土地利用演变元胞自动机仿真系统设计与实现

元胞自动机模型是土地利用演变模拟与预测的重要工具.文章基于组件式GIS平台SuperMap Objects,利用微软C#语言构建了一套土地利用演变元胞自动机模型仿真系统:LUCC-CA,用于城市土地利用演变的模拟与预测分析.该软件主要包括简单的数据预处理、模型数据输入、各种模型参数设定、模型运行控制、结果精度评价以及模型仿真结果输出等几部分功能.以广东省广州市花都区为例,利用LUCC-CA系统对花都区1995～2005年土地利用演变模拟进行了实证研究.通过精度分析得出2005年模拟结果与该年实际土地利用现状的平均符合度为75.23%.结果表明该模型系统能够较好地反应区域土地利用演变动态,可为相关研究提供参考.     

黄河流域的土地利用和土地覆盖变化

应用遥感技术与地理信息系统 GIS技术进行土地利用变化监测 ,具有快速、客观的特点。对 L ANDSAT TM图像进行解译判读 ,获取反映黄河流域 2 0世纪 80年代末期到 90年代末期土地利用和覆盖情况的 1:10万比例尺的土地利用数据。通过应用土地利用动态度模型、土地利用程度时空演变模型、土地利用类型转移模型和土地利用重心模型 ,对黄河流域近 10年的土地利用和覆盖变化进行了研究。研究结果表明 :10年来黄河流域草地、林地面积减少 ,而耕地、建设用地、未利用地面积增加 ,而人类活动是黄河流域土地利用和覆盖变化的主导因子     

供料量对离心机中心区域流场影响的DSMC模拟

为研究离心机中心区域流动状况,采用了直接模拟Monte-Carlo方法(DSMC)对其进行模拟。离心机参数来自于Iguassu模型,在轴对称条件下,计算区域的径向两个边界是旋转壁面,在轴向两个边界上是根据刚体平衡解设定的气体入流。通过模拟计算,验证了在稀薄气体条件下,离心机内气体旋转运动的热力学平衡状态是等温刚体运动。比较了在相同供料量不同供料速度情况下的离心机内流场,结果表明:离心机内最高温度和径向最大速度和供料速度有关,而供料量对离心机轴向速度分布有着很大影响。     

A Design and Implementation of Multicrypt Solution for DVB Receiver

Conditional Access (CA) System is the essential basis of a Pay-TV System to charge the subscribers. This paper first introduces the standards and mechanisms for a Set-Top-Box(STB)to receive programs scrambled by different CA systems. Then, according to DVB multicrypt solution, a design in detail for such a DVB receiver, i.e. STB is presented. Decoder manufacturers provide STBs with the standard DVB common interface and CA system providers provide detachable CA modules to plug into the STBs through Common Interface. This solution allows broadcasters and customers to change CA system without replacing the STB. Such a design has been implemented in a decoder based on LSI SC2000, and is proved to be an open and secure solution for conditional access.     

Coupled Faults Analysis and Evaluation M ethods Based on Cellular Automata

The reliability analysis of coupled faults may be difficult due to its properties of multiple and intermittent. The challenge is to find the rule and depict of the cross-linking relationship by mathematical model. The method in this study was developed around the Cellular Automata（ CA） with a novel neighborhood definition and the structure of network model to build the failure cellular automata. And the simulation of the coupled faults influence combined with the importance evaluation method of network node to find the most critical faults which were beneficial to improve the design,without consuming massive computational overhead.     

The climate influence of anthropogenic land-use changes on near-surface wind energy potential in China

There is considerable interest in the potential impact of climate change on wind energy in China. The climate change of near-surface wind energy potential in China under the background of global warming and its association with anthropogenic land-use changes are investigated by calculating the difference in surface wind speeds between the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data and the observations since the reanalysis dataset contains the influence of large-scale climate changes due to greenhouse gases, it is less sensitive to regional surface processes associated with land types. The surface wind data in this study consist of long-term observations from 604 Chinese Roution Meteorological Stations and the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1960-1999. The results suggest that the observed mean wind speeds significantly weakened and the near-surface wind power trended downward due to urbanization and other land-use changes in the last 40 years. The mean wind energy weakened by -3.84 W·m^-2 per decade due to the influence of anthropogenic land-use change, which is close to the observed climate change （-4.51 W·m^-2/10 a）.     

Pre-assessment on the loss and impact caused by large-scale flood disasters

Through intensive studies, we have established an index system for evaluating the loss and impact caused by large-scale flood disasters, and constructed a methodological system for pre-assessing the loss and impact caused by large-scale flood disasters. Through numerical simulation, submerged characteristics of large-scale flood can be determined. According to the characteristics of spatial corresponding distribution between land-use types and types of disaster-affecting subjects, we have realized spatialization for social and economic statistic data, and have completed spatialization evaluation on the loss and social impact caused by large-scale flood disasters using the spatial analytical function of GIS software. It is possible that large-scale flood can occur in the lower Yellow River. Flood management requires pre-assessment on the loss and impact caused by flood disasters. Nevertheless, there is no appropriate pre-assessment method for the lower Yellow River at present. By imitating the flood happened in Yuanyang, the north bank of the lower reach of Yellow River in 1958, we did pre-assessment on the loss and social impact caused by the overflow flood. We found that this method can be used to predict the types, quantity and spatial distribution of economic loss caused by large-scale flood disasters. This method can determine population affected by disasters and degree and spatial distribution of disasters. Indirect loss can be predicted as well using this method.In general this method can meet theneeds of regions affected by flood for planning and making decisions in fighting floods and reducing loss.     

Modelling disease outbreaks in realistic urban social networks

Most mathematical models for the spread of disease use differential equations based on uniform mixing assumptions or ad hoc models for the contact process. Here we explore the use of dynamic bipartite graphs to model the physical contact patterns that result from movements of individuals between specific locations. The graphs are generated by large-scale individual-based urban traffic simulations built on actual census, land-use and population-mobility data. We find that the contact network among people is a strongly connected small-world-like graph with a well-defined scale for the degree distribution. However, the locations graph is scale-free, which allows highly efficient outbreak detection by placing sensors in the hubs of the locations network. Within this large-scale simulation framework, we then analyse the relative merits of several proposed mitigation strategies for smallpox spread. Our results suggest that outbreaks can be contained by a strategy of targeted vaccination combined with early detection without resorting to mass vaccination of a population.     

自适应多速率交互式多模型算法

为提高交互式多模型算法性能，在交互式多模型算法的框架下引入了“当前”统计模型和多速率常速模型，开发了自适应多速率交互式多模型算法．Monte Carlo仿真结果表明，自适应多速率交互式多模型算法在减少计算量的同时，跟踪滤波效果优于采用常速和常加速模型的标准交互式多模型算法．     

基于模型组件技术的通用离散事件动态系统仿真模型

针对传统离散事件动态仿真软件可重用性差的缺陷，提出了基于组件技术的设计方法，给出了基于组件技术的离散事件动态系统通用的模型接口及原型实现，开发了类似Matlab的离散事件动态系统仿真环境，该仿真工具通过拖放创建模型，联线建立模型间逻辑联系，并在炼钢连铸车间物流仿真中得到了运用。该设计方法还可以推广到其他柔性制造系统的仿真应用中。     

多种流形覆盖方式耦合的数值流形法及其应用

为了更好地利用数值流形法(NMM)模拟连续和非连续问题,根据NMM数学覆盖选择的灵活性,将有限元网格作为一种数学覆盖方式生成流形覆盖系统以避免细小流形单元的出现,并提出了将单个材料体描述为一个流形单元的独立覆盖方法。运用多种覆盖方式相耦合的方法模拟了混凝土的细观拉压模型,以及一个复杂结构岩质边坡模型,模拟结果较好地再现了相应的力学变形破坏过程。多种覆盖方式的耦合使得构建的NMM模拟模型更加合理;独立覆盖方式的使用降低了构建离散体系NMM模型的复杂程度,并减少了模型中的单元数量以及不连续面上的接触数量,提高了模拟计算效率。     

Research on Stress Testing of OSPF Protocol Implementation

The stability and robustness of routing protocol implementations (RPI) in a router are becoming more and more important with the growth of Internet scale. A novel approach named stress testing is proposed to test the properties of RPI. Compared with some traditional test techniques, stress testing is remarkably necessary to inspect and analyze RPI. The test environment is proposed and the test process of OSPF RPI is illustrated by a stochastic Petri Net model with large-scale route simulation and OSPF protocol emulation. Based on this model, the integrated performance tester (IP-TEST) is designed and developed, with which we test a CISCO2600 router. With mathematical methods, we find that the computational complexity of OSPF implementation in this router is O (lnN)^4)to the number of its routing table entries. This experiment shows that this technique can inspect the stability, the computational complexity and the sealability of RPI. Furthermore, it can also be widely used with other routing protocols, such as RIP and BGP.     

A test of Snowmelt Runoff Model （SRM） for the Gongnaisi River basin in the western Tianshan Mountains, China

The Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM) is one of a very few models in the world today that requires remote sensing derived snow cover as model input. Owing to its simple data requirements and use of remote sensing to provide snow cover information, SRM is ideal for use in data sparse regions, particularly in remote and inaccessible high mountain watersheds. In order to verify the applicability of SRM in an environment of continental climate, a test of SRM is performed for the Gongnaisi River basin in the western Tianshan Mountains, the results show that two SRM average goodness-of-fit statistics for simulations, Nash-Sutcliff coeffident (R2) and volume difference (Dv), are 0.87 and 0.90%,respectively. As compared with the application results over 80 basins in 25 different countries around the world, SRM performs well in the Gongnaisi River basin. The results also show that SRM can be a validated snowmelt runoff model capable of being applied in the western Tianshan Mountains.On the basis of snowmelt runoff simulation, together with a set of simplified hypothetical climate scenarios, SRM is also used to simulate the effects of climate change on snow cover and the consecutive snowmelt runoff. For a given hypothetical temperature increase of 4℃, the snow coverage and snowmelt season shift towards earlier dates, and the snowmelt runoff, as a result, is changed significantly at the same time. The simulation results show that the snow cover is sensitive to changes of climate, especially to the increase of temperature, the major effect of climate change will be a time shifting of snowmelt runoff to early spring months, resulting in a redistribution of seasonally runoff throughout the whole snowmelt season.     

1998-2016年全球LUCC研究进展与热点分析

以Web of Science为数据源,运用文献计量方法与可视化分析工具,从文献时间分布、研究机构、科学领域分布、文献作者和研究热点等维度,对1998-2016年全球土地利用/覆盖变化(LUCC)研究进展进行数据挖掘.研究结果表明:目前LUCC研究日益成熟,文献逐年稳定增长,发展前景依然广阔;机构和作者合作网络还相对松散,LUCC全球合作有待进一步加强;LUCC研究学科交叉性强,综合集成了环境科学、生态学、地理学等多个自然与社会学科;LUCC研究热点众多,气候变化、生态系统、地表景观、城镇化、森林砍伐等热点受到高度关注;综合性研究是未来LUCC的发展趋势,体现在多学科、多时空、多尺度、多方法的交叉.未来LUCC要在数据标准化、大尺度遥感图像融合、历史地图资料不准确性与当代资料整合,以及LUCC全球分类体系和LUCC成果应用等方面加强研究.     

Influence of the carbon cycle on the attribution of responsibility for climate change

The carbon cycle is one of the fundamental climate change issues.Its long-term evolution largely affects the amplitude and trend of human-induced climate change,as well as the formulation and implementation of emission reduction policy and technology for stabilizing the atmospheric CO2concentration.Two earth system models incorporating the global carbon cycle,the Community Earth System Model and the Beijing Normal University-Earth System Model,were used to investigate the effect of the carbon cycle on the attribution of the historical responsibility for climate change.The simulations show that when compared with the criterion based on cumulative emissions,the developed(developing)countries’responsibility is reduced(increased)by 6%–10%using atmospheric CO2concentration as the criterion.This discrepancy is attributed to the fact that the developed world contributed approximately61%–68%(61%–64%)to the change in global oceanic(terrestrial)carbon sequestration for the period from 1850 to2005,whereas the developing world contributed approximately 32%–49%(36%–39%).Under a developed world emissions scenario,the relatively larger uptake of global carbon sinks reduced the developed countries’responsibility for carbon emissions but increased their responsibility for global ocean acidification(68%).In addition,the large emissions from the developed world reduced the efficiency of the global carbon sinks,which may affect the long-term carbon sequestration and exacerbate global warming in the future.Therefore,it is necessary to further consider the interaction between carbon emissions and the carbon cycle when formulating emission reduction policy.     

密云水库流域非点源模型系统

以密云水库流域为研究背景,在对流域内各类污染源调查的基础上,集成应用流域数字高程模型(DEM)、土地利用、土壤、气象、水文与水质、农业管理措施等数据,建立了基于SW AT模型的密云水库流域非点源模型系统,并采用长系列实测数据对模型系统进行了参数率定和模型验证。结果表明,无论是潮河还是白河流域,径流和泥沙的模拟结果较好,决定系数(r2)和N ash模拟效率系数均达到了0.77以上;潮河流域入库总氮、总磷负荷的模拟结果要优于白河流域。研究表明,基于SW AT模型构建的非点源模型系统完全能应用于密云水库入库的非点源污染负荷模拟和预测。     

基于元胞自动机模型的城市空间变化模拟研究进展

元胞自动机(CA)是一种时间、空间、状态都离散,空间的相互作用及时间上的因果关系皆局部的网格动力学模型,其“自下而上”的研究思路,强大的复杂计算功能、固有的平行计算能力、高度动态以及具有空间概念等特征,使得它在模拟空间复杂系统的时空动态演变方面具有很强的能力.在城市空间动态变化的模拟研究方面,CA模型已应用到除非洲、南极洲的所有大洲的城市模拟研究当中.CA模型和G IS的集成,一方面增强G IS的空间模型运算及分析能力,另一方面,G IS提供的强大空间处理能力可以为CA模型准备数据和定义有效的元胞转换规则以及对模拟结果进行可视化.同时CA模型还可以与神经网络、主成分分析、遗传算法、模糊逻辑以及其他研究方法相结合,以增强其在城市空间变化模拟研究方面的能力.将CA与MAS技术相结合,建立一个能够模拟多个不同参与因子(自然系统)、不同决策者(人文系统)共同影响下的城市发展模型,以此来模拟与预测城市发展的真实状况,将是CA模型在城市空间变化模拟与预测研究中的未来发展趋势.     

Scenario simulation and forecast of land use/cover in northern China

Modeling land use/cover scenario changes and its potential impacts on structure and functions of ecosystem in typical regions are helpful to understanding the interactive mechanism between land use/cover system and ecosystem. Based on the analysis of the existing land use/cover simulation and forecast models, a land use/cover scenario dynamics model by the integration of System Dynamics （SD） model, Back Propagation Neural Network （BPNN） and Cellular Automata （CA） model is developed with land use/cover scenario changes in northern China in the next 30 years and simulated in this paper. The model is to simulate the land use/cover scenario demands by using a SD model at first, and then allocating the land use scenario patterns at the local scale with the considerations of land use/cover suitability, inheritance ability and neighborhood effect by using BPNN-CA model to satisfy the balance between land use/cover scenario demands and supplies. It integrates the advantages of SD, BPNN and CA. Macro-driving factors and the micro-spatial pattern are also fully taken into account. The BPNN simplifies the identification of the factors＇ weights used in CA model and improves the reliability of the simulation results. The simulation accuracy of the model developed in this paper was found to be about 74%. It suggests that the model has the ability to reflect the complexity of land use/cover system at different scales to some extent and it is a useful tool for assessing the potential impacts of land use system on ecosystem. The simulated results also indicate that the urban land, water area and forest will increase significantly, and farmland and unable land will decrease gradually. Obvious land use/cover changes will take place in the farming-pastoral zone and the southeast area of northern China.     

基于随机接入的JTIDS抗毁性动态接入算法

基于随机理论提出了一种能够适应JTIDS的节点数动态变化的随机接入算法. 基于随机理论,分析和比较了竞争接入算法和随机接入算法的抗毁性能,并进行了理论验证;基于OPNET建立了竞争接入算法和随机接入算法的仿真模型,通过仿真验证理论分析的合理性. 对随机接入算法的抗毁性能进行了仿真,仿真结果表明,算法能够在不增加额外控制信息的情况下,动态地适应战场环境下网络拓扑结构的变化,提高了接入的可靠性,同时保证了时效性.