national population projections in perspective: how successful compared to those in other European countries?

Compared to population forecasts of other European countries, those made in the United Kingdom during the past 30 years had somewhat larger forecast errors for fertility and smaller errors for mortality. Migration forecasts in the UK were about as accurate as the European average. After controlling for various effects such as relative data volatility both at the time a projection is made and during the period of the projection, there is no indication that recent forecasts in European countries have been more accurate than older ones. Hence population forecasts are intrinsically uncertain, and a forecast for the UK in the form of probability distributions is presented.     

The Impact of Population Aging on Housing Demand in China Based on System Dynamics

In recent years, the proportion of China's elderly population is gradually increasing, and the real estate market is changing dramatically. Consequently the impact of population aging on housing demand has become increasingly prominent. On the theoretical basis of the relationship between population aging, family structure and housing demand, this paper firstly constructs a system dynamics model of the impact of population aging and family structure on housing demand in China. Then,the model is simulated, and several scenarios of population, family structure, and real estate policies are set up. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: China's population will rise at first and then decrease, reaching a peak of 1.401 billion by 2023. As the proportion of elderly population increases, the degree of population aging is becoming increasingly serious. The size of the family will gradually shrink to 2.39 people per household in 2050. The housing demand will increase first and then decrease. Through the results of scenario simulation, this paper puts forward the following suggestion to effectively balance the housing demand in China: Completely relaxing family planning policies,imposing a real estate tax, canceling the pre-sale policy, and raising the loan rate.     

The feasibility of making short-term migration estimates

Short-term migration, that is stays of less than 12 months, has received particular attention recently from both national and local level users of population statistics. This interest is part of the wider interest shown in increasing levels of long-term migration statistics in recent years. This article is an initial assessment by ONS of the potential to produce short-term migration estimates for England and Wales, and the challenges faced in doing so. Central to these challenges is the question of how short-term migration should be defined. In addition, illustrative estimates of short-term migration based on the International Passenger Survey (IPS) are provided. These illustrative estimates, along with associated standard errors, are provided at both national and regional levels using a number of definitional bases.     

年度盈余报告的发布对市场微观结构的影响

应用实证研究方法，针对上海股票交易所这样一个指令驱动市场，研究了年度报告的发布对市场微观结构一买卖报价价差及其组成成分的影响。研究结果发现，中国股票市场年度报告的发布整体上对买卖报价价差本身没有显著影响，但对买卖报价价差的各个组成成分产生了显著影响。表明年度报告作为中国投资者重要的信息来源，其发布改变了信息在投资者之间的分布格局。     

基于合理膳食结构的2020-2050年我国食物用粮需求测算

测算我国未来粮食需求量是制定我国粮食安全相关政策措施的基础.目前我国城镇化水平加快,老龄化问题突出,完全二孩生育政策刚刚实施,正处于人口结构转型的关键期,而人口结构变动直接影响食物用粮需求.本文从满足居民营养健康标准的食物需求视角下,考虑人口年龄、性别和城乡结构,采用标准人消费系数法,测算了单独二孩政策、完全二孩政策和完全放开生育政策情景下2020-2050年我国食物用粮（包括口粮与饲料粮）的需求,并进行对比分析.结果表明：在完全二孩政策情景下,我国食物用粮需求将在2030年达到峰值39263.1万吨,比通常采用人均方法的计算结果低10061.0万吨;因城镇化率的提高将使2020、2030与2050年食物用粮需求分别增加约406.7万吨、1142.5万吨与1553.8万吨;生育政策调整所带来的人口规模与结构变化并不是2020-2050年我国粮食安全的主要影响因素.建议积极引导和鼓励生育,在适当时间进一步完全放开生育;同时采取有效措施将粮食损耗与浪费降到最低.     

Civil partnerships five years on

The Civil Partnership Act 2004, which came into force in December 2005 allowing same-sex couples in the UK to register their relationship for the first time, celebrated its fifth anniversary in December 2010. This article examines civil partnership in England and Wales, five years on from its introduction. The characteristics of those forming civil partnerships between 2005 and 2010 including age, sex and previous marital/civil partnership status are examined. These are then compared with the characteristics of those marrying over the same period. Further comparisons are also made between civil partnership dissolutions and divorce. The article presents estimates of the number of people currently in civil partnerships and children of civil partners. Finally the article examines attitudes towards same-sex and civil partner couples both in the UK and in other countries across Europe.