过去两千年青藏高原百年尺度温度变化的时空格局

基于青藏高原过去2000 a高分辨率的温度代用序列, 通过区域对比以及集成分析方法, 深入分析青藏高原过去2000 a温度变化的时空特征。结果表明: 过去2000 a青藏高原温度变化可以划分为4个世纪尺度的冷暖时期, 即0—600 AD和1400—1900 AD的冷期、600—1400 AD和20世纪的暖期, 其中1400—1900 AD和600—1400 AD可能分别对应于欧洲的小冰期和中世纪暖期; 青藏高原过去2000 a温度变化存在很强的季节性特征, 年平均气温变化存在争议, 但夏季温度变化较为一致; 夏季温度记录表明20世纪升温并不是很显著, 中世纪暖期是过去2000 a中升温最显著且最温暖的时段。目前, 青藏高原过去2000 a古温度记录仍存在空白区域, 转换函数的选取、气候指标的季节性差异以及定年误差等因素都可能增加温度序列的不确定性。未来, 在青藏高原还需要重建更多高质量(高分辨率、有准确的年龄控制、明确的季节性以及精确的气候指示意义)的古温度记录, 以更深入地揭示青藏高原温度变化的时空格局及机制。     

Characteristics of decadal-centennial-scale changes in East Asian summer monsoon circulation and precipitation during the Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age and in the present day

Using meteorological observations, proxies of precipitation and temperature, and climate simulation outputs, we synthetically analyzed the regularities of decadal-centennial-scale changes in the summer thermal contrast between land and ocean and summer precipitation over the East Asian monsoon region during the past millennium; compared the basic characteristics of the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) circulation and precipitation in the present day, the Little Ice Age (LIA) and the Medieval Warm Period (MWP); and explored their links with solar irradiance and global climate change. The results indicate that over the last 150 years, the EASM circulation and precipitation, indicated by the temperature contrast between the East Asian mainland and adjacent oceans, had a significant decadal perturbation and have been weaker during the period of rapid global warming over the past 50 years. On the centennial time scale, the EASM in the MWP was strongest over the past 1000 years. Over the past 1000 years, the EASM was weakest in 1450-1570. When the EASM circulation was weaker, the monsoon rain belt over eastern China was generally located more southward, with there being less precipitation in North China and more precipitation in the Yangtze River valley; therefore, there was an anomalous pattern of southern flood/northern drought. From the 1900s to 1920s, precipitation had a pat- tern opposite to that of the southern flood/northern drought, with there being less precipitation in the Yangtze River valley and more precipitation in North China. Compared with the case for the MWP, there was a longer-time-scale southern flood/northern drought phenomenon in 1400-1600. Moreover, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not synchronously vary with the trend of global temperature. During the last 150 years, although the annual mean surface temperature around the world and in China has increased, the EASM circulation and precipitation did not have strengthening or weakening trends. Over the past 1000 years, the weakest EASM occurred ahead of the lowest Northern Hemispheric temperature and corresponded to the weakest solar irradiance.     

Reconstruction of temperature series of China for the last 1000 years

This paper reports a study on reconstructing temperature series for ten regions of China over the last 1000 years with a time resolution of 10 a. The regions concerned are: Northeast, North, East, South China, Taiwan, Central, Southwest, Northwest China, Xinjiang and Qinghai-Tibet Plateau. A variety of proxy data, such as ice core, tree-rings, stalagmites, peat, lake sediments, pollen and historical records, were validated with instrumental observations made in the last 120 years, and applied in the recon- struction of the temperature series. A temperature series for whole China is then established by aver- aging the ten regional series with a weighting proportional to the area of each region. Finally, tem- perature variations for the last 1000 years are examined, with special focus placed on the characteris- tics of the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), the Little Ice Age (LIA), and Modern Warming (MW).     

A comparison of the Medieval Warm Period, Little Ice Age and 20th century warming simulated by the FGOALS climate system model

To compare differences among the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), Little Ice Age (LIA), and 20th century global warming (20CW), six sets of transient and equilibrium simulations were generated using the climate system model FGOALS_gl. This model was developed by the State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences. The results indicate that MWP warming is evident on a global scale, except for at mid-l...     

中国中世纪暖期温度的时空变化特征

采用全球海气耦合模式ECHO-G的1000个模式年的长积分气候模拟方法分析了中国中世纪暖期温度的存在性与时空变化特征.结果表明：中国的中世纪暖期出现在公元1000—1250年间,但它不是一个持续稳定的暖期,而是存在峰谷起伏变化,其中最暖的30年（中世纪暖期鼎盛期）出现在1131—1160年.中世纪暖期中国的年平均和冬、夏季平均温度距平变幅西部最大,东部最小.其鼎盛期中国的温度距平相对于千年温度都是正值,中国东部的增温幅度由南向北逐渐加大,变幅为0.4℃—0.8℃,而中国西部的增温呈Ω型分布,且随着海拔高度的增加,增温幅度逐渐加大,最大增温达2.0℃—2.2℃.     

中国小冰期区域气候演化研究

在我国不同地区通过不同代用资料如冰芯、树轮、孢粉、湖泊沉积物、历史文献记录等恢复的小冰期气候的基础上, 分析总结了小冰期我国气候演化的区域分异特征,并探讨其原因机制,力图为未来气候变化提供参考。     

Palaeoclimate simulation of Little Ice Age

Promotedbytheinternationalresearch projectsofPAGESandCLIVAR ,thestudiesonclimaticandenvironmentalchangesinthepast 2 0 0 0yearshavedrawntheattentionofgeologistsandpalaeoclimato logistsallovertheworld[1,2 ] .AmongthemthecoldeventoftheLittleIceAge (LIA)isparticularlythemostattractiveone[3～ 10 ] ,whichisthenearesttypicalcoldperiodintheglobalrangefrommodernage ,andhadaprofoundimpactuponhumansociety[11] .Addi tionally ,moreknowledgeaboutthecauseoforiginanddynamicmechanismofLIAmayenrichandpe…     

中国东部季风区小冰期干湿变化及影响机制

通过对已发表的中国东部季风区小冰期气候重建结果和全球不同气候模式的对比分析,探讨我国季风区小冰期的气候干湿响应模式.本文认为:中国季风区小冰期的干湿变化受到西伯利亚冷高压的影响,华北和东北受影响最大,而中部和南部季风区变化机制更为复杂;我国季风区的小冰期存在以秦岭淮河(约34°N)为大致分界的北部冷干和南部冷湿模式,这种模式在千年或更长的时间尺度上的存在性,需要更多高分辨率的古气候资料以及模拟数据进行探讨.     

近3000年来中国气候变化及对社会经济发展的影响综述

本文对近3000年来气候变化以及重大自然灾害发生的规律性，尤其是近五百年的小冰期的气候特点进行了总结和分析，并对气候变化对社会经济影响的研究成果加以概括，在此基础上提出了自己的观点和设想，以期对人类的生产生活产生一定的指导意义．     

长沙地区太阳能水源热泵系统冬季工况模拟

为了研究太阳能水源热泵系统供热工况下的运行特性,引入了可再生能源建筑应用工程评价标准中相关方法.通过对长沙地区冬季工况模拟研究和分析,得到太阳能集热系统和水源热泵系统在不同工况下的制热效率.研究结果表明,在引入太阳能后避免了水源热泵机组冬季长时间运行使制热性能下降并频繁进入保护工况,且当蒸发器进口水温为22℃附近时,机组COP较10℃提高了9.13%,达到最优值.     

降雨对贾鲁河水质影响的模拟研究

根据降雨对河水的污染有明显改善作用的事实,以2003年7～8月问贾鲁河水质实际监测值为依据,建立了降雨对贾鲁河水质影响的模型．结果表明：降雨对河流有机污染物稀释和降解作用的模拟计算值与实际监测值基本吻合,故该模型能较好地预测降雨对贾鲁河水质的改善作用。     

塑料动态挤出填充过程的数值模拟研究

利用ANSYS软件对受入口处周期性振动压力驱动的塑料熔体在"L"形异型材挤出口模内的填充过程进行了三维等温数值模拟。研究了流场压力和速度随入口压力振动的变化规律,分析了压力振动对塑料熔体流动稳定性的影响。结果表明:流场压力和速度都随入口压力的振动而振动,但振动强度随流程增加而减弱,只要选择适当的振动参数和口模长度,就可以使出口流场稳定,以保证塑料制件的质量。     

不同冷却速度对In凝固过程的影响的模拟研究

采用分子动力学方法对In在相同初始状态下以不同速度冷却的凝固过程进行了模拟研究。以2.56×1013,2.56×1012Ks的速度的冷却,得到非晶态结构;以2.56×1011Ks的速度冷却,发生了明显晶化现象,玻璃转变温度约为300K。这一结果,对于如何正确选择冷却速度获得优良材料性能,将具有实际意义。     

初始条件对Ga冷凝过程影响的模拟研究

对液态金属快速凝固过程进行了分子动力学模拟研究.以1000个液态纯金属Ga原子的系统为例,深入考察了微观结构组态的变化.采用H-A键型指数法分析该过程中各种键的变化情况.发现在其微观结构的转变过程中,与二十面体及其缺陷结构密切相关的1551键型起着重要的作用,同时,还发现不同的初始平衡态对其固态微结构有明显的影响,这-结果对于深入理解液-固微结构之间的转变关系,具有一定的理论和实际意义.     

燃气-太阳能空调系统采暖季的运行模拟及分析

提出太阳能集热器阵与直燃型吸收式冷温水机联合采暖系统,并建立系统逐时运行的数学模型.然后以东华大学3,4号学院楼空调系统的节能改造方案为应用实例,编写计算机程序进行数值模拟.模拟结果揭示了该改造系统的运行情况、影响系统运行的因素.该结果对学院楼现有空调系统的改造工作具有指导意义,对类似工程也具有参考价值.     

太阳辐射试验室建筑保温对空调负荷和能耗影响研究

根据某大型太阳辐射试验室的设计条件,采用计算机数值模拟方法,对建筑保温性能与空调负荷和能耗的关系进行分析,研究结果表明,由于试验灯具的发热量很大,即使在冬季工况,需要的供冷量仍然较大,而需要的加热量较小,建筑保温性能增强会使空调加热能耗减少,但却会使空调冷却能耗增加,因此盲目增加保温厚度,不仅会使建筑保温的一次投资增加,而且会使空调总能耗增加.对于所研究对象,当建筑围护结构聚氨酯泡沫保温层的厚度大于100mm时,保温层厚度增加会使空调总能耗增加,保温层的合理厚度为100mm.这些研究结果为同类建筑保温设计提供了重要依据.