科技项目完成情况的模糊综合评价研究

对照科技项目合同的预定目标,提出了一种评判科技项目完成情况的模糊综合评价方法. 对定量指标,提出的改进对比打分公式(contrast evaluation formula, CEF) 不仅能体现超额工作的贡献,同时能够通过指标的互补性适度地体现额外贡献. 本文还提出了指标赋权的动态调整方法以解决评价过程中遇到的指标不完整问题. 通过对实际科研项目的评价,验证了该方法的有效性.     

基于GA-Fuzzy的混沌系统辨识研究

提出用遗传算法优化的Takagi-Sugeno-Kang(TSK)模糊模型对未知或不确定的混沌动力学系统进行辨识。在辨识未知混沌系统的TSK模型过程中，只需利用未知混沌系统的输出时间序列。首先，采用模糊聚类分析方法从训练数据建立其初始TSK模糊模型。然后采用实数编码的遗传算法对初始模型进行优化设计。同时为防止破坏模糊规则的语义属性，对遗传搜索空间采取了适当的限制。用辨识模型重建吸引子方法定性地评价辨识模型，通过计算辨识模型的Lyapunov指数定量地评价辨识模型的性能。仿真结果表明，该辨识模型能很好地逼近原混沌动力学系统，准确地体现原混沌系统的动力学特性。     

科技项目模糊综合评价方法研究

在分析传统评价方法的基础上,综合主观评价与客观评价,提出一种主客观评价相结合、模糊技术与决策方法相结合的组合赋权模糊综合评价方法,该方法以对评价指标值进行模糊化、归一化和无量纲化预处理为前提,在融合经典方法的基础上,对项目实际完成情况进行定量分析,同时结合专家组的定性评价进行综合评判,既可避免人为的主观片面性,又能对专家意见给予足够的重视,并能对评价过程中遇到的信息的不完备性和不确定性做出相应的处理.该方法应用于国家863科技项目信息管理与评价实验系统(CSHWES),评价结果不仅体现了项目的实际完成情况,而且考虑了单个项目的完成情况在同类项目中所处的水平,使评价结果更加客观、公正、合理.     

铁路线路方案模糊优化模型的改进研究

针对铁路线路方案优选的传统方法在各方案经济指标出现交叉时不易确定最优方案 ,实用化模型中存在对含多个低级定量指标的定性指标的算法不完善、定性指标的取舍方法不严谨等缺陷 ,改进了原模型和相应软件 ,并给出方案模糊优化客观评判分值表以提供更客观全面的评判结论 .     

投影寻踪模型在水资源工程方案优选中的应用

提出了水资源工程方案优选的投影寻踪(PP)模型的新方法。利用PP模型可把方案多维评价指标值综合成一维投影值,投影值越大表示该方案优选,根据投影值的大小就可对方案集进行优选。采用实码加速遗传算法进行PP建模,简化了投影寻踪技术的实现过程,克服了目前投影寻踪技术计算复杂、编程实现困难的缺点,为投影寻踪技术在水资源系统工程中的广泛应用提供了新的有力工具。应用实例的结果说明,直接由样本数据驱动的PP模型用于水资源工程方案优选简便可行,PP模型的投影值比较分散、易于决策,适用性和可操作性强,不需确定评价指标的权重,优选结果较为客观。     

数据包络分析模型在项目评价中的应用

本文应用数据包络分析模型对区域项目发展选优进行了综合评价比较研究, 优选了重大项目作为区域经济技术发展的启动点和技术开发改造的先行项目, 对于寻求区域经济技术发展的重点具有重要的实践指导意义, 文中先简要介绍了数据包络分析方法、模型体系以及选用背景, 建立了评价指标集, 并应用于江西省星子县经济技术发展战略研究中对43个重点项目(已先期从各行业中优选出来)进行了综合评价, 并就不同模型所得结果进行了分析比较, 此外还与其他模糊评价法的评价结果进行了分析, 最后优选出10个重大项目, 得到了较好结果, 现已全部实施, 实施结果表明十大项目经济效益颇佳, 有的生态效益较好, 受到当地政府的赞扬。     

基于二元语义的项目成功度群体综合评价方法

成功度评价是项目后评价中一种常用的定性综合评价方法.本文采用二元语义来对语言信息进行表示和运算,提出了一种对项目总成功度进行定量评价的方法.首先将专家给出的语言评价信息用二元语义的形式来表示,然后计算专家在各指标上的权重,建立基于最小二乘法的优化模型,对专家评价意见进行集结,得到各指标成功度和权重的群体评价结果.在此基础上,采用拓展的二元语义几何加权平均算子对群体评价信息进行集成,得到二元语义形式的项目成功度综合评价结果.本文提出的方法可有效避免语言评价信息集结和运算中出现的信息损失和扭曲,可以对项目的综合成功度等级作出精确的评定.最后给出了一个算例.     

铁路线路设计方案综合优选决策系统的研究

介绍了基于多目标模糊综合优选模型的铁路线路设计方案综合优选决策系统软件的研制与开发过程，给出了其应用算例，较好地解决了方法在各方案定量与定性指标出现交叉时难于评优的问题。     

基于粒子群改进算法的信息系统外包组合决策模型

针对外包项目优选决策涉及到成本和效益这两类相互冲突的评价准则,提出了多准则妥协解排序法与投影寻踪模型相结合的组合决策模型,进行外包项目的优先排序.鉴于该模型求解属复杂非线性优化问题,常规方法难以直接处理,建立了微粒群改进算法,进行全局寻优.决策过程中去掉了主观确定权重的步骤,避免了人为因素的干扰,实现了完全由数据驱动的外包项目选择.通过实例证明了模型和算法的有效性和实用性.     

考虑指标均衡度影响和专家人数不一致因素的信息系统综合评价模型

提出一个用于信息系统综合评价的数学模型，该模型能够适应对各评价对象进行评价的专家数目不一致，或参与评价某对象各指标的专家数目不一致的情况；同时，模型中引入了指标均衡度概念，使各指标间的协调、均衡程度在评价过程中得到反映；在模型中还包括了定量、定性指标，以及成本型、效益型和区间型等多种指标类型的处理，从而使该模型具有较大的通用性。     

铁路线路方案模糊优化模型及其应用研究

铁路线路方案优选的传统方法在各方案经济指标差异不大 ,而定性指标出现交叉、各有所长时 ,不易确定最优方案 .本文将方案优选视为多目标决策系统模糊优化问题 ,建立了系统模糊优化模型 ,并结合实例编制了相应的应用软件 .     

KNOWLEDGE PROCESS ANALYSIS： FRAMEWORK AND EXPERIENCE

We present a step-by-step approach for constructing a framework for knowledge process analysis （KPA）. We intend to apply this framework to the analysis of own research projects in an exploratory way and elaborate it through the accumulation of case studies. This study is based on a methodology consisting of knowledge process modeling, primitives synthesis, and reflective verification. We describe details of the methodology and present the results of case studies： a novel methodology, a practical work guide, and a tool for KPA; insights for improving future research projects and education; and the integration of existing knowledge creation theories.     

Enhancing Collaborative Learning in a Blended Learning Environment: Applying a Process Planning Model

The research reported here was undertaken in a blended learning environment where contact tuition is “blended” with computer-supported (online) learning. The context is a developing country (South Africa). After completion of two full cycles of an action inquiry the planning for the third cycle was undertaken according to an existing process planning model which was originally developed for the design and planning of team-based action learning and action research (ALAR) projects. The illustration of the application of the model focuses on the aspect of student collaboration in a blended learning environment and shows how the original process planning model was adapted and applied during the re-planning phase of the project. The final deliverable is a set of action plans for future collaborative learning that could strengthen student-centred learning experiences in a context which still bears the scars of an unfortunate segregated past.     

A Reputation Evaluating Model for Non-Government-Run Scientific Research and Technical Service Organizations

This paper presents a reputation evaluating model for non-government-run scientific research and technical service organizations of China. The model is composed of quantitative and qualitative factors, fuzzy comment set and weight vector. The fuzzy judgement technique is applied in the model. The application of the model is also demonstrated in the paper.     

The Role of Action Research (AR) in Environmental Research: Learning from a Local Organic Food and Farming Research Project

We expand on the FMA model of inquiry elucidated by Checkland and Holwell (Syst Pract Act Res 11:9, 1998) and identify three kinds of research: interactive Action Research (AR), extractive participatory research, and traditional science, that were integrated into an interdisciplinary agro-environmental research project involving researchers from eight countries around the Baltic Sea. The research project held the goal of creating scientific understanding of the ecological, economic and social effects of the sustainable development of local food systems, while also having the explicit goal of implementing change in the studied systems. Based on our experience working as action researchers in the project, we highlight the role that normative goals and facilitation process competence play in complex interdisciplinary research projects. Our reflections focus on project design, including the relation between AR and other kinds of research when employed in a single project, and includes reflections on preconditions for stakeholder participation in AR projects.     

组织文化演变的定性模拟分析

介绍了组织文化的研究现状,并提出使用定性模拟方法来模拟复杂环境下组织文化的演变.作者以定量研究派得出的结果作为模型建立的依据,根据denison的思想,用20个因素作为模型变量,并将其分为三个层次,并通过定性推理技术建立了组织丈化研究的定性模拟模型,最后提供了模拟结果.     

新技术商业化的风险要素及其作用机理: 基于社会技术系统理论的实证研究

风险管理对新技术商业化项目的成长具有积极的影响, 但现有研究在深入考察企业新技术商业化活动面临的风险要素、 风险结构及其作用机理方面还存在不足. 社会技术系统理论被用来分析社会系统风险、技术系统风险与管理风险要素, 及其对企业新技术商业化项目绩效的影响. 应用结构方程模型进行实证研究, 结果表明: 1)社会子系统风险对技术子系统风险具有显著的正向影响; 2)技术子系统的风险增加会使项目管理的风险增加; 3)社会子系统风险对项目管理风险具有正向影响, 但不显著; 4)新技术商业化项目管理的风险越高, 项目成长的过程绩效就越低; 5)过程绩效对产品绩效具有显著正向影响.     

信息系统项目四元评价模型及其准确度研究

根据从定性到定量综合集成方法论理论 ,将改进的德尔菲、层次分析、灰色关联及模糊综合评价集成 ,提出了评价信息系统项目的四元评价模型 ,介绍了四元模型的工作步骤并对其准确度进行了分析和验证 .     

Meta-Action Research on a Leadership Development Program: A Process Model for Life-long Learning

Our purpose in this paper is to contribute to the field of systemic practice by sharing a process of professional learning based on meta-action research. The process emerged as we engaged with evaluation data from a leadership development program (LDP). The aim of this LDP had been to help leaders design their team projects on poverty reduction through action research methods in six African countries. As facilitators of the program we discuss our experiential learning based on critical reflection. We explain how meta-action research can transform understandings of ways to improve professional practice in future applications. We present three process models: (1) a model of reflection on action, (2) a meta-action research model, and (3) a model for lifelong learning through meta-action research. These models may be of benefit and interest to readers who facilitate systemic practice and action research in education, higher education, communities, industry and government.