Inter-decadal variations,causes and future projection of the Asian summer monsoon

The present paper presents a concise summary of our recent studies on the Asian summer monsoon, with highting decadal and inter-decadal scales. The studies on the long-term variations of the Asian summer monsoon and its impacts on the change in the summer precipitation in China are reviewed. Moreover, recent changes in the Asian summer monsoon and summer precipitation in East Asia （including Meiyu precipitation） are discussed. Finally, the future changes of the Asian summer monsoon are also pointed out in this paper.     

The onset and advance of the Asian summer monsoon

The transition from the winter monsoon to summer monsoon is characterized by the abrupt change of the atmospheric circulation. Although many studies on the intraseasonal variation of the Asian summer monsoon (ASM) have been made, there are controversial v…     

ENSO对东亚夏季风和我国夏季降水的影响研究进展

回顾了最近几年我国学者在ENSO对东亚夏季风和我国夏季降水影响方面的研究成果,通过夏季风时降水的影响分析ENSO对夏季降水的作用,结合1997-1998年的ENSO现象,对前人的理论和统计结果进行了讨论,指出除了ENSO发生的时间、区域、强度外,其增长和衰减率在这一问题的研究中也值得关注。     

Effect of precession on the Asian summer monsoon evolution: A systematic review

Geological climatic records and model simulations on the Asian summer monsoon climate change induced by insolation forcing of the Earth＇s precession are systematically reviewed in this paper. The presentation of the questions on the mechanism of the Asian monsoon evolution at the precession band, currently existing debates and future research directions are discussed. Since the early 1980s, more and more observed evidence and simulated results, especially the absolute-dated stalagmite records and orbital-scale transient model runs in the last few years, have indicated that the quasi-20ka period in the Quaternary monsoon climate change is caused by precession. However, debates still exist on the dynamic mechanism how precession affects the Asian monsoon. The ＂zero phase＂ hypothesis says that the Asian monsoon is merely controlled by summer insolation in the Northern Hemisphere （NH） while the ＂latent heat＂ hypothesis emphasizes the dominant effect of latent heat transport from the Southern Hemisphere （SH） besides the role of the northern insolation. The two hypotheses have separately been supported by some evidence. Although we are cognizant of the importance of northern solar radiation and the remote effect of southern insolation, it has still a long way to go before comprehensively understanding the evolutionary mechanism of the Asian monsoon. In view of the problems existing in present researches of monsoon-dominated climate change at the precession scale, we propose that studies on the environmental significance of geological monsoon proxies, feedback processes in the long-term transient simulations and intercomparisons between observations and modeling results should be strengthened in the future.     

A 60 000-year loess-paleosol record of millennial-scale summer monsoon instability from Lanzhou, China

The 28-m high-resolution Shajinping loess section in Lanzhou on the Chinese western Loess Plateau records a detailed history of millennial Asian summer monsoon change since the earlier last glaciation. Summer monsoon proxies of soil magnetic susceptibility, carbonate content and soil color show that Asian summer monsoon experienced a series of rapid episodic pulse enhancements spanning only ca. 1-2 ka and have sub-Milankovitch cycles of progressive weakening in low frequency domain since ca. 60 kaBP. Soil formation responds to these by deepening colors, accumulating organic matter, increasing biological channels and leaching certain carbonates. The pedogenic degree generally increases with the degree of enhancement of summer monsoon. These may reflect the impact of the last glacial fast climatic change in the North Atlantic region on Asian summer monsoon.     

Natural interdecadal weakening of East Asian summer monsoon in the late 20th century

Based on the reanalysis data throughout 1948-2002 as derived from the United States National Centers for Environmental Prediction and National Center for Atmospheric Research, it is revealed that East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） intensity weakens on an interdecadal timescale since the mid-1960s, and twice interdecadal jumps are recorded in the EASM intensity index series in the late 20th century, respectively occurring in the mid-1960s and mid- to late 1970s. Six globally coupled atmosphere-ocean models＇ outputs under the SRES A2 greenhouse gas and aerosol emission scenario, provided by the IPCC Data Distribution Center and the Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research, are then systematically examined. It follows that the above EASM weakening is not closely related to synchro- nizing anthropogenic global warming, and, therefore, it should be qualitatively natural change process. Over the 21st century, the EASM intensity is likely increased slightly by continually intensified greenhouse effect relative to the late 20th century.     

Asian-Pacific Oscillation index and variation of East Asian summer monsoon over the past millennium

To study the long-term variation of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM）, the Asian-Pacific Oscillation index （IAPO）, representing a zonal thermal contrast between Asia and the North Pacific, is reconstructed over the past millennium. During the Little Ice Age （LIA）, the variability of the reconstructed IAPO is closely linked to dry-wet anomalies in eastern China on the centennial scale. This correlation pattern is consistent with the observation during the current period, which suggests that the reconstructed IAPO may generally represent the centennial-scale variation of the EASM and rainfall anomalies over eastern China during the LIA.     

锶同位素研究在古季风演化研究中的应用研究

自从Rb-Sr同位素体系被应用于地质年龄以来,随着Rb-Sr同位素地球化学理论和测试分析技术的逐步发展和完善,其应用越来越广泛。主要介绍了锶同位素的基本地球化学特征,分析了锶同位素研究进行全球对比的可能性,探讨了锶同位素研究在我国黄土季风演化研究中的应用。众多研究显示Rb/Sr和87Sr/86Sr的比值变化受控于风化成壤作用的强弱,与降雨量、磁化率变化有很好的线性相关关系。通过曲线的分析、对比发现Rb/Sr和87Sr/86Sr曲线所蕴含的气候信息比磁化率曲线更为丰富和详细,与SPECMAP     

Origin of summer monsoon rainfall identified by δ18O in precipitation

A negative correlation between δ^18O in monsoon precipitation and f, the ratio of precipitable water in monsoon region to that in water source area, is hypothesized. Using the Rayleigh model, a new method for identifying origin of summer monsoon rainfall is developed based on the hypothesis. In order to validate the method, the isotopic data at New Delhi, a typical station in the southwest monsoon region, and Hong Kong, a typical station in the southeast monsoon region, were collected and analyzed for case studies. The case studies indicate that the water source areas of the monsoon rairdall at the two stations identified by the method are accordant with the general atmosphere circulation patterns. The method developed in this paper is significantly important for tracing the origin of summer monsoon precipitation.     

Southern Hemisphere mean zonal wind in upper troposphere and East Asian summer monsoon circulation

1 Introduction Variability of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) has been detected by considering roles of El Nino and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle, snow cover over Eurasia and Tibetan Plateau, and signals from the soil (namely, the soil temperatur…     

Response of the East Asian summer monsoon to large volcanic eruptions during the last millennium

The responses of the East Asian summer monsoon （EASM） to large volcanic eruptions were analyzed using a millennial simulation with the FGOALS-gl climate system model. The model was driven by both natural （solar irradiance, volcanic eruptions） and anthro- pogenic （greenhouse gases, sulfate aerosols） forcing agents. The results showed cooling anomalies after large volcanic eruptions almost on a global scale. The cooling over the continental region is stronger than that over the ocean. The precipitation generally decreases in the tropical and subtropical regions in the first summer after large volcanic eruptions. Cooling with amplitudes up to -0.3 ℃ is seen over eastern China in the first summer after large volcanic eruptions. The East Asian continent is dominated by northeasterly wind anomalies and the corresponding summer rainfall exhibits a coherent reduction over the whole of eastern China. An analysis of the surface heat flux suggested the reduction in summer precipitation over eastern China can be attributed to a decrease of moisture vapor over the tropical oceans, and the weakening of the EASM may be attributed to the reduced land-sea thermal contrast after large volcanic eruptions.     

锶同位素研究在古季风演化研究中的应用研究

自从Rb—Sr同位素体系被应用于地质年龄以来，随着Rb—Sr同位素地球化学理论和测试分析技术的逐步发展和完善，其应用越来越广泛。主要介绍了锶同位素的基本地球化学特征，分析了锶同位素研究进行全球对比的可能性，探讨了锶同位素研究在我国黄土季风演化研究中的应用。众多研究显示Rb／Sr和^87Sr／^86Sr的比值变化受控于风化成壤作用的强弱，与降雨量、磁化率变化有很好的线性相关关系。通过曲线的分析、对比发现Rb／Sr和^87Sr／^86Sr曲线所蕴含的气候信息比磁化率曲线更为丰富和详细，与SPECMAP δ^18O曲线具有同步变化特征和更好的对应关系。这些研究表明Rb／Sr和^87Sr／^86Sr比值极可能是一种东亚夏季风演化更为灵敏的替代性指标，在古气候重建中有着广阔的应用前景。     

The spring soil moisture and the summer rainfall in eastern China

The relation between the soil moisture in spring and the rainfall in summer in eastern China is investi- gated. Results show that the summer rainfall in eastern China is closely related to the spring soil moisture in the area from North China to the lower reaches of Yangtze River (NCYR). When spring soil moisture anomalies over NCYR are positive, the summer precipitation exhibits positive anomalies in Northeast China and the lower reaches of Yangtze River, and negative anomalies in southern China and North China. The higher soil moisture over NCYR cools land surface and reduces the land-sea tem- perature gradient, which weakens East Asian summer monsoon. The western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH) is located to the south and shifts westward, resulting in more rainfall in the lower reaches of Yangtze River and less in southern China and North China.     

The strengthening East Asia summer monsoon since the early 1990s

Previous studies have documented a weakening tendency of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) since the end of the 1970s. In this study, we report that the EASM has been recovering since the early 1990s, although its strength is still less than in previous decades (averaged over the period 1965-1980). Following the recovery of the EASM, there has been a tendency in the last decade toward northward-moving rainbands and excessive rainfall in the Huaihe River valley (110°-120°E, 30°-35°N). There is evidence suggesting that the strengthening EASM since the early 1990s is linked to interdecadal change of land-sea thermal contrast.     

南亚夏季风爆发前后高度场温湿场的演变特征

利用诊断分析方法，研究南亚夏季风爆发前后高度场、温湿场的演变特征。结果发现夏季风的爆发与南亚高压、马斯克林高压、南美洲大陆上的高压以及巴哈马群岛附近海域上的高压密切相关。季风爆发前后，印度次大陆上高度场在垂直方向发生了反相变化，低层减弱，高层加强，这使得垂直对流发展加强。南亚夏季风爆发前后在印度次大陆及其西岸各层上湿度均急剧增大。表明随着南亚夏季风的爆发，全球温度场、高度场、湿度场都发生了重大调整，南亚夏季风的爆发是全球环流形势调整的一环。     

High-resolution multi-proxy records of Asian monsoon activities from terrestrial sediments over the last 75,000 years

Our research group have investigated chronology and sedimentology of terrestrial sediments including loess-paleosols sediments over the last 75 ka at Lanzhou, northwestern China, and over the last 45ka at Tokyo, central Japan. Based on chronology of high resolution dating of ESR, TL, and IRSL and tephrochronology in these sediments, we investigated to reconstruct activities of Asian summer and winter paleomonsoons by using magnetic susceptibility, color reflectance and eolian dust concentrations over the last 75ka. Relations between standard curves of delta ~(18)O in GISP2 and color reflectance in loess-paleosol sediments of Linxia over last 140 ka shows that color reflectances are good proxy records indicating Asian summer paleomonsoon activity in time and are closely related to standard curve of delta ~(18)O in GRIP since the last interglacial. Also, relations between standard curve of delta ~(18)O in GISP2 and eolian dust concentrations over the last 75 ka at Lanzhou shows the Asian winter paleomonsoon activities have coincided with climatic changes in North Atlantic by GISP2 ice cores, and suggests that response of winter monsoon was rapid in global cooling stages, but slow in warming stage. Other results of our research in terrestrial sediments show as follows; 1) Horizons of Heinrich events from H1 to H4 in loess-paleosol sequences at Lanzhou. 2) Magnetic susceptibility and MS frequency dependent are possible to be available as proxy records for pedogenesis of tile Kanto Loam in Japan. 3) 8.2ka cooling event was recognized in Holocene loess-paleosol sequences at Lanzhou.     

Global and China temperature changes associated with the inter-decadal variations of East Asian summer monsoon advances

The modern atmospheric observation and literatural historical drought-flood records were used to extract the inter-decadal signals of dry-wet modes in eastern China and reveal the possible relationship of global and China temperature changes associated with the East Asian summer monsoon advances.A climate pattern of wet-north and dry-south in eastern China and cool period in China and globe are associated with the strong summer monsoon that can advance further to the northernmost part in the East Asian monsoon region.On the contrary,a climate pattern of dry-north and wet-south in eastern China and a warm period in China and globe are associated with the weaker summer monsoon that only reaches the southern part in the region.An interdecadal oscillation with the timescale about 60 years was found dominating in both the dry-wet mode index series of the East Asian summer monsoon and the global temperature series after the secular climate states and long-term trend over inter-centennial timescales have been removed.     

Environmental and rock magnetic studies of rapid fluctuations of Asian summer monsoon during the last interglacial maximum (MIS 5e)

A systematic environmental rock magnetic study of a century-millennial scale loesspaleosol sequence of the last interglacial in the Jiuzhoutai well section, Lanzhou, on the western Loess Plateau demonstrates that Asian summer nonsoon experienced fast and large oscillations manifesting as three peaks and two valleys lasing about 1–2 ka. Valley 4 with a central age of 120.5 ka is the most evident, suggesting that summer monsoon was weakened nearly to a level in glaciations. This indicates that summer monsoon has a nature of instability in centurymillennial scale change in the last interglacial.     

Lag influences of winter circulation conditions in the tropical western Pacific on South Asian summer monsoon

<正>By means of monthly mean NCEP/NCAR data analyses, this note investigates the lag influences of winter circulation conditions in the tropical western Pacific on South Asian summer monsoon through the methods of composite, correlation and statistical confident test. The results indicate clearly that winter climate variations in the equatorial western Pacific would produce significant influences on the following South Asian summer monsoon, and with the lapse of time the lag influences show clearly moving northward and extending westward features. When winter positive (negative) sea level pressure anomalies occupy the equatorial western Pacific, there is an anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation anomaly appearing in the northwestern Pacific. With the lapse of time, the anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation anomaly gradually moves to northeast, and its axis in the west-east directions also stretches, therefore, easterly (westerly) anomalies in the south part of the anticyclonic (cyclonic) circulation anomaly continuously expand westward to the peninsula of India. Undoubtedly, the South Asian summer monsoon is weak (strong).     

Characteristics of decadal-centennial-scale changes in East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age and in the present day

Using meteorological observations, proxies of precipitation and temperature, and climate simulation outputs, we synthetically analyzed the regularities of decadal-centennial-scale changes in the summer thermal contrast between land and ocean and summer precipitation over the East Asian monsoon region during the past millennium; compared the basic characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and precipitation in the present day, the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP); and explored their links with solar irradiance and global climate change. The results indicate that over the last 150 years, the EASM circulation and precipitation, indicated by the temperature contrast between the East Asian mainland and adjacent oceans, had a significant decadal perturbation and have been weaker during the period of rapid global warming over the past 50 years. On the centennial time scale, the EASM in the MWP was strongest over the past 1000 years. Over the past 1000 years, the EASM was weakest in 1450-1570. When the EASM circulation was weaker, the monsoon rain belt over eastern China was generally located more southward, with there being less precipitation in North China and more precipitation in the Yangtze River valley; therefore, there was an anomalous pattern of southern flood/northern drought. From the 1900s to 1920s, precipitation had a pat- tern opposite to that of the southern flood/northern drought, with there being less precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and more precipitation in North China. Compared with the case for the MWP, there was a longer-time-scale southern flood/northern drought phenomenon in 1400-1600. Moreover, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not synchronously vary with the trend of global temperature. During the last 150 years, although the annual mean surface temperature around the world and in China has increased, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not have strengthening or weakening trends. Over the past 1000 years, the weakest EASM occurred ahead of the lowest Northern Hemispheric temperature and corresponded to the weakest solar irradiance.